OPERATION RESEARCH

CHAPTER FOUR
4. DECISION THEORY/ANALYSIS
Unit objective:
After completing this unit, the learner should be able to:
✓ Describe the basic characteristics of decision theory problems
✓ Differentiate between decision analysis under certainty and uncertainty.
✓ Describe the different approaches (criteria) to decision making under complete
uncertainty.
- Maximamax
- Maximix
- Minimax Regret
- The Hurwitz Criterion
✓ Use decision tree as decision making tools.
4.1. Introduction
Dear learner, in the previous units dealing with LP, models were formulated and solved in
order to aid the manager in making decision. The solutions to the models were represented by
values for the decision variables. However, these LP models are formulated under the
assumption that certainty existed. In actual practice, however, many decision making
situations occur under conditions of uncertainty. For example, the demand for a product may
be not 100 units next week, but 50 or 200 units, depending on the market (which is
uncertain).
4.2. Characteristics of Decision Theory
Decision theory problems are characterized by the following:
i. List of alternatives: are a set of mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive decisions
that are available to the decision maker (sometimes, not always, one of these alternatives
will be to “do nothing”.)
ii. States of nature: - the set of possible future conditions, or events, beyond the control of
the decision maker, that will be the primary determinants of the eventual consequence of
the decision. The states of nature, like the list of alternatives, must be mutually exclusive
and collectively exhaustive.
iii. Payoffs: - the payoffs might be profits, revenues, costs, or other measures of value.
Usually the measures are financial. Usually payoffs are estimated values. The more

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accurate these estimates, the more useful they will be for decision making purposes and
the more likely, it is that the decision maker will choose an appropriate alternative. The
number of payoffs depends on the number of alternative/state of nature combination.
iv. Degree of certainty: - the approach often used by a decision maker depends on the
degree of certainty that exists. There can be different degrees of certainty. One extreme is
complete certainty and the other is complete uncertainty. The later exists when the
likelihood of the various states of nature are unknown. Between these two extremes is
risk (probabilities are unknown for the states of nature). Knowledge of the likelihood of
each of the states of nature can play an important role in selecting a course of active.
v. Decision criteria: - the decision maker’s attitudes toward the decision as well as the
degree of certainty that surrounds a decision. Example; maximize the expected payoffs.
4.3. The Payoff Table
A payoff table: It is a device a decision maker can use to summarize and organize
information relevant to a particular decision. It includes:
- A list of alternatives,
- The possible future states of nature, and
- The payoffs associated with each of the alternative/state of nature combinations.
If probabilities for the states of nature are available, these can also be listed. The general
format of the table is illustrated below:
States of nature
S1 S2 S3
A1 V11 V12 V13
Alternatives A2 V21 V22 V23
A3 V31 V32 V33
Where:
Ai = the ith alternative
Sj = the jth states of nature
Vij = the value or payoff that will be realized if alternative i is chosen and event j
Occurs.
Decision situations can be categorized in to three classes:
- Situation of certainty,
- Situations where probabilities cannot be assigned to future occurrences and

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- Situations where probabilities can be assigned to future occurrences.

In this chapter we will discuss each of these classes of decision situations separately.
4.4. Decision Making Under Certainty
The simplest of all circumstances occurs when decision making takes place in an
environment of complete certainty. When a decision is made under conditions of complete
certainty, the attention of the decision maker is focused on the column in the payoff table that
corresponds to the state of nature that will occur. The decision maker then selects the
alternative that would yield the best payoff, given that state of nature.
Example: The following payoff table provides data about profits of the various states of
nature/alternative combination.
S1 S2 S3
A1 4 16 12
A2 5 6 10
A3 -1 4 15

If we know that S2 will occur, the decision maker then can focus on the first raw of the
payoff table. Because alternative A1 has the largest profit (16), it would be selected.
4.5. Decision Making Under Complete Uncertainty
Under complete uncertainty, the decision maker either is unable to estimate the probabilities
for the occurrence of the different state of nature, or else he or she lacks confidence in
available estimates of probabilities, and for that reason, probabilities are not included in the
analysis.
A decision making situation includes several components- the decision themselves and the
actual event that may occur future, known as state of nature. At the time the decision is made,
the decision maker is uncertain which state of nature will occur in the future, and has no
control over them.
Decisions made under these circumstances are at the opposite end of the spectrum from the
certainty case just mentioned. Once the decision has been organized in to a payoff table,
several criteria are available making the actual decision.
There are several approaches (criteria) to decision making under complete uncertainty.
Some of these discussed in this section include:
- Maximax,
- Maximin and

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- Minimax regret,
- The Hurwitz Criterion
i. Maximax: With the maiximax criterion, the decision maker selects the decision that will
result in the maximum of the maximum payoffs. (In fact this is how this criterion derives
its name- maximum of maximum). That maximax is very optimistic.
The decision maker assumes that the most promising state of nature for each decision
alternative will occur. For example, the investor would optimistically assume that good
economic conditions will prevail in the future. The best payoff for each alternative is
identified, and the alternative with the maximum of these is the designated decision.
For the previous problem:
S1 S2 S3 Row Maximum
A1 4 16 12 16*maximum
A2 5 6 10 10
A3 -1 4 15 15
Decision: A1 will be chosen.

Note: If the payoff table consists of costs instead of profits, the opposite selection would
be indicated: The minimum of minimum costs. For the subsequent decision criteria we
encounter, the same logic in the case of costs can be used.
ii. Maximin Criteria: This approach is the opposite of the previous one, i.e. it is
pessimistic.
This strategy is a conservative one; it consists of identifying the worst (minimum) payoff
for each alternative, and, then, selecting the alternative that has the best (maximum) of
the worst payoffs. In effect, the decision maker is setting a floor on the potential payoff by
selecting maximum of the minimum; the actual payoff cannot be less than this amount.
It involves selecting best of the worst.
For the previous problem:
S1 S2 S3 Row minimum
A1 4 16 12 4
A2 5 6 10 5*maximum
A3 -1 4 15 -1
Decision: A2 will be chosen.

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Note: If it were cost, the conservative approach would be to select the maximum cost for
each decision and select the minimum of these costs.
iii. Minimax Regret: Both the maximax and maximin strategies can be criticized because
they focus only on a single, extreme payoff and exclude the other payoffs. Thus, the
maximax strategy ignores the possibility that an alternative with a slightly smaller payoff
might offer a better overall choice. For example, consider this payoff table:
S1 S2 S3 Row Max.
A1 -5 16 -10 16*max
A2 15 15 15 15
A3 15 15 15 15

A similar example could be constructed to demonstrate comparable weaknesses of the

maximin criterion, which is also due to the failure to consider all payoffs.
An approach that does take all payoffs in to consideration is Minimax regret. In order to use
this approach, it is necessary to develop an opportunity loss table.
The opportunity loss: reflects the difference between each payoff and the best possible
payoff in a column (i.e., given a state of nature). Hence, opportunity loss amounts are found
by identifying the best payoff in a column and, then, subtracting each of the other values in
the column from that payoff.
Therefore, this decision avoids the greatest regret by selecting the decision alternative that
minimizes the maximum regret.
Example:
S1 S2 S3
A1 4 16 12
A2 5 6 10
A3 -1 4 15
1st. Develop Opportunity loss table: by subtracting each of cells values in each column
from the highest payoff.
Opportunity loss table:
S1 S2 S3
A1 5-4=1 16-16=0 15-12=3
A2 5-5=0 16-6=10 15-10=5
A3 5-(-1)=6 16-4=12 15-15=0

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The values in an opportunity loss table can be viewed as potential “regrets” that might be
suffered as the result of choosing various alternatives.
A decision maker could select an alternative in such a way as to minimize the maximum
possible regret. This requires identifying the maximum opportunity loss in each row and,
then, choosing the alternative that would yield the best (minimum) of those regrets.
2nd. Identifying the maximum opportunity loss in each row and then, choosing the
alternative that would yield the best (minimum) of those regrets.
S1 S2 S3 Max. Loss
A1 5-4=1 16-16=0 15-12=3 3*minimum
A2 5-5=0 16-6=10 15-10=5 10
A3 5-(-1)=6 16-4=12 15-15=0 12

iv. The Hurwitz Criterion

The Hurwitz criterion strikes a compromise between the maximax and maximin criterion. The
principle underlying this decision criterion is that the decision maker is neither totally
optimistic, nor totally pessimistic.
With Hurwitz criterion, the decision payoffs are weighted by a coefficient of optimism, a
measure of a decision maker’s optimism. The coefficient of optimism, which is defined as,
is between zero and one (0< <1).
- If  = 1, then the decision maker is said to be completely optimistic,
- If  = 0, then the decision maker is completely pessimistic.
Given this definition, if  is coefficient of optimism, 1- is coefficient of pessimism.
The Hurwitz criterion requires that for each alternative, the maximum payoff is multiplied by
 and the minimum payoff be multiplied by 1-.
Example: If  = 0.4 for the above example,
S1 S2 S3 Row Max. Hurwitz Max.
A1 4 16 12 16*max A1 = (0.4x16) + (0.6x4) = 8.8
A2 5 6 10 10 A2 = (0.4x10) + (0.6x5) = 7
A3 -1 4 15 15 A3 = (0.4x15) – (0.6x1) = 5.4

Decision: A1 is selected

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A limitation of Hurwicz criterion is the fact that  must be determined by the decision maker.
Regardless of how the decision maker determines, it is still a completely a subjective
measure of the decision maker’s degree of optimism. Therefore, Hurwicz criterion is a
completely subjective decision making criterion.
4.6. Summary
- Decision theory problems are characterized by, list of alternatives, states of nature,
payoffs, degree of certainty, decision criteria.
- Decision situations can be categorized in to three classes: Situation of certainty,
Situations where probabilities cannot be assigned to future occurrences and Situations
where probabilities can be assigned to future occurrences.
- There are several approaches (criteria) to decision making under complete uncertainty.
Some of these discussed in this section include: maximax, maximin,minimax regret,
Hurwitz, and equal likelihood.
- Decision trees represent an alternative approach to payoff tables; which are used for
problems that involve a series of chronological decisions by portraying sequential
decisions graphically.

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