Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland

Worked solutions
Chapter 8 Binomial distributions
Exercise 8.1 Discrete probability distributions review
TF Technology free question

TF 1 Two fair dice are rolled. Let X be the difference between the two dice.

(a) Construct the probability distribution of X . Express the probabilities as fractions in simplest
form.

x 0 1 2 3 4 5

P ( X = x)

Worked solution
The sample space is:
 (1,1) , (1, 2 ) , (1,3) , (1, 4 ) , (1,5) , (1, 6 ) , 

( 2,1) , ( 2, 2 ) , ( 2,3) , ( 2, 4 ) , ( 2,5) , ( 2, 6 ) ,
( 3,1) , ( 3, 2 ) , ( 3,3) , ( 3, 4 ) , ( 3,5) , ( 3, 6 ) , 

( 4,1) , ( 4, 2 ) , ( 4,3) , ( 4, 4 ) , ( 4,5) , ( 4, 6 ) ,
( 5,1) , ( 5, 2 ) , ( 5,3) , ( 5, 4 ) , ( 5,5) , ( 5, 6 ) , 
 
( 6,1) , ( 6, 2 ) , ( 6,3) , ( 6, 4 ) , ( 6,5) , ( 6, 6 ) 
The difference values are:
0 1 2 53 4
1 0 1 4 
2 3

2 1 0 31 2
 
3 2 1 20 1
4 3 20 11
 
5 4 3 2 1 0
6
P ( X= 0=
)
36
1
=
6

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
10
)
P ( X= 1=
36
5
=
18
8
P ( X= 2=
)
36
2
=
9
6
P ( X= 3=
)
36
1
=
6
4
P ( X= 4=
)
36
1
=
9
2
P ( X= 5=
)
36
1
=
18
Answer
x 0 1 2 3 4 5

P ( X = x) 1 5 2 1 1 1
6 18 9 6 9 18

(b) Determine the following probabilities.

(i) The difference is between 1 and 3 inclusive.

Worked solution
P (1 ≤ X ≤ 3) =
P( X = 2) P ( X =
1) + P ( X =+ 3)
5 4 3
= + +
18 18 18
12
=
18
2
=
3
2
The probability that the difference is between 1 and 3 inclusive is .
3

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
Answer
2
3
(ii) The difference is no more than 4 .

Worked solution
P ( X ≤ 4 ) =−
1 P ( X =5 )
1
= 1−
18
17
=
18
17
The probability that the difference is no more than 4 is .
18
Answer
17
18

TF 2 A spinner with the numbers 1 to 5 is spun and a coin is flipped. The result of each trial is given a
numerical value of:

• double the number if an odd number is spun and the coin toss lands on heads

• the number squared if an even number is spun and the coin toss lands on tails

• 0 otherwise.

(a) Construct a probability distribution table for X . Express the probabilities as decimals.
Worked solution
The sample space is:
H,1 H, 2 H,3 H, 4 H,5
 
 T,1 T, 2 T,3 T, 4 T,5 
The recorded values are:
2 0 6 0 10
0 4 0 16 0
5
P ( X= 0=
)
10
= 0.5
1
(X =
Also: P= 2 ) P=
(X =
4 ) P=
(X =
6 ) P=
(X =
10 ) P=
(X =
16 ) = 0.1
10

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
Answer
x 0 2 4 6 10 16

P ( X = x) 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

(b) Determine the following probabilities.

(i) The recorded value is a square number.

Worked solution
P( X =
P ( square ) = 16 )
4) + P ( X =
= 0.1 + 0.1
= 0. 2
The probability that the recorded value is a square number is 0.2 .
Answer
0.2
(ii) The recorded value is at least 10 .

Worked solution
P ( X ≥ 1=
0 ) P (=
X 10 ) + P ( X = 16 )
= 0.1 + 0.1
= 0.2
The probability that the recorded value is at least 10 is 0.2 .
Answer
0.2
(iii) The recorded value is even.

Worked solution
P ( even ) =
P( X =
0) + P ( X =
2) + P ( X =
4) + P ( X =
6) + P ( X =
10 ) + P ( X =
16 )
= 0.5 + 0.1 + 0.1 + 0.1 + 0.1 + 0.1
=1
The probability that the recorded value is even is 1 , because all possible recorded values are
even.
Answer
1

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
3 Consider the following probability distribution.

x 7 9 10 15

P ( X = x) 0.5 0.1 0.23 0.17

Determine the following values.

(a) E(X )

Worked solution
E ( X ) = ∑ xi pi
= ( 7 × 0.5 ) + ( 9 × 0.1) + (10 × 0.23) + (15 × 0.17 )
= 9.25
Answer
E ( X ) = 9.25

(b) Var (X)

Worked solution
E ( X 2 ) = ( 49 × 0.5) + ( 81 × 0.1) + (100 × 0.23) + ( 225 × 0.17 )
= 93.85

( X ) E ( X 2 ) − ( E ( X ))
2
=
Var
= 93.85 − 9.252
= 8.2875
Answer
Var (X) = 8.2875

(c) the standard deviation of X , correct to 2 decimal places

Worked solution

σ = Var ( X )
= 8.2875
= 2.88 ( 2 d.p.)
The standard deviation is 2.88 .
Answer
σ = 2.88

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
2
4 Giles is about to take two shots at goal. From past performance his chance of scoring a goal is each
5
time he takes a shot.

(a) Construct a probability distribution table for X , the number of goals scored out of two attempts.
Worked solution
P ( X= 0=
) P ( miss, miss )
3 3
= ×
5 5
9
=
25
P ( X= 1=
) P ( score, miss ) + P ( miss,score )
2 3 3 2
= × + ×
5 5 5 5
12
=
25
) P ( score,score )
P ( X= 2=
2 2
= ×
5 5
4
=
25
Answer
x 0 1 2

P ( X = x) 9 12 4
25 25 25

(b) Determine the following values as decimals, correct to 2 decimal places where necessary.

(i) E(X )

Worked solution
E ( X ) = ∑ xi pi
 9   12   4 
= 0 ×  + 1×  +  2 × 
 25   25   25 
= 0.8
Answer
E ( X ) = 0.8

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland

(ii) Var ( X )

Worked solution
 9   12   4 
E ( X 2 ) = 0 ×  +  1 ×  +  4 × 
 25   25   25 
= 1.12

( X ) E ( X 2 ) − ( E ( X ))
2
=
Var
= 1.12 − 0.82
= 0.48
Answer
Var (X) = 0.48
(iii) the standard deviation of X

Worked solution

σ = Var ( X )
= 0.48
= 0.69 ( 2 d.p.)
The standard deviation is 0.69 .
Answer
σ = 0.69

5 Variable X has the probability distribution:

x −4 −3 −2 −1

P ( X = x) 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.3

(a) What is the standard deviation of X ?

A 1.16 B −1.16 C 10.84 D 1.16

Worked solution
E ( X ) = ∑ xi pi
= ( −4 × 0.2 ) + ( −3 × 0.1) + ( −2 × 0.4 ) + ( −1 × 0.3)
= −0.8 − 0.3 − 0.8 − 0.3
= −2.2

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland

E ( X 2 ) = ∑ xi pi
=(16 × 0.2 ) + ( 9 × 0.1) + ( 4 × 0.4 ) + (1 × 0.3)
= 3.2 + 0.9 + 1.6 + 0.3
=6

( X ) E ( X 2 ) − ( E ( X ))
2
=
Var

= 6 − ( −2.2 )
2

= 1.16

σ = Var ( X )
= 1.16

The standard deviation is 1.16 .

The correct option is A.
Answer
A

(b) Explain the common error made by a student who chose the second incorrect option.
Worked solution
The second incorrect option is C: 10.84 .
The student has forgotten the bracket when squaring the negative value of E ( X ) , so

( )
E X 2 − ( E ( X ) ) = 6 − ( −2.2 )
2 2

= 6 − 4.84
= 1.16
Answer
6 − ( −2.2 ) = 6 − 4.84 , not 6 + 4.84
2

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
6 Two spinners are spun. One spinner X has the following probability distribution.

x 1 2 3 4

P ( X = x) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

The other spinner Y has the following probability distribution.

y 1 2 3 4 5

P (Y = y ) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1

Calculate E ( X ) + E (Y ) and E ( X + Y ) separately to show that E ( X + Y=

) E ( X ) + E (Y ) .
Worked solution
E ( X ) = 1 × 0.4 + 2 × 0.3 + 3 × 0.2 + 4 × 0.1
= 0.4 + 0.6 + 0.6 + 0.4
=2
E (Y ) =×
1 0.1 + 2 × 0.2 + 3 × 0.4 + 4 × 0.2 + 5 × 0.1
= 0.1 + 0.4 + 1.2 + 0.8 + 0.5
=3
E ( X ) + E (Y ) =
2+3
=5
Consider spinning X then Y.

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland

X +Y X

1 2 3 4

1 2 : 0.04 3 : 0.03 4 : 0.02 5 : 0.01

2 3 : 0.08 4 : 0.06 5 : 0.04 6 : 0.02

Y
3 4 : 0.16 5 : 0.12 6 : 0.08 7 : 0.04

4 5 : 0.08 6 : 0.06 7 : 0.04 8 : 0.02

5 6 : 0.04 7 : 0.03 8 : 0.02 9 : 0.01

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland

z 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

P( X +Y =z) 0.04 0.11 0.24 0.25 0.2 0.11 0.04 0.01

E ( X + Y ) = 2 × 0.04 + 3 × 0.11 + 4 × 0.24 + 5 × 0.25 + 6 × 0.2 + 7 × 0.11 + 8 × 0.04 + 9 × 0.01

= 0.08 + 0.33 + 0.96 + 1.25 + 1.2 + 0.77 + 0.32 + 0.09
=5
So E ( X + Y=
) E ( X ) + E (Y )
Answer
E ( X ) = 2 , E (Y ) = 3 , E ( X + Y ) =
5

TF 7 Consider the probability distributions. What is the transformation that has occurred?

x 0 1 2 3

P ( X = x) 7 1 1 1
18 6 9 3

y 32 31.8 31.6 31.4

P (Y = y ) 7 1 1 1
18 6 9 3

A =
Y 5 X + 32 B =Y 0.2 X − 32

C Y =
−0.2 X + 32 D Y= 32 + 0.2 X
Worked solution
Y ≤ 32 so Y =
−0.2 X + 32 is the only possibility.
The correct option is C.
Answer
C

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
TF 8 Transform the probability distribution according to the given rules.

x 1 3 5 8 9

P ( X = x) 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.05 0.15

(a) =Y 0.5 X + 40
Worked solution
=Y 0.5 X + 40
y 0.5 (1) + 40
x =1, = = 40.5

y 0.5 ( 3) + 40
x = 3, = = 41.5

y 0.5 ( 5) + 40
x = 5, = = 42.5

y 0.5 (8) + 40
x =8, = = 44

y 0.5 ( 9 ) + 40
x = 9, = = 44.5
Answer
y 40.5 41.5 42.5 44 44.5

P (Y = y ) 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.05 0.15

(b) =
Y 30 X − 18
Worked solution
=
Y 30 X − 18
y 30 (1) − 18
x =1, = = 12

y 30 ( 3) − 18
x = 3, = = 72

y 30 ( 5 ) − 18
x = 5, = = 132

y 30 ( 8 ) − 18
x = 8, = = 222

y 30 ( 9 ) − 18
x=9, = = 252

Answer
y 12 72 132 222 252

P (Y = y ) 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.05 0.15

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(c) =
Y 100 − 0.1X
Worked solution
=
Y 100 − 0.1X
100 − 0.1(1) =
x =1, y = 99.9

100 − 0.1( 3) =
x = 3, y = 99.7

100 − 0.1( 5 ) =
x = 5, y = 99.5

100 − 0.1( 8 ) =
x = 8, y = 99.2

100 − 0.1( 9 ) =
x=9, y = 99.1

Answer
y 99.9 99.7 99.5 99.2 99.1

P (Y = y ) 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.05 0.15

(d) =
Y 2X − 5
Worked solution
=
Y 2X − 5
x = 1 , y =2 (1) − 5 =−3

y 2 ( 3) −=
x = 3, = 5 1

y 2 ( 5 ) −=
x = 5, = 5 5

y 2 ( 8 ) −=
x = 8, = 5 11

y 2 ( 9 ) −=
x=9, = 5 13

Answer
y −3 1 5 11 13

P (Y = y ) 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.05 0.15

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
9 A standard 52 -card deck is reduced to 18 by removing all number cards below 10 as well as the
black tens. Two cards are drawn without replacement.

(a) Construct a tree diagram to determine the sample space in terms of the suits: H (hearts),
D (diamonds), S (spades) and C (clubs). Write probabilities on the branches of the tree
diagram. Your answer does not need to include the probabilities for the paired outcomes.
Worked solution
Red suits: H (hearts) and D (diamonds) are reduced to 5 cards each.
Black suits: S (spades) and C (clubs)) are reduced to 4 cards each.
5 4
( H ) P=
Original probabilities: P= ( D) (S) P=
, P= (C)
18 18
After the first card is removed, there are 17 cards left.
The number of cards remaining for each suit is reduced by one only if that suit was already
drawn. Otherwise the number of cards remains the same.
Answer

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(b) Construct a probability distribution table for X , the number of clubs drawn.
Worked solution
) P ( CC )
P ( X= 2=
4 3
= ×
18 17
2
=
51
P( X =
1) =
P ( CH ) + P ( CD ) + P ( CS) + P ( HC ) + P ( DC ) + P ( SC )
4 5 4 5 4 4 5 4 5 4 4 4
= × + × + × + × + × + ×
18 17 18 17 18 17 18 17 18 17 18 17
56
=
153
P( X = 1− ( P ( X =
0) = 1) )
2) + P ( X =
 2 56 
= 1−  + 
 51 153 
91
=
153
Answer
x 0 1 2

P( X = x ) 91 56 2
153 153 51

(c) Determine the probability that both cards are red.

Worked solution
P ( both red ) = P ( HH ) + P ( HD ) + P ( DD ) + P ( DH )
5 4 5 5 5 4 5 5
= × + × + × + ×
18 17 18 17 18 17 18 17
5
=
17
5
The probability that both cards are red is .
17
Answer
5
17

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(d) Determine the probability of drawing at least one red card from the pack.
Worked solution
P ( at least 1 red ) = 1 − P ( both black )
1 − ( P ( CC ) + P ( CS) + P ( SS) + P ( SC ) )
=
 4 3 4 4 4 3 4 4
=−1  × + × + × + × 
 18 17 18 17 18 17 18 17 
28
= 1−
153
125
=
153
125
The probability of drawing at least one red card from the pack is .
153
Answer
125
153

(e) Determine the probability that both cards are clubs, given that both are black.
Worked solution
P ( CC )
P ( CC| both black ) =
P ( both black )
P ( CC )
=
P ( CC ) + P ( CS) + P ( SS) + P ( SC )
4
× 173
= 18
4
18
× 173 + 184 × 4
17
+ 184 × 173 + 184 × 174
12
=
56
3
=
14
3
The probability that both cards are clubs given that both are black is .
14
Answer
3
14

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
TF 10 Ina game, two spinners numbered 1 to 5 are spun. If the numbers are the same, then X is the number
displayed on both spinners. If one number is odd and the other is even, then X is the difference
between the numbers. Otherwise, X is the sum of the numbers.

(a) Draw a table to show the probability distribution of X . Express the probabilities as fractions.
Worked solution
The sample space is:
1,1 1, 2 1,3 1, 4 1,5 
2,1 2, 2 2,3 2, 4 2,5
 
3,1 3, 2 3,3 3, 4 3,5 
4,1 4, 2 4,3 4, 4 4,5
 
5,1 5, 2 5,3 5, 4 5,5 
This gives the X values:
1 1 4 3 6
1 2 1 6 3
 
4 1 3 1 8
3 6 1 4 1
 
6 3 8 1 5 
9
P ( X= 1=
)
25
) P ( X= 5)
P ( X= 2=
1
=
25
5
P ( X= 3=
)
25
1
=
5
3
P ( X= 4=
)
25
4
P ( X= 6=
)
25
2
P ( X= 8=
)
25

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
Answer
x 1 2 3 4 5 6 8

P ( X = x) 9 1 1 3 1 4 2
25 25 5 25 25 25 25

(b) Calculate the following probabilities.

(i) P ( X < 8)

Worked solution
P ( X < 8 ) =1 − P ( X =8 )
2
= 1−
25
23
=
25
Answer
23
25
(ii) P ( X = 5 | X is odd )

Worked solution
P ( X = 5)
=P ( X 5=
| X is odd )
P ( X =+
1) P ( X =+3) P ( X =
5)
1
= 25
9
25
+ 5
25
+ 251
1
=
15
Note: On the numerator you do not need to stipulate that X must be odd because {5} is a subset
of the odd numbers.
Answer
1
15

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(iii) P ( X = 3 | same number on both spinners )

Worked solution
P ( X = 3 and same number on both spinners )
P(X | same number on both spinners )
3=
P ( same number on both spinners )
1
=
5
Answer
1
5

11 Consider the probability distribution.

x 1 2 5 8

P ( X = x) 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3

(a) Determine the expected value, variance and standard deviation, correct to 2 decimal places,
where necessary.
Worked solution
For the original distribution:
E ( X ) = ∑ xi pi
=(1× 0.2 ) + ( 2 × 0.4 ) + ( 5 × 0.1) + (8 × 0.3)
= 3.9

( )
E X 2 = ∑ xi pi

( ) ( ) (
= 12 × 0.2 + 22 × 0.4 + 52 × 0.1 + 82 × 0.3 ) ( )
= 23.5

( )
( X ) E X 2 − ( E ( X ))
2
=
Var
= 23.5 − 3.92
= 8.29
σ = 8.29
= 2.88 ( 2 d.p.)

The expected value is 3.9 , the variance is 8.29 and the standard deviation is 2.88 .
Answer
expected value: 3.9 ; variance: 8.29 ; standard deviation: 2.88

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(b) Use your answers from part (a) to determine the expected value, variance and standard deviation
of each of the following distributions.
(i)

y 10 20 50 80

P (Y = y ) 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3

Worked solution
From part (a): E ( X ) = 3.9 , Var ( X ) = 8.29 , σ ( X ) = 2.88

By inspection, Y = 10 X
E ( aX +=
b ) aE ( X ) + b
E (10 X ) = 10 E ( X )
E (Y =
) 10 × 3.9
= 39
a 2Var ( X )
Var ( aX + b ) =
Var (10 X ) = 102Var ( X )
Var (Y=) 100 × 8.29
= 829
σ ( aX + b ) =a σ (X )
σ (10 X ) = 10σ ( X )
σ (Y =
) 10 × 2.88
= 28.8
The expected value is 39 , the variance is 829 and the standard deviation is 28.8 .
Answer
expected value: 39 ; variance: 829 ; standard deviation: 28.8
(ii)

z 61 62 65 68

P(Z = z) 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3

Worked solution
From part (a): E ( X ) = 3.9 , Var ( X ) = 8.29 , σ ( X ) = 2.88

By inspection, Y= X + 60

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
E ( aX +=
b ) aE ( X ) + b
E ( X + 60 )= E ( X ) + 60
E (Y=
) 3.9 + 60
= 63.9
a 2Var ( X )
Var ( aX + b ) =
Var ( X + 60 ) =
Var ( X )
Var (Y ) = 8.29

σ ( aX + b ) =a σ (X )
σ ( X + 60 ) =
σ (X )
σ (Y ) = 2.88
The expected value is 63.9 , the variance is 8.29 and the standard deviation is 2.88 . The
variance and the standard deviation are unchanged.
Answer
expected value: 63.9 ; variance: 8.29 ; standard deviation: 2.88
(iii)

w 2 7 22 37

P (W = w ) 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3

Worked solution
E ( X ) = 3.9 , Var ( X ) = 8.29 , σ ( X ) = 2.88
= aX + b :
Assume a linear relationship in the form W
(1, 2 ) , ( 2,7 )
y − y1= m ( x − x1 )
7−2
W=
−2 ( x − 1)
2 −1
2 5 ( X − 1)
W −=
W= 5 X − 5 + 2
= 5X − 3
W
Checking ( 5, 22 ) :

W = 5 × 5 + −3
= 22

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
Checking ( 8,37 ) :

W = 5 × 8 + −3
= 37
E ( aX +=
b ) aE ( X ) + b
3) 5E ( X ) − 3
E ( 5 X −=
E (W ) =×
5 3.9 − 3
= 16.5
Var ( aX + b ) =
a 2Var ( X )
Var ( 5 X − 3) =
52Var ( X )
Var (W=
) 25 × 8.29
= 207.25
σ ( aX + b ) =a σ (X )
5σ ( X )
σ ( 5 X − 3) =
σ (Y )= 5 × 2.88
= 14.4
The expected value is 16.5 , the variance is 207.25 and the standard deviation is 14.4 .
Answer
expected value: 16.5 ; variance: 207.25 ; standard deviation: 14.4

12 By first transforming X to simpler values, determine the expected value and variance of the
following probability distribution.

x 17.01 17.02 17.03 17.04

P ( X = x) 0.35 0.45 0.15 0.05

Worked solution
Let the transformed distribution be:
y 1 2 3 4

P (Y = y ) 0.35 0.45 0.15 0.05

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
So:
Y = ( X − 17 ) × 100
Y
= X − 17
100
= X 0.01Y + 17
E (Y ) = ∑ yi pi
(1 0.35) + ( 2 × 0.45) + ( 3 × 0.15) + ( 4 × 0.05)
=×
= 1.9
( Y ) E (Y 2 ) − ( E ( Y ) )
2
=
Var
(1 0.35) + ( 4 × 0.45) + ( 9 × 0.15) + (16 × 0.05) − 1.92
=×
= 0.69
E ( aY +=
b ) aE (Y ) + b
E ( 0.01Y +=
17 ) 0.01E (Y ) + 17
E (W ) = 0.01 × 1.9 + 17
= 17.019
Var ( aY + b ) =
a 2Var (Y )
Var ( 0.01Y + 17 ) =
0.012Var (Y )
( X ) 0.0001 × 0.69
Var=
= 0.000 069
The expected value of X is 17.019 .
The variance of X is 0.000 069 .
Answer
expected value: 17.019 ; variance: 0.000 069

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
13 The probability distribution of X is given by:

k ( 9 − 2 x ) if x ∈ {0,1, 2,3, 4}
) 
P ( X= x=
0 for all other values of x

Determine the following values.

(a) k , as a fraction
Worked solution
A table for this distribution:
x 0 1 2 3 4

P ( X = x) 9k 7k 5k 3k k

9k + 7 k + 5k + 3k + k =1
25k = 1
1
k=
25
Answer
1
k=
25

(b) E ( X ) , as a decimal

Worked solution
1
Using k = , a table for this distribution:
20
x 0 1 2 3 4

P ( X = x) 9 7 5 3 1
25 25 25 25 25

9 7 5 3 1
E ( X ) =0 × + 1× + 2 × + 3 × + 4 ×
25 25 25 25 25
= 1.2
Answer
E ( X ) = 1.2

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(c) Var ( X ) , as a decimal

Worked solution

E ( X 2 ) =0 ×
9 7 5 3 1
+ 1 × + 4 × + 9 × + 16 ×
25 25 25 25 25
= 2.8
From part (b): E ( X ) = 1.2

( X ) E ( X 2 ) − ( E ( X ))
2
=
Var

= 2.8 − (1.2 )
2

= 1.36
Answer
Var (X) =1.36

(d) σ , correct to 4 decimal places

Worked solution
From part (c): Var ( X ) = 1.36

σ = Var ( X )
= 1.36
= 1.1662 ( 4 d.p.)
Answer
σ = 1.1662

14 A die is biased so that the probability of obtaining each number is given by the function:

k (15 − 2 x ) if x ∈ {1, 2,3, 4,5, 6}

P ( X= x=
) 
0 for all other values of x

The die is rolled twice and Y is the difference of the two results.

(a) Draw a table to show the probability distribution of Y . Express the probabilities as fractions in
simplest form.
Worked solution
A table for this distribution:
x 1 2 3 4 5 6

P ( X = x) 13k 11k 9k 7k 5k 3k

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
13k + 11k + 9k + 7k + 5k + 3k =1
48k = 1
1
k=
48
x 1 2 3 4 5 6

P ( X = x) 13 11 9 7 5 3
48 48 48 48 48 48

Write out the sample space, but remember that these 36 outcomes are not equally likely.
 (1,1) , (1, 2 ) , (1,3) , (1, 4 ) , (1,5) , (1, 6 ) , 

( 2,1) , ( 2, 2 ) , ( 2,3) , ( 2, 4 ) , ( 2,5) , ( 2, 6 ) ,
( 3,1) , ( 3, 2 ) , ( 3,3) , ( 3, 4 ) , ( 3,5) , ( 3, 6 ) , 

( 4,1) , ( 4, 2 ) , ( 4,3) , ( 4, 4 ) , ( 4,5) , ( 4, 6 ) ,
( 5,1) , ( 5, 2 ) , ( 5,3) , ( 5, 4 ) , ( 5,5) , ( 5, 6 ) , 
 
( 6,1) , ( 6, 2 ) , ( 6,3) , ( 6, 4 ) , ( 6,5) , ( 6, 6 ) 
P (Y = P ( (1,1) ) + P ( ( 2, 2 ) ) + P ( ( 3,3) ) + P ( ( 4, 4 ) ) + P ( ( 5,5 ) ) + P ( ( 6, 6 ) )
0) =
13 13 11 11 9 9 7 7 5 5 3 3
= × + × + × + × + × + ×
48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
454
=
2304
227
=
1152
P (Y = 1) = P ( (1, 2 ) ) × 2 + P ( ( 2,3) ) × 2 + P ( ( 3, 4 ) ) × 2 + P ( ( 4,5 ) ) × 2 + P ( ( 5, 6 ) ) × 2
 13 11 11 9 9 7 7 5 5 3 
=  × + × + × + × + × × 2
 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 
710
=
2304
355
=
1152

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland

P (Y = 2 ) = P ( (1,3) ) × 2 + P ( ( 2, 4 ) ) × 2 + P ( ( 3,5 ) ) × 2 + P ( ( 4, 6 ) ) × 2
 13 9 11 7 9 5 7 3 
=  × + × + × + × × 2
 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 
520
=
2304
65
=
288
P (Y = 3) = P ( (1, 4 ) ) × 2 + P ( ( 2,5 ) ) × 2 + P ( ( 3, 6 ) ) × 2
 13 7 11 5 9 3 
=  × + × + × × 2
 48 48 48 48 48 48 
346
=
2304
173
=
1152
P (Y = 4 ) = P ( (1,5 ) ) × 2 + P ( ( 2, 6 ) ) × 2
 13 5 11 3 
=  × + × × 2
 48 48 48 48 
196
=
2304
49
=
576
) P ( (1, 6 ) ) × 2
P (Y= 5=
 13 3 
=  × × 2
 48 48 
78
=
2304
13
=
384
Answer
y 0 1 2 3 4 5

P (Y = y ) 227 355 65 173 49 13

1152 1152 288 1152 576 384

Copyright © Pearson Australia 2019 (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) ISBN 978 1 4886 2142 0 Page 27
 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(b) Calculate E (Y ) , correct to 2 decimal places.

Worked solution
y 0 1 2 3 4 5

P (Y = y ) 227 355 65 173 49 13

1152 1152 288 1152 576 384

227 355 65 173 49 13

E (Y ) = 0× + 1× + 2× + 3× + 4× + 5×
1152 1152 288 1152 576 384
= 1.72 ( 2 d.p.)
Answer
E (Y ) = 1.72

(c) Determine a single swap of values on the faces of the die such that the value of E (Y ) will
increase. Explain the reason for your choice and demonstrate, by calculations, that the swap was
successful.
Worked solution
The extreme values of X , 1 and 6 produce the biggest differences overall, so try to maximise
the size of their probabilities.
P ( X = 1) is already the highest value, whereas P ( X = 6 ) is the lowest.
Swap 6 to the position with the next greatest probability of occurring (2).
x 1 2 3 4 5 6

P ( X = x) 13 9 3 7 5 11
48 48 48 48 48 48

227
P (Y= 0=
) , unchanged by the swap
1152
P (Y = 1) = P ( (1, 2 ) ) × 2 + P ( ( 2,3) ) × 2 + P ( ( 3, 4 ) ) × 2 + P ( ( 4,5 ) ) × 2 + P ( ( 5, 6 ) ) × 2
 13 3 3 9 9 7 7 5 5 11 
=  × + × + × + × + × ×2
 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 
438
=
2304
73
=
384

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland

P (Y = 2 ) = P ( (1,3) ) × 2 + P ( ( 2, 4 ) ) × 2 + P ( ( 3,5 ) ) × 2 + P ( ( 4, 6 ) ) × 2
 13 9 3 7 9 5 7 11 
=  × + × + × + × ×2
 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 
520
=
2304
65
=
288
P (Y = 3) = P ( (1, 4 ) ) × 2 + P ( ( 2,5 ) ) × 2 + P ( ( 3, 6 ) ) × 2
 13 7 3 5 9 11 
=  × + × + × ×2
 48 48 48 48 48 48 
410
=
2304
205
=
1152
P (Y = 4 ) = P ( (1,5 ) ) × 2 + P ( ( 2, 6 ) ) × 2
 13 5 3 11 
=  × + × ×2
 48 48 48 48 
196
=
2304
49
=
576
) P ( (1, 6 ) ) × 2
P (Y= 5=
 13 11 
=  × ×2
 48 48 
286
=
2304
143
=
1152
73 65 205 49 143
E (Y ) = 0 + 1 × + 2× + 3× + 4× + 5×
384 288 1152 576 1152
= 2.13 ( 2 d.p.)

E (Y ) > E ( X )
2.13 > 1.72
Therefore, the swap was successful.
Answer
Possible answer: swap 6 with 2; E (Y ) = 2.13

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
15 A tennis tournament is to be played with a match won when one player is two sets ahead, or five sets
have been played. By how much will the expected number of sets increase if the players are equally
matched compared to a match where the win ratio for the pair is 7 : 3 ?
Worked solution
Let A represent a win by one person and B represent a win by the other.
Sample space:
{AA , ABAA , ABABA , ABABB , ABBAA , ABBAB , ABBB

BB , BABB , BABAB , BABAA , BAABB , BAABA , BAAA}

1
( A ) P=
For the equally matched players, P= ( B) .
2
Let X be the number of sets played:
P ( X= 2=
) P ( AA ) + P ( BB)
2 2
1 1
=   + 
2 2
1
=
2
P(X = P ( ABAA ) + P ( BABB) + P ( ABBB ) + P ( BAAA )
4) =
4 4 4 4
1 1 1 1
=   +  +  + 
2 2 2 2
1
=
4
P( X =
5) =
P ( ABABA ) + P ( ABABB ) + P ( ABBAA ) + P ( ABBAB )
+ P ( BABAB ) + P ( BABAA ) + P ( BAABB ) + P ( BAABA )
5
1
=   ×8
2
1
=
4
Check that probabilities add to 1 .
The probability distribution is given in the table:
x 2 4 5

P ( X = x) 1 1 1
2 4 4

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
1 1 1
E ( X ) =2 × + 4 × + 5×
2 4 4
= 3.25
The average number of sets they play in a match is 3.25 .
7 3
For the pair with win ratio 7 : 3 , let P ( A ) = , so P ( B) = .
10 10
Let Y be the number of sets played:
P (Y= 2=
) P ( AA ) + P ( BB)
2 2
 7  3
=   + 
 10   10 
= 0.58
P (Y = P ( ABAA ) + P ( BABB) + P ( ABBB ) + P ( BAAA )
4) =
 3  7 3 7  3 3 
=    +   ×2
 10  10  10  10  
 
= 0.2436
P (Y = P ( ABABA ) + P ( ABABB) + P ( ABBAA ) + P ( ABBAB)
5) =
+ P ( BABAB) + P ( BABAA ) + P ( BAABB) + P ( BAABA )
  7 3  3  2  7  2  3 3 
=     +     ×4
  10   10   10   10  
 
= 0.1764
Check that probabilities add to 1 .
The probability distribution is given in the table:
y 2 4 5

P (Y = y ) 0.58 0.2436 0.1764

E (Y ) = 2 × 0.58 + 4 × 0.2436 + 5 × 0.1764

= 3.0164
The average number of sets they play in a match is 3.0164 .
This seems reasonable, because with a more dominant player there is a higher likelihood of an
early 2–love win, and it is less likely that the weaker player can last for five sets. The probability
of four- or five-set games is reduced.
Can expect on average 3.25 − 3.0164 =
0.2336 fewer sets per match than if the players are
evenly matched.
Answer
0.2336 sets

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland

Worked solutions
Chapter 8 Binomial distributions
Exercise 8.2 Bernoulli trials and the binomial distribution
TF Technology free question

1 Determine the stated probability for the following binomial distributions. Give your answers correct to
4 decimal places.

(a) P ( X = 4 ) if X ~ B (12, 0.7 )

Worked solution
n
P ( X= x=
)   p x (1 − p )
n− x

 x
 12 
P ( X= 4=
)   ( 0.7 ) ( 0.3)
4 8

4
= 0.0078 ( 4 d.p.)
Answer
P ( X= 4=
) 0.0078

(b) P ( X = 6 ) if X ~ B ( 20, 0.45)

Worked solution
n
P ( X= x=
)   p x (1 − p )
n− x

 x
 20 
P ( X= 6=
)   ( 0.45) ( 0.55)
6 14

6
= 0.0746 ( 4 d.p.)

Answer
P ( X= 6=
) 0.0746

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(c) P ( X = 2 ) if X ~ B ( 8,0.3)

Worked solution
n
)   p x (1 − p )
P ( X= x=
n− x

 x
8
P ( X= 2=
)   ( 0.3) ( 0.7 )
2 6

2
= 0.2965 ( 4 d.p.)

Answer
P ( X= 2=
) 0.2965

(d) P ( X = 30 ) if X ~ B ( 50,0.6 )

Worked solution
n
P ( X= x=
)   p x (1 − p )
n− x

 x
 50 
P (= = )   ( 0.6) ( 0.4 )
30 20
X 30
 30 
= 0.1146 ( 4 d.p.)
Answer
P (= =
X 30 ) 0.1146

2 A spinner is divided into eight equal sections, of which three are shaded. Determine the probability,
correct to 4 decimal places, of the spinner landing on a shaded section exactly five times out of ten
spins.
Worked solution
n
P ( X= x=
)   p x (1 − p )
n− x

 x
3 5
n = 10 , x = 5 , p = , 1− p =
8 8
5 5
 10   3   5 
P ( X= 5=
)     
 5  8 8
= 0.1782 ( 4 d.p.)
The probability, correct to 4 decimal places, of the spinner landing on a shaded section exactly
five times out of ten spins is 0.1782 .

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
Answer
0.1782

3 A standard six-sided die is rolled 50 times. Determine the probability, correct to 5 decimal places, of
the following outcomes.

(a) Exactly 30 even numbers are rolled.

Worked solution
n
P ( X= x=
)   p x (1 − p ) , where n = 50 , x = 30 , p = 0.5 , 1 − p =
n− x
0.5
 x
 50 
P (= =)   ( 0.5) ( 0.5)
30 20
X 30
 30 
= 0.04186 ( 5 d.p.)
The probability that exactly 30 even numbers are rolled is 0.04186 .
Answer
0.04186

(b) At least one six is rolled.

Worked solution
1 5
n = 50 , p = , 1− p =
6 6
P ( X ≥ 1) =1 − P ( X =0 )
50
5
= 1−  
6
= 0.99989 ( 5 d.p.)
The probability that at least one six is rolled is 0.99989 .
Answer
0.99989

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
4 Peter, a keen gardener, knows from past experience that only 60% of his tulip bulbs will flower. He
plants 20 bulbs. Determine the probability of the following outcomes. Give your answers correct to
5 decimal places.

(a) Exactly 15 bulbs flower.

Worked solution
n
P ( X= x=
)   p x (1 − p ) , where n = 20 , x = 15 , p = 0.6 , 1 − p =
n− x
0.4
 x
 20 
P (= =)   ( 0.6) ( 0.4 )
15 5
X 15
 15 
= 0.074 65 ( 5 d.p.)

The probability that exactly 15 bulbs flower is 0.074 65 .

Answer
0.074 65

(b) More than 15 bulbs flower.

Worked solution
n = 20 , p = 0.6 , 1 − p =
0.4

P ( X > 15) =P ( X =16 ) + P ( X =17 ) +  + P ( X =20 )

 20   20 
=   ( 0.6 ) ( 0.4 ) +   ( 0.6 ) ( 0.4 )
16 4 17 3

 16   17 
 20 
+   ( 0.6 ) ( 0.4 ) + 20 ( 0.6 ) ( 0.4 ) + ( 0.6 )
18 2 19 1 20

 18 
= 0.05095 ( 5 d.p.)
Alternatively:
P ( X > 15) =
1 − P ( X ≤ 15)
= 1 − 0.94905
= 0.05095 ( 5 d.p.)
The probability that more than 15 bulbs flower is 0.050 95 .
Answer
0.05095

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
TF 5 Determine whether or not each of the following situations is suitable for binomial modelling. For
those that are not, explain why.

(a) You are playing a game where you are required to roll a six on the die before you can start. The
number of rolls required for the eight players is recorded.
Worked solution
In this probability distribution, the number of trials is not determined beforehand; the number of
trials (rolls of the dice) will change according to how long it takes you to roll a 6 .
This situation is not suitable for binomial modelling.
Answer
Not suitable, because the number of trials was not determined beforehand.

1
(b) A die is biased such that P ( 4 ) = . The die is rolled 40 times and the number of 4s is
3
recorded.
Worked solution
This situation is suitable for binomial modelling.
1
The probability of success is and the number of trials is 40 .
3
Answer
suitable

6 Use technology to determine the median of each of the following distributions.

(a) X ~ B ( 6,0.2 )

Worked solution
X ~ B ( 6,0.2 )

P ( X ≤ 0) =
0.26

P ( X ≤ 1) =
0.65
The cumulative probability distribution first exceeds 0.5 when x = 1 .
This can be checked by hand:
P ( X = 0 ) + P ( X = 1) = 0.86 + 6 × 0.2 × 0.85
= 0.262144 + 0.393216
= 0.65536
The median is 1 .

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
Answer
1

(b) X ~ B ( 9,0.15 )

Worked solution
X ~ B ( 9,0.15 )

P ( X ≤ 0) =
0.23

P ( X ≤ 1) =
0.59

The cumulative probability distribution first exceeds 0.5 when x = 1 .

The median is 1.
Answer
1

(c) X ~ B (12,0.4 )

Worked solution
X ~ B (12,0.4 )

P ( X ≤ 4) =
0.43

P ( X ≤ 5) =
0.66

The cumulative probability distribution first exceeds 0.5 when x = 5 .

The median is 5 .
Answer
5

(d) X ~ B (10,0.65)

Worked solution
X ~ B (10,0.65)

P ( X ≤ 6) =
0.48

P ( X ≤ 7) =
0.73

The cumulative probability distribution first exceeds 0.5 when x = 7 .

The median is 7 .
Answer
7

Copyright © Pearson Australia 2019 (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) ISBN 978 1 4886 2142 0 Page 6
 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(e) X ~ B (15,0.82 )

Worked solution
X ~ B (15,0.82 )

P ( X ≤ 11) =
0.27

P ( X ≤ 12 ) =
0.52
The cumulative probability distribution first exceeds 0.5 when x = 12 .
The median is 12 .
Answer
12

7 If 100 cards are drawn with replacement from a normal pack of cards, determine the probability of the
following events. Give your answers correct to 4 decimal places.

(a) Exactly 25 hearts are drawn.

Worked solution
n
)   p x (1 − p )
P ( X= x=
n− x

 x
n = 100 , x = 25 , p = 0.25 , 1 − p =
0.75

100 
P (= )   ( 0.25) ( 0.75)
25 75
=
X 25
 25 
= 0.0918 ( 4 d.p.)
The probability that exactly 25 hearts are drawn is 0.0918 .
Answer
0.0918

(b) Exactly 40 cards are clubs.

Worked solution
n
P ( X= x=
)   p x (1 − p ) , n = 100 , x = 40 , p = 0.25 , 1 − p =
n− x
0.75
 x
100 
P (= )   ( 0.25) ( 0.75)
40 60
=
X 40
 40 
= 0.0004 ( 4 d.p.)

Copyright © Pearson Australia 2019 (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) ISBN 978 1 4886 2142 0 Page 7
 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
The probability that exactly 40 cards are clubs is 0.0004 .
Answer
0.0004

(c) Exactly 55 red cards are drawn.

Worked solution
n
)   p x (1 − p ) , n = 100 , x = 55 , p = 0.5 , 1 − p =
P ( X= x=
n− x
0.5
 x
100 
P (= )   ( 0.5) ( 0.5)
55 45
=
X 55
 55 
= 0.0485 ( 4 d.p.)
The probability that exactly 55 red cards are drawn is 0.0485 .
Answer
0.0485

(d) Exactly 60 cards are black.

Worked solution
n
)   p x (1 − p ) , n = 100 , x = 60 , p = 0.5 , 1 − p =
P ( X= x=
n− x
0.5
 x
100 
P (= )   ( 0.5) ( 0.5)
60 40
=
X 60
 60 
= 0.0108 ( 4 d.p.)
The probability that exactly 60 cards are black is 0.0108 .
Answer
0.0108

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
TF 8 The probability that Robin, an archer of some skill, will make a bull’s-eye with any particular arrow is
4
. He shoots a flight of ten arrows.
5

(a) Which of the following expressions represents the probability that he misses the bull’s-eye with
exactly two of his arrows?

 10   4   1   10   4   1 
2 8 8 2

A  2  5   5 B  8  5   5
         

8 4   1  8 4   1 
2 8 8 2

C 2 5   5  D 2 5   5 
         
Worked solution
Let hitting the bull’s-eye be considered a success.
4 1
n = 10 , p = , 1− p =
5 5
10  4
8 2

)      
1
P ( X= 8=
 8  5   5 
The correct option is B.
Answer
B

(b) Explain the common error made by a student who chose the first incorrect option.
Worked solution
 10  4
2 8

The first incorrect option is A:       .

1
 2  5   5
 10   10 
There is nothing incorrect with   rather than   , as the number of combinations is the
2 8
same, and the formula could use either form depending on the definition of success.
The student has mixed up the number of successes with the number of failures.
The power for the number of misses must match the probability for the number of misses.
Answer
The student has mixed up the number of successes with the number of failures when matching
the powers to the probabilities.

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
9 In a northern Queensland community, 62% of all births are girls. Calculate the probability, correct to
4 decimal places, that of eight births exactly half are girls.
Worked solution
n
)   p x (1 − p )
P ( X= x=
n− x

 x
n = 8 , x = 4 , p = 0.62 , 1 − p =
0.38

8
P ( X= 4=
)   ( 0.62 ) ( 0.38)
4 4

 4
= 0.2157 ( 4 d.p.)
The probability that of eight births exactly half are girls is 0.2157 .
Answer
0.2157

10 In the town of Sinistraville, 35% of the population is left-handed. Determine the probability, correct
to 4 decimal places, that exactly 35 people out of a random sample of 100 will be left-handed.
Worked solution
n
)   p x (1 − p )
P ( X= x=
n− x

 x
n = 100 , x = 35 , p = 0.35 , 1 − p =
0.65

100 
P (= )   ( 0.35) ( 0.65)
35 65
=
X 35
 35 
= 0.0834 ( 4 d.p.)
The probability that exactly 35 people out of a random sample of 100 will be left-handed is
0.0834 .
Answer
0.0834

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
11 A coin is biased in such a way that P ( Heads )= 3 × P ( Tails ) . Determine the probability, correct to
3 decimal places, that exactly 6 tosses out of 10 land heads up.
Worked solution
n
)   p x (1 − p )
P ( X= x=
n− x

 x
Let P ( Tails ) = k and P ( Heads ) = 3k .

k + 3k = 1
4k = 1
1
k=
4
3
So 3k =
4
Let X be the number of heads.
3 1
n = 10 , x = 6 , p = , 1− p =
4 4
 10  3
6 4

)      
1
P ( X= 6=
 6  4   4 
= 0.146 ( 3 d.p.)
The probability that exactly 6 tosses out of 10 land on heads is 0.146 .
Answer
0.146

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
TF 12 For the graph shown, choose the best representation for its binomial distribution.

A X ~ B (12,0.5) B X ~ B ( 20,0.3)

C X ~ B (12,0.3) D X ~ B ( 20,0.7 )

Worked solution
n = 20 because there are 20 possible outcomes along the horizontal axis.
The graph is skewed to the right, or positively skewed, therefore p < 0.5 .
Looking at the options available, p = 0.3 .
The correct option is B.
Answer
B

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
TF 13 Cardsare dealt from a normal pack of cards without replacement. Let X be the number of hearts in
your hand and assume five cards are dealt. Explain why this experiment could not be described as
 1
X ~ B  5,  .
 4
Worked solution
This probability distribution is selecting cards without replacement, so the probability of success
and failure would change as each card is dealt.
Answer
The probability of success is not constant.

14 Boxes of matches are supposed to contain 47 matches. Production records indicate that 80% of boxes
contain 47 matches. A batch of 20 boxes is sampled. If more than four boxes do not contain exactly
47 matches, production is stopped.

(a) Determine the probability, correct to 4 decimal places, that of the 20 boxes selected, the number
of boxes that do not contain 47 matches is:
(i) 0

Worked solution
Let X be the number of boxes that do not contain 47 matches.
n = 20 , x = 0 , p = 0.2 , 1 − p =
0.8

n
P ( X= x=
)   p x (1 − p )
n− x

 x
 20 
P ( X= 0=
)   ( 0.2 ) ( 0.8)
0 20

0
= 0.0115 ( 4 d.p.)

The probability that of the 20 boxes selected, the number of boxes that do not contain
47 matches is 0 boxes is 0.0115 .
Answer
0.0115

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(ii) 1

Worked solution
 20 
P ( X= 1=
)   ( 0.2 ) ( 0.8)
1 19

1
= 0.0576 ( 4 d.p.)

The probability that of the 20 boxes selected, the number of boxes that do not contain
47 matches is 1 box is 0.0576 .
Answer
0.0576
(iii) 2

Worked solution
 20 
P ( X= 2=
)   ( 0.2 ) ( 0.8)
2 18

2
= 0.1369 ( 4 d.p.)

The probability that of the 20 boxes selected, the number of boxes that do not contain
47 matches is 2 boxes is 0.1369 .
Answer
0.1369
(iv) 3

Worked solution
 20 
P ( X= 3=
)   ( 0.2 ) ( 0.8)
3 17

3
= 0.2054 ( 4 d.p.)

The probability that of the 20 boxes selected, the number of boxes that do not contain
47 matches is 3 boxes is 0.2054 .
Answer
0.2054

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(v) 4

Worked solution
 20 
P ( X= 4=
)   ( 0.2 ) ( 0.8)
4 16

4
= 0.2182 ( 4 d.p.)

The probability that of the 20 boxes selected, the number of boxes that do not contain
47 matches is 4 boxes is 0.2182 .
Answer
0.2182

(b) Use your answers from part (a) to determine the probability that the number of boxes that do not
have 47 is no more than 4 .
Worked solution
P ( X ≤ 4) =
P ( X =+
0) P ( X = 2 ) P ( X =+
1) + P ( X =+ 3) P ( X =
4)
= 0.0115 + 0.0576 + 0.1369 + 0.2054 + 0.2182
= 0.6296 ( 4 d.p.)

The probability that the number of boxes that do not have 47 is no more than 4 boxes is
0.6296 .
Answer
0.6296

(c) Use a technology-based cumulative probability distribution function to verify the answer from
part (b).
Worked solution
n = 20 , p = 0.2
P ( X ≤ 4) =
0.6296

Answer
P ( X ≤ 4) =
0.6296

(d) Determine the probability that production is stopped.

Worked solution
P ( X > 4 ) =−
1 P ( X ≤ 4)
= 1 − 0.6296
= 0.3704
The probability that production is stopped is 0.3704 .

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
Answer
0.3704

15 A coin is tossed 20 times. Determine the probability of each of the following outcomes, correct to
3 decimal places.

(a) between 8 and 12 heads, inclusive

Worked solution
n = 20 , P ( H =
) p= 0.5
P ( 8 ≤ X ≤ 12 ) =
P ( X =+
8 ) P ( X =+
9)  + P ( X =
12 )
 20   20   20 
=   0.580.512 +   0.59 0.511 +   0.510 0.510 +
8 9  10 
 20  11 9  20  12 8
  0.5 0.5 +   0.5 0.5
 11   12 
= 0.737 ( 3 d.p.)
Alternatively, using technology:
P ( 8 ≤ X ≤ 12=
) P ( X ≤ 12 ) − P ( X ≤ 7 )
= 0.8684 − 0.1316
= 0.737 ( 3 d.p.)

The probability of between 8 and 12 heads, inclusive, is 0.737 .

Answer
0.737

(b) between 10 and 15 heads, inclusive

Worked solution
n = 20 , P ( H =
) p= 0.5
Using technology:
P (10 ≤ X ≤ 15=
) P ( X ≤ 15) − P ( X ≤ 9 )
= 0.9941 − 0.4119
= 0.582 ( 3 d.p.)

The probability of between 10 and 15 heads, inclusive, is 0.582 .

Answer
0.582

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(c) between 12 and 19 heads, inclusive
Worked solution
n = 20 , P ( H =
) p= 0.5
Using technology:
P (12 ≤ X ≤ 19=
) P ( X ≤ 19 ) − P ( X ≤ 11)
= 0.999999 − 0.748278
= 0.252 ( 3 d.p.)

The probability of between 12 and 19 heads, inclusive, is 0.252 .

Answer
0.252

16 On the way to work, Philomena must pass through six sets of traffic lights. The lights are independent
of each other and the probability that Philomena must stop at any particular set is 0.7. Determine the
probabilities that Philomena has to stop as described below. Give your answers correct to 4 decimal
places.

(a) at exactly five sets of lights

Worked solution
n = 6 , x = 5 , p = 0.7 , 1 − p =
0.3

6
P ( X= 5=
)   ( 0.7 ) ( 0.3)
5 1

5
= 0.3025 ( 4 d.p.)
The probability that Philomena stops at exactly five sets of lights is 0.3025 .
Answer
0.3025

(b) at fewer than two sets of lights

Worked solution
n = 6 , x = 0 or 1 , p = 0.7 , 1 − p =
0.3

P ( X < 2 ) = P ( X = 0 ) + P ( X = 1)
6 6
=   ( 0.7 ) ( 0.3) +   ( 0.7 ) ( 0.3)
0 6 1 5

0 1
= 0.0109 ( 4 d.p.)

The probability that Philomena stops at fewer than two sets of lights is 0.0109 .

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
Answer
0.0109

(c) at more than five sets of lights

Worked solution
n = 6 , x = 6 , p = 0.7 , 1 − p =
0.3

P ( X > 5=
) P ( X= 6 )
6
=   ( 0.7 ) ( 0.3)
6 0

6
= 0.1176 ( 4 d.p.)

The probability that Philomena stops at more than five sets of lights is 0.1176 .
Answer
0.1176

(d) at the first three sets of lights

Worked solution
Let S be the probability of Philomena stopping at the lights.
You are only interested in the first 3 sets of lights, so simply calculate:
P ( first 3 stops ) = P ( SSS)
= ( 0.7 )
3

= 0.343
The probability that Philomena stops at the first three sets of lights is 0.343 .
Answer
0.343

(e) at the second and sixth sets of lights only

Worked solution
Let S be the probability of Philomena stopping at the lights.
P ( S) = 0.7 , P ( G ) = 0.3

P ( stop at second and sixth only ) = P ( GSGGGS)

= P ( SSGGGG )
( 0.7 ) × ( 0.3)
2 4
=
= 0.0040 ( 4 d.p.)

The probability that Philomena stops at the second and sixth sets of lights only is 0.0040 .

Copyright © Pearson Australia 2019 (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) ISBN 978 1 4886 2142 0 Page 18
 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
Answer
0.0040

(f) at four sets of lights, including the first two

Worked solution
Let S be the probability of Philomena stopping at the lights.
P ( S) = 0.7
P ( G ) = 0.3

The first two are given: SS

The sample space for the last four sets of lights where two are S and two are G, is:
SSGG , SGSG , SGGS , GSSG , GSGS , GGSS
Hence, there are six arrangements that involve four stops.
P ( 4 sets including first 2 ) = P ( SSSSGG ) + P ( SSGGSS ) + P ( SSGSGS)
+ P ( SSSGSG ) + P ( SSSGGS ) + P ( SSGSSG )
= 6 ( 0.7 ) ( 0.3)
4 2

= 0.1297 ( 4 d.p.)
The probability that Philomena stops at exactly four sets of lights including the first two is
0.1297 .
Answer
0.1297

17 The local baker knows that, on average, 8% of the loaves of bread baked each day become slightly
burnt and she cannot sell them at the full price. Assume the likelihood of a particular loaf being
slightly burnt is independent of any other loaf being slightly burnt. To break even, the baker has to sell
at least 40% of the loaves at full price. Calculate the probability, correct to 4 decimal places, that she
would make a profit when 12 loaves are baked.
Worked solution
The break-even point occurs when 40% of the 12 loaves are not burnt.
40
40% × 12 = × 12 = 4.8
100
To make a profit, the baker cannot burn more than 4.8 of the loaves, i.e. 5 or more.
X ~ B (12,0.08)

P ( X ≤ 4) =
0.9984 ( 4 d.p.)
The probability that the baker would make a profit is 0.9984 .

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
Answer
0.9984

18 A recording company receives a large number of new songs from various artists. On average, only 4%
of the new songs become popular hits. One of the producers decides to select a random sample of
35 new songs.

(a) Determine the most likely number of songs from this sample that could become popular hits.
Explain your answer using appropriate calculations.
Worked solution
Let X represent the number of new songs that become hits, where X ~ B ( 35,0.04 ) .

Calculate P ( X = 0 ) , P ( X = 1) , … and select the highest probability.

P ( X= 0=
) 0.239
P ( X= 1=
) 0.349
P ( X= 2=
) 0.248
The shape of the graph of any binomial probability distribution means that the highest
probability is when x = 1 .
The greatest probability is that only one of the 35 songs in the sample will become a popular hit.
Answer
1

(b) The producer decides to select 70 songs at random from the new songs received. If the
probability of a new song becoming a popular hit has not changed, what would be the most
likely number of popular hits from this sample?
Worked solution
Let X be the number of popular hits where X ~ B ( 70,0.04 ) .

Calculate P ( X = 0 ) , P ( X = 1) , … and select the highest probability.

P ( X= 1=
) 0.167
) 0.241
P ( X= 2=

P ( X= 3=
) 0.227
The shape of the graph of any binomial probability distribution means that the highest
probability is when x = 2 .
The greatest probability is that two of the 70 songs in the sample will become popular hits.

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
Answer
2

19 DVDs from a second-hand store have a 0.15 chance of being faulty. A boxed set of five DVDs is
purchased. Assume independence exists between the DVDs. Determine the probability, correct to
3 decimal places, that the boxed set contains fewer than four faulty DVDs if you know it contains at
least one faulty DVD.
Worked solution
n = 5 , p = 0.15 , 1 − p =
0.85
n
)   p x (1 − p )
P ( X= x=
n− x

 x
5
)   ( 0.15) ( 0.85)
P ( X= 0=
0 5

0
= 0.4437 ( 4 d.p.)

5
P ( X= 1=
)   ( 0.15) ( 0.85)
1 4

1
= 0.3915 ( 4 d.p.)

5
P ( X= 2=
)   ( 0.15) ( 0.85)
2 3

 2
= 0.1382 ( 4 d.p.)

5
P ( X= 3=
)   ( 0.15) ( 0.85)
3 2

 3
= 0.0244 ( 4 d.p.)

5
)   ( 0.15) ( 0.85)
P ( X= 4=
4 1

 4
= 0.0022 ( 4 d.p.)

5
P ( X= 5=
)   ( 0.15) ( 0.85)
5 0

5
= 0.0001 ( 4 d.p.)

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland

x 0 1 2 3 4 5

P ( X = x) 0.4437 0.3915 0.1382 0.0244 0.0022 0.0001

P ( A ∩ B)
P ( A | B) =
P ( B)

P ( X < 4 ) ∩ P ( X ≥ 1)
P ( X < 4 | X ≥ 1) =
P ( X ≥ 1)
P( X =
1) + P ( X =+
2) P ( X =
3)
=
1− P ( X =
0)
0.3915 + 0.1382 + 0.0244
=
1 − 0.4437
= 0.996 ( 3 d.p.)
The probability that the boxed set will contain fewer than four faulty DVDs, if you know it
contains at least one faulty DVD, is 0.996 .
Answer
0.996

20 An archer hits a target with 75% of his attempts.

(a) How many attempts must be made for the probability of missing the target every time to drop
below 5%?
Worked solution
Let X be the distribution of the number of hits.
p = 0.75 , q = 0.25

The probability of missing the target every time is q n .

For n = 1= =
, q n 0.251
0.25
For n = 2= =
, q n 0.25 2
0.0625
For n = 3= =
, q n 0.253
0.015625
In three attempts the probability of missing the target every time is less than 5% .
Answer
3

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(b) Determine the number of attempts to be made if the probability of missing at most one target is
less than 10% .
Worked solution
Let X be the distribution of the number of hits.
p = 0.75 , q = 0.25
The probability of missing the target at most once is the same as the probability of hitting every
time or missing once: p n + np n −1q .

For n = 1 , p n + np n −1q = 0.75 + 0.25 = 1

For n = 2 , p n + np n −1q =0.752 + 2 ( 0.75 ) 0.25 =0.9375

( )
For n = 10 , p n + np n −1q = 0.7510 + 10 0.759 0.25 = 0.244

For n = 12 , p n + np n −1q = 0.7512 + 12 ( 0.75 ) 0.25 = 0.158

11

For n = 14 , p n + np n −1q = 0.7514 + 14 ( 0.75 ) 0.25 = 0.1009

13

For n = 15 , p n + np n −1q = 0.7515 + 15 ( 0.75 ) 0.25 = 0.08

14

In 15 attempts the probability of hitting 14 or more targets is less than 10% .

Answer
15

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland

Worked solutions
Chapter 8 Binomial distributions
Exercise 8.3 Statistics of binomial probability distributions
TF Technology free question

1 Determine the exact values of the mean and the variance for each of the following Bernoulli
distributions.

(a) A fair die is rolled and you record whether the outcome is a 1 or not.
Worked solution
Let p = P (1) .

1
p=
6
1
The mean is .
6
= p (1 − p )
Variance
1  1
= × 1 − 
6  6
1 5
= ×
6 6
5
=
36
5
The variance is .
36
Answer
1 5
mean: ; variance:
6 36

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(b) Two coins are tossed and you record whether the outcome is two heads or not.
Worked solution
Let p = P ( two heads ) .

1
p=
4
1
The mean is .
4
= p (1 − p )
Variance
1  1
= × 1 − 
4  4
1 3
= ×
4 4
3
=
16
3
The variance is .
16
Answer
1 3
mean: ; variance:
4 16

(c) A goal shooter is successful 86% of the time.

Worked solution
Let p = P ( success ) .

p = 0.86
The mean is 0.86 .
= p (1 − p )
Variance
= 0.86 × (1 − 0.86 )
= 0.86 × 0.14
= 0.12 ( 2 d.p.)
The variance is 0.12 .
Answer
mean: 0.86 ; variance: 0.12

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(d) Two dice are rolled and you record whether or not the sum of the dice is at least 11 .
Worked solution
Let =
p ( P ≥ 11) .
The successful pairs are ( 5, 6 ) , ( 6,5 ) , ( 6, 6 ) .

3
p=
36
1
=
12
= 0.08 ( 2 d.p.)
The mean is 0.08 .
= p (1 − p )
Variance
1  1
= × 1 − 
12  12 
1 11
= ×
12 12
11
=
144
= 0.08 ( 2 d.p.)
The variance is 0.08 .
Answer
mean: 0.08 ; variance: 0.08

2 Determine the values of E (X), Var (X) and σ (X) for each of the following binomial distributions.
Give your answers correct to 2 decimal places where necessary.

(a) X ~ B ( 20,0.7 )

Worked solution
E ( X ) = np
= 20 × 0.7
= 14
Var (=
X ) np (1 − p )
= 14 × (1 − 0.7 )
= 4.2

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland

σ ( X ) = Var ( X )
= 4.2
= 2.05 ( 2 d.p.)
Answer
E ( X ) = 14 , Var (X) = 4.2, σ ( X ) = 2.05

(b) X ~ B (100,0.55)

Worked solution
E ( X ) = np
= 100 × 0.55
= 55
X ) np (1 − p )
Var (=
= 55 × (1 − 0.55)
= 24.75
σ ( X ) = Var ( X )
= 24.75
= 4.97 ( 2 d.p.)
Answer
E ( X ) = 55 , Var (X) = 24.75, σ ( X ) = 4.97

 2
(c) X ~ B  50, 
 3

Worked solution
E ( X ) = np
2
= 50 ×
3
1
= 33
3
= 33.33 ( 2 d.p.)

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
Var (=
X ) np (1 − p )
1  2
= 33 × 1 − 
3  3
1
= 11
9
= 11.11 ( 2 d.p.)

σ ( X ) = Var ( X )
1
= 11
9
1
=3
3
= 3.33 ( 2 d.p.)
Answer
E ( X ) = 33.33 , Var (X) = 11.11, σ ( X ) = 3.33

(d) X ~ B (10,0.5)

Worked solution
E ( X ) = np
= 10 × 0.5
=5
Var (=
X ) np (1 − p )
= 5 × 0.5
= 2.5
σ ( X ) = Var ( X )
= 2.5
= 1.58 ( 2 d.p.)
Answer
E ( X ) = 5 , Var (X) = 2.5, σ ( X ) = 1.58

(e) X ~ B ( 25,0.8)

Worked solution
E ( X ) = np
= 25 × 0.8
= 20

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
Var (=
X ) np (1 − p )
= 20 × (1 − 0.8 )
=4
σ ( X ) = Var ( X )
= 4
=2
Answer
E ( X ) = 20 , Var (X) = 4, σ ( X ) = 2

 2
(f) X ~ B  40, 
 5

Worked solution
E ( X ) = np
2
= 40 ×
5
= 16
Var (=
X ) np (1 − p )
 2
= 16 × 1 − 
 5
= 9.6
σ ( X ) = Var ( X )
= 9.6
= 3.10 ( 2 d.p.)
Answer
E ( X ) = 16 , Var (X) = 9.6, σ ( X ) = 3.10

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
TF 3 For each of the following, calculate the exact value of the unknown parameter, n or p .

(a) X ~ B (15, p ) , E ( X ) = 5

Worked solution
E ( X ) = np
5 = 15 p
1
p=
3
Answer
1
p=
3

(b) X ~ B ( 30, p ) , E ( X ) = 3

Worked solution
E ( X ) = np
3 = 30 p
p = 0.1
Answer
p = 0.1

(c) X ~ B ( n,0.2 ) , E ( X ) = 7

Worked solution
E ( X ) = np
7= n × 0.2
n = 35
Answer
n = 35

 2
(d) X ~ B  n,  , E ( X ) = 10
 5
Worked solution
E ( X ) = np
2
10= n ×
5
n = 25

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
Answer
n = 25

TF 4 For each of the following, calculate the values of n and p .

(a) X ~ B ( n, p ) , µ = 4.8 and σ 2 = 2.88

Worked solution
µ = np
4.8 = np

σ 2 np (1 − p )
=
= 4.8 (1 − p )
2.88
0.6 = 1 − p
p = 0.4
4.8 = np
4.8= n × 0.4
n = 12
n = 12 and p = 0.4 , so X ~ B (12, 0.4 ) .
Answer
n = 12 , p = 0.4

(b) X ~ B ( n, p ) , µ = 2 and σ 2 = 1.8

Worked solution
µ = np
2 = np
σ 2 np (1 − p )
=
= 2 (1 − p )
1.8
0.9= 1 − p
p = 0.1
2 = np
2= n × 0.1
n = 20
n = 20 and p = 0.1 , so X ~ B ( 20,0.1)

Answer
n = 20 , p = 0.1

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(c) X ~ B ( n, p ) , µ = 4.5 and σ 2 = 3.825

Worked solution
µ = np
4.5 = np
σ 2 np (1 − p )
=
= 4.5 (1 − p )
3.825
0.85= 1 − p
p = 0.15
4.5 = np
4.5= n × 0.15
n = 30
n = 30 and p = 0.15 , so X ~ B ( 30,0.15)

Answer
n = 30 , p = 0.15

(d) X ~ B ( n, p ) , µ = 11 and σ 2 = 8.58

Worked solution
µ = np
11 = np
σ 2 np (1 − p )
=
= 11 (1 − p )
8.58
0.78= 1 − p
p = 0.22
11 = np
11= n × 0.22
n = 50
n = 50 and p = 0.22 , so X ~ B ( 50,0.22 )

Answer
n = 50 , p = 0.22

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(e) X ~ B ( n, p ) , µ = 65 and σ 2 = 22.75

Worked solution
µ = np
65 = np
σ 2 np (1 − p )
=
= 65 (1 − p )
22.75
0.35= 1 − p
p = 0.65
65 = np
65= n × 0.65
n = 100
n = 100 and p = 0.65 , so X ~ B (100,0.65)

Answer
n = 100 , p = 0.65

(f) X ~ B ( n, p ) , µ = 41.25 and σ 2 = 29.906 25

Worked solution
µ = np
41.25 = np

σ 2 np (1 − p )
=
=
29.906 25 41.25 (1 − p )
0.725 = 1 − p
p = 0.275
41.25 = np
41.25= n × 0.275
n = 150
n = 150 and p = 0.275 , so X ~ B (150, 0.275 )
Answer
n = 150 , p = 0.275

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
TF 5 Consider the binomial distribution X ~ B ( 30, 0.4 ) .

(a) Which of the following pairs of values is correct?

A E ( X ) = 12 , Var ( X ) = 7.2 B E ( X ) = 12 , σ 2 = 7.2

C E ( X ) = 18 , σ 2 = 7.2 D E ( X ) = 18 , σ = 7.2

Worked solution
E ( X ) = np
= 30 × 0.4
= 12
Var (=
X ) np (1 − p )
= 12 × 0.6
= 7.2
So σ 2 = 7.2 and σ = 7.2
The correct option is B.
Answer
B

(b) Explain the common error made by a student who chose the first incorrect option.
Worked solution
The first incorrect option is A: E ( X ) = 12 , Var ( X ) = 7.2 .
The student has mixed up standard deviation and variance.
Answer
The student has mixed up standard deviation and variance. σ 2 = 7.2 and σ = 7.2

TF 6 Given X ~ B ( n, p ) , µ = 10 and σ 2 = 8 , which of the following pairs of values is correct?

A n = 80 , p = 0.8 B n = 50 , p = 0.8

C n = 80 , p = 0.2 D n = 50 , p = 0.2

Worked solution
µ = np
10 = np

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
σ 2 np (1 − p )
=
=8 10 (1 − p )
0.8= 1 − p
p = 0.2
10 = np
10= n × 0.2
n = 50
The correct option is D.
Answer
D

7 A spinner is divided into four equal sections, one of which is coloured blue. If the spinner is spun eight
times, determine the probability, correct to 3 decimal places, of obtaining less than the expected
number of blue outcomes.
Worked solution
X ~ B ( 8,0.25)

E ( X ) = np
= 8 × 0.25
=2
n
)   p x (1 − p )
P ( X= x=
n− x

 x
P ( X < 2 ) = P ( X = 0 ) + P ( X = 1)
= ( 0.75) + 8 × 0.25 × ( 0.75)
8 7

= 0.1001 + 0.26697
= 0.367 ( 3 d.p.)
If the spinner is spun eight times, the probability of obtaining less than the expected number of
blue outcomes ( 2 ) is 0.367 .
Answer
0.367

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
TF 8 You are told that for the variable X ~ B ( 40, p ) , σ 2 = 9.6 . Determine all possible values of p and
evaluate the reasonableness of your solution.
Worked solution
µ = np
= 40 p

σ 2 np (1 − p )
=
9.6 40 p (1 − p )
=
= p (1 − p )
0.24
0.24= p − p 2
p 2 − p + 0.24 =
0
( p − 0.4 )( p − 0.6 ) =
0
p = 0.4 or p = 0.6
Answer
p = 0.4 or 0.6 The solution is reasonable because the possible values for p are symmetrical
about p = 0.5 .

9 The birthing unit staff at the local hospital know from past records that 53% of all births are female.

(a) Determine the likely number of females in the next 60 births, rounded to the nearest whole
number.
Worked solution
n = 60 , p = 0.53

E ( X ) = np
= 60 × 0.53
= 31.8
The likely number of females in the next 60 births is 32 .
Answer
32

(b) Estimate the whole number range within which the number of females would be found 95% of
the time.
Worked solution
Given that p ≈ 0.5 , then approximately 95% of the data lies within two standard deviations of
the mean.

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
Var (=
X ) np (1 − p )
= 31.8 × 0.47
= 14.946

σ ( X ) = Var ( X )
= 14.946
= 3.866
µ + 2σ= 31.8 + 2 × 3.866
= 39.53
µ − 2σ= 31.8 − 2 × 3.866
= 24.07
95% of every sample of 60 births will contain between 25 and 39 females.
Answer
25 to 39

10 A normal die is rolled 100 times. Estimate the range within which you would expect the number of 3s
obtained to lie, in 95% of cases.
Worked solution
 1
X ~ B 100, 
 6
µ = np
1
= 100 ×
6
50
=
3
σ 2 np (1 − p )
=
50 5
= ×
3 6
125
=
9
5 5
σ=
3
50 5 5
µ + 2σ = + 2×
3 3
= 24.12

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland

50 5 5
µ − 2σ = − 2×
3 3
= 9.21
In 100 rolls, you would expect from 10 to 24 threes in approximately 95% of cases. However,
given that p is not approximately 0.5 , the data does not closely follow a normal distribution.
Answer
10 to 24

11 Astrid is planning a visit to her grandmother’s house. She calculates that she must pass through 10 sets
of traffic lights. Assuming that all the sets of lights are independent and that Astrid’s chance of being
3
stopped at any particular set of lights is , estimate the range for the number of times within which
5
Astrid would expect to be stopped 95% of the time.
Worked solution
 3
X ~ B 10, 
 5
µ = np
3
= 10 ×
5
=6
σ 2 np (1 − p )
=
2
= 6×
5
12
=
5
12
σ=
5
12
µ + 2σ = 6 + 2 ×
5
= 9.098
12
µ − 2σ = 6 − 2 ×
5
= 2.902
Astrid would expect to be stopped from 3 to 9 times in 95% of journeys.
Answer
3 to 9

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland

TF 12 Given X ~ B ( n, p ) , E ( X ) = 48 and σ = 2 3 , determine the exact values of n , p , µ − 2σ and

µ + 2σ .
Worked solution
µ = np
48 = np

( )
2
σ2 = 2 3
= 4×3
= 12
σ 2 np (1 − p )
=
12 48 (1 − p )
=
0.25 = 1 − p
p = 0.75
48 = np
48= n × 0.75
n = 64
Therefore X ~ B ( 64,0.75)

µ = 48
σ =2 3
µ − 2σ = 48 − 2 × 2 3
= 48 − 4 3
µ + 2σ = 48 + 2 × 2 3
= 48 + 4 3
Answer
n = 64 , p = 0.75 , µ − 2σ =48 − 4 3 and µ + 2σ =48 + 4 3

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
13 Calculate P ( X = 3) , correct to 2 decimal places, given that E ( X ) = 3 and Var (X) = 0.75.

Worked solution
µ = np
3 = np

σ 2 np (1 − p )
=
= 3 (1 − p )
0.75
0.25 = 1 − p
p = 0.75
3 = np
3= n × 0.75
n=4
X ~ B ( 4,0.75)

n
)   p x (1 − p )
P ( X= x=
n− x

 x
 4
P ( X= 3=
)   ( 0.75) ( 0.25)
3 1

 3
= 0.42 ( 2 d.p.)
Answer
) 0.42
P ( X= 3=

14 (a) Consider X ~ B (8, 0.25).

(i) Construct a table showing the probability distribution. Where necessary, give the
probabilities to 4 decimal places.

Worked solution
X ~ B ( 8, 0.25 )

P ( X= 0=
) 0.1001
P ( X= 1=
) 0.2670
P ( X= 2=
) 0.3115
P ( X= 3=
) 0.2076
P ( X= 4=
) 0.0865

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
P ( X= 5=
) 0.0231
P ( X= 6=
) 0.0038
P ( X= 7=
) 0.0004
P ( X= 8=
) 0.0001
Answer
x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

P ( X = x) 0.1001 0.2670 0.3115 0.2076 0.0865 0.0231 0.0038 0.0004 0.0001

(ii) Use the rule µ = np to calculate E (X).

Worked solution
µ = np
= 8 × 0.25
=2
Answer
E(X ) = 2

(iii) Use the rule σ = (Var ( X ) ) to calculate σ (X), correct to 2 decimal places.

Worked solution
µ=2
σ 2 np (1 − p )
=
= 2 × 0.75
= 1.5
σ = 1.5
= 1.22 ( 2 d.p.)
Answer
σ ( X ) = 1.22
(iv) Use your answers from parts (ii) and (iii) to estimate the range within which 95% of
outcomes will lie.

Worked solution
X ~ B ( 8, 0.25 )

µ=2
σ = 1.22

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
µ + 2σ = 2 + 2 ×1.22
= 4.44
µ − 2σ = 2 − 2 ×1.22
= −0.44
95% of outcomes will lie from 0 to 4 .
Answer
0 to 4
(v) According to the values recorded in the probability distribution table, what is the actual
percentage of values that fall within the 95% interval from part (iv)?

Worked solution
x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

P ( X = x) 0.1001 0.2670 0.3115 0.2076 0.0865 0.0231 0.0038 0.0004 0.0001

The first five values of X fit within the confidence interval.

Adding the associated probabilities, you get:
0.1001 + 0.2670 + 0.3115 + 0.2076 + 0.0865 =
0.9727
The probability of falling within this 95% interval is 97.27% .
Answer
97.27%

(b) Now consider Y ~ B (8, 0.5).

(i) Estimate a similar 95% interval.

Worked solution
Y ~ B ( 8,0.5)
µ = np
= 8 × 0.5
=4
σ 2 np (1 − p )
=
= 4 × 0.5
=2
σ= 2
= 1.4142
µ + 2σ = 4 + 2 × 1.4142
= 6.83

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
µ − 2σ = 4 − 2 × 1.4142
= 1.17
95% of outcomes will be from 2 to 6 .
Answer
2 to 6
(ii) Construct a probability distribution table.

Worked solution
Y ~ B ( 8,0.5)

P (Y= 0=
) 0.0039
P (Y= 1=
) 0.0313
P (Y= 2=
) 0.1094
) 0.2188
P (Y= 3=

) 0.2734
P (Y= 4=

P (Y= 5=
) 0.2188
) 0.1094
P (Y= 6=

P (Y= 7=
) 0.0313
P (Y= 8=
) 0.0039
Answer
y 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

P (Y = y ) 0.0039 0.0313 0.1094 0.2188 0.2734 0.2188 0.1094 0.0313 0.0039

(iii) According to the values recorded in the probability distribution table, what is the actual
percentage of values that fall within the 95% interval from part (i)?

Worked solution
y 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

P (Y = y ) 0.0039 0.0313 0.1094 0.2188 0.2734 0.2188 0.1094 0.0313 0.0039

There are five values of Y that fit within the confidence interval.
Adding the associated probabilities, you get:

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
P ( 2 ≤ Y ≤ 6 ) = 0.1094 + 0.2188 + 0.2734 + 0.2188 + 0.1094
= 0.9298
The probability of falling within this 95% interval is 92.98% .
Answer
92.98%

(c) Now consider Z ~ B (8, 0.65).

(i) Estimate a similar 95% interval.

Worked solution
Z ~ B ( 8, 0.65 )
µ = np
= 8 × 0.65
= 5.2
σ 2 np (1 − p )
=
= 5.2 × 0.35
= 1.82
σ = 1.82
= 1.3491
µ + 2σ = 5.2 + 2 ×1.3491
= 7.90
µ − 2σ = 5.2 − 2 ×1.3491
= 2.50
95% of outcomes will be from 3 to 7 .
Answer
3 to 7
(ii) Construct a probability distribution table.

Worked solution
Z ~ B ( 8,0.65)

P ( Z= 0=
) 0.0002
P ( Z= 1=
) 0.0033
P ( Z= 2=
) 0.0217
P ( Z= 3=
) 0.0808

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
P ( Z= 4=
) 0.1875
P ( Z= 5=
) 0.2786
P ( Z= 6=
) 0.2587
P ( Z= 7=
) 0.1373
P ( Z= 8=
) 0.0319
Answer
z 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

P (Z = z) 0.0002 0.0033 0.0217 0.0808 0.1875 0.2786 0.2587 0.1373 0.0319

(iii) According to the values recorded in the probability distribution table, what is the actual
percentage of values that fall within the 95% interval from part (i)?

Worked solution
z 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

P(Z = z) 0.0002 0.0033 0.0217 0.0808 0.1875 0.2786 0.2587 0.1373

There are five values of Z that fit within the confidence interval.
Adding the associated probabilities, you get:
P ( 3 ≤ Z ≤=
7 ) 0.0808 + 0.1875 + 0.2786 + 0.2587 + 0.1373
= 0.9429
The probability of falling within this 95% interval is 94.29% .
Answer
94.29%

(d) Comment on the strengths and weaknesses of the model used to estimate the 95% interval.
Answer
All three distributions were close to having 95% of their values within two standard deviations
of the mean. As the number of values increased, you would expect to see results closer to the
prediction. The boundary adjustments necessary due to the variable being discrete contributed to
some of the discrepancy in the probability values. Otherwise, you would expect the distribution
where p = 0.5 to have given a closer estimate than the other two.

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
TF 15 Determine the maximum standard deviation for a Bernoulli distribution. Support your explanation
with a graph.
Worked solution
For any Bernoulli trial, the expected value is p and the variance is p (1 − p ) , so the standard
deviation is p (1 − p ) , where 0 < p < 1 .

The maximum value of p (1 − p ) coincides with the maximum value of p (1 − p ) in the

domain where p (1 − p ) > 0 , because y = x is an increasing function throughout the domain.

y p (1 − p ) is a concave-down parabola with maximum at p =

1
The graph of= .
2

1 1 1 1
Hence, when p = , variance is a maximum of  1 −  =, and the standard deviation is a
2 2 2 4
1 1
maximum of = .
4 2
1
So, the maximum standard deviation for a Bernoulli distribution is .
2
Answer
1
2

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
16 A researcher has calculated the mean and the variance for a sample of a given random variable that
has a binomial distribution.

(a) If the mean of the data set is 42 and the variance is 6 , determine the number of trials ( n ) and
the probability of success ( p ) .

Worked solution
Form two simultaneous equations with n and p .
The mean is 42 and the variance is 6 .
E ( X ) = np and Var (=
X ) np (1 − p )

np = 42 [1]
np (1 − p ) =
6 [ 2]
Substitute [1] into [ 2] , and then solve for p .

42 (1 − p ) =
6
6
1− p =
42
1
1− p =
7
6
p=
7
6
Substitute p = into [1] and solve for n .
7
6
n× =
42
7
7
=
n 42 ×
6
= 49
6
The number of trials is n = 49 with a probability of success of p = .
7
Answer
6
n = 49 , p =
7

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(b) A new set of data was collected and the researcher noticed that the mean and variance of the
new set of data were double the corresponding values of the first set of data. Compare the two
sets of data using appropriate calculations involving the values of n and p .

Worked solution
As the values have doubled, the mean is now 84 and the variance is now 12 .
np = 84 [1]
12 [ 2]
np (1 − p ) =

Substitute [1] into [ 2] and solve for p .

84 (1 − p ) =
12
7 (1 − p ) =
1
1
1− p =
7
6
p=
7
6
Substitute p = into [1] and solve for n .
7
6
n× =
84
7
7
n= 84 ×
6
= 98
When both the mean and the variance are doubled, the probability of success does not change,
6
p = , but the number of data collected doubles to n = 98 .
7
Answer
6
The probability of success does not change, p = , but the number of data collected doubles to
7
n = 98.

(c) The researcher realised that she had omitted the results for 10 trials from the first set of data.
When she calculated the mean, after adding the 10 additional results, she noticed that the mean
was unchanged at µ = 42. What variance should the researcher expect for this set of data? Give
your answer correct to 2 decimal places.
Worked solution
Use the formula E ( X =
) µ= np to calculate the probability of success for this data where
n = 49 + 10 = 59 and µ = 42 .

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
42 = 59 p
42
p=
59
= 0.7119
Calculate the variance:
Var (=
X ) np (1 − p )
 42 
= 42 × 1 − 
 59 
= 12.10
The researcher should expect the variance for this set of data to be 12.10 .
Answer
12.10

(d) Another researcher has conducted the same experiment and recorded the data for 56 trials. He
6
calculated the probability of success for this set of data to be p = . What are the values of the
7
mean and variance the researcher would expect to calculate for this set of data? Give your
answers correct to 2 decimal places.
Worked solution
6
n = 56 , p =
7
Calculating the mean and variance:
E ( X ) = np
6
= 56 ×
7
= 48
Var (=
X ) np (1 − p )
 6
= 48 1 − 
 7
1
= 48 ×
7
= 6.86
The mean and variance the researcher would expect to calculate for this set of data is
E ( X ) = 48 and Var (X) = 6.86.

Answer
E ( X ) = 48 , Var (X) = 6.86

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(e) Write a statement to describe the effect on the mean and variance as the number of trials
increases.
Worked solution
By considering the formula for the mean, E ( X ) = np , you can see the consequence of varying
the value of n while np remains constant, or varying the value of n while p remains constant.
Results are summarised in the table.
n p E(X ) Var (X)

(a) 49 6 42 6
7

(d) 56 6 48 6.86
7

(b) 98 6 84 12
7

(a) 49 6 42 6
7

(a) 49 6 42 6
7

(c) 59 42 42 12.10
59

Answer
If the mean is the same but the number of trials is larger, p decreases, which, in turn, produces
an increase in the variance of the sample. If the probability of success is the same but the
number of trials is larger, this produces an increase in both the mean and the variance of the
sample.

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland

Worked solutions
Chapter 8 Binomial distributions
Chapter review 8
TF Technology free question

TF 1 A die is rolled and a spinner numbered from 7 to 10 is spun. Let X be the difference between the
numbers on the spinner and die.

(a) Construct a table to show the probability distribution of X . Express the probabilities as
fractions in simplest form.
Worked solution
The sample space:
1, 7 1,8 1,9 1,10 
2, 7 2,8 2,9 2,10 

3, 7 3,8 3,9 3,10 
 
4, 7 4,8 4,9 4,10 
5, 7 5,8 5,9 5,10 
 
6, 7 6,8 6,9 6,10 
The difference values:
6 7 8 9
5 6 7 8
4 5 6 7
3 4 5 6
2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4
P ( X= 1=
) P ( X= 9 )
1
=
24
P ( X= 2=
) P ( X= 8)
2
=
24
1
=
12

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
P ( X= 3=
) P ( X= 7 )
3
=
24
1
=
8
P ( X= 4=
) P ( X= 5)
( X 6)
= P=
4
=
24
1
=
6
Answer
x 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

P ( X = x) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
24 12 8 6 6 6 8 12 24

(b) Determine the following probabilities.

(i) The difference is between 4 and 6 inclusive.

Worked solution
P ( 4 ≤ X ≤ 6) =
P ( X =+
4 ) P ( X =+
5) P ( X =
6)
1
= ×3
6
1
=
2
1
The probability that the difference is between 4 and 6 inclusive is .
2
Answer
1
2

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(ii) The difference is at least 3 .

Worked solution
P ( X ≥ 3) =1 − ( P ( X =1) + P ( X =2 ) )
 1 2 
= 1−  + 
 24 24 
1
= 1−
8
7
=
8
7
The probability that the difference is at least 3 is .
8
Answer
7
8

TF 2 Two fair dice are rolled. One is numbered 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3 and the other 2, 2, 4, 4, 5, 6. Let X be the sum
of the numbers on the upper faces of the two dice.

(a) Construct the probability distribution table for X . Express the probabilities as fractions in
simplest form.
Worked solution
The sample space:
 (1, 2 ) , (1, 2 ) , (1, 4 ) , (1, 4 ) , (1,5) , (1, 6 ) , 

 (1, 2 ) , (1, 2 ) , (1, 4 ) , (1, 4 ) , (1,5) , (1, 6 ) , 
( 2, 2 ) , ( 2, 2 ) , ( 2, 4 ) , ( 2, 4 ) , ( 2,5) , ( 2, 6 ) ,

( 2, 2 ) , ( 2, 2 ) , ( 2, 4 ) , ( 2, 4 ) , ( 2,5 ) , ( 2, 6 ) ,
( 3, 2 ) , ( 3, 2 ) , ( 3, 4 ) , ( 3, 4 ) , ( 3,5) , ( 3, 6 ) , 
 
( 3, 2 ) , ( 3, 2 ) , ( 3, 4 ) , ( 3, 4 ) , ( 3,5) , ( 3, 6 ) 
The sums:
3 3 5 5 6 7
3 3 5 5 6 7
4 4 6 6 7 8
4 4 6 6 7 8
5 5 7 7 8 9
5 5 7 7 8 9

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
) P ( X= 4 )
P ( X= 3=
( X 8)
= P=
4
=
36
1
=
9
P ( X= 5=
) P ( X= 7 )
8
=
36
2
=
9
6
P ( X= 6=
)
36
1
=
6
2
P ( X= 9=
)
36
1
=
18
Answer
x 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

P ( X = x) 1 1 2 1 2 1 1
9 9 9 6 9 9 18

(b) Determine the exact mean sum of the pair of numbers on the dice.
Worked solution
1 1 2 1 2 1 1
E ( X ) =3 × + 4 × + 5 × + 6 × + 7 × + 8 × + 9 ×
9 9 9 6 9 9 18
35
=
6
5
=5
6
5
The mean sum of the numbers on the dice is 5 .
6
Answer
5
5
6

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
3 Consider the following probability distribution.

x 20 40 60 80 100

P ( X = x) 0.129 0.215 0.346 0.180 0.130

Determine the following values.

(a) E(X )

Worked solution
E ( X ) = ∑ xi pi
= 20 × 0.129 + 40 × 0.215 + 60 × 0.346 + 80 × 0.18 + 100 × 0.13
= 59.34
Answer
E ( X ) = 59.34

(b) Var (X)

Worked solution
E ( X 2 ) = 202 × 0.129 + 402 × 0.215 + 602 × 0.346 + 802 × 0.18 + 1002 × 0.13
= 4093.2

Var ( X ) = E ( X 2 ) − ( E ( X ) )
2

= 4093.2 − 59.342
= 571.9644
Answer
Var (X) = 571.9644

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
4 Consider the following probability distribution. Determine the standard deviation of X, correct to
2 decimal places.

x 16 17 18 19

P ( X = x) 1 1 1 1
8 4 2 8
Worked solution
E ( X ) = ∑ xi pi
1 1 1 1
= 16 × + 17 × + 18 × + 19 ×
8 4 2 8
141
=
8

( ) 1 1 1
E X 2 = 162 × + 17 2 × + 182 × + 192 ×
8 4 2
1
8
2491
=
8

( )
( X ) E X 2 − ( E ( X ))
2
=
Var
2
2491  141 
= − 
8  8 
47
=
64

σ = Var ( X )
47
=
64
47
=
8
= 0.86 ( 2 d.p.)

The standard deviation is 0.86 .

Answer
0.86

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
TF 5 =
Transform the probability distribution according to the rule Y 0.7 X − 5 .

x 80 90 100 110 120

P ( X = x) 0.01 0.27 0.25 0.16 0.31

Worked solution
=Y 0.7 X − 5
, y 0.7 ( 80=
x = 80= ) − 5 51
, y 0.7 ( 90=
x = 90= ) − 5 58
x = 100
= , y 0.7 (100
= ) − 5 65
x = 110
= , y 0.7 (110
= ) − 5 72
x = 120
= , y 0.7 (120
= ) − 5 79
Answer
y 51 58 65 72 79

P (Y = y ) 0.01 0.27 0.25 0.16 0.31

6 Two coins are flipped 40 times. Determine the probability, correct to 3 decimal places, of the
following outcomes.

(a) two heads exactly ten times

Worked solution
n 1 3
P ( X= x=
)   p x (1 − p ) , where n = 40 , x = 10 , p = , 1 − p =
n− x

 x 4 4
 40   1   3 
10 30

P (=X 10=)     
 10   4   4 
= 0.144 ( 3 d.p.)
The probability of two heads exactly ten times is 0.144 .
Answer
0.144

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(b) a double (heads or tails) at least half of the time
Worked solution
X ~ B ( 40, 0.5 )

P ( X ≥ 20 ) =
1 − P ( X ≤ 19 )
= 1 − 0.4373
= 0.563 ( 3 d.p.)
The probability of a double at least half of the time is 0.563 .
Answer
0.563

7 When Jacob and Lachlan play croquet, Lachlan wins 55% of the time. If they play the best of
15 games, what is the chance that Jacob will win? Give your answer correct to 2 decimal places.
Worked solution
If Jacob wins, it is the same as if Lachlan wins fewer than half of the games.
X ~ B (15, 0.55 )

P ( X ≤ 7) =
0.35 ( 2 d.p.)
The chance that Lachlan wins fewer than half of the games, and hence that Jacob will win, is
0.35 .
Answer
0.35

8 Use a probability distribution to determine the median of X ~ B ( 5,0.45 ) .

Worked solution
X ~ B ( 5,0.45 )
Using a calculator for individual probabilities:

x 0 1 2 3 4 5

P ( X = x) 0.0503 0.2059 0.3369 0.2757 0.1128 0.0185

Total probability is 1.0001 due to rounding.

P ( X ≤=
1) 0.0503 + 0.2059
= 0.2562

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
P ( X ≤=
2 ) 0.2562 + 0.3369
= 0.5931
The cumulative probability distribution first exceeds 0.5 when x = 2 .
The median is 2 .
Answer
2

9 Use technology to determine the median of X ~ B ( 60,0.84 ) .

Worked solution
X ~ B ( 60,0.84 )

P ( X ≤ 50 ) =
0.49

P ( X ≤ 51) =
0.63

The cumulative probability distribution first exceeds 0.5 when x = 51 .

The median is 51 .
Answer
51

10 Calculate the stated probability for the following binomial distributions. Express your answers as
fractions in simplest form.

 3
(a) If X ~ B  5,  , calculate P ( X = 3) .
 5
Worked solution
n
P ( X= x=
)   p x (1 − p )
n− x

 x
5 3
3 2

)     
2
P ( X= 3=
 3  5   5 
216
=
625
Answer
216
P ( X= 3=
)
625

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland

 7
(b) If X ~ B  6,  , calculate P ( X = 4 ) .
 10 
Worked solution
n
)   p x (1 − p )
P ( X= x=
n− x

 x

6 7
4 2

)      
3
P ( X= 4=
 4   10   10 
64827
=
200 000
Answer
64827
P ( X= 4=
)
200 000

11 A coin, biased so that P ( H )= 2 × P ( T ) , is flipped eight times. The probability that a coin flipper gets
exactly three heads is best represented by which of the following expressions?

8  2   1  8  2   1 
5 3 3 2

A  3  3   3  B  5  3   3 
         

8  2  8  1  8  2   1 

3 5 3 5

C  5  5  +  3  3  D  3  3   3 
          
Worked solution
P ( H ) = 2 P (T )
P ( H ) + P (T ) =
1
P (T )= 1 − P ( H )
P(H
= ) 2 1 − P ( H ) 
= 2 − 2P ( H )
=2 P ( H ) + 2P ( H )
= 3P ( H )
2
P(H ) =
3
2 1
n =8, p = , 1− p =
3 3
n
P ( X= x=
)   p x (1 − p )
n− x

 x

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland

8 2
3 5

)      
1
P ( X= 3=
 3  3   3 
The correct option is D.
Answer
D

12 A die is rolled and you record a success for any value greater than 2 . Determine the values of the
mean and the variance of the Bernoulli distribution (the number of successes in a single trial).
Worked solution
p P ( > 2) .
Let =

4
p=
6
2
=
3
2
The mean is .
3
= p (1 − p )
Variance
2  2
= × 1 − 
3  3
2 1
= ×
3 3
2
=
9
2
The variance is .
9
Answer
2 2
mean: ; variance:
3 9

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
TF 13 For each of the following, calculate the exact value of the unknown parameter, n or p .

(a) X ~ B ( 28, p ) , E ( X ) = 2

Worked solution
E ( X ) = np
2 = 28 p
2
p=
28
1
=
14
Answer
1
p=
14

(b) X ~ B ( n, 0.15 ) , E ( X ) = 7.5

Worked solution
E ( X ) = np
7.5= n × 0.15
n = 50
Answer
n = 50

14 For the variable Y ~ B ( n, p ) , it is known that E (Y ) = 32 and Var (Y) = 6.4. Calculate the number of
trials, n , and the probability of success, p .

Worked solution
E (Y ) = np
32 = np

(Y ) np (1 − p )
Var =
6.4 32 (1 − p )
=
0.2 = 1 − p
p = 0.8
32 = np
= n × 0.8
n = 40

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
Answer
n = 40 , p = 0.8

TF 15 When Yehudi and Carlos play racquetball, the probability that Yehudi wins a point is 0.35 .

(a) How many points would you expect Yehudi to win from 15 points? Give your answer to the
nearest whole number of points.
Worked solution
X = number of points Yehudi wins
n = 15 , p =0.35 , X ~ B (15, 0.35 )

E ( X ) = np
= 15 × 0.35
= 5.25
In practice, this is likely to be 5 points.
Answer
5 points

(b) Comment on your reaction if Yehudi won 10 from 15 points.

Worked solution
E ( X ) = 5.25

10 − E ( X ) =
10 − 5.25
= 4.75
If Yehudi won 10 of the first 15 points, you would be quite surprised because the number is
well above the expected number.
Answer
Quite surprised, because the number is well above the expected number.

16 If Y ~ B (100, 0.2 ) , what is the value of µ ?

A 0.8 B 20 C 80 D 16
Worked solution
µ = np
= 100 × 0.2
= 20
The correct option is B.

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
Answer
B

TF 17 For a particular binomial random variable Y, it is

known that Var (Y) = 14.4. If 60 trials were
conducted, what could be the probability of success, p ?

A 0.6 only B 0.24 only C 0.6 or 0.4 D 0.24 or 0.76

Worked solution
σ 2 np (1 − p )
=
14.4 60 p (1 − p )
=
0.24= p − p 2
p 2 − p + 0.24 =
0
( p − 0.4 )( p − 0.6) =
0
p = 0.6 or p = 0.4
The correct option is C.
Answer
C

18 A quality control officer at a manufacturing company has found that, on average, 10% of the products
are faulty.

(a) If a batch of 20 products is chosen, draw a graph to represent the probabilities of each possible
value for the number of faulty products in the batch.
Worked solution
X ~ B ( 20, 0.1)
Use a graphics calculator to determine individual probability values.
Answer

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(b) Determine the average number of faulty products for a sample of 20 products and its standard
deviation, correct to 2 decimal places.
Worked solution
Let X be the number of faulty products.
Use the formulas E ( X ) = np and
= σ np (1 − p ) , where n is the number of products, p is
the probability of success (faulty product) and (1 − p ) is the probability of failure (good
product).
E ( X=
) 20 × 0.1
=2
σ= 20 × 0.1× 0.9
= 1.8
= 1.34 ( 2 d.p.)

The average number of faulty products for a sample of 20 product is E ( X ) = 2 and its standard
deviation is σ = 1.34 .
Answer
average: 2; standard deviation: 1.34

19 A standard 52-card deck is reduced to 32 by removing all of the picture cards (king, queen, jack), all
of the aces and the black twos and threes. Two cards are drawn without replacement.

(a) Construct a probability distribution table for the number of hearts drawn, X.
Worked solution
There are 9 hearts out of 32 cards.
Let H be hearts and N be ‘not hearts’.
P ( X= 2=
) P ( HH )
9 8
= ×
32 31
9
=
124
) P ( HN ) + P ( NH )
P ( X= 1=
9 23 23 9
= × + ×
32 31 32 31
207
=
496

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland

P(X = 1− ( P ( X =
0) = 1) )
2) + P ( X =
 9 207 
= 1−  + 
 124 496 
253
=
496
Answer
x 0 1 2

P( X = x ) 253 207 9
496 496 124

(b) Determine the probability that both cards are black.

Worked solution
14 13
)
P ( BB= ×
32 31
91
=
496
91
The probability that both cards are black is .
496
Answer
91
496

(c) Determine the probability of drawing at least one black card from the pack.
Worked solution
P ( at least 1 black ) = 1 − P ( both red )
= 1 − P ( RR )
18 17
=−
1 ×
32 31
343
=
496
343
The probability of drawing at least one black card from the pack is .
496
Answer
343
496

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(d) Determine the probability that both cards are diamonds, given that both are red.
Worked solution
Given that P ( 2 diamonds ∩ 2 red ) =
P ( 2 diamonds ) , because all diamonds are red, then:

P ( DD ∩ RR )
P ( DD| both red ) =
P ( RR )
P ( DD )
=
P ( RR )
×
9 8
= 32 31
×
18 17
32 31

4
=
17
4
The probability that both cards are diamonds, given that both are red is .
17
Answer
4
17

20 On his shift at the emergency ward, Michael takes 15 patients to have X-rays. Of these patients, 20%
are children. Determine the following probabilities, correct to 4 decimal places.

(a) Michael takes exactly three children for an X-ray.

Worked solution
n = 15 , x = 3 , p = 0.2 , 1 − p =
0.8

 15 
P ( X= 3=
)   ( 0.2 ) ( 0.8)
3 12

3
= 0.2501 ( 4 d.p.)

The probability that Michael takes exactly three children for an X-ray is 0.2501 .
Answer
0.2501

(b) Michael takes fewer than three children for an X-ray.

Worked solution
n = 15 , x = 3 , p = 0.2 , 1 − p =
0.8

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
P ( X < 3) =
P ( X =+
0 ) P ( X =+
1) P ( X =
2)
 15 
( 0.8) + 15 ( 0.8)
= ( 0.2 ) +   ( 0.8) ( 0.2 )
15 14 1 13 2

2
= 0.3980 ( 4 d.p.)
The probability that Michael takes fewer than three children for an X-ray is 0.3980 .
Answer
0.3980

(c) Michael takes three children for an X-ray, including the first two patients.
Worked solution
The first two are given: CC .

The probability of one of the last 13 patients being a child is: 13 ( 0.8) ( 0.2 )
12 1
.

P ( 3 children including first

= 2) ( 0.2 ) × 13 ( 0.8) ( 0.2 )
2 12 1

= 0.0071 ( 4 d.p.)
The probability that Michael takes three children for an X-ray, including the first two patients is
0.0071 .
Answer
0.0071

21 A coin is biased in such a way that P ( H )= 3 × P ( T ) . The coin is tossed 100 times. Let X stand for
the number of tails obtained.

(a) Use the mean and standard deviation to estimate a range of values of X within which the
number of tails would fall in 95% of cases.
Worked solution
X ~ B (100,0.25)

E ( X ) = np
= 100 × 0.25
= 25
Var (=
X ) np (1 − p )
= 25 × 0.75
= 18.75
σ = 4.33
µ + 2σ = 25 + 2 × 4.33
= 33.66

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
µ − 2σ = 25 − 2 × 4.33
= 16.34
95% of 100 -toss samples will result in 17 and 33 tails inclusive.
Answer
17 to 33

(b) Calculate the actual probability of the range of X values occurring, as a percentage, correct to 1
decimal place.
Worked solution
X ~ B (100,0.25)

P (17 ≤ X ≤ 33=
) P ( X ≤ 33) − P ( X ≤ 16)
= 0.9724 − 0.0211
= 0.951 ( 3 d.p.)
The actual probability is 95.1% .
Answer
95.1%

22 E. T. ‘Hoops’ Hooper has an 85% success rate from the free-throw line in basketball. At each training
session, he shoots 50 times from the line.

(a) What is the number of successful free-throws Hoops should expect?

A 15 B 57 or 58 C 35 D 42 or 43

Worked solution
Let X be the number of successful shots.
X ~ B ( 50,0.85)

E ( X ) = np
= 50 × 0.85
= 42.5
Hoops can expect 42 or 43 successes.
The correct option is D.
Answer
D

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(b) Within what range of successes would Hoops expect to be about 95% of the time?

A 40 to 45 B 31 to 54 C 38 to 47 D 36 to 49
Worked solution
X ~ B ( 50,0.85)

E ( X ) = 42.5

Var (=
X ) np (1 − p )
= 42.5 × 0.15
= 6.375
σ = 6.375
= 2.525
µ + 2σ= 42.5 + 2 × 2.525
= 47.55
µ − 2σ= 42.5 − 2 × 2.525
= 37.45
The range of successes Hoops could expect about 95% of the time is from 38 to 47 .
The correct option is C.
Answer
C

23 A die, labelled 1 to 6, is loaded so that P ( odd )= 3 × P ( even ) .

(a) If rolling an odd number is considered to be a success, determine P ( success ) .

Worked solution
p+q =
1
p= 3 × q
p =3 × (1 − p )
p= 3 − 3 p
4p = 3
p = 0.75
So P ( success ) = 0.75

Answer
P ( success ) = 0.75

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(b) The die is rolled 30 times.

(i) Write this information in the form X ~ B ( n, p ) .

Worked solution
n = 30 , p = 0.75

So X ~ B ( 30, 0.75 )

Answer
X ~ B ( 30, 0.75 )

(ii) What is the expected number of odd numbers that will occur in the 30 rolls?

Worked solution
E ( X ) = np
= 30 × 0.75
= 22.5
The expected number of odd numbers that will occur in the 30 rolls is E ( X ) = 22.5 .

In reality, 22 or 23 odd numbers.

Answer
22 or 23
(iii) Discuss the likelihood of rolling 28 odd numbers in the 30 rolls.

Worked solution
E (=
X ) 22.5
= µ

Var (=
X ) np (1 − p )
= 22.5 × 0.25
= 5.625
σ = 5.625
= 2.3717
µ − 2σ= 22.5 − 2 × 2.3717
= 17.76
µ + 2σ= 22.5 + 2 × 2.3717
= 27.24
In 30 rolls, 95% of the samples you would expect to see 18–27 odd numbers.
To roll 28 odd numbers in the 30 rolls would be unusual, as it is outside the range for which
95% of results occur. However, given that p > 0.5 , the distribution is negatively skewed and
doesn’t form a close approximation to the normal curve.

Copyright © Pearson Australia 2019 (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) ISBN 978 1 4886 2142 0 Page 21
 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland

The probability of rolling exactly 28 odd numbers is 30C28 × ( 0.75 ) × ( 0.25 ) =

28 2
0.00863 .

Answer
Unlikely, because it is outside the range for which 95% of results occur.

(c) The die is used in a game that requires two odd numbers to be rolled in a row before a player can
start. The single die is rolled twice to get the pair of numbers. Draw a table to show the
probability distribution of the number of odd numbers in the two rolls.
Worked solution
Let Y be the number of odd numbers.
Y ~ B ( 2,0.75 )

P (Y= 0=
) ( 0.25)
2

= 0.0625

P (Y= 1=
) 2 ( 0.75) ( 0.25)
1 1

= 0.375
P (Y =
2) =
1 − ( 0.0625 + 0.375 )
= 0.5625
Answer
y 0 1 2

P (Y = y ) 0.0625 0.375 0.5625

24 A game is set up with the probability distribution of X given by:

k ( 6 − x ) if x ∈ {0,1, 2,3, 4}
P ( X= x=
) 
0 for all other values of x

In the game, scoring 0 or 4 pays $5 and scoring 1 pays $20 .

(a) For the game to be fair, what should be the charge to play?
Worked solution
A table for this distribution is:
x 0 1 2 3 4

P ( X = x) 6k 5k 4k 3k 2k

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
6k + 5k + 4k + 3k + 2k =1
20k = 1
1
k=
20
1
Using k = , the table below shows this distribution:
20
x 0 1 2 3 4

P ( X = x) 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1

Expected payout for any game:

$5 × ( 0.3 + 0.1) + $20 × 0.25 =
$7

For the game to be fair, the charge should be the same as the expected payout: $7 .
Answer
$7

(b) Determine the standard deviation of the payout amount, to the nearest cent.
Worked solution
Let Y be the payout amount, in dollars.
y 0 5 20

P (Y = y ) 0.35 0.4 0.25

E (Y ) = 7

( )
E Y 2 =52 × 0.4 + 202 × 0.25
= 110

( )
(Y ) E Y 2 − ( E (Y ) )
2
=
Var
= 110 − 7 2
= 61

σ = Var (Y )
= 61
= 7.81 ( 2 d.p.)
The standard deviation is $7.81 .
Answer
$7.81

Copyright © Pearson Australia 2019 (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) ISBN 978 1 4886 2142 0 Page 23
 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
(c) Determine the percentage of payouts that fall within the interval µ ± 2σ . Comment on the result
in terms of the estimated 95% interval for many distributions.
Worked solution
µ ± 2σ = 7 ± 2 × 7.81
= 7 ± 15.62
So the interval is [ −8.62, 22.62] .
The interval contains the entire distribution, so 100% of 0 , 5 , 20 .
With only three values in the distribution, the interval was either going to contain all or 75% or
65% of payouts, so 100% is as close as this distribution could get to 95% .
Answer
100% With only three values in the distribution, 100% is as close as possible to 95%.

25 In Michelle’s game of chance, the player rolls a die. If a prime number results, Michelle pays the
player $20. If a six results, the die is rolled again. If a second six results, Michelle pays the player $50.
If 200 games are to be played in an evening, and Michelle needs to cover costs of $500 for hire of the
venue and refreshments as well as raise $1000 for charity, what is the minimum whole dollar amount
she should charge to play the game?
Worked solution
Sample space for one roll of a die: {1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6}

P ( prime ) = P ({2,3,5})
3
=
6
1
=
2

P ( ( 6,6 ) )=
1 1
×
6 6
1
=
36
1 1 
P ( no win ) =−1  + 
 2 36 
17
=
36
Expected earning for each turn:
1 1 17
$20 × + $50 × + $0 × = $11.39
2 36 36

Copyright © Pearson Australia 2019 (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) ISBN 978 1 4886 2142 0 Page 24
 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
$1500
Amount needed, per turn, to cover costs and donation: = $7.50
200
$11.39 + $7.50 =
$18.89
Hence, the minimum whole dollar amount she should charge to play the game would be $19 .
Answer
$19

26 A market stall convenor purchases mechanical toys from three different suppliers: 80% of the toys
from supplier A are perfect, while 70% of the toys from supplier B and only 40% of the toys from
supplier C are perfect. She needs 15 toys for her stall each week. If the convenor buys equal numbers
from each supplier, what is the probability that fewer than 3 are faulty? Give your answer correct to
3 decimal places.
Worked solution
Possibilities:
None faulty: none from any of the three suppliers
One faulty: one from A or one from B or one from C
Two faulty: two from A, two from B, two from C, or one each from A and B, one each from
A and C, one each from B and C
P ( none from A ) = 0.85
= 0.32768
P ( none from B ) = 0.75
= 0.16807
P ( none from C ) = 0.45
= 0.01024
P ( one from A ) =
5 × 0.84 × 0.2
= 0.4096
P ( one from B ) =
5 × 0.7 4 × 0.3
= 0.36015
P ( one from C ) =
5 × 0.44 × 0.6
= 0.0768
5
P ( two from A ) =   × 0.83 × 0.22
 2
= 0.2048

Copyright © Pearson Australia 2019 (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) ISBN 978 1 4886 2142 0 Page 25
 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
5
P ( two from B ) =   × 0.73 × 0.32
 2
= 0.3087
5
P ( two from C ) =   × 0.43 × 0.62
 2
= 0.2304
P ( none faulty ) = P ( none from A ) × P ( none from B ) × P ( none from C )
= 0.32768 × 0.16807 × 0.01024
= 0.00056
P ( one faulty ) =P ( one from A ) × P ( none from B ) × P ( none from C )
+ P ( none from A ) × P ( one from B ) × P ( none from C )
+ P ( none from A ) × P ( none from B ) × P ( one from C )
=0.4096 × 0.16807 × 0.01024
+0.32768 × 0.36015 × 0.01024
+0.32768 × 0.16807 × 0.0768
= 0.00614
P ( two faulty ) = P ( 2 from A ) × P ( 0 from B ) × P ( 0 from C )
+ P ( 0 from A ) × P ( 2 from B ) × P ( 0 from C )
+ P ( 0 from A ) × P ( 0 from B ) × P ( 2 from C )
+ P (1 from A ) × P (1 from B ) × P ( 0 from C )
+ P (1 from A ) × P ( 0 from B ) × P (1 from C )
+ P ( 0 from A ) × P (1 from B ) × P (1 from C )
= 0.2048 × 0.16807 × 0.01024
+0.32768 × 0.3087 × 0.01024
+0.32768 × 0.16807 × 0.2304
+0.4096 × 0.36015 × 0.01024
+0.4096 × 0.16807 × 0.0768
+0.32768 × 0.36015 × 0.0768
= 0.02993
0.037 ( 3 d.p.)
0.00056 + 0.00614 + 0.02993 =

The probability that fewer than 3 are faulty is 0.037 .

Answer
0.037

Copyright © Pearson Australia 2019 (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) ISBN 978 1 4886 2142 0 Page 26
 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
27 A cereal manufacturer is running a promotion on the single-serving boxes of cereal stating that, ‘One
in five cereal boxes contains a free gift!’ Carol intends to buy one cereal box every day for one week.
For the following questions, give your answers correct to 3 decimal places, where necessary.

(a) If the variable X represents the number of cereal boxes with a free gift, calculate the probability
that Carol will win exactly one free gift from the seven cereal boxes she intends to buy.
Worked solution
X ~ B ( n, p ) with P ( X= x=
) nCx ( p ) (1 − p )
x n− x

1
n =7, p = and x = 1
5
1 7 −1

) C1    
1 4
P ( X= 1= 7

5 5
= 0.367 ( 3 d.p.)

The probability that Carol would win one free gift from the seven cereal boxes is 0.367 .
Answer
0.367

(b) What is the probability that Carol will win no free gifts from the seven cereal boxes she intends
to buy?
Worked solution

X ~ B ( n, p ) with P ( X= x=
) nCx ( p ) (1 − p )
x n− x

1
n = 7, p = and x = 0
5
0 7 −0

) C0    
1 4
P ( X= 0= 7

 5  5
= 0.210 ( 3 d.p.)
The probability that Carol will win no free gifts from the seven cereal boxes is 0.210 .
Answer
0.210

(c) If Carol wins one free gift on the first day, calculate the probability that she will win exactly one
more free gift in the next six days.
Worked solution
Buying a cereal box is an independent event, so whether or not she wins on the first day is
1
irrelevant. Only the probability of winning a free gift matters, p = .
5
As there are only 6 remaining days, n = 6 and x = 1 .

Copyright © Pearson Australia 2019 (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) ISBN 978 1 4886 2142 0 Page 27
 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
1 6 −1

) C1    
1 4
P ( X= 1= 6

5 5
= 0.393 ( 3 d.p.)

The probability that Carol will win exactly one free gift from the six cereal boxes is 0.393 .
Answer
0.393

(d) If Carol does not win a free gift in the first five days, calculate the probability that she will win
more than one free gift in the next two days.
Worked solution
For the last two days:
P ( X > 1=
) P ( X= 2 )
2 2− 2
1 4
= C2    
2

5 5
= 0.04
The probability that Carol will win more than one free gift from the two cereal boxes is 0.04 .
Answer
0.04

(e) Carol thinks that if she buys one cereal box per day for 10 days her chances of winning more
than two free gifts will increase. Explain why Carol is correct in her thinking, using appropriate
calculations.
Worked solution
n=7
2
P ( X > 2 ) =1 − ∑ P ( X =x )
x =0

1− (P( X =
= 0) + P ( X = 2) )
1) + P ( X =
 7 5
= 1 −  ( 0.8) + 7 × 0.2 × ( 0.8) +   ( 0.2 ) ( 0.8) 
7 6 2

 2 
= 1 − 0.852
= 0.148
n = 10

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 Mathematical Methods 12 Queensland
2
P ( X > 2 ) =1 − ∑ P ( X =x )
x =0

1− (P( X =
= 2) )
1) + P ( X =
0) + P ( X =
  10  8
=1 −  ( 0.8) + 10 × 0.2 × ( 0.8) +   ( 0.2 ) ( 0.8) 
10 9 2

 2 
= 1 − 0.678
= 0.322
Carol is correct in her thinking because
P ( X > 2(10 days ) ) = 0.322 > P ( X > 2( 7 days ) ) = 0.148 .

Answer
P ( X > 2(10 days ) ) = 0.322 > P ( X > 2( 7 days ) ) = 0.148

(f) Carol wants to be 95% sure that she will win at least one free gift. For how many days does she
have to buy one cereal box per day for this chance?
Worked solution
P ( G= 0 ) < 0.05

( 0.8) < 0.05

n

log e ( 0.8) < log e ( 0.05)

n

n log e ( 0.8) < log e ( 0.05)

log e ( 0.05)
n>
log e ( 0.8)
n > 13.425
Carol has to buy a cereal box for at least 14 days in order to be 95% sure that she will win a
free gift.
Answer
14

Copyright © Pearson Australia 2019 (a division of Pearson Australia Group Pty Ltd) ISBN 978 1 4886 2142 0 Page 29