Techno-Economic Analysis of Carbon Tech
Techno-Economic Analysis of Carbon Tech
White paper on understanding synergies and differences of TEA of CCUS and NETs,
focus on interfaces and holistic system assessment
TrANsMIT COST Action CA21127
This white paper has been prepared based on the results of works and discussions conducted
during the Workshop on Understand synergies and differences of TEA of CCUS and NETs
organized by the TrANsMIT Cost Action in Trondheim 22-23.06.2023. The workshop
involved general discussions on TEA of CCUS and analysis of an exemplary Direct Air
Capture of CO2 and Utilization (DACCU) aiming for the production of methanol.
The main questions that were raised during the discussions on TEA of CCUS were as follows:
i. What are the relevant design conditions in the process steps?
ii. What assumptions are necessary to develop the process models for the different process
steps?
iii. What are the different components of capital (for example: equipment costs,
contingencies, etc.) and operating costs (for example: sorbents, electricity, labor etc)?
iv. How can the capital costs be calculated/estimated/assumed for different components in
the process?
v. How can the different operating costs be calculated/estimated/assumed for different
components in the process?
vi. What are the relevant key performance indicators that should be evaluated for the
system presented in this case study, how are/can they be defined?
vii. What external factors should be considered while evaluating the KPIs?
viii. How to consider potential change of costs over time? How important it is for
technologies at different TRLs? (learning curves)
ix. Is techno-economic analysis sufficient for a full assessment of the system?
These questions were discussed solving and exemplary case of a CCUS system to produce
methanol. As appendices to this paper, introductory presentations given during the workshops
by Mijndert van der Spek “The need for perspective TEA and LCA” and Till Strunge “Early
career researcher perspective on CCUS TEA” during the meeting are attached.
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I. General discussion
First part of this white paper includes a general discussion on the questions stated above with
some specific examples for a methanol production plant that was a case analysed during the
workshops.
(i) What are the relevant design conditions in the process steps?
The relevant design conditions in the process steps for the given system can include many
elements that should be identified prior to the analysis. It needs to be pointed out that for the
entire system analysis some conditions can then be combined (e.g., efficiency of electrodes and
membrane might become system efficiency). It is also important to identify the main and
additional products in the system. For example, in case of methanol production the main
product is MeOH, however, a significant amount of oxygen and heat is also produced that could
potentially be considered a by-product. An exemplary identification of the design issues are
presented in Figure 1.
Fig. 1. Exemplary process description; Source: Materials prepared during the CA Transmit
workshops
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(ii) What assumptions are necessary to develop the process models for the
different process steps?
Mass and energy balance assumptions should be made, and missing data should be identified
in this step. It can be done as presented in Figure 2.
Fig. 2: Mass and energy balance; Source: Materials prepared during the CA Transmit workshops
Assumptions necessary to develop the process models can be divided into different groups,
including, for example, general assumptions, and assumptions for the main elements of the
system (e.g., carbon dioxide capture installation, methanol reactor, hydrogen generator).
Exemplary assumptions for the case of methanol production can be summarized as presented
in Table 1.
Table 1. Assumptions for methanol plant TEA
General assumptions
Description Value Unit Comments Ref
Plant capacity 2650 t/a MeOH from 4000 [I1]
tCO2 captured by
DAC plant in Iceland
Working hours 7800 h/a Year with 40 days Own
maintenance estimates
shutdown a year
DAC assumptions
Low grade heat 10.27 MJ/kg [I2]
MeOH
Electricity 17.9 MJ/kg
MeOH
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(iii) What are the different components of capital (for example: equipment costs,
contingencies etc) and operating costs (for example: sorbents, electricity, labor
etc)?
The different components of capital costs can include equipment costs, engineering and
construction costs, installation costs, land acquisition costs, permits and regulatory compliance
costs, contingency costs, and indirect costs such as project management and supervision.
Operating costs can include costs of raw materials (e.g., methanol, electricity), labor,
maintenance, utilities, consumables (sorbents), and waste management.
can be estimated based on the complexity and scale of the project. Land acquisition costs can
be assessed based on market prices. Permit and regulatory compliance costs can be estimated
by considering the specific requirements of the project and relevant regulations. For this total
system analysis, we can rely on capital cost estimates for each process units and scale them
using the specific total plant cost sTDC in € per tonne or kg of output:
𝑠𝑇𝑃Cnew = 𝑠𝑇𝑃𝐶literature ∙ (𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦new /𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦literature )scaling factor
Commonly, a scaling factor of 0.6 is used for chemical plants, but more detailed estimates can
be found in literature (e.g., [Link]
Exemplary cost estimates for hydrogenation for DAC and electrolysis are presented in Table 2.
Table 2. Exemplary CAPEX estimates for hydrogenation for DAC and electrolysis
Description Value Cap. Comment Reference
CAPEX DACs 86.5 4000 t CO2 per M$, due to modularity, [IV1]
year scaling factor of 1 was
CAPEX Electrolyser 0.75 551 tonnes H2 per calculated 1600 €/kW, M$, [IV2]
year scaling facor 1.
CAPEX methanol 17.2 2650 t MeOH per M$, scaling factor 0.6 [IV3]
production year
IV1 [Link]
IV2 [Link] electrolyser-a-series/
IV3 [Link]
(vi) What are the relevant key performance indicators that should be evaluated for
the system presented in this case study, how are/can they be defined?
In order to make a holistic assessment of modern and sustainable technologies, it is not
sufficient to make a thermodynamic or economic assessment alone. An analysis that takes into
account all aspects, i.e. technical (thermodynamic), environmental (ecological), economic, and
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(vii) What external factors should be considered while evaluating the KPIs
External factors that should be identified and considered while evaluating the KPIs. Exemplary
factors may include:
- Humidity: The moisture content in ambient air can affect the efficiency of CO2 capture
and the energy requirements for drying.
- Ambient temperature: Temperature can influence the performance and energy
efficiency of different process steps.
- Geographical location: Availability and cost of resources, such as electricity and raw
materials, can vary based on the location.
- Type of energy source: The source of electricity used for electrolysis can impact the
carbon footprint and cost of hydrogen production.
(viii) How to consider potential change of costs over time? How important is it for
technologies at different TRLs? (learning curves)
To consider potential changes in costs over time, it is important to account for factors such as
inflation, changes in raw material prices, and technology learning curves. Learning curves
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describe the relationship between cumulative production and the reduction in costs over time
due to increased experience and improved efficiencies. The importance of considering these
factors may vary for technologies at different Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs). For early-
stage technologies, cost estimates may have higher uncertainties and learning curves may play
a significant role in cost reduction as the technology matures.
For the purpose of the analysis the system was divided into 3 main elements:
- Direct Air Capture system,
- Hydrogen Generator system,
- Whole system analysis.
3. Background
[Link] air capture of CO2
Ambient air is introduced into the system through fans and comes into contact with the
adsorbent material. The adsorbent selectively captures CO2, allowing CO2-free air to exit the
adsorber column. Once the adsorbent has reached its capacity and absorbed as much CO2 as
possible, the CO2 is extracted from the column by increasing the temperature and lowering the
pressure. This process is known as temperature-vacuum swing adsorption. CO2 is released
(desorbed) and the adsorbent is rejuvenated. The desorbed CO2 is then dehydrated to remove
any accompanying water, and, subsequently, the CO2 can be compressed and sent to a facility
where it is combined with hydrogen (produced by electrolysis) to produce methanol.
Due to the acidic nature of CO2, the materials used for sorption must be of basic character.
Sorbents can be regenerated through a desorption process. Sorbents should follow a certain set
of conditions such as high selectivity, high capacity, fast transport and kinetic properties,
thermal and chemical stability, mechanical properties in the case of solid sorbent, ease of
loading in the case of solid sorbent, resistance to fouling, ease of regeneration, and low cost
[1]. Until now, no material found which fulfills all these conditions. Several sorbents can be
used during the process; generally, they can be divided into two groups: solid and liquid.
However, membrane and cryogenic-based separation technologies cannot be applied. The aim
of this work is to compare these two different types of sorbents.
3.1.1. Liquid sorbent (absorption)
The aqueous solutions of KOH and NaOH are integral components of the carbon capture
process, which require an energy input of approximately 14 GJ/Mt of CO2. This method is used
in the generation of 1 Mt of CO2. Primary energy expenditures occur in the oxy-fired calciner
and heater/dryer, requiring 6-9 GJ and 3.18 GJ, respectively, while the slaker and air separation
unit are relatively less energy intensive. Capital expenditure (CAPEX) for this system
encompasses the contactor array, slaker, causticizer, 10larificatory, air separation unit, and
condenser, with total costs ranging from 675 M$ to 1255 M$. Assuming a plant life of 30 years
and a fixed charge factor of 12%, CAPEX annualizes to $81 million to $151 million.
Operational expenses (OPEX) include maintenance, labor, makeup, waste removal, natural
gas, coal, and electricity costs, totaling $66 million to $113 million for natural gas and $59
million to $103 million for coal. This process is highly adaptable in terms of scale, but its
complex regeneration process for alkali scrubbing, is better suited for large-scale applications.
Amine scrubbing has been a classic choice for CO2 separation, employing 20-30 wt% aqueous
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contactor, heat integration, an innovative contactor design, and the discovery of high-
performance sorbents are critical avenues for development. Compared to liquid solvents, solid
sorbents offer the advantage of lower regeneration temperatures, reducing energy consumption,
and promoting energy-efficient DAC processes. However, their limited CO2 adsorption
capacity requires larger sorbent quantities, and efforts to accelerate adsorption kinetics are
pivotal for enhancing the overall effectiveness of DAC systems that employ solid sorbents.
[Link] process
Electrolysis process in an emission-free electrochemical technology for hydrogen production.
The reaction of decomposition of H2O into H2 and O2 is endothermic. Energy called enthalpy
of reaction ΔH is needed for the reaction which corresponds to the enthalpy of the formation
of water. In the gaseous state (beyond 100 °C) the total energy demand for H 2O electrolysis
process increases with higher temperatures but the free energy of the reaction decreases. This
provides the opportunity to use more heat for the H2O decomposition at higher temperatures.
In the most general way, electrolyzers can be divided into high-temperature and low-
temperature ones. Chosen characteristic parameters based on analyzes of the operation of low-
temperature alkaline electrolyzers (AEL), anion exchange membrane (AEM) electrolyzers and
polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolyzers and high-temperature solid oxide
electrolyzers (SOE) described in [3] are presented in Table 1.
Table 1 Chosen techno-economic parameters of four electrolysis cells [3]
LCOH (€/kg)
Alkaline PEM AEM SOEC
5.62-7.76 7.25-9.47 5.93-8.03 8.47-10.14
Table 4. Median cost and carbon intensity of different heat sources [9]
Table 5. Median cost and carbon intensity of different electricity sources [9]
The capital cost can be estimated with the use of the scale factor. The scale factor is the amount
by which the functional unit cost is multiplied to get the CAPEX estimate of the full-scale plant
[10].
𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝐵 (6)
log( )
𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝐴
𝑆𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 =
𝑀𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑅𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝐵
log( )
𝑀𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑅𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝐴
The fixed operating and maintenance costs are split in the following way:
• Direct and indirect labor (30% direct + maintenance)
• Direct labor costs are calculated based on 278 direct employees for a 1Mt CO2/year
plant
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[Link]
The capital costs of DAC plants are primarily driven by factors such as the technology
employed, the size and capacity of the facility, the cost of land and infrastructure, the
availability of cheap and clean energy for the capture process, and the specific geological or
environmental conditions of the location. Exemplary capital and operation costs for a DACCS
plant are presented in Table 6 and in Figure 3. The DACCS CAPEX is approximately 1700
€/tCO2 per year [9].
Table 6. Capital costs for a DACCS plant with solid sorbent and a capacity of 0.960 kt CO2/year [9]
Item Direct material Installed cost (M$) Installation cost with engineering
cost (M$) procurement and construction (M$)
Contactors 0.760 1.14 1.31
Blowers 0.433 0.668 0.768
Vacuum pump 1 0.0638 0.0999 0.115
Vacuum pump 2 0.0338 0.0650 0.748
Gas storage balloon 0.00200 0.00200 0.00230
Condensers 0.153 0.242 0.278
Switching valves 1.19 1.19 1.37
Initial sorbent 0.105 0.105 0.105
Buildings 0.0620 0.166 0.191
compressor 1.23 1.31 1.69
Air source heat pump N.A. N.A 0.359
Fig. 2. CAPEX and OPEX related to the DACCS system with three mainmovers [11].
The net present value (NPV) refers to the difference between current cash and the future cash.
When the NPV is above zero, the plant is profitable because it means your profit (cash flow)
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is higher than the costs. Fig 3 presents an example of sensitivity analysis of different variables
on NPV and levelized cost of CO2.
Fig. 3. Impact of different variables on the net present value and levelized cost of CO2
These are projects or technologies that follow the initial FOAK phase. They benefit from the
lessons learned and experience gained during the FOAK stage. NOAK projects are considered
less risky because they are based on proven designs and approaches. They are typically more
reliable and cost-effective because they have been optimized and refined through earlier
iterations. Table 7 presents reasons for higher FOAK cost relative to NOAK.
Table 7. Reason for changes in cost parameters
Fixed cost item Reason for higher FOAK cost relative to NOAK
Regulatory fees A FOAK facility operating new technology is expected to have higher regulatory
cost exposure than an NOAK facility.
Professional services Legal support in the form of supplier warranty management, claims management,
and overall commercial risk mitigation is expected to be greater for a FOAK
facility and the primary contributor to higher cost.
Tools/Equipment In general, new and/or novel (FOAK) technology is expected to require more
special tools and plant maintenance equipment.
Lease Expenses In most cases, a FOAK facility is expected to operate for a shorter period of time
than an NOAK facility and thus pay higher land lease rates (since shorter lease
occupancy periods typically incur higher lease payments).
Training For a unique FOAK technology, there is low likehood of knowledge transfer of
maintenance technicians, plant operators, and plant engineers from other similar
facilities; therefore, significant initial and ongoing training is likely to be required
for FOAK facility staff.
Property taxes and insurance Due to a lack of prior commercial experience, a FOAK facility will likely incur
higher insurance premiums for industry-aligned coverage.
In the process of evaluating Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), it is essential to take into
account various external factors that can affect their performance and interpretation. These
factors include elements such as input of AC power input, H2, stack degradation, energy prices,
policy and regulatory environment (including government regulations), technological
advances, market demand and pricing for all products, type and size of electrolyser, type of
energy source, geographical location, water availability, and quality. Considering these
external influences is crucial to obtain a comprehensive understanding of KPIs. Additionally,
for assessing the cost dynamics over time and the importance of technology at different
Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs), it is imperative to consider technology maturity and the
concept of learning curves. Different TRLs exhibit varying levels of cost uncertainty and
potential for cost reduction, with the learning curve effect playing a pivotal role, particularly
for early-stage technologies, enabling cost reduction and performance enhancement as
experience and production volume increase. However, technoeconomic analysis alone is
insufficient for a complete system assessment, as it primarily focuses on technological
feasibility. A comprehensive evaluation should also involve environmental impact assessments
through methods such as life cycle assessment (LCA) to understand the system's sustainability
and overall performance, alongside risk analysis considerations.
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5. Conclusion
The following essential steps on the way to TEA of CCUS systems were identified during the
discussion:
1. Process design – definition of the required and additional elements, definition of the
interconnections between blocks. A process diagram is a necessary element here.
2. Identification of technical parameters (e.g., types of utilities, size of the equipment,
electricity/heat (and other utilities) consumption, temperature, pressures, types of
processes involved, etc.)
3. Definition of boundary conditions of the system.
4. Inputs for economic analysis (e.g., CAPEX, OPEX, methods of project financing,
sources of the data, etc.)
5. Definition of Key Performance Indicators for technical and economical performance
(e.g., CO2 utilization, energy efficiencies, levelized costs of production, NPV, IRR,
etc).
Based on the discussed methodology, the following specific results for the TEA of a system
for methanol production can be stated:
• The aqueous solution DAC system is the most advanced, while moisture-swing solid
sorbents show promise for increased capacity. Concerns with the implementation of the
DAC include local CO2 depletion, which can affect the environment and increase costs,
necessitating the evaluation of recovery times and minimum distances between DAC
units.
• Water demand is a crucial consideration for large-scale DAC, with high-temperature
systems potentially consuming up to 50 tons of water per ton of CO2 captured, while
some low-temperature systems can capture water as a byproduct.
• High-temperature DAC models often use fossil fuels for heat, contributing to CO2
emissions, while low-temperature systems offer more energy-efficient heat sources,
including renewables and waste heat, reducing the levelized cost of CO2 (LCOD).
Acknowledgement
The workshop Understand synergies and differences of TEA of CCUS and NETs was funded
by the TrANsMIT COST Action CA21127, which was held in Trondheim, Norway (22-23
June 2023).
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Appendix 1
Mijndert van der Spek “The need for perspective TEA and LCA”
Appendix 2
Till Strunge “Early career researcher perspective on CCUS TEA” during the meeting are
attached.