Thoreau's Contributions to Climate Change Science

Richard B. Primack, Abraham J. Miller-Rushing

The Dial: A Journal of the Ralph Waldo Emerson Society, Volume 1,

Issue 1, Fall 2024, pp. 76-96 (Article)

Published by Ralph Waldo Emerson Society

DOI: [Link]

For additional information about this article

[Link]

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 Thoreau’s Contributions to Climate
Change Science
RICHARD B. PRIMACK AND ABRAHAM J. MILLER-RUSHING

Introduction

Henry David Thoreau is best known as a transcendentalist, a pioneering

environmental philosopher, an abolitionist, and an advocate of civil
disobedience. Unbeknownst to many, Thoreau has also contributed to
our understanding of the impacts of climate change through his detailed
observations of changes in the seasons and differences in the landscape
from one year to the next. Walden contains chapters devoted to individual
seasons, and he intended to expand his later observations into “a book of
the seasons, each page of which should be written in its own season and
out-of-doors, or in its own locality wherever it may be [June 11, 1851].”1
Unfortunately, he failed to complete this project before his death in 1862
at the age of 44.
During the 1850s, in preparation for this book, Thoreau set out to
develop a calendar of nature’s seasonal changes, in the tradition of earlier
naturalists such as Alexander von Humboldt, Robert Marsham and his
family, and Gilbert White. He carefully recorded the timing of seasonal
natural phenomena, what ecologists call phenology, for hundreds of
species of plants and animals in Concord. Thoreau walked in the woods
for at least four hours every day throughout the year, observing and
writing down what plants were in flower and in leaf, what plants were
bearing fruits, and what the birds, frogs, fish, and other animals were
doing. He wanted to know exactly what day it was by making detailed
written observations of the nature he saw around him during his walks.2
As he quickly recognized, these seasonal events are exquisitely linked to
each other and are sensitive to changes in weather and climate.
Had his biological studies of the seasons been published and widely
read, Thoreau likely would have had profound impacts on modern
ecological thinking and climate change biology. Unfortunately,
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Thoreau’s natural history observations, which he organized into a series

of tables, were never published. Their existence remained known only to
a small circle of Thoreau scholars. Even his extensive observations on
climate and phenology in his journals remained largely unexamined by
ecologists until a few decades ago.3
Thoreau’s contributions to climate change biology complement his
better-known writings in philosophy. His arguments in Walden and
elsewhere for living simply, connecting with the natural world, and
taking action to advance justice and improve society are relevant to

The Dial 1.1. FALL 2024 76

climate change policy. These well-known aspects of his legacy offer
timely prescriptions for mitigating future climate change and its harmful
consequences.
In this essay, we share the results of our work showing how
Thoreau’s contributions offer new insights into climate science and
conservation. The environment of Concord that Thoreau described now
provides one of the world’s best documented examples of the impacts of
climate change on plants, animals, and whole ecosystems. Findings in
Concord have inspired similar phenological studies at sites around the
world.4 We also describe how Thoreau’s writings have helped to engage
the public in nature observation and have inspired actions to minimize
climate change and its deleterious effects.

Measuring Reality

Toward the end of his life, Thoreau extracted his observations of plants
and animals from his journals and compiled detailed tables documenting
the annual flowering times of over 300 plant species,5 the leaf out times
of trees and shrubs,6 and the arrival dates of dozens of bird species
during the years 1851-1858.7 The names of species and the dates when he
observed them provide the starting point for our decades of research.

Figure 1. Thoreau used his field notes to assemble tables showing

when plants first come into flower in Concord, such as this one from
May 13-15, 1857. Thoreau’s handwriting is black; Primack’s notes are in
blue.

77 Primack and Miller-Rushing, “Thoreau’s Contributions”

These tables were a manifestation of a “realometer,” a term Thoreau
coined in Walden. A realometer was a hoped-for instrument that would
allow him to push his way past the “mud and slush of opinion, and
prejudice and tradition, and delusion, and appearance ... to a hard
bottom.”8 In this case, his aim was to use the observations to understand
nature’s calendar of seasons.
Fortunately, in 2003, early in our climate change research, our
colleague Phil Cafaro introduced us to Brad Dean, a scholar working on
Thoreau’s unpublished manuscripts and notes. He showed us Thoreau’s
tables of observations, and we realized they offer a window into the local
ecology of eastern Massachusetts in the mid-19th century. We were
confident they could provide unique insights into the impacts of climate
change on a specific location.
We set out to repeat Thoreau’s observations—to note the same
phenomena in the same locations—so that we could compare our
observations with his and assess how Concord’s forests, wetlands, and
other areas had changed over the intervening 150 years. We knew that
the landscape of Concord had changed greatly in the time between
Thoreau’s observations and ours, from a farming community to a
forested suburb, but we also recognized that Concord, more than most
suburban areas, was extremely well-protected by public and private
conservation lands. We would have the opportunity to follow in his
footsteps and study the same species that Thoreau observed in some of
the same woodlands, pond edges, and river meadows.
Before we could dive too far into analyzing his observations,
however, we had to answer some key questions: Were Thoreau’s
observations accurate and reliable? Could we responsibly use them to
measure the reality of climate change today? In other words, how reliable
was Thoreau’s realometer in this case, and could we use it to measure
changes between his time and ours?
This is a real issue, because past writers expressed skepticism as to
the accuracy of Thoreau’s observations. John Burroughs (1837-1921), a
leading American nature essayist, sharply dismissed them in an
influential essay, writing: “His Journals are mainly a record of his mental
reactions to the passing seasons and to the landscapes he sauntered
through. His observations are frequently at fault, or wholly wide of the
mark.”9 Among other criticisms, Burroughs was skeptical of Thoreau’s
rigor and ability to identify species.
And yet, Burrough’s critique notwithstanding, Thoreau’s
observations include far more than his own “mental reactions” to nature.
Thoreau recorded daily observations during walks in the field, and later
made more complete observations in his journal including dates,
locations, weather, and people he saw. He collected plant specimens that

The Dial 1.1. FALL 2024 78

 remain in the collections at the Harvard University Herbaria. While
Thoreau did not explicitly describe his observation methods, they are
clear from his notes and observations, so it is possible to repeat his
measurements, one of the key requirements of using historical records to
detect phenological changes.10 For example, we know he systematically
sought out the earliest flowering individuals for given species. Based on
his systematic and careful records and methods, we can conclude that his
observations have scientific rigor, despite his lack of formal training in
botany or phenology.
Thoreau’s observations of first flowering, tree leafing, and migratory
bird arrival also appear to be accurate and repeatable, in part indicated
by the substantial effort he put into finding species. He wrote, "how long
some very conspicuous [flowers] may escape the most diligent walker, if
you do not chance to visit their localities the right week or fortnight”
(May 8, 1853).11 While such commentary indicates that Thoreau was a
serious observer, we can use correlation analysis as an independent
statistical way to verify the accuracy of Thoreau’s observations. Using
this approach, we found that for timing of flowering, leafing, and bird
arrival, the order in which Thoreau observed species is almost exactly
what we find today.12 For example, the wildflowers that Thoreau
recorded flowering early in the spring still flower early relative to other
wildflowers today. Based on the best evidence available, the reality of
phenology that Thoreau observed appears to be the same reality we are
seeing now, reflecting the accuracy of his observations.
We thus found that Thoreau made rigorous, accurate, and repeatable
phenology observations, a conclusion supported by other Thoreau
scholars.13 His observations would eventually provide the foundation for
an extensive body of research on the effects of climate change on the
plants and animals of New England.14 Comprising a most capacious
nineteenth-century mirror of nature, Thoreau’s observations provide the
basis for one of the world’s most valuable case studies of the ecological
effects of climate change.

Detecting the Effects of Climate Change

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Over the past two decades, we have used Thoreau’s observations to

investigate some of the most pressing questions facing ecologists today:
Is climate change already measurably affecting plants and animals? If so,
what are the implications of these changes for the protection of biological
diversity, endangered species, and the ecosystem processes on which
human society depends, such as carbon sequestration, biomass
production, hydrology, and many others?
We started by combining Thoreau’s observations and those of later
Concord naturalists, such as Alfred Hosmer, Richard Eaton, William

79 Primack and Miller-Rushing, “Thoreau’s Contributions”

Brewster and Rosita Corey, eventually intertwining these data sets with
21 years of our own observations. The resulting collection of information
created one of the world’s longest running and most complete data sets
describing plant and animal abundance and phenology in one location.15
As we began to analyze the data, we quickly identified the impacts of
climate change on the plants and animals of Concord.
For example, spring blooming wildflowers, such as marsh marigolds
and pink lady’s slipper orchids, are now flowering about 10 days earlier
than in Thoreau’s time.16 This early flowering is strongly linked to
temperature, with plants flowering much earlier in warm springs and
later in cold springs. Plants are flowering earlier now because
temperatures are warmer.

May 31

Primack &
Thoreau Hosmer
Miller−Rushing
May 22
Mean First Flowering Date

May 13

May 4

Apr 25

Apr 16

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year

Figure 2. Plants in Concord are flowering earlier now than in

Thoreau’s time. Each symbol represents the mean flowering times of 32
common wildflower species seen by Thoreau, Alfred Hosmer (a
Concord resident), and ourselves. As far as we can tell, Hosmer
intentionally repeated Thoreau’s observations and followed the same
methods. Crosses represent the mean of each observer.17

This pattern also holds true for trees, such as trembling aspens and white
birches.18 Based on the observations of 43 deciduous trees species still
present in Concord, trees in the town are leafing out about 14 days earlier
now than in Thoreau’s time.19
Concord’s birds, however, seem relatively unaffected, or far less so,
by warming temperatures.20 One-third of the species we examined,
including yellow-rumped warblers and rose-breasted grosbeaks,
consistently arrive a few days earlier in warm springs than in cold
springs. Temperature does not strongly affect the arrival dates of the

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other species, which tend to be long-distance migrants that overwinter
in Central or South America or the Caribbean. On average, the times that
birds arrive in Concord are not changing over time.
The records of Thoreau and other naturalists showed a tremendous
amount of variation in how species respond to climate change. The
phenology of trees is shifting fastest, followed by wildflowers and then
birds. But there was also variation within each group—e.g., some trees
are leafing much earlier now and others only a bit earlier, while some
birds are tracking temperatures, but most are not. We recognized that
this variation could be causing problems for species.
When climate change causes closely interacting species to shift
differently (e.g., one earlier, another not changing), long-established
synchronicities can be disrupted. These synchronicities can represent
interactions between plants and pollinators or between birds and the
insects that they feed on. Disruptions to their interactions can impact the
survival and reproduction of bird species. This phenomenon is known as
phenological mismatch, and it is possible that in Concord and elsewhere
in eastern North America birds are becoming mismatched with their
environment.21

Figure 3. Bird arrival times in the spring in Concord are responding

less strongly to a warmer climate (as indicated by the slope which is
less steep) than are the flowering times of wildflowers and the leafing
out times of trees. The lines are based on the observations of Thoreau,
ourselves, and other Concord naturalists.22

To better understand the potential for mismatches, we looked for data

to determine how the timing of insect activity in spring is changing

81 Primack and Miller-Rushing, “Thoreau’s Contributions”

 relative to plants and birds. When insects emerge in the spring, most of
them feed on plants, and when migratory birds arrive in Concord, they
feed on insects in the air, on the ground, and munching on young leaves.
Are insects shifting their phenology quickly like plants or slowly like
birds?
We couldn’t find insect phenology data from Concord, but flight
times of butterflies recorded from the Massachusetts Butterfly Club and
bee occurrence records from museums show that insects are just as
responsive to a warming climate as Concord’s wildflowers and trees, and
are much more responsive than migratory birds.23 These lines of
evidence, while not ideal, suggest that migratory birds arriving in
Concord may be out of sync with their insect food sources, threatening
their ability to find adequate food when they need it for themselves and
their nestlings. Evidence of spring mismatch for birds has emerged from
other temperate regions as well.
Thoreau understood the potential for these types of phenological
mismatches between plants and animals, stating that:

Vegetation starts when the earth’s axis is sufficiently inclined; i.e. it

follows the sun. Insects and the smaller animals (as well as many
larger) follow vegetation…worms [or caterpillars] come out of the
trees; flycatchers follow the insects and worms; birds of prey the
flycatchers; etc. …The greater or less abundance of food determines
migrations. If the buds are deceived and suffer from frost, then are
the birds. (April 23, 1852)24

This asynchrony between birds and insects is particularly troubling

because birds are threatened by many other factors too, including the loss
of habitat and global declines in the abundance of insects.25 With less
habitat and fewer insects to eat, now combined with the effects of climate
change, current declines in bird populations may continue or accelerate.
Many ecologists are assessing this risk, stimulated in part by this
remarkable example from Concord initiated by Thoreau’s observations.26

Wildflowers Mismatched with Trees

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As we continued our analysis, we found that wildflowers are less

sensitive to spring temperature than are trees.27 This may seem like a
trivial result, but it could be very bad for wildflowers.
Spring wildflowers typically leaf out and flower early in spring
before trees leaf out above them. Many wildflowers, such as bloodroot
and trillium, may acquire half of their annual energy from
photosynthesis (the process that plants use to convert sunlight to useful
energy) in the few weeks of early spring before trees leaf out.28 Emerge

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too early and it will still be winter; emerge too late and it will be too
shady under the forest canopy to generate much energy through
photosynthesis. As Thoreau says in his Journal:

How warily the flowers open! Not to be caught out too early, not
bursting into bloom with the first genial heat, but holding back as if
foreseeing the transient checks, and yielding only to the absolute
progress of the season. However, some hardy flowers which are
quite ready will open just before a cold snap. (March 30, 1853)29

As the climate continues to warm, wildflowers will have fewer days

of full sun on the forest floor before the tree leaves shade them out.
Wildflowers will have less energy with which to grow and reproduce,
and their populations could decline.
The potential for climate change-driven phenological mismatches,
such as this example in Concord, is one of the most pressing topics in
ecology and is the subject of intense study worldwide. The impacts to
some species could be severe. We are continuing to investigate the
potential for tree-wildflower mismatches through experiments. In one
experiment, we are using shade cloth hung over wildflower populations
to simulate earlier leafing times of trees and to test the impacts on
wildflower growth and reproduction. In another, we are testing if the
early leafing out of non-native invasive shrubs is reducing the sunlight
available to native wildflowers growing under them.
We are also investigating if similar mismatches occur in locations
outside of Concord, or if Concord represents an unusual situation. We
used data from 3,000 herbarium specimens (i.e., museum specimens of
dried and pressed plants with flowers and leaves) to determine
flowering times and leaf out times of trees over the past 150 years across
eastern North America from Florida into Canada.30 The vast scale of this
study was made possible by thousands of recently digitized herbarium
specimens and online weather records.
We found that deciduous trees advance their leaf out timing with
warming temperatures faster than native wildflowers do, confirming the
results of the Concord study. In a curious twist, another research group
carried out a similar investigation using citizen science observations
from across North America and found that wildflowers were more
sensitive to temperature than trees, the opposite of our results. We
recently worked with these scientists to reconcile our differing results.31
The differences in our findings are mainly due to differences in
geographic area, time period, and the type of statistical tests we used.
Such collaborations between different research groups can often lead to
novel scientific insights.

83 Primack and Miller-Rushing, “Thoreau’s Contributions”

 Our findings of tree-wildflower mismatches in Concord seemed to be
representative of broader tree-wildflower mismatches across eastern
North America. So we reached even further beyond Thoreau’s scope and
tested whether similar phenomena were happening in the temperate
forests of East Asia and Europe. We pulled together an international
team and examined thousands more herbarium specimens. We found a
common pattern across all three continents: trees and wildflowers are
active earlier now than in the past, and are active still earlier in warm
years and places.32 However, we found that eastern North American
trees are far more sensitive to temperature than trees in Europe and East
Asia, perhaps as an adaptation to the highly variable climate in eastern
North America.

Figure 4. The mismatch between trees and wildflowers first

observed in Concord has recently been investigated across (a) East Asia,
(b) Europe, and (c) eastern North America using herbarium specimens
of trees (o) and wildflowers (+).33

This series of projects points to avenues for further research and to

potential habitat management practices and policies. How do trees in
eastern North America, Europe and East Asia differ in the cues they use
to detect spring, and how will these be affected by climate change? Are
there practical management techniques, such as thinning overstory trees
or removing invasive species, that can help wildflowers deal with the
ongoing challenges of climate change? Pursuing answers to these
questions, as an extension of Thoreau’s legacy, will hopefully help us
appreciate and conserve the full range of plants in the forests around the
world that we depend upon and cherish.

Loss of Plant Species

Thoreau lived before recent rapid changes in climate, but he recognized

that Concord was changing in his own time, and that many of the species
of the past were no longer present:

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 Primitive Nature is the most interesting to me. I take infinite pains to
know all of the phenomena of the spring, for instance, thinking that I
have the entire poem, and then to my chagrin, I hear that it is but an
imperfect copy that I possess and have read, that my ancestors have
torn out many of the first leaves and grandest passages and mutilated
it in many places. (March 23, 1856)34

In the larger passage, Thoreau notes bear, deer, lynx, wolf, beaver, and
other large mammals that formerly occurred in Concord but that were
relatively absent in his day. Such species were eliminated by the
conversion of the landscape to farming and by hunting and trapping. Of
the plant species seen by Thoreau and other naturalists in the mid-19th
and early 20th century, our studies have shown that fully a quarter of
them no longer occur in Concord.35 A further third of the plant species
seen by Thoreau, above and beyond the ones no longer in Concord, have
declined substantially in abundance and now occur as scattered
individuals in just one or a few locations.
Although many species of plants have disappeared from Concord,
some taxonomic groups, like orchids and mountain mints, have been hit
particularly hard. In the mid-1900s, botanist Richard Eaton listed 21
species of orchids as being native to Concord, with one species possibly
being extirpated. We were unable to locate 14 of these species despite
intensive searching. Of those seven species that we could find, five have
been so reduced in abundance that they only persist as a single
population, often of just a few individuals.36 Thoreau noted four species
of mountain mints, which typically grow in fields and woods. His
favorite was hoary mountain mint, which had “prettily purple-spotted
flowers . . . swarming with great wasps of different kinds, and bees”
(August 10, 1856).37 Six species were present in the mid-1900s. However,
after years of searching, we have failed to find even a single individual
of any mountain mint species growing in the wild at any location in
Concord. Despite the disappearance of these species from Concord, they
are still found in other areas in the Northeast, albeit most in much lower
numbers than in Thoreau’s time.38
[[Link]] Project MUSE (2024-11-25 00:25 GMT)

85 Primack and Miller-Rushing, “Thoreau’s Contributions”

 Figure 5. Many native wildflower species which were common in
Concord in Thoreau’s time, such as bird’s foot violet, are now becoming
scarce, while non-native invasive species, such as purple loosestrife,
have become more common. Photos by Primack and Miller-Rushing.

As native species declined in abundance, the proportion of non-native

plants—those from other continents like Europe and Asia—increased. In
Thoreau’s time, non-native species made up 25% of plant species.39 Now
roughly 40% of plants in Concord are non-native. Some of these non-
native species, like purple loosestrife and glossy buckthorn, have become
wildly successful and are outcompeting and replacing many native
species, behaviors that earn them the moniker “invasive species.” During
the course of our own research, we have watched additional non-native
species, such as sheep’s-bit and lesser celandine, arrive in Concord and
become invasive.
While much of the loss of native species is related to habitat
destruction, air and water pollution, invasive species, and increasing
deer numbers, a warming climate is an additional major driver. The
plants that were lost, including orchids and mountain mints, tended to
be species that have inflexible flowering times and fail to track the
warming temperatures and earlier springs associated with climate
change.40 Species that have maintained or increased their population
numbers, including many non-native species, tend to be those that have
shifted to flower earlier as temperatures warmed.41 This relationship
between climate, phenology, and declines in plants was a novel finding
at the time and spurred much follow-up research around the world.42
Documenting the loss of species requires expertise and years of effort.
When we presented these findings in scientific papers and public
lectures, one botanist and admirer of Thoreau was skeptical of their
reality, suggesting that most of the species we failed to find were still
growing in Concord.43 After further searches and a lengthy back-and-
forth—which included newspaper articles, scientific papers, and

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rebuttals—it appears that most of the species that he thought we missed
were, in fact, gone.44 Others, however, were simply very nearly gone,
persisting as one or a few difficult-to-find, non-flowering individuals.
This modern vigorous intellectual debate is reminiscent of the
intellectual ferment of Concord in the mid-19th century, which stimulated
the Transcendentalists to produce their great works.
The loss of plants we documented from Concord presaged losses of
plant species elsewhere in the region.45 For example, Needham, a suburb
closer to Boston and more developed than Concord, has lost more than
40% of its wildflower species.46 Worcester County in central
Massachusetts lost a smaller portion of its flora than did Concord, due in
part to the county’s larger size.47 These losses of species in New England,
in turn, reflect the loss of native plant species in many locations around
the world. Changes in climate and land use appear to be driving global
declines in native species with relatively narrow distributions.48 One
estimate suggests that 39% of vascular plant species are threatened with
extinction.49

Know your Wild Neighbors

Thoreau could not have foreseen how modern scientists would apply his
observations to challenges like climate change and the loss of
biodiversity. But he certainly wanted his science and writings to
influence how we see and interact with nature. He famously encouraged
people to live simply, connect with the natural world, and act to promote
justice and social good. These aspects of his work mixed with his science.
Together they provide recommendations for how we can continue to
understand the impacts of climate change and, perhaps more
importantly, how we can act to limit climate change and its harmful
effects.
Thoreau’s close observations of the seasonal activities of plants and
animals were not solely aimed at creating a calendar of nature.50 He
wanted to use his observations get to know plants and animals as
neighbors:

About half a dozen years ago I found myself again attending to plants
with more method, looking out the name of each one and
remembering it . . . I remember gazing with interest at the swamps
about those days and wondering if I could ever attain to such
familiarity with plants that I should know the species of every twig
and leaf in them, that I should be acquainted with every plant . . . I
wanted to know my neighbors, if possible, - to get a little nearer to
them. (December 4, 1856)51

87 Primack and Miller-Rushing, “Thoreau’s Contributions”

 Thoreau was interested in the role of observation as a way to understand
nature scientifically and to connect with nature on an emotional level:

I think that the man of science makes this mistake, and the mass of
mankind along with him: that you should coolly give your chief
attention to the phenomenon which excites you as something
independent on you, and not as it is related to you. The important fact
is its effect on me . . . The philosopher for whom rainbows, etc., can
be explained away never saw them. With regard to such objects, I find
that it is not they themselves (with which the men of science deal) that
concern me; the point of interest is somewhere between me and them
[i.e., the objects]. (November 5, 1857)52

Growing numbers of people are now following Thoreau’s example,

visiting natural areas and recording observations of natural phenomena.
They are benefiting science and their personal understanding of the
natural world, while also connecting with nature on an emotional level.
On the scientific side, millions of volunteers are recording observations
of species phenology and occurrence by participating in online programs
like eBird, iNaturalist, and Nature’s Notebook. These volunteer-driven
observations now represent among the largest contributions to our
understanding of changes in plants and animals around the world.53
Thoreau is not the only inspiration for the growth in citizen science, but
the example he set and the priorities he espoused are a substantial part
of the story. Scientists are using data from these citizen science programs
to understand how species are responding to climate change and to
improve their protection, much like we have done using Thoreau’s
observations in Concord.54
Residents of Concord are particularly enthusiastic in making
observations of birds, contributing their observations to eBird. Hundreds
of Concord residents make bird observations at sites throughout the
town, such as Great Meadows and Walden Pond. As a part of our
continuing research, we are developing new statistical methods to
combine these modern bird observations with the observations of
individual observers, such as Thoreau, to lengthen records of bird
[[Link]] Project MUSE (2024-11-25 00:25 GMT)

arrivals and abundance. Programs like eBird are still growing in

popularity, so we hope that our methods can help create an ongoing
record that future scientists can use to study the effects of climate change
and extreme weather events on birds. We also hope that directly
connecting people’s current observations with Thoreau’s might inspire
new nature observers.

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 Figure 6. Residents of Concord at Great Meadows observing birds;
they submit their observations to eBird, an online citizen science
platform. Photo by Primack.

Studies of people participating in these types of volunteer nature

observation programs show that such activities can improve people’s
understanding of the natural world and desire to protect it.55 By and
large, people making these observations already like spending time in
nature, so the effects may be small and difficult to measure, but are still
real. Spending time in nature, as Thoreau did every day, can also
improve people’s physical and mental health.56 Some doctors now
prescribe time in nature to help patients recover from various ailments,
such as depression and anxiety.57 People who are spending time walking
in nature are also living more simply, spending less time in cars and on
electronic screens, and consuming less fossil fuels. The benefits of
Thoreau’s approach to “know our neighbors” is still relevant today, and
a key to addressing modern challenges like climate change and
conservation.
Unfortunately, access to natural areas and the free time to spend in
nature are not equally distributed. They tend to be concentrated among
the most affluent.58 Many people and organizations, including the US
government, are working to improve access to green spaces and to
develop nature observation projects targeted for groups currently
underrepresented in nature-focused citizen science.59 It’s our hope that
the work of these organizations, and our own small contributions, help

89 Primack and Miller-Rushing, “Thoreau’s Contributions”

the next generation of nature observers walk in the footsteps of Thoreau,
add to his observations, connect with nature, live simpler and healthier
lives, and confront important social and political issues such as climate
change.

Conclusion

At the start of our research in 2003, a skeptic could justifiably claim that
there was little or no evidence that a warming climate was affecting the
plants and animals of Concord, and almost any other location in the
United States. Thoreau’s records have now provided abundant evidence
that climate change in Concord is, in fact, impacting natural systems,
causing plants to shift the timing of when they flower and leaf.
Comparing his records to current conditions further shows that a
warming climate is partly responsible for the decline and local extinction
of well-known wildflowers. The more we studied Thoreau’s
observations and those of other Concord naturalists, the more we saw
the effects of climate change on this local scale, and the more we
recognized that the changes happening in Concord were representative
of changes happening in natural areas around the world. Moreover, the
practices that Thoreau lived by and the lessons he taught can help us
respond to climate change. The relevance of Thoreau to climate change
science and policy is substantial. We think back to 2003, when Brad Dean
first showed us Thoreau’s tables of when plants flowered and we
thought that Thoreau’s observations might have something to teach us
about climate change. And that certainly proved to be correct. As
Thoreau says in Autumnal Tints: “We cannot see anything until we are
possessed with the idea of it, take it into our heads—and then we can
hardly see anything else.”60

Acknowledgements

We thank Kris Cafaro, Phil Cafaro (who first told us about Thoreau’s
observations), Adriana Cracium, Laura Dassow Walls, Cristin Ellis, and
one anonymous reviewer for helpful comments on the paper and the US
National Science Foundation (grant DEB 1936877) for financial support.
The findings and conclusions presented in this article are those of the
authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the US Government or the
US Department of the Interior.

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2Laura Dassow Walls, Seeing New Worlds: Henry David Thoreau and
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5 Abraham Miller-Rushing and Richard B. Primack, “Global warming and

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