FUND PRINCIPLE OF COUNTING  8 months

Example 1 Kentucky Power & Light Now, we list all possible combinations
Company (KP&L) is starting a project of these stages by summing the
designed to increase the generating duration of stage 1 (design) and stage
capacity of one of its plants in 2 (construction):
northern Kentucky. The project is
 Design: 2 months, Construction:
divided into two sequential stages or
6 months → Total: 2 + 6 = 8
steps: stage 1 (design) and stage 2
months
(construction). Even though each
stage will be scheduled and controlled  Design: 2 months, Construction:
as closely as possible, management 7 months → Total: 2 + 7 = 9
cannot predict beforehand the exact months
time required to complete each stage
of the project. An analysis of similar  Design: 2 months, Construction:
construction projects revealed possible 8 months → Total: 2 + 8 = 10
completion times for the design stage months
of 2, 3, or 4 months and possible  Design: 3 months, Construction:
completion times for the construction 6 months → Total: 3 + 6 = 9
stage of 6, 7, or 8 months. In addition, months
because of the critical need for
additional electrical power,  Design: 3 months, Construction:
management set a goal of 10 months 7 months → Total: 3 + 7 = 10
for the completion of the entire months
project. How many possible
 Design: 3 months, Construction:
completion times are there for the
8 months → Total: 3 + 8 = 11
entire project? Enumerate all the
months
possible project completion times.
 Design: 4 months, Construction:
Answer: To find the total number of
6 months → Total: 4 + 6 = 10
possible project completion times, we
months
need to combine all possible times for
stage 1 (design) and stage 2  Design: 4 months, Construction:
(construction). 7 months → Total: 4 + 7 = 11
months
The design stage has 3 possible
completion times:  Design: 4 months, Construction:
8 months → Total: 4 + 8 = 12
 2 months
months
 3 months
List of all possible project
 4 months completion times:

The construction stage has 3 possible  8 months

completion times:
 9 months
 6 months
 10 months
 7 months
 11 months
  12 months For a four-digit PIN code, each digit
can be any number from 0 to 9, giving
How many possible completion
us 10 possible choices for each of the
times are there?
four positions. Since repetition is
There are 5 unique possible allowed, each digit can be used
completion times for the entire multiple times.
project: 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 months.
The total number of possible PIN codes
is:

Example 2: Mr. Bean has 3 different 10×10×10×10=104=10,00010 \times

pairs of trousers, 3 different shirts and 10 \times 10 \times 10 = 10^4 =
2 different ties. He chooses a pair of 10,00010×10×10×10=104=10,000
trousers, a shirt and a tie to wear
So, 10,000 different PIN codes can be
everyday. Find the maximum number
formed when repetition is allowed.
of days he does not need to repeat his
clothing?
Answer: Mr. Bean has 3 pairs of Part b: Repetition of digits is not
trousers, 3 shirts, and 2 ties. To figure allowed
out how many unique outfits he can
For this case, the first digit can be any
wear without repeating, we just
number from 0 to 9 (10 choices), but
multiply the number of choices he has
once a digit is used, it cannot be
for each item:
reused for the next positions. This
 3 trousers gives fewer choices for each
subsequent digit.
 3 shirts
 1st digit: 10 choices
 2 ties
 2nd digit: 9 choices (one less
The total number of possible
because one digit is already
combinations is:
used)
3×3×2=183 \times 3 \times 2 =
 3rd digit: 8 choices
183×3×2=18
 4th digit: 7 choices
So, Mr. Bean can go 18 days without
repeating the same combination of The total number of possible PIN codes
trousers, shirt, and tie. After that, he’s is:
back to recycling the same outfits,
10×9×8×7=5,04010 \times 9 \times 8
unless he gets creative!
\times 7 = 5,04010×9×8×7=5,040
Example 3: A safety deposit box
So, 5,040 different PIN codes can be
uses a four-digit pin code to open. How
formed when repetition is not allowed.
many 4-digit pin codes can be formed
from the digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
and 9 if
Part c: Repetition of digits is not
a: Repetition of digits is allowed allowed, and the PIN code must
be even
For the PIN to be even, the last digit  !!! denotes factorial, meaning
must be an even number. The even the product of all positive
digits are 0, 2, 4, 6, and 8 — 5 choices integers up to that number.
for the last digit.
Substituting the values:
For the first three digits, since
C(5,2)=5!2!(5−2)!=5×4×3!2×/1×3!
repetition is not allowed, the choices
reduce accordingly. Let’s break it C(5, 2) = \frac{5!}{2!(5 - 2)!} = \
down: frac{5 \times 4 \times 3!}{2 \times 1 \
times 3!}C(5,2)=2!(5−2)!5!=2×1×3!
 4th digit (last, even): 5 choices
5×4×3!
(0, 2, 4, 6, 8)
The 3!3!3! cancels out, so we are left
 1st digit: 9 choices (since one
with:
digit is used for the 4th
position) C(5,2)=5×42×1=202=10C(5, 2) = \
frac{5 \times 4}{2 \times 1} = \
 2nd digit: 8 choices (two digits
frac{20}{2} = 10C(5,2)=2×15×4
used)
=220=10
 3rd digit: 7 choices (three digits
Thus, there are 10 different
used)
combinations of two parts that can
The total number of possible PIN codes be selected from the group of five.
is:
Example 5 Find the number of teams
9×8×7×5=2,5209 \times 8 \times 7 \ of size 3 that can be formed from 5
times 5 = 2,5209×8×7×5=2,520 sales agents
So, 2,520 different PIN codes can be Answer:
formed when repetition is not allowed,
 n=5 (the total number of sales
and the code must be even.
agents),
 r=3r = 3r=3 (the size of the
COMPUTATION team).
Example 4 Consider a quality control Substituting the values:
procedure in which an inspector
C(5,3)=5!3!(5−3)!=5×4×3!3!×2!C(5,
randomly selects two of five parts to
3) = \frac{5!}{3!(5 - 3)!} = \frac{5 \
test for defects. In a group of five
times 4 \times 3!}{3! \times
parts, how many combinations of two
2!}C(5,3)=3!(5−3)!5!=3!×2!5×4×3!
parts can be selected?
The 3!3!3! cancels out, leaving:
Answer:
C(5,3)=5×42×1=202=10C(5, 3) = \
Where:
frac{5 \times 4}{2 \times 1} = \
 nnn is the total number of items frac{20}{2} = 10C(5,3)=2×15×4
(in this case, 5 parts), =220=10
 rrr is the number of items to So, 10 teams of size 3 can be formed
choose (in this case, 2 parts), from the 5 sales agents.
 Example 7 In how many ways can the
18 members of a boy scout troop elect
Example 6: From 5 sales agents and
a president, vicepresident, and a
8 auditors a team of size 3 is formed.
secretary, assuming that no member
Find the number of teams of size 3
can hold more than one of
that can be formed with 2 sales agents
and 1 auditor Answer: We will calculate the number
of ways to assign these three positions
Answer: Step 1: Select 2 sales agents
from 18 members, where no member
from 5
can hold more than one office.
Using the combination formula:
Step 1: Choose the president
C(n,r)=n!r!(n−r)!C(n, r) = \frac{n!}{r!
There are 18 members, so there are
(n - r)!}C(n,r)=r!(n−r)!n!
18 choices for who can be president.
where n=5n = 5n=5 (number of sales
Step 2: Choose the vice-president
agents) and r=2r = 2r=2 (we need to
choose 2 sales agents). After choosing the president, only 17
members remain, so there are 17
C(5,2)=5!2!(5−2)!=5×42×1=10C(5,
choices for vice-president.
2) = \frac{5!}{2!(5 - 2)!} = \frac{5 \
times 4}{2 \times 1} = 10C(5,2)=2! Step 3: Choose the secretary
(5−2)!5!=2×15×4=10
After choosing both the president and
Step 2: Select 1 auditor from 8 vice-president, only 16 members
remain, so there are 16 choices for
Using the same combination formula,
secretary.
where n=8n = 8n=8 (number of
auditors) and r=1r = 1r=1 (we need to Step 4: Multiply the results
choose 1 auditor):
To find the total number of ways to
C(8,1)=8!1!(8−1)!=81=8C(8, 1) = \ assign the three positions, multiply the
frac{8!}{1!(8 - 1)!} = \frac{8}{1} = number of choices for each role:
8C(8,1)=1!(8−1)!8!=18=8
18×17×16=4,89618 \times 17 \times
Step 3: Multiply the results 16 = 4,89618×17×16=4,896
To find the total number of teams, Thus, there are 4,896 ways to elect a
multiply the number of ways to choose president, vice-president, and
the sales agents by the number of secretary from the 18 members of the
ways to choose the auditor: troop.
10×8=8010 \times 8 = 8010×8=80
Thus, 80 teams of size 3 can be EXAMPLE 8:
formed with 2 sales agents and 1
1. In how many ways can the 1st,
auditor.
2nd, 3rd, and 4th place be
awarded to four athletes who
joined a race?
PERMUTATION
Answer: To find how many ways the  He has 3 different shirts.
1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th places can be
 He has 2 different ties.
awarded to four athletes, you need to
calculate the number of possible ways The total number of combinations is:
to arrange the four athletes in the four
positions. This is a permutation 3×3×2=183 \times 3 \times 2 =
problem, where the order of selection 183×3×2=18
matters. So, the maximum number of days Mr.
The number of permutations of nnn Bean can go without repeating his
objects is given by n!n!n! (n factorial), outfit is 18 days.
where:

n!=n×(n−1)×(n−2)×⋯×1n! = n \ 3. How many 3-digit numbers can

times (n-1) \times (n-2) \times \cdots \ be formed from the digits 3, 4, 8,
times 1n!=n×(n−1)×(n−2)×⋯×1 9 if
For four athletes, n=4n = 4n=4, so the a. repetition of digits is not
number of ways to arrange them in allowed.
four positions is:
4!=4×3×2×1=244! = 4 \times 3 \
times 2 \times 1 = 244! b. repetition of digits is not
=4×3×2×1=24 allowed, and the number is
even.
Thus, there are 24 ways to award the
1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th places to the 4. From 4 automotive mechanics and 2
four athletes. civil engineers, a committee of 3 will
be organized. How many committees
can be organized consisting of 2 auto
2. Mr. Bean has 3 different pairs of mechanics and 1 civil engineer?
trousers, 3 different shirts and 2 5. Top 5 ladies will be selected from 12
different ties. He chooses a pair of candidates for Miss Iligan City. How
trousers, a shirt and a tie to wear many ways can this selection be made
every day. Find the maximum assuming that they have distinct
number of days he does not need personalities?
to repeat his clothing?
6. How many different license plates
Answer: To find the maximum are possible consisting of three letters
number of days Mr. Bean can go followed by three digits?
without repeating his clothing
combination, you multiply the number
of options for each item of clothing ASSIGNING PROBABILITIES
together, since each combination
consists of a pair of trousers, a shirt,
and a tie.
Example 10. CLASSICAL METHOD
 He has 3 different pairs of Consider the experiment of tossing a
trousers. fair coin. The sample space is S = {H,
T}. The two experimental outcomes What is the probability that no
are equally likely. Hence, P(H) = 1/2 patient is waiting for service?
and P(T) = ½
Example 11. Consider the
experiment of tossing coin three
times. What is the probbility of getting SOME PROBABILITY EVENTS
two heads? (Examples)
When tossing a coin three times, each A study conducted by the personnel
toss has two possible outcomes: heads manager of a major computer
(H) or tails (T). So, the total number of software company showed that 30%
possible outcomes is: of the employees who left the firm
within two years did so primarily
2×2×2=82 \times 2 \times 2 =
because they were dissatisfied with
82×2×2=8
their salary, 20% left because they
We want to find the probability of were dissatisfied with their work
getting exactly two heads. The assignments, and 12% of the former
favorable outcomes are those with employees indicated dissatisfaction
exactly two heads: with both their salary and their work
assignments. Let S = the event that
 HHT
the employee leaves because of
 HTH salary W=the event that the
employee leaves because of work
 THH assignment
So, there are 3 favorable outcomes. a) What is the probability that an
The probability of getting exactly two employee who leaves within two years
heads is: does so either because of
dissatisfaction with salary or
P(Two heads)=38P(\text{Two heads}) dissatisfaction with the work
= \frac{3}{8}P(Two heads)=83 assignment?
Example 12. RELATIVE FREQUENCY Answer:
Consider a study of waiting times in This is the probability of
the X-ray department for a local the union of events SSS
hospital. A clerk recorded the number and WWW, denoted by
of patients waiting for service at 9:00 P(S∪W)P(S \cup
a.m. on 20 successive days and W)P(S∪W). Using the
obtained the following results. formula for the union of
two events:
Number of Number of Days
waiting P(S∪W)=P(S)+P(W)
0 2 −P(S∩W)P(S \cup W) =
1 5 P(S) + P(W) - P(S \cap
2 6
W)P(S∪W)=P(S)+P(W)
3 4
−P(S∩W)
4 3
 Substituting the given dissatisfaction with salary or work
probabilities: assignment is [Link] or 38%.

P(S∪W)=0.30+0.20−0.12 (b) The probability that an employee

=0.38P(S \cup W) = 0.30 leaves neither because of
+ 0.20 - 0.12 = dissatisfaction with salary nor
0.38P(S∪W)=0.30+0.20− dissatisfaction with the work
0.12=0.38 assignment
This is the complement of the event
that an employee leaves because of
b) What is the probability that an dissatisfaction with salary or work
employee who leaves within two years assignment. The probability of the
does so neither because of complement of S∪WS \cup WS∪W is:
dissatisfaction with salary nor
dissatisfaction with the work P(neither S nor W)=1−P(S∪W)P(\
assignment? text{neither } S \text{ nor } W) = 1 -
P(S \cup
Answers: We are given the following
W)P(neither S nor W)=1−P(S∪W)
information:
Substituting the value from part (a):
 P(S)=0.30P(S) = 0.30P(S)=0.30,
the probability that an P(neither S nor W)=1−0.38=0.62P(\
employee leaves because of text{neither } S \text{ nor } W) = 1 -
dissatisfaction with their salary. 0.38 =
0.62P(neither S nor W)=1−0.38=0.62
 P(W)=0.20P(W) =
0.20P(W)=0.20, the probability So, the probability that an employee
that an employee leaves leaves neither because of
because of dissatisfaction with dissatisfaction with salary nor
their work assignments. dissatisfaction with the work
assignment is [Link] or 62%.
 P(S∩W)=0.12P(S \cap W) =
0.12P(S∩W)=0.12, the CONITIONAL PROBABILITY
probability that an employee
leaves because of Example 13: Example 13. Consider
dissatisfaction with both salary the situation of the promotion status
and work assignments. of male and female officers of a major
metropolitan police force in the
We need to find the following eastern United States. The police force
probabilities: consists of 1200 officers, 960 men and
240 women. Over the past two years,
(a) The probability that an employee
324 officers on the police force
leaves either because of
received promotions. The specific
dissatisfaction with salary or
breakdown of promotions for male and
dissatisfaction with the work
female officers is shown in the table
assignment
below. Men Women Total Promoted
So, the probability that an employee 200 60 260 Not Promoted 760 180 940
leaves either because of Total 960 240 1200 After reviewing the
promotion record, a committee of
female officers raised a discrimination 1. What is the probability that a
case on the basis that 200 male randomly selected officer is promoted
officers had received promotions but given that the officer is a man?
only 60 female officers had received
This is the conditional probability of
promotions. Is the discrimination case
being promoted given that the officer
justified? Let M = event an officer is a
man W = event an officer is a woman is a man, denoted by P(P∣M)P(P \mid
P = event an officer is promoted P ′ = M)P(P∣M). The formula for conditional
event an officer is not promoted 1. probability is:
What is the probability that a P(P∣M)=P(P∩M)P(M)P(P \mid M) = \
randomly selected officer is promoted frac{P(P \cap M)}
given that the officer is a man? 2. {P(M)}P(P∣M)=P(M)P(P∩M)
What is the probability that a
randomly selected officer is promoted Where:
given that the officer is a woman
 P(P∩M)P(P \cap M)P(P∩M) is the
Answer: probability that an officer is
both promoted and a man.
Let’s solve this problem step by step
using conditional probability formulas.  P(M)P(M)P(M) is the probability
that an officer is a man.
Given Data:
Now, let’s calculate:
 Total number of officers = 1200
 P(P∩M)=200 1200P(P \cap M)
 Number of male officers = 960 = \frac{200}
 Number of female officers = {1200}P(P∩M)=1200200, since
240 200 men were promoted out of
1200 officers.
 Number of promoted officers =
260 (200 men + 60 women)  P(M)=9601200P(M) = \
frac{960}
 Number of non-promoted {1200}P(M)=1200960, since
officers = 940 (760 men + 180 960 officers are men out of
women) 1200 officers.
Definitions of Events: Substitute these values into the
 MMM: The event that an officer formula:
is a man P(P∣M)=20012009601200=200960=52
 WWW: The event that an officer 4≈0.2083P(P \mid M) = \frac{\
is a woman frac{200}{1200}}{\frac{960}
{1200}} = \frac{200}{960} = \
 PPP: The event that an officer is frac{5}{24} \approx
promoted 0.2083P(P∣M)=12009601200200
=960200=245≈0.2083
 P′P'P′: The event that an officer
is not promoted Thus, the probability that a randomly
selected officer is promoted given that
the officer is a man is approximately  The probability that a woman is
0.2083 (or 20.83%). promoted is 25%.
2. What is the probability that a Based on these probabilities, the
randomly selected officer is promoted discrimination case based on
given that the officer is a woman? promotion rates might not be justified,
since a higher proportion of women
This is the conditional probability of
(25%) are being promoted compared
being promoted given that the officer
to men (20.83%). However, a more
is a woman, denoted by P(P∣W)P(P \ detailed analysis would be needed to
mid W)P(P∣W). Using the same formula confirm if there are other contributing
for conditional probability: factors.
P(P∣W)=P(P∩W)P(W)P(P \mid W) = \
frac{P(P \cap W)}
{P(W)}P(P∣W)=P(W)P(P∩W)
Where:
 P(P∩W)=601200P(P \cap W) = \
frac{60}
{1200}P(P∩W)=120060, since
60 women were promoted out
of 1200 officers.
 P(W)=2401200P(W) = \
frac{240}
{1200}P(W)=1200240, since
240 officers are women out of
1200 officers.
Substitute these values into the
formula:

P(P∣W)=6012002401200=60240=14=
0.25P(P \mid W) = \frac{\frac{60}
{1200}}{\frac{240}{1200}} = \
frac{60}{240} = \frac{1}{4} =
0.25P(P∣W)=1200240120060=24060
=41=0.25
Thus, the probability that a randomly
selected officer is promoted given that
the officer is a woman is 0.25 (or
25%).
Conclusion:
 The probability that a man is
promoted is approximately
20.83%.