Analysis of NaTech

Accidents recorded
in Major Accident Databases
Michela Campedel1, Valerio Cozzani1,
Elisabeth Krausmann2, Ana Maria Cruz2

(1) Alma Mater Studiorum – Università di Bologna

Dipartimento di Ingegneria Chimica, Mineraria
e delle Tecnologie Ambientali, Bologna, Italy

(2) European Commission, Joint Research Centre

MAHB, Institute for the Protection and
Security of the Citizen, Ispra (VA), Italy

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 NaTech events : Natural disaster
triggered Technological accidents

damage to storage
tanks and pipelines

damage to process
seismic events
equipment
floods

release of hazardous
landslides
materials
lightning

hurricanes

tsunamis

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 Aims
 Retrieval and analysis of NaTech accidents
recorded in Major Accident Databases

 Identification and analysis of damage modes of

equipment items due to natural events

 Identification and analysis of consequences of

releases of hazardous substances in NaTech
events

 Identification of specific event trees for post-

release scenarios during NaTech events

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Historical Analysis of accident records
CRITERIA OF SELECTION:
 Industrial activities
Major accident
 Hazardous materials
 Specific equipment categories

• Loading/unloading and transport

pipeworks, pumps, compressors
• Storage
atmospheric/pressurized storage
tanks, warehouse
• Process
process vessels, reactors, heat
exchangers, pipeworks, pumps,
compressors

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 Major Accident Databases:
% Na-Tech Total
accidents records

ARIA (BARPI) 2÷3 30859

FACTS (TNO) 2÷3 22214
ICHEME u.a. u.a.
MARS (MAHB) 4÷5 602
MHIDAS (HSE) 2 7000
NRC u.a. u.a.

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 ALTRO;
OTHER 6; 2%
ICHEME; 13;
5%
ARIA; 72; 26% Accidents
triggered
by floods:
FACTS; 14;
NRC; 154;
5% 272 records
57% MHIDAS; 13; (1960-2007)
5%

MARS; 0;
0% FACTS; 1;
ALTRO;
OTHER 14; 1% MHIDAS; 9;
18% 11% Accidents
ICHEME; triggered
11; 14% by earthquakes:
78 records
NRC; 44; (1930-2007)
56%

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 Example I: Floods
272 number total of records
70 records report details on the flood (water height, etc.)

n.a 22

high v, known h 2
only inhigh 28h records sufficient
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data were recorded to
characterize both natural event severity, equipment
high v (flashflood) 8
damage and consequences of release scenarios
known h 22
h<0.5m; 11;
major severity 9 45%
h>1 m; 10;
42%
0 5 10 15 20 25

0.5m<h<1m;
3; 13%

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Floods: Industrial Activities involved

not known 33
other 7
production and storage of explosives 3
plastics manifacture 7
chemical 6
textiles 21
paper manifacture 4
phytosanitary production and storage 10
petrochemical storage 14

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
number of cases

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 Floods: Damage to Equipment
Categories of process equipment damaged in 272 NaTech
events triggered by floods

condensers 1
minor storage or warehouse 8
boilers 1
compressors 4 cimpressors
cylindrical
pumps vessels 12 and pumps
5% 4%
separators 23
pipelines
17%pipelines 77
underground storage tanks 17
floating roof storage tanks 101
Storage tanks
pressurized storage tanks 60 74%
atmospheric storage tank no details 152

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

items number

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 Floods: Damage to Equipment II
Type of damage to equipment (from 66 records where
sufficient data was reported)

roof failure 2
floating of tank 10
overturn tank 10
failure connections, valves and support structures 5
collapse tank 7
no specified damages 9
failure pipelines 10
dragging equipment 5
pipework detachment 8

0 2 4 6 8 10 12
number of cases

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 Floods: Substances Released
Substances released in NaTech accidents triggered by floods
u.a. 49
ammonia and by-products 5
oxides 5
aromatics 8
hydrocarbons 8
no specified chemicals and other 23
soap and detergent 1
Ca and acetylene 3
acid products 7
fertilizer 11
explosives 3
propane and natural gas 12
cyanide 5
oil, diesel, gasoline 142
chlorine 3

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

number of cases

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 Floods: Final Scenarios
Final scenarios in NaTech events triggered by floods
n.a. 134

explosion 9

dispersion 12

fire 26

water contamination 95

ground contamination 28

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

number of scenarios

explosion
5%
dispersion
7% pool no ignition
fire 16%
15%

w ater
contamination
57%

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 Two specific accident scenarios
were identified in the case of
NaTech accidents triggered by
floods:

SEVERE WATER TOXIC and/or FLAMMABLE

CONTAMINATION vapor formation and release
due to release of due to the reactions of chemicals
hazardous substances with water

Release of substances hazardous

for aquatic environment
(R51-52-53) Release of substances
reacting with water
(R14/15,R15/21,R29)

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 Example II: Earthquakes
Damage to Equipment
Damage to process equipment experienced during
earthquakes – data from 78 events reported in accident
databases
cooled tanks 2

distillation coloumn 1

heat exchanger 1
pipelines 53

pipeworks 439

pressurized storage tanks 7

Atmospheric storage tanks 250

0 100 200 300 400 500

number of items

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Earthquake: Damage to Equipment
Analysis of damage experienced by 257 process and
storage vessels in 33 different earthquake events
only structural
Minor:
Minor:
no known elephant
leakfoot
from
damage
buckling,
flanges or
4%
deformationconnections
of support structures,
26%
stretching of the bolts etc.
Severe:
Moderate: detachment
failure with of lossthe
frombolts,
failure of the
shellconnections/weldings,
damage with
release
roof top failure, failure of columns
70% Catastrophic:
and supportcollapse
structures with complete
loss of inventory
minor no
release moderate no
5% release
catastrophic 22%
45%

minor
2%
severe
26%

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 Earthquake: Final Scenarios
Final scenarios in 78 release events triggered by
earthquakes in process plants

not known 27

explosion 5

dispersion 5

fire 14

water contamination 10

pool whitout ignition 14

0 5 10 15 20 25 30
number of scenarios

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 Earthquake: Statistical data
Data from the analysis of 33 events with detailed data
related to storage tanks and process vessels where the
release of of flammable substances took place
Number of seismic events 29
Number of damaged equipment ≥254
Max number of damaged equipments in one event 97
Medium number of damaged equipments in one event 9
Number of damaged equipments with release ≥180
Number of cases of release with ignition ≥137
Ignition probability 0.761

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 Conclusions
 Main expected damage modes were identified for the
impact of floods and earthquakes in process plants and
storage farms.

 Data collected on final scenarios allow the identification

of specific event tree for post-release scenarios in
NaTech events.

 Retrieved data may be one of the elements for the

development of simplified equipment damage models in
NaTech events.

 Quality of available data on NaTech events is scarce:

the development of a specific database may be an
important element for the analysis, prevention and
mitigation of these events.

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