TOPIC 1: PROBABILITY

PART 1
I N T R O D U C T I ON
EXPERIMENTS
OUTCOMES
SAMPLE SPACE
EVENTS

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What is the probability
that you will get an A
for STA400?
 What is the probability that I will
choose a red marble?
 In this bag of marbles, there are:
3 red marbles
 2 white marbles

 1 purple marble

 4 green marbles
EXPERIMENT, OUTCOMES, SAMPLE SPACE
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Definition
An experiment is a process that, when performed, results in one and
only one of many observations. These observations are called that
outcomes of the experiment. The collection of all outcomes for an
experiment is called a sample space.
EXAMPLE 1:
Experiment
➢ Tossing a fair coin

Outcomes
➢ A Head and Tail

Sample Space (S)

➢ S = {Head, Tail}

(Each outcome in a sample space is called an element or a member of the sample space,
or simply a sample point. If sample space has a finite number of elements, we may list
the elements in the usual set notation.)

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 Table 1.1: Examples of Experiments, Outcomes, and
Sample Spaces
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Experiment Outcomes Sample Space

Toss a coin once Head, Tail S = {Head, Tail}
Roll a die once 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Toss a coin twice HH, HT, TH, TT S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
Play a game Win, Lose S = {Win, Lose}
Take a test Pass, Fail S = {Pass, Fail}
Select a student Male, Female S = {Male, Female}

The sample space for an experiment can also be illustrated by drawing either a
Venn diagram or a tree diagram. Venn and tree diagrams help us understand
probability concepts by presenting them visually.

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 Venn and Tree Diagrams
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 A Venn diagram is a picture that depicts all the possible outcomes for
an experiment.
 In a tree diagram, each outcome is represented by a branch of the tree.
 Recall Example 1: Tossing a fair coin.
Outcomes

Head H
S

H T
Tail T

(b)
(a)

Figure 1: (a) Venn Diagram and (b) tree diagram for one toss of a coin.

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 Exercise 1
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a. Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for the experiment of tossing a coin
twice.
b. An experiment consists of flipping a coin and then flipping it a
second time if a head occurs. If a tail occurs on the first flip, then a
die is tossed once. List the elements of the sample space providing
the most information by constructing a tree diagram.
(Note: The various paths along the branches of the tree give the distinct
sample points.)
c. Suppose that three items are selected at random from a
manufacturing process. Each item is inspected and classified
defective, D, or nondefective, N. List the elements of the sample
space via a tree diagram.

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 Venn diagram for Exercise 1a
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S
HH HT

TH
TT

(a)

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 Tree diagram for Exercise 1a
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Second Final
First toss
toss outcomes

HH
H

H
T HT
H TH
T

T TT
(b)

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 Tree diagram for Exercise 1b
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 Tree diagram for Exercise 1c
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 EVENTS
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Definition: An event is the subset of a sample space.

➢ An event that has only one sample point is a simple event.

➢ If it has more than one sample point, it is known as a compound event.
➢ An event that has no sample points is often called a null set, denoted as Ø.

Recall earlier Example:

 Experiment: Toss a fair coin
 Outcomes: Head , Tail
 Sample space: S = {Head, Tail}
 Event: Choose head to be an event
A = {Head}

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 Exercise 2
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The experiment is to roll a fair die.

 The sample space, S = { }

Event: Some events from the experiment

 A = the number 4 was observed. (Note: a simple event)
A={ }
 B = an odd number was observed. (Note: A compound event)
B={ }
 C = a number less than 3 was observed.
C={ }

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 Definitions
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 In many problems of probability we are interested in

events that are actually combinations of two or more
events, formed by taking unions, intersections,
complements and mutually exclusive.

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 UNION
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Given A and B two events in a sample space S.

Definition

A B

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 INTERSECTION
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Definition

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 COMPLEMENT
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Definition

Other symbols:
A : read as “A bar”
or
Ac : “A complement”

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 MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
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Definition

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 Exercise 3a
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Suppose S = {E1, E2,…, E6}. Let A = {E1, E3, E5} and

B = {E1, E2, E3}.

Find:
i. A  B =
ii. A  B =
iii. A =
iv. B =
v. Are A and B mutually exclusive?

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The relationship between events and the corresponding sample space can
be illustrated graphically by means of Venn diagrams.
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Exercise 3b
Referring to Figure 2:
i. A  B = regions 1 and 2
ii. BC=
iii. A  C =
iv. B  A=
v. A  B  C =
vi. (A  B) C=

Figure 2 Events represented by

various regions

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 Example 4
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Consider an experiment of throwing a fair die.

A is the event of getting even numbers.
B is the event ‘the numbers obtained is greater than 3’.
C is the event of getting the prime numbers.

a) Draw the Venn diagram to illustrate the above

events.
b) Find:
i) A  B ii) A  C iii) B’  C
c) Which events are mutually exclusive?
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 Useful Results
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1. A=
2. A=A
3. A  A = 
4. A  A = S
5. S = 
6.  = S
7. (A) = A
8. (A  B)= A  B
9. (A  B) = A  B

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