FACULTY OF SCIENCE COMPUTER AND MATHEMATICS

CS230

APPLIED PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS

STA416

CSC584

Individual Assignment

Lecturer Name: DR. FAIZ BIN ZULKIFLI

Name Student ID

MOHAMAD AMIRUL AMIN BIN MOHD NAZLI 2022800956

QUESTION 1

a) Arranging 11 Persons with 3 Always Together

We treat the three persons as a single unit, reducing the problem to arranging 9 units (8
individuals + 1 group of 3).

1. Arrange the 9 units: 9! ways.

2. Arrange the 3 persons within their group: 3! ways.

Total number of ways: 9! × 3!

Calculating:

9! = 362880

3! = 6

9! ×3! = 362880 × 6

= 2177280

So, there are 2,177,280 ways to arrange the 11 persons with the 3 persons always together.

b) Selecting 4 Children with at Least 3 Boys

We have 6 boys and 4 girls. We need to select 4 children such that at least 3 are boys.
Given:

Boys = 6

Girls = 4

Formula used:

At least one boy = total selection - no boy selection

nCr = n! / [r! (n - r)!]

Where n = total possible number

r = required selection number

Calculation:

Total number of children = 6 + 4 = 10

Total number of selections

10C4 = (7x8×9×10) / (4×3×2)
= 210

No boy selection

4C4 = 1

At least one boy = 210 - 1 = 209

There are 209 ways to select at least one boy.

c) Probability Questions

Given: 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴)=0.28P(A)=0.28 𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵)=0.45P(B)=0.45 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴∩𝐵𝐵) =0.21

i) Find 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴∪𝐵𝐵) P(A∪B):

𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴∪𝐵𝐵) =𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴)+𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵)−𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴∩𝐵𝐵)

Calculating: 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴∪𝐵𝐵) =0.28+0.45−0.21=0.52

ii) Find 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴′∩𝐵𝐵′) P(A′∩B′):

Using the complement rule:

𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴′) =1−𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴)=1−0.28=0.72

𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵′) =1−𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵)=1−0.45=0.55

Using De Morgan's Law: 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴′∩𝐵𝐵′) =1−𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴∪𝐵𝐵)

Calculating: 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴′∩𝐵𝐵′) = 1−0.52=0.48

iii) Are 𝐴𝐴′ and 𝐵𝐵′ independent events?

Two events 𝐴𝐴 and 𝐵𝐵 are independent if: 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴∩𝐵𝐵) =𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴)⋅𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵)

For 𝐴𝐴′ and 𝐵𝐵′:

𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴′∩𝐵𝐵′) = 0.48

𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴′) ×𝑃𝑃(𝐵𝐵′) = 0.72×0.55 = 0.396

Since 0.48 ≠ 0.3960, 𝐴𝐴′=0.396, 𝐴𝐴′ and 𝐵𝐵′ are not independent events.
d) Vaccination and Chicken Pox

i. Tree Diagram:

ii. Probability that a baby is not infected by chicken pox:

𝑃𝑃(Not Infected)=𝑃𝑃(Vaccinated)×𝑃𝑃(Not Infected∣Vaccinated)+𝑃𝑃(Not Vaccinated)×𝑃𝑃(Not Infecte

d∣Not Vaccinated)

Calculating:

𝑃𝑃 (Not Infected) = 0.55 × 0.85 + 0.45 × 0.45

= 0.4675 + 0.2025

= 0.67

So, the probability that a baby is not infected by chicken pox is 0.67.

iii. Given a baby is infected, probability it is not vaccinated:

We use Bayes' Theorem:

𝑃𝑃 (Not Vaccinated ∣ Infected) = (𝑃𝑃 (Infected ∣ Not Vaccinated) ×𝑃𝑃 (Not Vaccinated)) / 𝑃𝑃
(Infected)

First, calculate 𝑃𝑃 (Infected)P(Infected):

𝑃𝑃 (Infected)=𝑃𝑃 (Vaccinated)×𝑃𝑃 (Infected ∣ Vaccinated) +𝑃𝑃 (Not Vaccinated) ×𝑃𝑃 (Infected ∣

Not Vaccinated)

𝑃𝑃 (Infected) = 0.55 × 0.15 + 0.45 × 0.55

𝑃𝑃 (Infected) = 0.0825 + 0.2475 = 0.33

Now, calculate 𝑃𝑃 (Not Vaccinated ∣ Infected):

𝑃𝑃 (Not Vaccinated ∣ Infected) = 0.55 × 0.45 / 0.33

𝑃𝑃 (Not Vaccinated ∣ Infected) = 0.2475 / 0.33 ≈ 0.75

So, the probability that a baby is not vaccinated given that it is infected is 0.75.

QUESTION 2

a) Distinct Arrangements of 'ATTENDANCE' with Two T's Together

The word 'ATTENDANCE' consists of 10 letters with the following frequencies:

• A: 2

• T: 2

• E: 2

• N: 2

• D: 1

• C: 1

We need to find the number of distinct arrangements where the two T's are together.
Consider the two T's as a single unit or block. This reduces the problem to arranging 9 units:
(TT), A, A, E, E, N, N, D, C.

The total number of distinct arrangements of these 9 units is given by:

9!
2! ∗ 2! ∗ 2!

Where:

• 9! is the total number of permutations of 9 units.

• 2!, 2!, 2! account for the repeated letters A, E, and N respectively.

Calculating this:

9! = 362880

2! = 2

362880 362880
(2 × 2 × 2)
= 8
= 45360

Thus, the number of distinct arrangements where the two T’s are together is 45360.

b) Events A and B with Given Probabilities

Given:

5
• 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴) =
12

7
• 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴∣𝐵𝐵′) =
12

1
• 𝑃𝑃(𝐴𝐴∩𝐵𝐵) =
8

i) To find P(B):

Using the formula P (A ∩ B) = P(A|B) * P(B), we can rearrange to get:

P(B) = P (A ∩ B) / P(A|B)

However, we don't know P(A|B). Let's use the law of total probability:

P(A) = P(A|B) * P(B) + P(A|B') * P(B')

5/12 = P(A|B) * P(B) + 7/12 * (1 - P(B))

Solving this system of equations, we get:

7
P(B) =
24

ii) To find P(A|B):

Using the formula P(A|B) = P (A ∩ B) / P(B):

1
8
P(A|B) = 7
24

3
=
7

iii) To find P (A ∪ B):

Using the formula P (A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B):

5 7 1
P (A ∪ B) = + −
12 24 8

19
=
24
c) Relationship between Blood Pressure and Heartbeat Abnormalities

i. Tree Diagram

Probabilities on the branches:

• 𝑃𝑃(𝐻𝐻) = 0.14

• 𝑃𝑃(𝐼𝐼∣𝐻𝐻) = 0.15

• 𝑃𝑃(𝑅𝑅∣𝐻𝐻) = 0.85

• 𝑃𝑃(𝐿𝐿) = 0.22

• 𝑃𝑃(𝐼𝐼∣𝐿𝐿) = 0.05

• 𝑃𝑃(𝑅𝑅∣𝐿𝐿) = 0.95

• 𝑃𝑃(𝑁𝑁) = 0.64

• 𝑃𝑃(𝐼𝐼∣𝑁𝑁) = 0.02
 • 𝑃𝑃(𝑅𝑅∣𝑁𝑁) = 0.98

ii) Probability of an Irregular Heartbeat

Using the law of total probability:

𝑃𝑃(𝐼𝐼) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐼𝐼∩𝐻𝐻) + 𝑃𝑃(𝐼𝐼∩𝐿𝐿) + 𝑃𝑃(𝐼𝐼∩𝑁𝑁)

Where:
𝑃𝑃(𝐼𝐼∩𝐻𝐻) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐻𝐻)⋅𝑃𝑃(𝐼𝐼∣𝐻𝐻)
𝑃𝑃(𝐼𝐼∩𝐿𝐿) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐿𝐿)⋅𝑃𝑃(𝐼𝐼∣𝐿𝐿)
𝑃𝑃(𝐼𝐼∩𝑁𝑁) = 𝑃𝑃(𝑁𝑁)⋅𝑃𝑃(𝐼𝐼∣𝑁𝑁)

Calculating each term:

𝑃𝑃(𝐼𝐼∩𝐻𝐻) = 0.14 × 0.15 = 0.021

𝑃𝑃(𝐼𝐼∩𝐿𝐿) = 0.22 × 0.05 = 0.011
𝑃𝑃(𝐼𝐼∩𝑁𝑁) = 0.64 × 0.02 = 0.0128

Summing these probabilities:

𝑃𝑃(𝐼𝐼) = 0.021 + 0.011 + 0.0128 = 0.0448

Therefore, the probability that a patient has an irregular heartbeat is:

𝑃𝑃(𝐼𝐼) = 0.0448

ii. Probability of High Blood Pressure given Regular Heartbeat

Using Bayes' theorem:

P(R∩H)
𝑃𝑃(𝐻𝐻∣𝑅𝑅) = P®

First, calculate 𝑃𝑃(𝑅𝑅):

𝑃𝑃(𝑅𝑅) = 𝑃𝑃(𝑅𝑅∩𝐻𝐻) + 𝑃𝑃(𝑅𝑅∩𝐿𝐿) + 𝑃𝑃(𝑅𝑅∩𝑁𝑁)

Where:
𝑃𝑃(𝑅𝑅∩𝐻𝐻) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐻𝐻)⋅𝑃𝑃(𝑅𝑅∣𝐻𝐻)
𝑃𝑃(𝑅𝑅∩𝐿𝐿) = 𝑃𝑃(𝐿𝐿)⋅𝑃𝑃(𝑅𝑅∣𝐿𝐿)
𝑃𝑃(𝑅𝑅∩𝑁𝑁) = 𝑃𝑃(𝑁𝑁)⋅𝑃𝑃(𝑅𝑅∣𝑁𝑁)

Calculating each term:

𝑃𝑃(𝑅𝑅∩𝐻𝐻) = 0.14 × 0.85 = 0.119
𝑃𝑃(𝑅𝑅∩𝐿𝐿) = 0.22 × 0.95 = 0.209
𝑃𝑃(𝑅𝑅∩𝑁𝑁) = 0.64 × 0.98 = 0.6272

Summing these probabilities:

𝑃𝑃(𝑅𝑅) = 0.119 + 0.209 + 0.6272 = 0.9552

Now, apply Bayes' theorem:

P(R∩H) 0.119
𝑃𝑃(𝐻𝐻∣𝑅𝑅) = P(R)
= ≈ 0.1246
0.9552

Therefore, the probability that a patient has high blood pressure given that they have a
regular heartbeat is:

𝑃𝑃(𝐻𝐻∣𝑅𝑅) ≈ 0.1246