Institute of Basic and
Applied Sciences (BAS)
MTH 211 – Probability and Statistics
Lecture 1
Dr. Ali Kandil
Office: B9-F2-17
[Link]@[Link]
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What are we going to study?
Part I: Probability
- The scientific way to deal with randomness.
- Predict the random future in an event-chance manner.
Communication engineering Robotics
➢ Added noise is unpredictable ➢ Obstacles positions are unpredictable
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What are we going to study?
Part II. Statistics
- Science of data
- Tools to manipulate data
(collect, summarize, display, draw conclusions)
Computer science and engineering Manufacturing engineering
Machine
learning
➢ Computer programs access data and ➢ Production lines should be sampled
use it learn for themselves periodically to ensure quality
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✓ One important way to find the probability of an event
is to collect data. So, probability needs statistics.
✓ Probability is usually used to quantify the error in
estimating a population performance based on a
sample. So, Statistics needs probability.
✓ So, Probability and statistics are fully connected.
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Course content – I. Probability
➢ Basic probability theory
• Chapter 2
➢ Random variables
• Chapter 3, 4
➢ Selected probability distributions
• Chapter 5, 6
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Course content – I. Statistics
➢ Introduction to statistics
• Chapter 1
➢ Random sampling
• Chapter 8
➢ Statistical inference
• Chapter 9, 10
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Grading
➢ Mid-term exam 30% (60 marks)
➢ Class work 30% (60 marks)
➢ Final exam 40% (80 marks)
Classroom code
i5e5zve 7
Random experiment
An experiment
Procedure Observation
Connect a circuit Measure current
Deterministic experiment Random experiment
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Current? Falling time? Which side? Waiting time?
Which side? Which face?
Head or tail; S = {H, T} S = {1, 2, . . ., 6}
Which outlet? Waiting time?
S = {1, 2, . . ., N} S = [0, T]
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Example. An experiment consists of flipping a coin and then flipping it a second
time if a head occurs. If a tail occurs on the first flip, then a die is tossed
once. Find the sample space.
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Example. Suppose that three items are selected at random from a manufacturing
process. Each item is inspected and classified defective, D, or non-
defective, N. Find the sample space.
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Example. If 𝑆 is the set of all points (𝑥 , 𝑦) on the boundary or the interior of a circle
of radius 2 with center at the origin, we write the rule
Example. Given the sample space 𝑆 = {𝑡 | 𝑡 ≥ 0}, where 𝑡 is the life in years of a
certain electronic component, then the event 𝐴 that the component fails
before the end of the fifth year is the subset 𝐴 = {𝑡 | 0 ≤ 𝑡 < 5}.
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Example. Let 𝑅 be the event that a red card is selected from an ordinary deck of 52
playing cards, and let 𝑆 be the entire deck. Then 𝑅′ is the event that the
card selected from the deck is not a red card but a black card.
Example. Consider the sample space
𝑆 = 𝑏𝑜𝑜𝑘, 𝑐𝑒𝑙𝑙 𝑝ℎ𝑜𝑛𝑒, 𝑚𝑝3, 𝑝𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑟, 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑦, 𝑙𝑎𝑝𝑡𝑜𝑝 .
Let 𝐴 = {𝑏𝑜𝑜𝑘, 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑦, 𝑙𝑎𝑝𝑡𝑜𝑝, 𝑝𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑟}. Then the complement of 𝐴
is
𝐴′ = {𝑐𝑒𝑙𝑙 𝑝ℎ𝑜𝑛𝑒, 𝑚𝑝3}.
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Example. Let 𝐸 be the event that a person selected at random in a classroom is
majoring in engineering, and let 𝐹 be the event that the person is
female. Then 𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 is the event of all female engineering students in the
classroom.
Example. Let 𝑉 = {𝑎, 𝑒, 𝑖, 𝑜, 𝑢} and 𝐶 = {𝑙, 𝑟, 𝑠, 𝑡}; then it follows that 𝑉 ∩ 𝐶 = 𝜙.
That is, 𝑉 and 𝐶 have no elements in common and, therefore, cannot
both simultaneously occur.
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Example. Let 𝐴 = {𝑎, 𝑏, 𝑐} and 𝐵 = {𝑏, 𝑐, 𝑑, 𝑒}; then 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = {𝑎, 𝑏, 𝑐, 𝑑, 𝑒}.
Example. If 𝑀 = {𝑥 | 3 < 𝑥 < 9} and 𝑁 = {𝑦 | 5 < 𝑦 < 12}, then
𝑀 ∪ 𝑁 = {𝑧 | 3 < 𝑧 < 12}.
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The relationship between events and the corresponding sample space can be
illustrated graphically by means of Venn diagrams. In a Venn diagram, we let the
sample space be a rectangle and represent events by circles drawn inside the
rectangle. Thus, in the figure, we see that
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Several results that follow from the foregoing definitions, which may easily be
verified by means of Venn diagrams, are as follows:
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Example. How many sample points are there in the sample space when a pair of
dice is thrown once?
Solution. The first die can land face-up in any one of 𝑛1 = 6 ways. For each of
these 6 ways, the second die can also land face-up in 𝑛2 = 6 ways.
Therefore, the pair of dice can land in 𝑛1 𝑛2 = 6 6 = 36 possible
ways.
Example. If a 22-member club needs to elect a chair and a treasurer, how many
different ways can these two be elected?
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Solution. For the chair position, there are 22 total possibilities. For each of those
22 possibilities, there are 21 possibilities to elect the treasurer. Using
the multiplication rule, we obtain 𝑛1 𝑛2 = 22 21 = 462 different
ways.
Example. Sam is going to assemble a computer by himself. He has the choice of
chips from two brands, a hard drive from four, memory from three, and
an accessory bundle from five local stores. How many different ways can
Sam order the parts?
Solution. Since 𝑛1 = 2, 𝑛2 = 4, 𝑛3 = 3, and 𝑛4 = 5, there are
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Example. How many even four-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 0, 1, 2,
5, 6, and 9 if each digit can be used only once?
Solution. Since the number must be even, we have only 𝑛1 = 3 choices for the
units position. However, for a four-digit number the thousands position
cannot be 0. Hence, we consider the units position in two parts, 0 or not
0. If the units position is 0 (i.e., 𝑛1 = 1), we have 𝑛2 = 5 choices for the
thousands position, 𝑛3 = 4 for the hundreds position, and 𝑛4 = 3 for
the tens position. Therefore, in this case we have a total of even four-
digit numbers as
On the other hand, if the units position is not 0 (i.e., 𝑛1 = 2), we have
𝑛2 = 4 choices for the thousands position, 𝑛3 = 4 for the hundreds
position, and 𝑛4 = 3 for the tens position. In this situation, there are a
total of even four-digit numbers as
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Since the above two cases are mutually exclusive, the total number of even four-
digit numbers can be calculated as 60 + 96 = 156.
Example. In one year, three awards (research, teaching, and service) will be given
to a class of 25 graduate students in a statistics department. If each
student can receive at most one award, how many possible selections
are there?
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Solution. The total number of sample points is
Example. In how many ways can 7 graduate students be assigned to 1 triple and 2
double hotel rooms during a conference?
Solution. The total number of possible partitions would be
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= 𝑖𝑛 𝐶𝑟
Example. A young boy asks his father to get 5 Game-Boy cartridges from his
collection of 10 arcade and 5 sports games. How many ways are there
that his father can get 3 arcade and 2 sports games?
Solution. The number of ways of selecting 3 cartridges from 10 is
The number of ways of selecting 2 cartridges from 5 is
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Using the multiplication rule (Rule 2.1) with 𝑛1 = 120 and 𝑛2 = 10, we have
120 10 = 1200 ways.
Example. How many different letter arrangements can be made from the letters in
the word “STATISTICS”?
Solution. Here we have 10 total letters, with 2 letters (S, T) appearing 3 times
each, letter I appearing twice, and letters A and C appearing once each.
Using the same argument in the previous theorems to obtain
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