Chapter 4: SCIENCE AND NATURE OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
How climate change will affect the different
regions of the world
Climate change will affect all countries, but people in the
poorest countries and poor people in richer countries are more
likely to suffer the most.
tend to live in high risk areas such as unstable slopes and flood
plains, and often cannot afford well-built houses.
Many of them depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as
agriculture, and have little or no means to cope with climate
change, for example owing to low savings, no property
insurance and poor access to public services. Climate change is
expected to reduce already low incomes and increase illness
and death rates in many developing countries.
Africa, small island states, and the Asian and African mega-
deltas are likely to be particularly affected by climate change.
Africa
Africa is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate
change because of multiple stresses and low adaptive
capacities, arising from endemic poverty, weak institutions,
and complex disasters and associated conflicts.
Drought will continue to be a primary concern for many
African populations.
The frequency of weather- and climate-related disasters has
increased since the 1970s, and the Sahel and Southern Africa
have become drier during the twentieth century.
Water supplies and agricultural production will become even
more severely diminished.
By 2020, in some African countries agricultural yields could
be reduced by as much as 50%. By the 2080s, the area of arid
and semiarid land in Africa will likely increase by 5-8%.
Asia
main issues will be the availability of adequate fresh water, which by
the 2050s will be a concern for possibly more than one billion
people.
The continued melting of glaciers in the Himalayan region is
projected to increase flooding and rock avalanches and to adversely
affect water resources in the next two to three decades.
Asia’s coastal areas, and especially its heavily populated delta
regions, will become even more prone to increased flooding because
of both rising sea levels and river flooding.
Australia and New Zealand
Australia and New Zealand may face more frequent extreme
events such as heat waves, droughts, fires, floods, landslides
and storm surges.
conditions will increase stresses on water
supplies and agriculture and will change
natural ecosystems.
Less seasonal snow cover and shrinking
glaciers will create additional problems.
Coastal areas are projected to be threatened by the
consequences of rising sea levels and increasingly
severe and more frequent storms and coastal flooding
by 2050.
Latin America
Latin America’s changes in precipitation patterns and
the disappearance of glaciers will significantly reduce
the amount of water available for human
consumption, agriculture and energy generation.
In drier areas, climate change is expected to lead to
increased salinization and desertification of
agricultural land.
The productivity of some crops and livestock will
decrease, with adverse consequences for food
security.
North America
experience further decrease of mountain snow
due to rising temperatures leading to increased
winter flooding and reduced summer flows, and
to altered seasonal availability of water.
Many areas are expected to experience
more, longer and hotter heat waves,
with a greater potential for adverse
health impacts
Sustained higher temperatures also will increase the risk
of forest fires. Coastal communities will be increasingly
threatened if the intensity of tropical storms increases.
Polar Regions
Polar Regions are likely to experience reductions in the thickness of
glaciers and the extent of ice sheets, and changes in natural
ecosystems.
The impacts on human communities in the Arctic will be reflected
in changes in infrastructure and traditional or indigenous ways of
living.
Small island states, coastal systems and
other low-lying areas
Small island states, coastal systems and other low-lying
areas are especially vulnerable to the effects of climate
change, rising sea levels and extreme weather events.
Millions of people are likely to be affected by floods,
storm surges, erosion and other coastal hazards every
year due to rising sea levels by the 2080s, particularly in
the large deltas of Asia and Africa and the small island
states.
By mid-century, reduced water resources are expected in
many small islands, e.g., in the Caribbean and Pacific.
How climate change will affect key sectors
Water
Drought-affected areas will likely become more widely
distributed.
Heavier precipitation events are very likely to increase in
frequency leading to higher flood risks.
By mid-century, water availability will likely decrease in mid-
latitudes, in the dry tropics and in other regions, supplied by
melt water from mountain ranges.
More than one sixth of the world’s population is currently
dependent on melt water from mountain ranges.
Food
While some mid-latitude and high-latitude areas will initially
benefit from higher agricultural production, for many others at
lower-latitudes, especially in seasonally dry and tropical regions,
the increase in temperature and the frequency of droughts and
floods are likely to affect crop production negatively, which
could increase the number of people at risk from hunger and
increased levels of displacement and migration.
Industry, settlement and society
The most vulnerable industries, settlements and
societies are generally those located in coastal areas and
river flood plains, and those whose economies are
closely linked with climate-sensitive resources.
This applies particularly to locations already prone to
extreme weather events, and especially areas
undergoing rapid urbanization.
Where extremes weather events become more intense
or more frequent, the economic and social costs of those
events will increase.
HEALTH
The projected changes in climate are
likely to alter the health status of
millions of people, including through
increase deaths, disease and injury
due to heat waves, floods, storms,
fires and droughts.
Increased malnutrition, diarrheal
disease and malaria in some areas will
increase vulnerability to extreme
public health and development goals
will be threatened by longer-term
damage to health system from
disasters.
Video presentation
Addressing the Problem of Climate Change
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies
There is a lot we can do about climate change. In
general, climate solutions fall into two big buckets —
“mitigation” and “adaptation.”
Increasingly, government and community organizations
also talk about measures to increase climate
“resilience.”
These concepts are not distinct, and are all inter-
related.
Countries are actively discussing and negotiating
ways to deal with the climate change problem,
within the UNFCCC.
The means to achieve this are very contentious, as it
will require radical changes in the way many
societies are organized, especially in respect to
fossil fuel use, industry operations, urban
development and land use.
Within the climate change arena, the reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions is called “mitigation”
Mitigation - measures to reduce the amount and speed
of future climate change by reducing emissions of
heat-trapping gases or removing carbon dioxide from
the atmosphere.”
Mitigation - IPCC as “an
anthropogenic
intervention to reduce the
anthropogenic forcing of
the climate system;
it includes strategies to
reduce greenhouse gas
sources and emissions and
enhancing greenhouse gas
sinks”.
Natural carbon sinks, such as forests, vegetation and
soils, can be managed to absorb carbon dioxide, and
technologies are being developed to capture carbon
dioxide at industrial sources and to inject it into
permanent storage deep underground. UNIT 731
Adaptation - measures taken to reduce the harmful
impacts of climate change or take advantage of any
beneficial opportunities through “adjustments in natural or
human systems.”
Adaptation - IPCC as “the adjustment in natural or human
systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or
their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial
opportunities”.
Examples of adaptation include preparing risk assessments,
protecting ecosystems, improving agricultural methods,
managing water resources, building settlements in safe zones,
developing early warning systems, instituting better building
designs, improving insurance coverage and developing social
safety nets.
These measures are intrinsically linked to sustainable
development, as they reduce the risk to lives and livelihoods and
increase the resilience of communities to all hazards.
Ideally, adaptation and mitigation should be considered jointly,
as some adaptation measures can contribute to reducing
greenhouse gas emissions, while conversely mitigation measures
can be planned to help reduce, and not inadvertently
exacerbate, disaster risks.
Resilience “capability to anticipate, prepare
for, respond to, and recover from significant
threats with minimum damage to social well-
being, the economy, and the environment.”