Arab Spring: Its Causes and Consequences

It was Marc Lynch, an American political scientist, who used this term in his article written

in “Foreign Policy” journal. Arab Spring was a movement of violent and violence less

protests and civil wars started from Tunis on December 18, 2010 and extended all over the

Arab world. It was against the long-term despotic rules of the authoritarian rulers, continuous

state of emergency in which Police and the Interior Ministry had excessive powers to crush

the people, unemployment, poverty, inflation, etc. Social media was used in all countries

where there these protests took place to get the attention of world community. All the regimes

which were affected by the Arab Spring used their powers vehemently to crush the

demonstrators and consequently the peaceful protesters also became violent. The common

slogan of the protesters throughout Arab Spring was “the people want to bring down the

regime”.

Causes of the Arab Spring:

A. Economic causes: -It may be classified into many subgroups as following

1. Role of global crisis: - The economic condition of the Middle Eastern and North African

countries is heterogeneous. They are different in their progressive level and economic

structure. The GDP level of oil exporting states is far high from the other countries of the

region. The income of some countries like that of Libya and Algeria is based upon their oil

and gas export while some others’ like Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia on manufacturing and

tourism.

North African states of the region have brought some reforms in their economies with

the support of IMF and WB since 1990s. The public sectors have been privatized in these

states and governmental interference has gradually been decreased in the financial sectors.

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The downfall in oil prices during 2008-9 directly affected the oil exporting as well as other

nations badly. Europe and America, which used to import manufactured goods from this

region, also,

decreased their demand during the crisis.

2. Role of Food crisis: The role of food crisis and its high prices in political unrest is

historically accepted especially in poor countries as they have to rely upon some other

countries for food. During 2007-8 the Arab countries like that of Yemen, Morocco, Tunis

and Egypt had to suffer at the hands of public protests due to price increase in food

grains. About two years prior to the Arab Spring the inflation rate reached from 25 to 30

percent in the affected countries. The oil producing countries were not the much affected

of the high inflation rate. It was the North African region which was deadly affected by

the high prices because there remains an affiliation between food prices and food

insurrections. This all leads to the political unrest in the region.

3. Role of Unemployment: - Decrease in the manufacturing of different goods during 2010

increased the unemployment in Morocco, Egypt, and Tunis. According to the circumstances

of the North African region, its unemployment ratio was not much deteriorating as it was

only about 10 percent. Unemployment among the youth, especially females, was one of the

most important causes behind the Arab Spring. Throughout the world, there is the lowest

female labor force contribution in the Arab countries. At the eve of the Arab Spring, one out

of four Egyptians and Tunisians young was out of employment. Along with the decrease in

production, the demographic boom was also responsible for increasing unemployment. This

affected badly the North African countries as average age of the people decreased there. Due

to the unemployment among the youth, more than 1/3 of the labor forces consist of young

people.

B. Social causes: -
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 1. The youth bulge, education and democracy: It is the fact that the Middle Eastern and

North African states are heterogeneous, both economically and politically, but there are some

common attributes among them. Demographically the whole region has about 30 percent

population of 15 to 29 years therefore the unemployment rate among the youth is high there.

The region progressed well in education levels during the last three decades. This socio-

economic situation played an important role in social change especially towards

democratization.

The countries which had young population, had to suffer from civil clashes three

times more than the others which had mature population during 1990s. South Africa, Costa

Rica and Jamaica developed democracies under the youth bulge. Education is another

important factor behind social development and democratic procedure. Education along with

economic development has got the inner position in the modernization theory of

democratization. The increase in educational level boosts the democratic process. The

achievement levels of education have improved in the Middle Eastern and North African

states during the last three decades.

2. Political freedoms and economic inequalities: -The popular Arab riots can be described

with a political economy point of view by discussing the social desire of the people for

additional political and civil rights. People and especially youth of the region requested the

respective governments to advance their social and economic circumstances with the

resources of education and employment but it was not listen by the governments and

consequently it led them towards the uprisings.

The MENA (Middle East and North African) States had adopted the policy of

privatization of public sectors, trade liberalization and deregulation to apply structural

adjustment procedure. While the structural reforms have increased the economic

development of the South African states but the middle classes and majority of youth was not

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 included. It also did not support the political reforms for ensuring the civil rights of the

commons. It just fortified the current authoritarian governments while blocking the way of

democracy. The fundamental human rights like that of right to vote, liberty, expression and

association have been discouraged through restrictions of continuous emergencies as Tunisia

and other countries declared.

The rulers of the North African states always enjoyed great facilities. Mubarak in Egypt,

Gaddafi in Libya, and Ben Ali family in Tunisia are the examples. Armies and the religious

leaders of these states exercised vast authority. Power and wealth of these states was

concentrated in a few hands. Lack of fairness and continuation of awkward and unproductive

regulation schemes were encouragements for corruption in market for the approval of

exploitation of natural possessions.

3. The role of social media: -During the protests of Arab Spring the governments of respective

states tried to stop the riots by promising protesters to redistribution of possessions but failed.

It occurred in Tunis, Libya and Egypt.

Spreading of information plays a vital role in riots therefore the undemocratic

governments of the current age censor the information. The role of internet and social media,

such as Facebook and twitter played in Arab Spring, can be discussed with ‘information

cascade’ model. Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabia were the important television channels that were

responsible for both spreading the information among insurgents and the transmission of

news throughout the world. Mass media declared the Arab Spring as “social network

revolutions”.

4. Discrimination against Ethnic and Religious Minorities: -Prejudice against the ethnic and

religious minorities is uncontrolled in the region and it was one of the most important causes

behind the Arab Spring.

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 Primarily the Middle East region consists of Shia and Sunni Muslims

overwhelmingly but some other ancient religions and sects also exist. Alawite in Syria, Druze

in Lebanon, Baha’is in Iran and Copts in Egypt are among the ancient ethnic sects and

religions. Moreover, Arabs are the major ethnic group of the Middle East while Turkmens,

Armenians, Assyrians and Kurds are in minority. Ethnic minorities are persecuted in different

times in different countries as Kurds and Turkmens by Saddam Hussein in Iraq, sectarian

conflicts of Shia and Sunni in Iran, Syria and Iraq in the 21st century.

Leaders of some states of Middle East belong to the minority religious sect due to

which they are disliked among the public. The rulers of Syria and Iraq are the examples.

Bashar Al-Assad, the Syrian President, belongs to Alawite sect to which other Muslims

consider un-Islamic.

C. Immediate reason: -The death of Mohamed Bouazizi provided the sudden base to the

inhabitants of a lot of Arab states to go against the despotic rulers. Mohamed Bouazizi

was a street hawker of Tunis. He committed the self-immolation as a protest on

December 17, 2010 when his goods were taken away and he was humiliated at the hands

of a female municipal officer. His suicide became a means for the occurrence of Tunisian

Revolution and widespread Arab Spring. People started protests and riots against the

existing issues in the region. The Tunisians dethroned the long-term President Zane El

Abidine Ben Ali on January 14, 2011 who ruled for 23 years.

Consequences; -

A. Removal of the Authoritarian Rulers from Tunis, Libya, and Egypt: - The first and

foremost consequence of the Arab Spring was the removal of these long-term autocrats. Most

of the Middle Eastern countries were being ruled by the authoritarian rulers.

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 Zein El Abidine Ben Ali, the President of Tunis, was the first ruler in Middle East

who stepped down under the pressure of Arab Spring. He remained for about 23 years in

power but had to resign on January 14, 2011 as protests over economic crises increased

against him. A state of emergency was declared in Tunis and then Prime Minister

Mohammed Ghannouchi took over the charge as acting President. After Tunis, Libya was the

next state to become the victim of Arab Spring. Protests rose against the long term elected-

cum autocratic President Muammar al-Qaddafi. As the protests spread in Libya, he tried to

show his autocratic power but the uprisings were spread throughout the country. His regular

military and mercenaries tried to cover the situation but failed. NATO also attacked the

country under the label of saving the lives of civilians and those who were fighting for

democracy against the autocratic ruler. Qaddafi met his disgraceful and horrible end when

NTC and NATO forces found him injured and hiding in a compound on October 20, 2011

and he died the same day.

The movement which was started from Tunis reached Egypt after Libya. 25 th

January, the National Police Day in Egypt, a number of Egyptians gathered to turn the day

into protest one. These peaceful people were directed by the unending corruption, injustice

prevailing throughout country, deteriorated economic conditions, continuous state of

emergency, excessive emergency powers of the Home Ministry and Police and the

continuous authoritarian rule of President Hosni Mubarak from last thirty years. The protest

of a small group of demonstrators grew into a national country wide movement. Mubarak’s

attempts to make the protesters agree by appointing Omer Suleiman as his vice President on

29th January, replacing the old cabinet. with new one on 31st January, and promising to not

to take part in the next Presidential election along with his son Gamal, failed. Massive

demonstrations of February 11 forced Mubarak to resign. The Supreme Council of Armed

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Forces led by Tantawi took over the powers and dissolved the legislature and suspended the

constitution later.

B. Grant of Political and Social Rights: - Keeping in view the fate of Bin Ali, Qadhafi, and

Hosni Mubarak, the rulers of Oman, Saudi Arabia, Morocco and Bahrain granted social

and economic rights to their respective citizens. It helped them to avoid their inhabitants

to follow the footsteps of the citizens of Tunis, Libya, and Egypt.

C. Development of Public Political Sphere: - Arab Spring marked the formation of a

public political sphere where common people could discuss politics at public places and

discuss their expected future and effort to attain democratic transition in Arab world. One of

the major triumphs of the Arab Spring was the birth of the Arab citizen.

D. Impacts on the surrounding states: - When the Egyptian long-term authoritarian

President Hosni Mubarak was compelled to vacant the post by the occupants of Tahrir

Square, the leaders of Middle Eastern states had to adopt the reactive or proactive

approaches.

Civil wars started in Yemen, Libya and Syria which shaped the future incidents. This

was the reactive approach. Saudi Arabia and Moroccan leaders adopted the proactive

approach. Saudi Shah, King Abdullah, announced a financial package of $US36 billion to

provide relief to Saudi families to keep them away to become the part of ongoing Arab social

turmoil. It was greeted by local media and other sectors. Moroccan King Mohamed VI also

adopted the proactive approach by introducing the institutional reforms to adopt the new

constitution to structure the upcoming political and social atmosphere. This led the country

towards the voting for new constitution and parliamentary election.

[Link] on Arab League and GCC: -The Arab League was also the victim of internal

clashes and it played an important role in Arab Spring. Some members of the Arab League

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posed a dual standard as they were supporting the demonstrators against rulers of some states

while on the same time, they were supporting the rulers of some states against the protesters.

Gulf Cooperation Council also played its role in Arab upheavals by sending its forces to save

Yemeni President, Ali Abdullah Saleh, and then agreed the both parties to sign the

agreement. Due to the Arab Spring, some reforms were seen within the GCC.

F. International Reactions: -The Arab Spring was deliberated as a good attempt towards

democracy by the world. When the protests became more organized, peoples from different

countries had to declare it as the real voices for democracy. Different schools of thought gave

their point of views about the change. The major powers also evaluated the situation to get

the advantage for them. China and Russia had a heavy investment in oil rich country Libya

therefore they had their support with Qaddafi. On the other hand, US-led NATO forces

attacked and killed him to get the trust and support of opposition. Syria was the only and last

client of Russia in the region. Russia started to support the Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad to

keep their influence here.