University of Khartoum
Faculty of Mathematical Sciences and Informatics
Information Technology Department
Applied Statistics
Lecture 4
Confidence interval for the proportion:
P(1 P) P(1 P)
P Z P P Z
2
n 2
n
Where:
x
P
n
x = number of sample units that possess the characteristics of interest.
n = sample size.
Example 1:
A sample of 500 nursing applications included 60 from men. Find the 90%
confidence interval of the true proportion of men who applied to the nursing
program.
Solution
1 0 .9 0 .1 0.05
2
60
Z Z 0.05 1.65 , P 0.12 , n 500
2
500
P(1 P) P(1 P)
P Z P P Z
2
n 2
n
(0.12)(0.88) (0.12)(0.88)
0.12 (1.65) P 0.12 (1.65)
500 500
0.096 P 0.144
9.6% P 14.4%
Hence, one can be 90% confident that the percentage of applicants who are men is
between 9.6% and 14.4%.
Example 2:
A survey of 200000 boat owners found that 12% of the pleasure boats were
named Serenity. Find the 95% confidence interval of the true proportion.
Solution
15
1 0.95 0.05 0.025 , Z Z 0.025 1.96 , P 0.12 , n 200000
2 2
P(1 P) P(1 P)
P Z P P Z
2
n 2
n
(0.12)(0.88) (0.12)(0.88)
0.12 (1.96) P 0.12 (1.96)
200000 200000
0.119 P 0.121
One can say with 95% confidence the true percentage is
between 11.9% and 12.1%.
Exercises:
1. A survey of 80 recent fatal traffic accidents showed that 46 were alcohol-
related. Find the 95% confidence interval of the true proportion of fatal
alcohol-related accidents.
2. In a certain state, a survey of 500 workers showed that 45% belong to a
union. Find the 90% confidence interval of the true proportion of
workers who belong to a union.
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Confidence interval for variance:
(n 1) S 2 2 (n 1) S 2
2 2
(n 1) (n 1)
1
2 2
A chi-square variable cannot be negative, and the distributions are positively
skewed. At about 100 degrees of freedom, the chi-square distribution becomes some
what symmetric. The area under each chi-square distribution is equal to 1 or 100%.
1
2 2
2 2
Example 1: 1
2 2
Find the 95% confidence interval for the variance and standard deviation of
the nicotine content of cigarettes if a sample of 20 cigarettes has a standard
deviation of 1.6 milligrams.
Solution
1 0.95 0.025
2
2 2
(n 1) 0.025 (19) 32.852
2
2 2 0.95
(n 1) 0.975 (19) 8.907 0.025 0.025
1
2 8.907 32.852
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(n 1) S 2 2 (n 1) S 2
2 2
(n 1) (n 1)
1
2 2
2
(19)(1.6) 2 (19)(1.6) 2
32.852 8.907
2
1.5 5.5
Hence, one can be 95% confident that the true variance is between 1.5 and 5.5.
For the standard deviation, the confidence interval is
2
1.5 5.5
1.2 2.3
One can be 95% confident that the true standard deviation is between 1.2 and 2.3.
Example 2:
Find the 90% confidence interval for the variance for the following data.
59 54 53 52 51 39 49 46 49 48
Solution
1
S2 (X X )2 28.2
n 1
1 0.9 0.05
2
2 2
( n 1) 0.05 (9) 16.919
2
2 2 0.05 0.9
(n 1) 0.95 (9) 3.325 0.05
1
2 3.325 16.919
(9)(28.2) 2 (9)(28.2)
16.919 3.325
2
15 76.3
Hence, one can be 90% confident that the true variance is between 15 and 76.3.
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