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Understanding Inflation and Stock Market Dynamics

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
18 views13 pages

Understanding Inflation and Stock Market Dynamics

Stk details current
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Knowledge Vibes Academy

Module 1 – Lecture Notes


BATCH Notes – Module 1

DAY1 Lecture Notes


Concept of Inflation
A Shirt costs Rs. 200
Interest Rate 7 Percent (you can get from Bank FDs)
Inflation 6 % ( 4 to 6 Percent)
A shirt price increases to 206 (Because of Inflation)
Rs.1 (Real Return) ( 1 Percent)
(3 to 6 Percent)
12 Percent- 6 Percent = 6 Percent
To control the inflation
RBI Monetary Policy (Bimonthly Policy) ( Started from February 2023 )

REPO RATE 6.50 increase+++

Banks have to pay more

Banks increase interest rate

Company have to pay more interest


This will reduce the profit

This will be a negative impact of stock market and Vice versa in case of decrease
in Repo rate which is a positive impact for stock Market!

Stock Market Regulator

SEBI
Securities Exchange Board of India
Protection of the Investors
LODR ( Listing Obligation and Disclosure Requirements) in which companies have
to report it to SEBI regarding their stock transactions for every 14 days as a status
update to ensure transparency!

STOCK EXCHANGES
NSE National Stock Exchange
BSE Bombay Stock Exchange

Random Market oriented Activities!


RBI Monetary policy
Repo Rate
Bank receives loan from RBI on basis of repo rate.
What is the prevailing Repo rate (its 6.5 Percent as on June 2023)
Things to follow and Monitor in Stock market
Mutual Funds related news
Geo Political news like US markets FEDERAL Rate Decisions
RBI oriented news important
Govt. Policies do have a significant impact in stock market investment!
With respect to the price stability?
capital market ( Constant Volatility i.e Fluctuation of Prices)
or
Vegetable Market ( Predetermined Price comparatively Stable)

Depository (Your DEMAT A/c Services)


CDSL
NSDL
Central Depository Services Limited
Some of the prominent Brokerages to start your investment Journey
ZERODHA
UPSTOX
Sharekhan
INDMONEY

DAY 2 ( Lecture Notes)

Types of Company
LIC - PUBLIC LIMITED
MADRAS FERTILIZERS
Equity
Primary Market or IPO
Initial Public OFFER IPO
Swiggy
oyo (Boarding Booking APP)
Listing on
NSE National Stock Exchange
BSE Bombay Stock Exchange
Zomato IPO an example! ( refer it from google)

IPO Process Flow

Underwriters - SEBI- Permissions- Prospectus- Subscription- We can participate-


Demat Account- 15000 INR in your Bank Account.
FACE VALUE CONCEPT
100 shares of LIC Rs.800
Dividend of LIC is 20 Percent.
Dividend per share FACE VALUE 10
RS. 2 per share
STOCK SPLIT

TATA STEEL 1200 10 shares 12000


Tata steel 120 100 Shares 12000
2500 qty 10 shares 25000
Stock Split F.V = 10
F.V= 1.
250. qty 100 shares 25000

Tata steel 1200 10 12000


f.v= 10 (Stock Split)
f.v = 1
120 qty 100 12000
Buyback Concept
ril 2514
buyback 2540 Secondary Market

Mutual Funds ( A brief Orientation)


SBI Mutual Funds
HDFC Mutual Funds
Asset Management Company
SEBI (Regulator Of Mutual Funds)
2500++
Market Capitalization
RIL 2480
MCAP 16 lakh crore(Approximately) .

Fund Categories
LARGE CAP FUNDS
MCAP > 20000 cr to Infinity Large Cap Companies
Mid Cap Funds
Mcap 5000cr to 20000 Cr Mid cap Companies
Small Cap Funds
0 to 5000 cr

Mutual Funds ( Analysis)

SBI small cap fund direct Plan Growth


more than 60 % investment will be only with small cap companies.
FPI (Foreign Portfolio Investors)
DII(Domestic Institutional Investors)
FII (Foreign Institutional Investors)
How to enrol Mutual Funds?
Jupiter APP - Federal Bank
INDMONEY APP
Company Names ( Mutual Funds can be one way to ascertain )

DAY 3

Company Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
Value Analysis
ABC 200 (HIGHER Priced ) 210 (5 Percent)
xyz 150 ( Lower Priced) 160 (7 Percent)
Fundamental Analysis ( Detailed Perspective)
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
TREND
1. Short term Aspect ( Trading) ( CMP)>>>>>> ( To identify whether there
is increase or Decrease)
2. Long Term Aspect ( Investment)
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
1. Understand the company

2. NIFTY is Your choice ( Index)>>>>>( Representation of companies


across Industries) (50 Stocks)

3. HRITHIKS with Adani and Bajaj Group (BAJAJ FINANCE AND BAJAJ
FINSERV)

4. H- HDFC group R-Reliance Group T- TATA group ( TATA STEEL, TATA


Motors, TCS) I- Infosys , INDUSIND BANK H- HUL I- ICICI BANK K- Kotak
MAHINDRA BANK S- SBIN

5. VALUATION ( EARNINGS capacity and asset quality )

VALUE INVESTMENT
Screener Platform

1. MCAP > 400 crores

2. Z Score
Altman Z Score +3 greater than 3 Relaxation should not be 2.5

3. Piotroski Score

Greater than +5 Relaxation should not be less than 3

4. C Score
Transparency. less than 3 relaxation should not be more than 5.

Valuation Ratio.

5. Price to Earnings Ratio P/E Ratio.

Price = Market price of the share

Earnings= Earnings Per share (EPS)

Operational Performance.
Revenue= EBITDA

EBITDA= 1000 CR
Interest =200

EBTDA= 800

Depriciation = 100

Amortization = 100

EBT= 600

PBT = 500crores

Tax= 100 crores

PAT= 400/ outstanding Shares

Earnings Per Share= Rs.40 ( Almost Constant)

P/E = 0 to 30

0 to 20 = Under valued ( Comparitively Industry )


20 to 30= Over Valued

Above 30 = Risky

Indusrty P/E= 32

P/E = 18

P/E = 25
CURRENT MARKET PRICE (P) EARNINGS ( Earnings Per share) (E)

EPS= Net Profit / Outstanding Shares

P/E ratio ( CMP/ EPS)= UNDERVALUED (0 to 15)

Good value (competitive value) (15 to 30)


Overvalued ( 30 to 60)
INDUSTRY P/E = (compare this with corresponding
script's P/E)
P/E < Industry P/E= UNDERVALUATION CONFIRMATION
P/E > INDUSTRY P/E = Overvaluation Confirmation.

6. Price to Book Value


P/B = o to 4 relax till 5
7. PEG ratio (Risk FACTOR)

P/e Growth percentage / EPS Growth Percentage

40/60 Percent= 0.6

PEG RATIO Should be always less than 2 better less than 1.

8. Return On Equity
9. Return on Capital Employed

Average ROE and ROCE for 3 years to check for profitability

Greater than 10 % ...preferably to have more than 15 %

10. Promoter Holding

Check for the consistency in the shareholding pattern

FII and DII

11. Leverage

ABC Ltd. 500


Intraday 50 Leverage by the debt 10X times .

Debt to Equity.

Total Asset 1000 Crores

Total liabilty 2000 Crores

Debt to Equity ratio should be in the level of 0 to 2.

Debt to Equity shuld be less than 1.

12. Current Ratio


Current Asset to Current Liability.
Liquidity= how fast Asset into cash
Benchmark value should be 1 relaxation can be at the level of 0.90

13. G FACTOR ( Overall Rating)


Benchmark value for GFACTOR = 5 or you can look companies G factor =
3.
14. Graham Number = Intrinsic value of that company. this should be the case.
Graham Number > CMP means there is a good potential.

DAY 4 & DAY 5


Investment Cycle
1. Accumulation Phase
2. Mark up Phase
3. Distribution Phase
4. Mark Down Phase
1. Accumulation Phase
MOVING AVERAGES ( A few basic insights about Trading as a Separate segment
of stock Market)

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