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Conditional Probability Practice Problems

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Conditional Probability Practice Problems

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© All Rights Reserved
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Practice Problems

(Conditional Probability/Expected Value and fair games)


September 18, 2024

1 3 7
1. Let A and B be events such that 𝑃(𝐴) = 2 , 𝑃(𝐵) = 4 and 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 8.
a. Calculate 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵).
b. Calculate 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵).
c. Calculate 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴).
d. Are the events A and B independent?\ Give a reason for your answer?
2. Every Monday of each week, two roommates Aygul and Madina pick a night at random on which
they will watch a movie. If they choose a Friday night, they watch a Tajik movie with probability
4 5
or they watch a Russian movie with probability . If they choose a Saturday night, they watch
9 12
5 3
a Pakistani movie with probability 9 or they watch a Russian movie with probability 25 . If they
4
choose a Sunday night, they watch an English movie with probability or they watch a Russian
7
3
movie with probability 7 . If they choose any other night, they watch a Russian movie.

a. Find the probability that they watch a Tajik Movie.


b. Find the probability that they watch a movie other than a Tajik, Russian, Pakistani or
English movie.
c. Find the probability that they watch a Russian movie.
d. Find the probability that they watch a Russian movie given that they choose Saturday.
e. Given that last week they watched a Russian movie, find the probability that it was on a
Sunday night.
f. Given that last week they watched a movie other than a Tajik, Russian, Pakistani or
English movie, find the probability that it was on a Friday night.

3. Two dice are rolled. Consider the following events


𝐸1 : getting a sum equal to 12
𝐸2 : getting a double (when the numbers on the first and second die are same, then it’s called a
double e.g. (2,2) etc).
𝐸3 : getting a sum less than or equal to 6.
a. Find 𝑃(𝐸1 | 𝐸2 ).
b. Find 𝑃(𝐸2 |𝐸1 ).
c. Find 𝑃(𝐸3 | 𝐸2 ).
d. Find 𝑃(𝐸2 | 𝐸3 ).
e. Find 𝑃(𝐸1 | 𝐸3 ).

4. Fish in the Khorog River have different weights. The probability of catching a fish over 2 kg is
18%. Mr. Mukhtaram caught five fish last week. Given that first four fish were over 2 kg, find the
probability of the fifth fish being over 2 kg.
5. In a board game a six-sided die is rolled 50 times. What is the probability that 4th roll is a five
given that 3rd roll was a six?
6. A basket contains 5 white balls and 7 black balls. If two balls are drawn, find the probability that
second ball is white given that first is a black ball.
7. Suppose that a jar contains 8 red balls and 4 white balls. We draw 2 balls from the jar without
replacement. (a) If we assume that at each draw each ball in the jar is equally likely to be
chosen, what is the probability that both balls drawn are red?
8. 70% of UCA students like soccer, and 35% play soccer AND volleyball. What percent of those
who play soccer also play volleyball?
9. You draw two cards from a deck. If it is Jack and a Queen, you win 500 somoni. If it is an Ace and
a 2, you win 100 som. If it is a King and 10, you lose 600. Is this a fair game?

Common questions

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They watch a Tajik movie only on a Friday night with probability 4/9. Assume the probability of choosing any night is equal and given no explicit information on the weighting of other nights, the assumed cumulative probability for a Tajik movie is (4/9)/7 for all possible nights .

The probability of the intersection of events A and B can be calculated using the formula P(A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B). Substituting the provided values, 7/8 = 1/2 + 3/4 - P(A ∩ B). This simplifies to P(A ∩ B) = 1/2 + 3/4 - 7/8 = 3/8 .

The probability P(E1 | E2) is 0 because two 6-sided dice sum to 12 only if both show six, equating them but ensuring only a singular scenario rather than the probability-inclusive class of 'doubles' .

A game is fair if expected value equals zero. Calculate expected payout: P(JQ)*500 + P(A2)*100 - P(K10)*600. Estimate probabilities, given combinations, then use EV = 0 to assess fairness .

Assuming independence, the probability that the fifth fish is over 2 kg remains at 18%. The previous outcomes for the first four do not impact subsequent catch probabilities .

The likelihood they watch a movie other than the specified ones is the complement of watching listed movies. Calculate it by subtracting the sum of probabilities of each listed movie from 1. Without explicit details, assuming equal weighting, a further internal probability split might be required .

The probability needs applying Bayes' theorem: P(Sunday|Russian) = P(Russian|Sunday) * P(Sunday) / P(Russian). Without exact distributions, assuming equal night probabilities suffices unless specified otherwise .

Given they chose a Saturday night, the probability of watching a Russian movie is 3/25 since those are the provided conditional probabilities for that specific decision .

Start with 12 total balls, drawing a black ball decreases black count to 6. With 11 remaining balls, probability white is next is 5/11 .

For events A and B to be independent, P(A ∩ B) should equal P(A)P(B). Substituting the values, P(A)P(B) = (1/2)(3/4) = 3/8, which matches P(A ∩ B). Therefore, events A and B are independent .

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