Calculating Probability

In an experiment, the probability of an event is the possibility of that event occurring.

The probability of any event is a value between (and including) "0" and "1". Follow the

steps below for calculating probability of an event A:

● Step 1: Find the sample space of the experiment and count the elements.

Denote it by n(S).

● Step 2: Find the number of favorable outcomes and denote it by n(A).

● Step 3: To find probability, divide n(A) by n(S). i.e., P(A) = n(A)/n(S).

Here are some examples that well describe the process of finding probability.

Example 1: Find the probability of getting a number less than 5 when a dice is

rolled by using the probability formula.

Solution

To find:

Probability of getting a number less than 5

Given: Sample space, S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}

Therefore, n(S) = 6

Let A be the event of getting a number less than 5. Then A = {1,2,3,4}

So, n(A) = 4

Using the probability equation,

P(A) = (n(A))/(n(s))
p(A) = 4/6

m = 2/3

Answer: The probability of getting a number less than 5 is 2/3.

Example 2: What is the probability of getting a sum of 9 when two dice are

thrown?

Solution:

There is a total of 36 possibilities when we throw two dice.

To get the desired outcome i.e., 9, we can have the following favorable

outcomes.

(4,5),(5,4),(6,3)(3,6). There are 4 favorable outcomes.

Probability of an event P(E) = (Number of favorable outcomes) ÷ (Total outcomes

in a sample space)

Probability of getting number 9 = 4 ÷ 36 = 1/9

Answer: Therefore the probability of getting a sum of 9 is 1/9.

Probability Tree Diagram

A tree diagram in probability is a visual representation that helps in finding the

possible outcomes or the probability of any event occurring or not occurring. The

tree diagram for the toss of a coin given below helps in understanding the

possible outcomes when a coin is tossed. Each branch of the tree is associated

with the respective probability (just like how 0.5 is written on each brack in the
figure below). Remember that the sum of probabilities of all branches that start

from the same point is always 1 (here, 0.5 + 0.5 = 1).

Types of Probability
There can be different perspectives or types of probabilities based on the nature

of the outcome or the approach followed while finding probability of an event

happening. The four types of probabilities are,

● Classical Probability

● Empirical Probability

● Subjective Probability

● Axiomatic Probability

Classical Probability
Classical probability, often referred to as the "priori" or "theoretical probability",

states that in an experiment where there are B equally likely outcomes, and

event X has exactly A of these outcomes, then the probability of X is A/B, or P(X)

= A/B. For example, when a fair die is rolled, there are six possible outcomes that

are equally likely. That means, there is a 1/6 probability of rolling each number on

the die.

Empirical Probability

The empirical probability or the experimental perspective evaluates probability

through thought experiments. For example, if a weighted die is rolled, such that

we don't know which side has the weight, then we can get an idea for the

probability of each outcome by rolling the die number of times and calculating the

proportion of times the die gives that outcome and thus find the probability of that

outcome.

Subjective Probability

Subjective probability considers an individual's own belief of an event occurring.

For example, the probability of a particular team winning a football match on a

fan's opinion is more dependent upon their own belief and feeling and not on a

formal mathematical calculation.

Axiomatic Probability
In axiomatic probability, a set of rules or axioms by Kolmogorov are applied to all

the types. The chances of occurrence or non-occurrence of any event can be

quantified by the applications of these axioms, given as,

● The smallest possible probability is zero, and the largest is one.

● An event that is certain has a probability equal to one.

● Any two mutually exclusive events cannot occur simultaneously, while the

union of events says only one of them can occur.

Coin Toss Probability

Let us now look into the probability of tossing a coin. Quite often in games like

cricket, for making a decision as to who would bowl or bat first, we sometimes

use the tossing of a coin and decide based on the outcome of the toss. Let us

check how we can use the concept of probability in the tossing of a single coin.

Further, we shall also look into the tossing of two and three coins.

Tossing a Coin

A single coin on tossing has two outcomes, a head, and a tail. The concept of

probability which is the ratio of favorable outcomes to the total number of

outcomes can be used in finding probability of getting the head and the

probability of getting a tail.

Total number of possible outcomes = 2; Sample Space = {H, T}; H: Head, T: Tail

● P(H) = Number of heads/Total outcomes = 1/2

● P(T)= Number of Tails/ Total outcomes = 1/2

Tossing Two Coins

 2
In the process of tossing two coins, we have a total of four (= 2 ) outcomes. The

probability formula can be used to find the probability of two heads, one head, no

head, and a similar probability can be calculated for the number of tails. The

probability calculations for the two heads are as follows.

Total number of outcomes = 4; Sample Space = {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}

● P(2H) = P(0 T) = Number of outcome with two heads/Total Outcomes = 1/4

● P(1H) = P(1T) = Number of outcomes with only one head/Total Outcomes =

2/4 = 1/2

● P(0H) = (2T) = Number of outcome with two heads/Total Outcomes = 1/4

Tossing Three Coins

The number of total outcomes on tossing three coins simultaneously is equal to

3
2 = 8. For these outcomes, we can find the probability of getting one head, two

heads, three heads, and no head. A similar probability can also be calculated for

the number of tails.

3
Total number of outcomes = 2 = 8 Sample Space = {(H, H, H), (H, H, T), (H, T,

H), (T, H, H), (T, T, H), (T, H, T), (H, T, T), (T, T, T)}

● P(0H) = P(3T) = Number of outcomes with no heads/Total Outcomes = 1/8

● P(1H) = P(2T) = Number of Outcomes with one head/Total Outcomes = 3/8

● P(2H) = P(1T) = Number of outcomes with two heads /Total Outcomes = 3/8

● P(3H) = P(0T) = Number of outcomes with three heads/Total Outcomes = 1/8

Dice Roll Probability

Many games use dice to decide the moves of players across the games. A dice

has six possible outcomes and the outcomes of a dice is a game of chance and

can be obtained by using the concepts of probability. Some games also use two

dice, and there are numerous probabilities that can be calculated for outcomes

using two dice. Let us now check the outcomes, their probabilities for one dice

and two dice respectively.

Rolling One Dice

The total number of outcomes on rolling a die is 6, and the sample space is {1, 2,

3, 4, 5, 6}. Here we shall compute the following few probabilities to help in better

understanding the concept of probability on rolling one dice.

● P(Even Number) = Number of even number outcomes/Total Outcomes = 3/6

= 1/2

● P(Odd Number) = Number of odd number outcomes/Total Outcomes = 3/6 =

1/2

● P(Prime Number) = Number of prime number outcomes/Total Outcomes = 3/6

= 1/2

Rolling Two Dice

2
The total number of outcomes on rolling two dice is 6 = 36. The following image

shows the sample space of 36 outcomes on rolling two dice.

Let us check a few probabilities of the outcomes from two dice. The probabilities

are as follows.

● Probability of getting a doublet(Same number) = 6/36 = 1/6

● Probability of getting a number 3 on at least one dice = 11/36

● Probability of getting a sum of 7 = 6/36 = 1/6

As we see, when we roll a single die, there are 6 possibilities. When we roll two

2 3
dice, there are 36 (= 6 ) possibilities. When we roll 3 dice we get 216 (= 6 )
possibilities. So a general formula to represent the number of outcomes on rolling

n
'n' dice is 6 .

Probability of Drawing Cards

A deck containing 52 cards is grouped into four suits of clubs, diamonds, hearts,

and spades. Each of the clubs, diamonds, hearts, and spades have 13 cards

each, which sum up to 52. Now let us discuss the probability of drawing cards

from a pack. The symbols on the cards are shown below. Spades and clubs are

black cards. Hearts and diamonds are red cards.

The 13 cards in each suit are ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, jack, queen, king. In

these, the jack, the queen, and the king are called face cards. We can

understand the card probability from the following examples.

● The probability of drawing a black card is P(Black card) = 26/52 = 1/2

 ● The probability of drawing a hearts card is P(Hearts) = 13/52 = 1/4

● The probability of drawing a face card is P(Face card) = 12/52 = 3/13

● The probability of drawing a card numbered 4 is P(4) = 4/52 = 1/13

● The probability of drawing a red card numbered 4 is P(4 Red) = 2/52 = 1/26