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Margin of Error in Inferential Statistics

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308 views5 pages

Margin of Error in Inferential Statistics

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aabhargava098
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  • Introductory Concepts
  • Multiple Choice Questions
  • Assertion-Reason Questions
  • Case Study Questions

FAHAHEEL AL-WATANIEH INDIAN PRIVATE SCHOOL

AHMADI-KUWAIT
APPLIED MATHEMATICS ASSIGNMENT (2024-25)
CLASS-XII
INFERENTIAL STATISTICS

Interval estimation of population mean

𝜇 = 𝑥̅ ± margin of error ,

where 𝑥̅ = sample mean and 𝜇 = population mean.

Calculation of margin of error ( 𝜎 𝑘𝑛𝑜𝑤𝑛)

The formula of calculating the margin of error is

Margin of error = 𝑍𝛼 /2 . 𝜎/ √𝑛 .

Where ( 1- 𝛼 ) is called confidence coefficient and 𝑍𝛼 /2 is the Z value providing an area of 𝛼/ 2 in the
upper tail of the standard normal probability distribution.

Interval estimation of population proportion

The interval estimation of population proportion is given by the following formula:

P = 𝑝̅ ± margin of error,

where 𝑝̅ = sample proportion and p = population proportion .

Margin of error = 𝑍𝛼 /2 √ 𝑝̅(1−𝑝̅) 𝑛

Hypothesis test may take three forms

HO : 𝜇 ≥ 𝜇0 HO :𝜇 ≤ 𝜇0 HO: 𝜇 = 𝜇0
H1 : 𝜇 < 𝜇0 H1:𝜇 > 𝜇0 H1 : 𝜇 ≠ 𝜇0

The first two forms are one- tailed test and third forms is called two –tailed test. 𝜇0 denote the
hypothesized value of population mean 𝜇.

sample mean

𝑥̅=∑ 𝑥𝑖 /𝑛 ,

Sample standard deviation

s =√(∑(𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥) 2 /(𝑛 − 1)
MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTIONS

1. An observed set of population that has been selected for analysis is called

( a) a sample (b) a process ( c) a forecast ( d ) a parameter

2. A Specific characteristic of a population is known as a

( a) a sample ( b) parameter ( c ) statistic ( d) mean

3. A specific characteristic of a sample is known as a

( a ) population ( b ) parameter ( c ) statistic ( d ) mean

4. Inferential statistics is a process that involves all the following except


( a ) estimating a parameter ( b ) estimating a statistic ( c ) test a hypothesis ( d ) analysis
relationships.
5. Which of the following statement are true? I: The mean of the population is denoted by𝑥̅. II:
The population mean is a statistic.
( a ) I only ( b) II only ( c ) both I and II ( d ) none.
6. The following data are from a simple random sample : 5,8,10,7,10,4. The point estimate of the
population is
(a)7(b)6(c)8(d)9
7. A population consists of four observations 1,3,5,7. What is the variance?
( a ) 2 ( b) 4 ( c ) 5 ( d ) 6
8. A simple random sample consists of four observations 1,3,5,[Link] is the point estimate of
population standard deviation?
( a ) 2.3 ( b ) 2.58 ( c ) 2.87 ( d) 3.1
9. A sample of 50 bulbs is taken at random. Out of 50 we found 15 bulbs are Bajaj, 17 are of
Surya and 18 are of Crompton. What is the point estimate of population proportion of Surya?
( a ) 0.3 ( b ) 0.34 ( c ) 0.36 ( d ) 0.4
10. What does it mean that you calculate a 95 %confidence interval ?
( a )The process you used will capture the true parameter 95 % of the time in long run.
( b ) you can be 95% confident that your interval will include the population parameter
( c ) you can be 5% confident that your interval will not include the population parameter
( d ) all the above statements are true.
11. A statement made about a population parameter for testing purpose is called 163
( a ) statistic ( b) parameter ( c ) hypothesis ( d ) level of significance
12. The assumed hypothesis which is tested for rejection considering it to true is called
(a)Null hypothesis ( b)alternative hypothesis (c )simple hypothesis ( d )true hypothesis.
13. In testing the statistical hypothesis, which of the following statement is false ?
( a )The critical region is the values of the test statistic for which we reject the null hypothesis. (
b) The level of significance is the probability of Type – I error.
( c ) In testing HO:𝜇 = 𝜇° ,H a:𝜇 ≠ 𝜇° the critical region is two sided .
( d ) The p – value measures the probability that the null hypothesis is true.
14. If ∝ = probability of type –I error , then 1-∝ is
( a ) Probability of rejecting H o when H O is true.
( b )Probability of not rejecting HO when HO is true.
( c) Probability of not rejecting HO when H a is true.
( d ) Probability of rejecting HO when Ha is true.
15. Which of the following is an assumption underlying the use of the t-distribution?
( a ) The variance of the population is known
( b ) The sample size are drawn from a normally distributed Population
( c )Sample standard deviation is an unbiased estimate of the population variance
( d ) All the above.

Assertion – Reason Type Questions

In the following questions, a statement of assertion (A) is followed by a statement of Reason (R). Choose the
correct answer out of the following choices.
(a) Both A and R are true and R is the correct explanation of A.
(b) Both A and R are true and R is the not the correct explanation of A.
(c) A is true but R is false.
(d) A is false but R is true.

16. Assertion ( A ): A simple random sample consists of five observation 2,4,6,8,10. The point
estimate of population standard deviation is √10 .
Reason ( R): Sample standard deviation of n observations, S =√∑ (𝑥𝑖−𝑥) ̅2 𝑛 .

17. In a survey question for a sample of 200 individuals, 80 persons gave response ‘yes’, 100 gave
response ‘no’ and 20 gave no response.
Assertion ( A ): The point estimate of the proportion in the population who respond ‘yes’ is 0.4
Reason ( R): The point estimate of the proportion in the population who respond ‘No’ is 0.6

ANSWERS

1.( a) 2.( b) 3. ( c) 4. ( b) 5.(d) 6. (d ) 7. (c ) 8. ( b) 9.( b) 10.( d)

11. (c) 12. (a) 13. (d) 14. ( b) 15. ( b) 16. (c) 17.(c)

18. A machine produces washers of thickness 0.50 mm. To determine whether the machine is in
proper working order, a sample of 10 washers is chosen for which the mean thickness is 0.53
mm and the standard deviation is o.03 mm. Test the hypothesis at 5% level of significance that
the machine is working in proper order.
(Ans: t = 3 Since t(3) > t0.025(2.262), the null hypothesis H0 can be rejected. Hence we
conclude that machine is not working properly.)

19. A random sample of 17 values from a normal population has a mean of 105 cm and the sum of
the squares of deviations from this mean is 1225 cm2 . Is this assumption of a mean of 110 cm
for the normal population reasonable? Test under 5% level of significance.
(Given t16(0.05) = 2.12 )
(Ans : – 2.3561, the null hypothesis H0 can be rejected. We may conclude that the assumption
that the mean of the population is 110 cm is not valid.)
20. A group of 5 patients treated with medicine P and second group of 7 patients treated with
medicine Q. The sample means were found to be 8 and 9 respectively and the sample standard
deviation `S` is 3.71. Comment on the rejection of the hypothesis with significance level 5%.
(Given t10(0.05) = 2.23)
(Ans : t=-0.46, Since │t│ < t10(0.05), the null hypothesis H0 is accepted at 5% level of
significance.)
21. A random sample of 17 values from a normal population has a mean of 105 cm and the sum of
the squares of deviations from this mean is 1225 cm2 . Is this assumption of a mean of 110 cm
for the normal population reasonable? Test under 5% level of significance. (Given t16(0.05) =
2.12 )
(Ans: t = – 2.3561, Since │t│ > t16(0.05), the null hypothesis H0 can be rejected. We may
conclude that the assumption that the mean of the population is 110 cm is not valid.)

22. The average height of a random sample of 400 adult males of a city is 175 cm. It is known that
population standard deviation is 40. Determine the 90% confidence interval for the population
mean. (Z0.05 = 1.645)
Solution:
Given: n= 400, 𝑥̅=175, = 40
1− = 0.90
 = 0.1
 = /2=0.05
  Z / 2 = Z0.05 =1.645
Margin of error = 𝑍𝛼 /2 . 𝜎 /√𝑛 .
=1.645x 40 /√400
= 3.29
Confidence interval is ( 175 – 3.29 , 175 + 3.29 )= (171.71, 178.29)
23. The average height of a random sample of 400 adult males of a city is 175 cm. It is known that
population standard deviation is 40. Determine the 90% confidence interval for the population
mean. (Z0.05 = 1.645)
(Ans: Margin of error = 3.29, Confidence interval is(171.71, 178.29))
24. A sample of 100 Maruti authorized service centres showed 13 are in Delhi, 18 in Mumbai, 17 in
Chennai and 15 in Kolkata. Develop an estimate of the proportion of Maruti service centres
that are not in these four cities.

Solution:
Number of Maruti service centres that are not in these four cities
= 100 – ( 13 + 18 + 17 + 15 )
= 100 – 63
= 37
The point estimate of proportion of Maruti service centres that are not in these fourcities is
𝑝̅ =37/100 =0.37
CASE STUDY QUESTIONS WITH SOLUTION

25. A population consists of 5 units 3,7,6,8,1.


(i) Find the Point estimate for population mean
(ii) Find the Point estimate for population variance
(iii) Find the Point estimate for population standard deviation
(iv) Find the Standard error of the sample mean

Solution:

(i) 𝑥̅= 3+7+6+8+1 5 = 5 ∴ point estimate of population mean is (𝑥̅), 𝑖.𝑒. ,5.
(ii) 𝑆 2 = ∑ (𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥̅) 2 / 𝑛−1
= [4 + 4 + 1 + 9 + 16] /(5-1) = 34/ 4 = 8.5
(iii) Point estimate for population standard deviation is √8.5 = 2.91
(iv) Standard Error = 𝜎 /√𝑛 = 2.91/ √5 = 2.91 /2.23 = 1.30.

Common questions

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Confidence intervals provide a range within which the true population parameter is expected to fall, with a certain level of confidence. For example, a 95% confidence interval means that if the same population is sampled multiple times, the interval will include the true parameter 95% of the time. This helps in estimating the reliability of the statistical results .

The use of the t-distribution assumes that the sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. Additionally, it is used when the population variance is unknown and the sample standard deviation provides an unbiased estimate of the population variance. Sample size does not need to be large, but normally distributed population is a key assumption .

The point estimate of a population proportion is calculated using the sample proportion, denoted as p̅. It is calculated as the number of successes in the sample divided by the total sample size, which provides an estimate of the true population proportion. This point estimate is fundamental for constructing confidence intervals for the proportion and conducting hypothesis tests related to population proportions .

In the context of comparing two medicines, the null hypothesis is rejected when the absolute value of the test statistic is greater than the critical value at the designated significance level. For example, if the calculated t-value is less than the critical value t10(0.05) = 2.23, as in the comparison of medicines P and Q, where │t│ < t10(0.05), the null hypothesis is not rejected, indicating no significant difference between the treatments at the 5% level .

The margin of error for estimating a population mean is calculated using the formula: Margin of Error = Zα/2 * σ / √n. Here, Zα/2 is the Z value corresponding to the desired level of confidence, σ is the population standard deviation, and n is the sample size .

Rejecting the null hypothesis in this context implies that there is significant evidence to conclude that the machine is not operating properly. When the test statistic t = 3 is greater than the critical value t0.025(2.262), the null hypothesis can be rejected at the 5% significance level, indicating that the machine's mean washer thickness is not as specified (e.g., 0.50 mm).

The assertion-reason format requires students to evaluate both statements and the logical connection between them. This type of questioning assesses not only factual knowledge but also the student's ability to critically analyze whether the reason provided adequately supports the assertion, thus testing deeper understanding of inferential statistics concepts beyond rote memorization .

The document mentions three forms of hypothesis tests: H0: μ ≥ μ0 against H1: μ < μ0, H0: μ ≤ μ0 against H1: μ > μ0, and H0: μ = μ0 against H1: μ ≠ μ0. A two-tailed test is used when the hypothesis is of the form H0: μ = μ0, as it tests for the possibility of the sample mean being significantly different from the hypothesized population mean in either direction .

The critical region is the range of values for the test statistic that leads to the rejection of the null hypothesis. The significance level, often denoted by α, represents the probability of committing a Type I error, which is the incorrect rejection of a true null hypothesis. Therefore, the critical region is determined by this significance level, helping to control the Type I error rate .

For the sample of adult male heights with a mean of 175 cm, a sample size of 400, and a population standard deviation of 40, the 90% confidence interval is calculated using the margin of error formula. The margin of error is Zα/2 * σ / √n, with Z0.05 = 1.645 for a 90% confidence level, thus yielding a margin of error of 3.29. The confidence interval is therefore (171.71, 178.29), reflecting the range within which the true population mean is likely to fall with 90% confidence .

FAHAHEEL AL-WATANIEH INDIAN PRIVATE SCHOOL
MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTIONS 
 
1. An observed set of population that has been selected for analysis is called 
              (
( b )Probability of not rejecting HO when HO is true.  
( c) Probability of not rejecting HO when H a is true.  
( d ) Probab
(Ans : – 2.3561, the null hypothesis H0 can be rejected. We may conclude that the assumption 
that the mean of the population
CASE STUDY QUESTIONS WITH SOLUTION 
 
25. A population consists of 5 units 3,7,6,8,1.  
(i) 
Find the Point estimate for popu

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