PROBLEM 1
Day BlueBerry Muffins Cinnamon Buns Cupcakes
1 30 18 45
2 34 17 26
3 32 19 27
4 34 19 23
5 35 22 22
6 30 23 48
7 34 23 29
8 36 25 20
9 29 24 14
10 31 26 18
11 35 27 47
12 31 28 26
13 37 29 27
14 34 31 24
15 33 33 22
16 (forecast) 33 35 47
Because it is a steady series, the forecast for blueberry muffins is 33, the same as it was the day before. The predicted
price for cinnamon buns is 35, which is 2 more than the previous day and indicates an increasing tendency. Finally, a
cyclical trend is indicated by the anticipated 47 cupcakes.
2 Making use of sales data demonstrates that supply and demand are typically equal.
PROBLEM 2
A Month Sales (000 units)
February 19
March 18
April 15
May 20
June 18
July 22
August 20
B
1) 20
Period Actual Forecast
February 19
March 18
April 15
May 20
June 18
July 22 18
August 20 18.6
September x 19
2)19
3) 20.4
=.6(20)+.3(22)+.1(18)
20.4
a = 0.2
Period Actual Forecast
February 19
March 18 19
April 15 19
May 20 19
June 18 19
July 22 19
August 20 19
September x 19
4) 19
Slope = 0.5000
Intercept = 16.857142857143
Period Actual Forecast
February 1 19 17.3571429
March 2 18 17.8571429
April 3 15 18.3571429
May 4 20 18.8571429
June 5 18 19.3571429
July 6 22 19.8571429
August 7 20 20.3571429
September 8 20.8571429
5) 20.86
C
This is where the moving average method shines because it evens out
fluctuations in sales. This demonstrates the general tendency. For the
forecasts to be correct, it is also simple to comprehend and update using
the fresh sales data.
D
Upon utilizing the sales compared to the demand presumes that a
business bases its forecast on its previous sales. With the anticipation,
the future market needs this and probably earns that the business will
continue to use historical data for its production.
PROBLEM 5
Ft = 80+15t
Year Forecast (000 bottles)
1 95
2 110
3 125
4 140
5 155
6 170
A
The annual sales are increasing by 15,000 bottles a year
B Year 6 = 170,000 bottles
PROBLEM 8
Week Passengers
1 405
2 410
3 420
4 415
5 412
6 420
7 424
8 433
9 438
10 440
11 446
12 451
13 455
14 464
15 466
16 474
17 476
18 482
A
Because the averaging technique ignores trends, it might not be appropriate. Based on the available
statistics, an increasing trend can be observed, indicating a progressive increase in the number of
passengers over time. By using an average approach, it might underestimate the number of passengers in
the future because it would not account for this growing trend.
Slope = 3.7030
Intercept = 401.333333
Week Actual
1 405 405.036364
2 410 408.739394
3 420 412.442424
4 415 416.145455
5 412 419.848485
6 420 423.551515
7 424 427.254545
8 433 430.957576
9 438 434.660606
10 440 438.363636
11 446 442.066667
12 451 445.769697
13 455 449.472727
14 464 453.175758
15 466 456.878788
16 474 460.581818
17 476 464.284848
18 482 467.987879
19 471.690909
20 475.393939
21 479.09697
B Week Forecast
19 471.69
20 475.39
21 479.1
Problem 10
Period Actual
1 210
2 224
3 229
4 240
5 255
6 265
7 272
8 285
9 294
10
a = 0.5
b = 0.4
Period Actual S T TAF
1 210
2 224
3 229
4 240
5 255 252.5 100 250
6 265 308.75 101 352.5
7 272 340.875 83.5 409.75
8 285 354.6875 55.95 424.375
9 294 352.31875 28.075 410.6375
10 190.2 4.7475 380.39375
Demand can be plotted over four periods, and the results show that a trend-adjusted exponential smoothing model works well for
forecasting future demand. Based on a change of 30 for each of the three periods from 1 to 4, the initial estimate of trend is based on an
average of plus 10 units.