PROBABILITY
DEF of probability:
It is a branch of mathematics that deals with quantifying
uncertainty. In statistics, it provides the foundation for making
inferences about populations based on sample data.
Probability Basics:
Experiment: An action or process that leads to one or more
outcomes.
Sample Space (S): The set of all possible outcomes of an
experiment.
Event (E): A specific outcome or a group of outcomes from the
sample [Link] (P): A measure of the likelihood that an
event will occur, ranging from 0 (impossible) to 1 (certain).
P(E)= Number of favorable outcomes
______________________________
Total number of outcomes
Types of Probability:
Theoretical Probability: Based on reasoning and mathematical
principles (e.g., flipping a fair coin).
Experimental Probability: Based on actual experiments or
historical data (e.g., rolling dice multiple times).
Subjective Probability: Based on personal judgment or experience.
Rules of Probability:
[Link] Rule: For mutually exclusive events, P(A∪B)
=P(A)+P(B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B)P(A∪B)=P(A)+P(B).
[Link] Rule: For independent events, P(A∩B)
=P(A)×P(A)P(B)
[Link] Probability: The probability of an event occurring
given that another event has already occurred.
P(A/B)=
P(A∩B)
__________________________
P(B)
Applications in Statistics:
• Inferential Statistics: Using probability to make inferences
about a population based on sample data. This includes
hypothesis testing and confidence intervals.
• Probability Distributions: Functions that describe how
probabilities are distributed over values. Common
distributions include:
• Normal Distribution: Symmetrical, bell-shaped
distribution characterized by its mean and standard
deviation.
• Binomial Distribution: Represents the number of
successes in a fixed number of trials, with two possible
outcomes.
• Poisson Distribution: Models the number of events
occurring in a fixed interval of time or space.
EXAMPLES
1. Coin Tossing
• Scenario: Flipping a fair coin.
• Probability Calculation: The sample space is {Heads,
Tails}. The probability of getting Heads (or Tails) is
P(Heads)=1/2, P(Tails)=1/2
[Link] a Die
• Scenario: Rolling a fair six-sided die.
• Probability Calculation: The sample space is {1, 2, 3, 4,
5, 6}. The probability of rolling a specific number, say a 4,
is: P (4) =1/6
3. Drawing Cards from a Deck
Scenario: Drawing one card from a standard 52-card deck .
Probability Calculation: The probability of drawing an Ace
is: P(Ace)=4/52=1/13
NON-PROBABILITY
DEF:
is a method of selecting individuals from a population where the
selection is not based on randomization. Unlike probability sampling,
where each member of the population has a known, non-zero chance of
being selected.
Types of Non-Probability Sampling:
• Convenience Sampling:
• Involves selecting individuals who are easiest to reach or
sample.
• Example: Surveying people at a mall because they are readily
available.
• Judgmental or Purposive Sampling:
• The researcher uses their judgment to select participants who
meet certain criteria or have specific characteristics.
• Example: Interviewing experts in a field for a specialized study.
• Snowball Sampling:
• Existing study subjects recruit future subjects from among
their acquaintances.
• Useful for populations that are hard to reach, such as specific
subcultures or individuals with rare characteristics.
• Example: Finding participants for a study on rare diseases
through support groups.
• Quota Sampling:
• Researchers ensure equal representation of various
subgroups within the sample, but selection within those
groups is non-random.
• Example: Surveying a fixed number of males and females but
choosing them based on convenience
Advantages of Non-Probability Sampling
• Cost-Effective: Often cheaper and quicker than probability
sampling methods.
• Easy to Implement: Can be simpler to conduct, especially
in exploratory research.
• Useful in Qualitative Research: Often used in qualitative
studies where in-depth understanding is more important
than statistical representativeness.
SOURCE: Khan Academy, Coursera, Statistics How To