Introduction to Probability
Tutorial 5
1.
Let A be the probability that take 1 sock.
Let B be the probability that sock comes from the first drawer.
P(A) = [(1/2)*(6/12)] + [(1/2)*(2/6)] = 5/12
P(A|B) = 6/12 = 1/2
P(B|A) = [P(B)*P(A|B)]/P(A) = [1/2*1/2]/(5/12) = 3/5
2.
Let A be the probability that suffers from a particular disease.
Let B be the probability that identifying the disease.
a)
P(B) = P(A∩B) + P(A’∩B) = P(A)*P(B|A) + P(A’)*P(B|A’) = 0.01*0.97 + (1-
0.01)*0.06 = 0.0691.
b)
P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B) = 0.01*0.97/0.0691 = 97/691 ~ 0.141
c)
P(B’) = P(B’∩A) + P(A’∩B’) = P(A)*P(B’|A) + P(A’)*P(B’|A’) = 0.01*(1-0.97) + (1-
0.01)*(1-0.06) = 0.9309
P(A’|B’) = 1-P(A|B’) = 1-[P(A)*P(B’|A)]/P(B’) = 1-[0.01*(1-0.97)]/0.9309 =
3102/3103 ~ 0.9997
3.
Let A be the probability that it is cold day.
Let B be the probability that it is warm day.
Let C be the probability that it is hot day.
Let D be the probability that it is rain.
Let D’ be the probability that it isn’t rain.
P(C) = 1 - P(A) - P (B) = 1 - 0.15 - 0.25 = 0.6
P(D’) = P(A)*P(D’|A) + P(B)*P(D’|B) + P(C)*P(D’|C) = 0.15*[1-P(D|A)] + 0.25*[1-
P(D|B)] + 0.6*[1-P(D|C)] = 0.15*(1-0.3) + 0.25*(1-0.4) + 0.6*(1-0.5) = 0.555
P(A|D’) = [P(A)*P(D’|A)]/P(D’) = 0.15*[1-P(D|A)]/0.545 = [0.15*(1-0.3)]/0.555 =
7/37 ~ 0.(189)
4.
Let A be the probability that choose the fair coin.
Let B be the probability that toss and falling head up.
P(B) = P(A)*P(B|A) + P(A’)*P(B|A’) = 1/2*1/2 + 1/2*1/3 = 5/12
P(A|B) = [P(A)*P(B|A)]/P(B) = (1/2*1/2)/(5/12) = 3/5