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Reliability assessment for taipower's composite

system‐case studies
a b c c c
Lun‐Hui Lee , Ying‐Yi Hong , Yung‐Tien Chen , Tzong‐Yih Guo , Yuh‐Fa Chuang &
c
Chyou‐Jong Lin
a
Department of Electrical Engineering , Chung Yuan University , Chungli, Taiwan 320,
R.O.C.
b
Department of Electrical Engineering , Chung Yuan University , Chungli, Taiwan 320,
R.O.C. Phone: 886–3–2652300 Fax: 886–3–2652300 E-mail:
c
Department of System Planning , Taiwan Power Company , Taipei, Taiwan 106, R.O.C.
Published online: 04 Mar 2011.

To cite this article: Lun‐Hui Lee , Ying‐Yi Hong , Yung‐Tien Chen , Tzong‐Yih Guo , Yuh‐Fa Chuang & Chyou‐Jong Lin (2006)
Reliability assessment for taipower's composite system‐case studies, Journal of the Chinese Institute of Engineers, 29:1,
97-108, DOI: 10.1080/02533839.2006.9671102

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 Journal of the Chinese Institute of Engineers, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 97-108 (2006) 97

RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR TAIPOWER’S COMPOSITE

SYSTEM-CASE STUDIES

Lun-Hui Lee, Ying-Yi Hong*, Yung-Tien Chen, Tzong-Yih Guo, Yuh-Fa Chuang, and
Chyou-Jong Lin

ABSTRACT
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This paper studies the reliability assessment of Taiwan Power Company’s

(Taipower’s) system. The systems for the years 2003 and 2006 are investigated in
accordance with the existing N-1 and N-2 planning criteria. The reliability assess-
ment is achieved by both the power-flow based deterministic analysis and the Markov-
model based probabilistic analysis. It is found that the reliability of the system will
be enhanced in 2006 compared to the system in 2003 due to the sixth transmission and
substation project.
This paper also explores the generalized N-1 and N-2 contingency criteria by
taking generator, transformer, or transmission outages into account. In addition, the
possibility of raising the N-1 and N-2 contingency criteria to the level of N-2 and N-
3 contingency criteria is considered. It is found that the N-2 criteria are stricter for
the 161 kV transmission system while the 345 kV transmission system is still robust
and conforms to the N-3 criteria in 2006. Furthermore, the sequential N-1-1 and N-1-
2 contingencies are less severe than the simultaneous N-2 and N-3 contingencies.

Key Words: reliability, markov model, security, voltage stability, composite system.

I. INTRODUCTION 2002). This paper addresses HL II for Taipower’s

system reliability study in the planning stage and for
The reliability study for a power system can be the evaluation of some of Taipower’s transmission
considered from three hierarchical levels (HL), as system planning criteria.
shown in Fig. 1 (Pereira and Balu, 1992). HL I in- Reliability assessment of composite systems be-
cludes generation facilities; HL II covers generation gan in the late 1960’s, primarily in Europe (Italy and
facilities and transmission facilities; all generation, France) and in North American (Pereira and Balu,
transmission, and distribution facilities are consid- 1992). There are two different approaches for reli-
ered in HL III (Billinton and Zhang, 1998). Reliabil- ability assessment: numerical Monte Carlo sampling
ity assessments for these three levels use different and analytical state enumeration (EPRI, 1987).
mathematical models. Reliability at HL II is usually Currently, the state enumeration method is used for
called the composite system or bulk transmission sys- most of the commercial programs for power system
tem evaluation (Endrenyi et al., 1988). Reliability reliability, such as TRESS, TPLAN (Stone and
assessment is generally used to study transmission Webster, 2001) and so on.
system development planning, and sometimes is also In the case of Taiwan, according to Taipower’s
used for transmission operation planning (Li et al., long-term power development plan for 2006, the in-
stalled capacity and the peak load will be 41102.3
*Corresponding author. (Tel: 886-3-2652300; Fax: 886-3- MW and 32337 MW, respectively. To meet network
2652399; Email: yyhong@[Link]) reliability requirements, Taipower initiated the sixth
L. H. Lee and Y. Y. Hong are with the Department of Electrical transmission and substation expansion project run-
Engineering, Chung Yuan University, Chungli, Taiwan 320, R.O.C.
Y. T. Chen, T. Y. Guo, Y. F. Chuang, and C. J. Lin are with the
ning from mid 2001 to the end of 2006. A total of
Department of System Planning , Taiwan Power Company, Taipei, 272 new substations will be built, including 19 EHV
Taiwan 106, R.O.C. substations, 6 P/S substations, 239 D/S substations,
 98 Journal of the Chinese Institute of Engineers, Vol. 29, No. 1 (2006)

1st Nuclear
Maolin 2nd Nuclear
Hsientu
Sanlu Hsiehho
Generation Hierarchical level I Everpower 4th Nuclear
facilities HL I Tinghu Taan Chich'ao
Hsichih
Tatan Kuokuang Shenmei
Chukung Panch'iao Sunghu
Chuwei Kut'ing
Transmission Hierarchical level II
facilities HL II Lungt'an Tung shan
Emei

Hokung

Distribution Hierarchical level III Hoping

Chungkang Houli
facilities HL III
Taichung
Wufeng Tienlung
Ch'uanhsin

Fig. 1 Hierarchical levels for reliability assessment Changpin

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Takuan #2

Chanlin Nant'ou
Mailiao Mint'an
Fenglin
Chungliao
and 8 S/S substations (69/22 kV/11 kV). There is a
total transmission line length addition of 3660.3 ckt- Chiamin
km: overhead lines (345 kV: 798.6 ckt-km; 161 kV: Chialu
1142.2 ckt-km; 69 kV: 292.5 ckt-km), and under-
ground cables (345 kV: 52 ckt-km, 161 kV: 1139.5
Ch'iku
ckt-km; 69 kV: 235.5 ckt-km). The total investment
Lungch'l
for this plan is NT$454.4 billion or about US$13 Nank'e
Lupei
billion. (Lin et al., 2002) Hsinta
This paper studies the reliability assessment of Jenwu
Mili Nuclear power plant
Kaohsiung
the Taipower composite system developed by the Wuchia Kaokang Thermal power plant
sixth transmission and substation expansion project Hydro power plant
and investigates possible planning criteria. The state
EHV substation
enumeration based commercial package, TPLAN, Dap'eng
345 kV line
developed by PTI (Power Technology Incorporation,
Inc.) was used for this purpose. The Markov Chain
3rd Nuclear
modeling the failure rate and repaire rate for a com-
ponent of the power system is adopted in TPLAN.
Fig. 2 Taipower’s 345 kV transmission system in 2006
Through the reliability assessment results, reliability
of the new Taipower transmission system can be un-
derstood and modified. In addition, Taipower’s trans-
mission system planning criteria can be considered located in northern Taiwan. Most of the power is sup-
for future reference. plied from the central and southern areas (Hsiao et
In the following, the background of the sixth al., 2002). In 2003, many independent power pro-
transmission and substation expansion project and the ducers (IPPs) were connected to Taipower’s trans-
existing (transmission) system planning criteria are mission system to supply their power. These IPPs
given in Sec. II. The Markov model for assessing are Hsintao, Mailiao, Hoping, Kuokung, Chiahuj and
the reliability of the composite power system is pro- so on. In the summer peak-load period, the genera-
vided in Sec. III. Some numerical results for the tion resources in northern Taiwan are less than the
Taipower system are discussed in Sec. IV. Sec. V load demand. Hence, power is fed from the southern
presents the conclusions. area to the center and then transferred from the cen-
ter to the north, to rectify power shortages in north-
II. BACKGROUND OF TAIPOWER’S ern Taiwan.
SYSTEM In 2006, the sixth transmission and substation
expansion project will be completed. A total of 272
1. Taipower’s Transmission Systems in 2003 and new substations will be added to the system, which
in 2006 includes 19 EHV substations, 6 P/S substations, 239
D/S substations and 8 S/S substations. The lengths
Figure 2 shows Taipower’s 345 kV transmission of the overhead and underground transmission line
system in 2006. Taipower’s system is a typical lon- length additions are 2233.3 ckt-km and 1427 ckt-km,
gitudinal and isolated system with the load center respectively (Lin et al., 2002). In addition, many new
 L. H. Lee et al.: Reliability Assessment for Taipower’s Composite System-Case Studies 99

generators are also included for 2006. The 4th nuclear

power plant, No. 9 and No. 10 coal generators at the
Taichung power plant, and combined cycle genera-
tors at the Tatan power plant are scheduled to be com-
pleted and provide power to the Taipower systems.
Some IPPs such as Everpower and Star energy etc.
also will take part in the power system. Since most
of the added generators are located in the northern
area or the central area of Taiwan, the northern area
will supply more of its own power than previously. Fig. 3 Markov two-state model

2. Taipower’s Transmission System Planning

Criteria
given first and then the continuation power flow
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Expansion of the transmission system must meet method for the voltage stability is provided in this
Taipower’s transmission planning criteria. The defi- section.
nitions of the N-1 and N-2 criteria in the existing
Taipower criteria are given below. The planning cri- 1. Markov Model
teria for 345 kV (EHV) and 161 kV (HV) transmis-
sion lines are also provided below. A power system is composed of many different
In the planning criteria, the term “N-1” crite- elements, such as generators, lines, transformers and
rion indicates that one transmission line is in a con- loads. The most commonly used probabilistic model
dition of scheduled or forced outage. The term for these system elements is the Markov model, which
“N-2” criterion includes the following conditions: is usually called the “homogeneous model” (Van
(i) two transmission lines are being overhauled, Casteren et al., 2000). In this paper, the TPLAN soft-
(ii) two transmission lines have tripped, (iii) one ware package, developed by Power Technologies Inc.,
transmission line is being overhauled and another one using the Markov two-state model shown in Fig. 3, is
trips, or (iv) the generator with maximum capacity in adopted for reliability assessment (Billinton et al.,
the system is in a condition of scheduled outage and 1991; Andrea et al., 2000).
there is a forced transmission line outage. When an In Fig. 3, the model contains an “UP” state and
N-1 or N-2 event occurs, the power system should a “DOWN” state. “UP” represents the element that
maintain normal operation (System Planning is available or in a service state. “DOWN” means
Department, 1998). that the element is unavailable or in an outage state.
According to the Taipower planning criteria, The symbols λ and µ are the failure rate and the re-
when expanding the transmission system, 345 kV pair rate, respectively; both of which can be consid-
transmission lines should satisfy the following ered as transition probabilities. The symbols “M” and
criteria: (i) Outlet lines of a nuclear power plant and “R” signify the average times of the “UP” and
345 kV main north-south EHV transmission lines “DOWN” states, respectively, while the symbol “T”
should conform to the N-2 criteria. (ii) Outlet lines denotes the period of time and equals M plus R. Fre-
of the hydro and thermal power plants should satisfy quency (f) is defined as the reciprocal of T, while λ
the N-1 criteria. (iii) Outlet lines of EHV substations and µ are the reciprocal of M and R, respectively.
should meet the N-2 criteria. Furthermore, 161 kV Three basic indices of reliability assessment are
transmission lines should conform to the following probability (p), frequency (f) and failure time (r)
criteria: (i) Outlet lines of the hydro and thermal (Billinton and Zhang, 1998; Mitra and Singh, 1999).
power plants should satisfy the N-1 criteria. (ii) Out- The relevant equations are as follows (Lai, 1993):
let lines of P/S and D/S substations should comply
with the N-1 criteria. •probability(p)–

III. ASSESSMENT METHOD 1µ

pi(down) = R = R = i (1)
T M + R 1λ + 1µ
HL II reliability assessment addresses the ad- i i

equacy of both generation and transmission systems.

In addition to the probability information for the Πλ i
∴ pj = Π pi(down) =
power system elements, the security and stability are Π(λ i + µ i)
also stressed in HL II reliability assessment. The
probability information using the Markov model is •frequency (f)–
 100 Journal of the Chinese Institute of Engineers, Vol. 29, No. 1 (2006)

The frequency of the system failure (f s (failure)) is

given by
Fig. 4 Elements in series type
n n
fs(failure) = Σ
i=1
pi(up) Σ λ i
i=1
(6)

The duration of the system failure (d s (failure)) is

given by
ps(failure)
d s(failure) = (7)
fs(failure)
Parallel Type:
The elements are connected in parallel as shown
in Fig. 5. Only simultaneous all element failures will
Fig. 5 Elements in parallel type cause system failure.
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The probability of the system failure (p p(failure)) is

given by
f = 1 = 1 = 1 × R = µ × p(down) n
T M+R R M+R pp(failure) = Π pi(down)
i=1
(8)

= 1 × M = λ × p(up) (2) The frequency of the system failure (f p (failure)) is

M M+R
given by
∴f i = p i(down) Σ µ i = p jΣ µ i n
fp(failure) = pp(failure) Σ µ i (9)
1 1 i=1
1 M + R M +R = f
λ= = =
M M× 1 1– R f ×r The duration of the system failure (d p (failure)) is
M+R M +R 1– M +R given by
f
= pp(failure)
f ×r (3) d p(failure) = (10)
1– fp(failure)
8760

if f × r << 8760 ⇒ λ ≈ f Series-Parallel Type:

Actually, the elements of composite systems are
•failure time (r)– in hybrid series-parallel. The system should be de-
composed into clusters including elements in series
µ i = 1 = 8760 (4) or in parallel only when studying the reliability
Ri r i(hour)
assessment. Eqs. (5)-(7) for solving the clusters with
∴r j = 8760 series connections and Eqs. (8)- (10) for solving the
Σµ i clusters with parallel connections are used iteratively
until all clusters are done. After the preceding
where i and j are the outage element and contingency
procedure, all clusters are considered as elements with
(outage) indices, respectively.
new probabilities, frequencies and durations. Then
The elements of power systems may be con-
the solution process is recursively performed again
nected to one another in series, parallel or hybrid se-
until all clusters are in series or in parallel.
ries-parallel in a composite system (Endrenyi, 1978).
These three types of connections are discussed as
2. Voltage Stability
follows. The term “system failure” in the Markov
model may mean “line overflow”, “low voltage”,
There are several stability problems in the power
“high voltage” or “voltage collapse” in this paper.
system, e.g., voltage stability, dynamic stability and
Series Type:
transient stability, etc; the latter two are related to
The elements may be connected in series as
synchronous machines, while the first one concerns
shown in Fig. 4. Any failure in one of the elements
the MVAr adequacy for both generation and
will cause system failure.
transmission. This paper addresses the voltage sta-
The probability of the system failure (ps(failure))
bility (Taylor, 1994). When the system suffers from
is given by
severe contingencies, the system voltages will de-
n crease and voltage collapse is likely to occur.
ps(failure) = 1 – Π pi(up)
i=1
(5)
There are some methods for evaluating the
 L. H. Lee et al.: Reliability Assessment for Taipower’s Composite System-Case Studies 101

Table 1 Outage statistics for generators

Types of Occurrence/ Hours/
generators GW/year Occurrence
Nuclear 1.34 88.48
Thermal 3.41 40.59
Hydraulic 1.27 41.24
IPP 2.69 37.87
Cogeneration 0.00 0.00

Fig. 6 Voltage v.s. load parameter ( λ )

Base case N-1 & N-2
selection Contingencies
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voltage collapse point. The continuation method is

used in the TPLAN package as follows: The vector
of the power flow equations can be expressed as: Evaluate each
contingency

F(x, λ) = f(x) + λb = 0 (11)

where x denotes the vector of the state variables (bus Classify

results
voltage magnitudes and phase angles); λ ∈ R is re-
lated to load variation; and λ ∈ R n expresses the MW
generation and demand where “n” is the system bus
number. The continuation method using Newton’s No trouble Local trouble System trouble
method can trace the nose curve, as shown in Fig. 6,
Overload Volatge collapse
and obtains both the Stable Equilibrium Point (SEP) Low voltage
and Unstable Equilibrium Point (UEP). As the sys- High voltage
tem load increases from the current operating point (λ
= 0), the system voltage will decrease until λ = λ* where
SEP and UEP coincide and the voltage collapse occurs.
Calculate
probabilistic
3. Algorithmic Flowchart for N-1 and N-2 Contin- trouble index
gencies
Fig. 7 HL II reliability assessment
The flowchart for performing the reliability as-
sessment is illustrated in Fig. 7. There are two base
cases considered in the reliability assessment: one is
the peak-load scenario in 2003 and the other is the Taipower’s historic data from 1992 through 2001
peak-load scenario in 2006. Contingency analysis (PSD and SOD, 1992-2001). The report (PSD and
follows the N-1 and N-2 definitions in Sec. II. 2. SOD, 1992-2001) includes the statistical data on
Deterministic (including security and voltage Taipower’s generators, transmission lins and trans-
stability) analysis using the power-flow based con- former outages from 1992 through 2001.
tingency evaluation is then performed. The deter- There are ten-year data for the nuclear, thermal,
ministic results can be classified into three groups: and hydraulic generators, but only two-year data avail-
(i) normal, (ii) local trouble (line overflow, low/high able for the IPPs. There is no contingency record for
voltages), and (iii) system trouble (voltage collapse/ cogeneration and the cogeneration power is much less
instability). When the system has local/system than the total power. Statistical information for gen-
troubles, probability analyses using the Markov model erators is shown in Table 1. It can be found that the
for reliability assessment are conducted. outage occurrence for the thermal generators is 3.41
times per GW in a year. This value is higher than
IV. CASE STUDY- SIMULATION RESULTS that for other types of generator. The higher outage
rate for the thermal generators than that of nuclear
1. Historic Operation Data generators is due to the averaged higher age of the
thermal generators. Among the generator outages,
The following reliability assessment is based on nuclear generators need more time to be restored to a
 102 Journal of the Chinese Institute of Engineers, Vol. 29, No. 1 (2006)

Table 2 Outage statistics for transmission lines

Voltage Levels Occurrence/km/year Hours/Occurrence
345 kV 0.00036 17.29
161 kV 0.00253 15.23

Table 3 Deterministic results of N-1 contingencies

Result
No. of Convergence
Year Voltage
contingencies Not-convergence
Overload Voltage Voltage collapse
(> 1.1 p.u.) > 1.1 p.u. < 0.9 p.u.
360
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2003 474 0 114

30 0 0
534
2006 559 1 24
9 0 1

Table 4 Deterministic results of N-2 contingencies

Result
No. of Convergence
Year Voltage
contingencies Overload Voltage Voltage Not-convergence
collapse
(> 1.1 p.u.) > 1.1 p.u. < 0.9 p.u.
2003 1051
1431 0 380
(LL) 5 0 0
2003 36
53 0 17
(UL) 0 0 0
2006 3827
4088 0 261
(LL) 0 0 0
2006 84 0 6
90
(UL) 0 0 0

normal state. Because the generator model is based which mean that the maximum mismatch of the power
on “occurrence/GW/year” instead of “occurrence/plant/ flow equations is greater than 0.01 p.u., but not
year”, the Markov model can treat the partial outage divergent. In all, there are 21, 6 and 3 overflows in
problem. In addition, transmission lines are clustered the northern, central and southern areas, respectively.
into 345 kV and 161 kV voltage levels. In Table 2, Overflows happen predominantly in the north of Tai-
the frequency (occurrence/km/year) and duration wan and all the overloaded transmission lines are of
(hours/occurrence) for the transmission line outages the 161 kV voltage level. The 345 kV transmission
are provided. The “km” in Table 2 refers to the length lines will not overload for N-1 contingencies. On the
only rather than “circuit-length.” other hand, in the scenarios for 2006, there are 9 over-
load cases and 1 low voltage case in the 534 conver-
2. Reliability Assessment gent cases; one voltage collapse case (east area) and
24 not-converged cases. Overload or low voltage oc-
(i) Deterministic Results curs in the 161 kV system. In particular, 19 low volt-
ages occur when a 161 kV transmission line from
Table 3 shows the deterministic results of the Fenglin to Yüli has tripped.
N-1 contingencies. For the scenarios in 2003, there Table 4 shows the deterministic results of the
are 30 overload cases and 114 “not-converged cases” N-2 contingencies. The symbols “LL” and “UL”
 L. H. Lee et al.: Reliability Assessment for Taipower’s Composite System-Case Studies 103

Table 5 Probabilistic results of N-1 contingencies

Year 2003 2006
Overload F(OC/YR) 0.8070 0.1030
(> 1.1 p.u.) D(H/OC) 15.2 15.2
Voltage F(OC/YR) 0.0000 0.0000
Convergence
> 1.1 p.u. D(H/OC) 0.0 0.0
Voltage F(OC/YR) 0.0000 0.1170
< 0.9 p.u. D(H/OC) 0.0 15.2
F(OC/YR) 0.0000 0.0720
Voltage collapse
D(H/OC) 0.0 15.2
F(OC/YR) 2.5740 0.2850
Not-convergence
D(H/OC) 15.3 15.2
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F(OC/YR) 3.3810 0.5770

System
D(H/OC) 15.3 15.2

Table 6 Probabilistic results of N-2 contingencies

Year 2003(LL) 2003(UL) 2006(LL) 2006(UL)
Overload F(OC/YR) 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
(> 1.1 p.u.) D(H/OC) 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
Voltage F(OC/YR) 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Convergence
> 1.1 p.u. D(H/OC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Voltage F(OC/YR) 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
< 0.9 p.u. D(H/OC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
F(OC/YR) 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Voltage collapse
D(H/OC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
F(OC/YR) 0.2356 0.3550 0.0662 0.1560
Not-convergence
D(H/OC) 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3
F(OC/YR) 0.2356 0.3550 0.0662 0.1560
System
D(H/OC) 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3

indicate that 1) two transmission lines have tripped (ii) Probabilistic Results
and 2) one maximum generator as well as a transmis-
sion line have tripped. In the LL scenarios for 2003, The probabilistic results for the N-1 and
there are 5 overloads (2 and 3 in the northern and cen- N-2 contingencies are shown in Tables 5 and 6,
tral areas) in the 1051 convergent cases and 380 not- respectively. In Tables 5 and 6, the symbol “F(OC/
converged cases. In the UL scenarios for 2003, there YR)” represents the frequency index which means the
are 36 convergent cases and 17 not-converged cases. “occurrence times per year” and the symbol “D(H/
On the other hand, in the LL cases for 2006, there are OC)” represents the duration index which is “unavail-
3827 convergent cases and 261 not-converged cases. able hours per occurrence.” The system frequency
In the UL cases for 2006, there are 84 convergent cases indices for the N-1 contingencies are 3.3810 in 2003
and 6 not-converged cases. There are no overloads, and 0.5770 in 2006. The system frequency indices
high voltages or low voltages in the convergent cases. for the LL N-2 contingencies are 0.2356 in 2003 and
One voltage collapse case (eastern area) occurs in 2006; 0.0662 in 2006. The system frequency index for the
however, the system can be restored if load is curtailed UL N-2 contingencies decreases from 0.3550 in 2003
properly. The deterministic results show that the im- to 0.1560 in 2006. It can be found that the overall
pact of N-1 and N-2 contingencies in 2006 upon the reliability in 2006 is greatly improved over that in
security and voltage stability will be greatly reduced. 2003.
 104 Journal of the Chinese Institute of Engineers, Vol. 29, No. 1 (2006)

Table 7 Statistic information for transformers

Types of substations Outage/100 MVA Hours/Outage
EHV 0.00303 0.42
HV 0.05287 3.79
LV 0.05287 3.79

Table 8 Probabilistic results of generalized N-1 contingencies

Contingency Lin Transformer
Overload F(OC/YR) 0.1030 0.1800
(> 1.1 p.u.) D(H/OC) 15.2 0.4
Voltage F(OC/YR) 0.0000 0.0000
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Convergence
> 1.1 p.u. D(H/OC) 0.0 0.0
Voltage F(OC/YR) 0.1170 0.0450
< 0.9 p.u. D(H/OC) 15.2 0.4
F(OC/YR) 0.0720 0.1800
Voltage collapse
D(H/OC) 15.2 0.4
F(OC/YR) 0.2850 0.1050
Not-convergence
D(H/OC) 15.2 0.4
F(OC/YR) 0.5770 0.4650
System
D(H/OC) 15.2 0.4

Table 9 Probabilistic results of generalized N-2 contingencies

Contingency LL UL UT LT TT
Overload F(OC/YR) 0.0000 0.0000 0.2400 0.1650 0.2100
(> 1.1 p.u.) D(H/OC) 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4
Voltage F(OC/YR) 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Convergence
> 1.1 p.u. D(H/OC) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Voltage F(OC/YR) 0.0000 0.0000 0.0450 0.0450 0.0450
< 0.9 p.u. D(H/OC) 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4
F(OC/YR) 0.0000 0.0000 0.1800 0.0450 0.1800
Voltage collapse
D(H/OC) 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4
F(OC/YR) 0.0662 0.1560 0.0750 0.1200 0.0450
Not-convergence
D(H/OC) 17.3 17.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
F(OC/YR) 0.0662 0.1560 0.4950 0.4650 0.4350
System
D(H/OC) 17.3 17.3 0.4 0.4 0.4

3. Discussions for the Planning Criteria statistical frequency (occurrence/100 MVA) and the
duration (hour/occurrence) for the EHV, HV and LV
(i) Generalized N-1 and N-2 Criteria substation transformers are provided in Table 7 (PSD
and SOD, 1992-2001).
In the original Taipower planning criteria, the Tables 8 and 9 illustrate the reliability assess-
N-1 and N-2 contingencies only concern the line and ment of generalized N-1 and N-2 contingencies for
generator outages. Actually, generalized N-1 and the scenarios in 2006. Four transformer contingen-
N-2 contingencies should cover all major elements cies will lead to voltage collapses located in Hsichih,
in the power system. In the following, an additional Tungshan, Wufeng and Chiamin EHV substations.
element, the transformer, is considered. The historic The system frequency index for transformers is
 L. H. Lee et al.: Reliability Assessment for Taipower’s Composite System-Case Studies 105

Table 10 Probabilistic results of raising N-1 to N-2 criteria

Contingency LL UL
Overload F(OC/YR) 0.0686 0.2200
(> 1.1 p.u.) D(H/OC) 14.7 15.2
Voltage F(OC/YR) 0.0000 0.0000
Convergence
> 1.1 p.u. D(H/OC) 0.0 0.0
Voltage F(OC/YR) 0.1220 0.1170
< 0.9 p.u. D(H/OC) 14.9 15.2
F(OC/YR) 0.0002 0.0720
Voltage collapse
D(H/OC) 7.6 15.2
F(OC/YR) 0.1373 1.0380
Not-convergence
D(H/OC) 15.2 15.2
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F(OC/YR) 0.3261 1.3300

System
D(H/OC) 15.0 15.2

Table 11 Probabilistic results of raising N-2 to N-3 criteria

Contingency LLL ULL
Overload F(OC/YR) 0.0000 0.0000
(> 1.1 p.u.) D(H/OC) 0.0 8.6
Voltage F(OC/YR) 0.0000 0.0000
Convergence
> 1.1 p.u. D(H/OC) 0.0 0.0
Voltage F(OC/YR) 0.0000 0.0000
< 0.9 p.u. D(H/OC) 0.0 8.6
F(OC/YR) 0.0000 0.0000
Voltage collapse
D(H/OC) 0.0 0.0
F(OC/YR) 0.0001 0.1564
Not-converge
D(H/OC) 8.6 17.3
F(OC/YR) 0.0001 0.1564
System
D(H/OC) 8.6 17.3

0.4650 for the N-1 contingencies. In addition, the (ii) Upgrade of N-1 & N-2 to N-2 & N-3 Criteria
system frequency index is 1.0420 (0.577 + 0.4650)
in total for the N-1 contingencies. The N-1 and N-2 contingency criteria are consid-
In Table 9, only the EHV transformers are taken ered for upgrading to N-2 and N-3, respectively, for the
into account in the N-2 contingencies. The symbol system reliability assessment in 2006. Here, the N-2 cri-
“UT” means that one maximum generator and one trans- terion is applied to the 161 kV transmission lines and
former are out. The symbol “LT” denotes that one 345 kV transmission lines are examined by the N-3
line and one transformer are tripped. The symbol “TT” criteria. The reliability assessment in 2006 is shown in
signifies that there are two transformer outages. It was Tables 10 and 11 by considering the stricter criteria.
found that there are voltage collapses in the UT, LT As shown in Table 10, for the 161 kV transmis-
and TT conditions. In particular, 89 possible voltage sion lines, the system frequency indices are 0.3261
collapses occur under the LT conditions and 92 occur and 1.3300 for the LL and UL cases, respectively.
under the TT conditions. For the N-2 contingencies, Although the voltage collapse frequency per year is
the total system frequency index is 1.6172 which is only 0.0002 in the LL cases, there are 52 contingen-
mainly caused by transformer outages. Hence, it is cies which could lead to voltage collapse. This means
essential to consider the transformer outages as fac- that the 161 kV transmission lines cannot meet the
tors in developing new planning criteria. N-2 criteria due to many voltage collapses.
 106 Journal of the Chinese Institute of Engineers, Vol. 29, No. 1 (2006)

Table 12 Probabilistic results of N-1-1

Contingency Type 1 Type 2 Type 3
Overload F(OC/YR) 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
(> 1.1 p.u.) D(H/OC) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Voltage F(OC/YR) 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Convergence
1.1 p.u. D(H/OC) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Voltage F(OC/YR) 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
< 0.9 p.u. D(H/OC) 0.0 0.0 0.0
F(OC/YR) 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Voltage collapse
D(H/OC) 0.0 0.0 0.0
F(OC/YR) 0.0010 0.1412 0.0271
Not-convergence
D(H/OC) 14.50 17.2 17.2
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F(OC/YR) 0.0010 0.1412 0.0271

System
D(H/OC) 14.50 17.2 17.2

In the 345 kV transmission lines, the LLL and Table 13 Probabilistic results of N-1-2
ULL cases are considered as shown in Table 11. The Overload F(OC/YR) 0.0000
system frequency index is 0.0001 for the LLL cases (> 1.1 p.u.) D(H/OC) 0.0
and 0.1564 for the ULL cases. For the N-3 contingencies,
Voltage F(OC/YR) 0.0000
2 possible cases cause voltage collapse. That’s two Convergence
> 1.1 p.u. D(H/OC) 0.0
transmission circuits from EHV Nanko to EHV North
of Kungchi and one transmission line from EHV Chiamin Voltage F(OC/YR) 0.0000
to EHV Nanko are tripped. These simulation results < 0.9 p.u. D(H/OC) 0.0
imply that the sixth transmission and substation ex- F(OC/YR) 0.0000
pansion project enhances the reliability of the com- Voltage collapse
D(H/OC) 0.0
posite power system for most of the N-3 contingencies.
F(OC/YR) 0.0056
Not-convergence
(iii) Sequential Contingencies D(H/OC) 14.5
F(OC/YR) 0.0056
System
The above N-2 and N-3 contingencies are D(H/OC) 14.5
assumed to be in conditions of scheduled/forced si-
multaneous outages. For more realistic simulation,
N-1-1 and N-1-2 contingency analyses for the phe-
nomena of sequential outages are studied. The results the frequency index.
of the N-1-1 (N-1-2) contingencies are comparable to On the other hand, the N-1-2 contingencies mean
those of the N-2 (N-3) contingencies. that one element is in a condition of scheduled/forced
The N-1-1 contingencies mean that two elements outage first and then other two elements trip. It is
in the system suffer outages sequentially. There are impossible to illustrate all simulation results in this
three types of N-1-1 contingencies discussed for the paper because there are too many combinations for
2006 transmission system. Type 1 is a transmission the N-1-2 contingencies. The probabilistic results are
line outage following a maximum generator outage; shown in Table 13 for the case in which two line out-
for this type, the system frequency index is 0.0010. ages follow one maximum generator outage for the
Type 2 is related to a maximum generator outage fol- 2006 system. It is found the N-1-2 contingencies are
lowing a transmission line outage; for this condition, less severe.
the system frequency index is 0.1412. Type 3 con-
cerns a transmission line outage following another trans- V. CONCLUSIONS
mission line outage; for this case, the system frequency
index is 0.0271. The probabilistic results are shown In this paper, the reliabilities of the 2003 and
in Table 12. It can be found that, the N-1-1 contin- 2006 Taipower composite systems are assessed. The
gencies (0.0010 + 0.1412 + 0.0271 = 0.1693) are less reliability assessments are represented by both deter-
severe than the N-2 contingencies (0.1560 + 0.0662 ministic and probabilistic results, including security
= 0.2222, as shown in Table 6) from the viewpoint of and voltage stability analyses. Compared to the
 L. H. Lee et al.: Reliability Assessment for Taipower’s Composite System-Case Studies 107

system in 2003, the system with the sixth transmis- p s(failure) probability of the system failure in se-
sion and substation expansion project becomes more ries type
reliable in 2006 due to the following factors: r failure time
1. New expansion generators located in northern and R average times of the “DOWN” states (=
central Taiwan help balance the supply with respect the reciprocal of µ )
to the demand. T period of time (M plus R)
2. There are 6 main transmission lines in the 345 kV x vector of the state variables (bus volt-
north-south EHV transmission lines. Four trans- age magnitudes and phase angles)
mission lines are able to carry the total electric λ failure rate
power needed if 2 transmission lines have tripped. µ repair rate
3. Many substations and transmission lines are
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