Payment for the Ride: Chapter 7 Overview
Payment for the Ride: Chapter 7 Overview
Chapter 7:
The Asset Market, Money, and Prices
2
Overview
• So far, in Chapter 3, 4, and 6, we focused on models with real
variables
• e.g. output, employment, consumption, savings, investment
• All prices were real prices (i.e. measured in the unit of goods like oranges).
3
Chapter Outline
• What Is Money?
• Portfolio Allocation and the Demand for Assets
• The Demand for Money
• Asset Market Equilibrium
• Money Growth and Inflation
4
What Is Money?
• Money: assets that are widely used and accepted as payment
• Matter of degree
• Currency, check, gold, bank deposit (checking/saving account), credit card,
Octopus Card etc.
5
What Is Money?
• The functions of money
• Medium of exchange
• Barter is inefficient—double coincidence of wants (i.e. both parties have to agree
with the trade)
• e.g. You want to sell oranges and want to buy apples. Need to find someone
who wants to sell apples and buy oranges.
• Money allows people to trade their labor for money, then use the money to buy
goods and services in separate transactions
• Money permits people to trade with less cost in time and effort
• This feature is most fundamental (leads to the second and third features)
6
What Is Money?
• The functions of money
• Unit of account
• Money is basic unit for measuring economic value
• Prices in HKD
• Simplifies comparisons of prices, wages, and incomes
• The unit-of-account function is closely linked with the medium-of-exchange
function
7
What Is Money?
• The functions of money
• Store of value
• Money can be used to hold wealth
• Most people use money only as a store of value for a short period and for small
amounts, because it earns less interest than money in the bank
8
What Is Money?
• Brief history of money
• 1st stage: Money as a commodity
• Gold, silver or other valuable items
• Government issued coins
• Money has intrinsic value
10
What Is Money?
• Measuring money
• The M1 monetary aggregate
• Currency held by the public
• Checking accounts
• Saving accounts
• Saving accounts were added to M1 in 2021
• Demand deposits (a bank account with which deposited funds can be withdrawn at
any time)
11
What Is Money?
• Measuring money
• The M2 monetary aggregate
• M2 = M1 + less money like assets
12
Table 7.1: U.S. Monetary Aggregates (December 2021)
• Amounts in billions of dollars
13
What Is Money?
• Monetary system in Hong Kong
• Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA)
• De facto central bank
• Ensure the stability of HKD and the banking system
• Linked exchange rate system
• Established in 1983
• 1 USD at 7.8 HKD
• HKMA authorizes note-issuing banks (three commercial banks below) to issue
new banknotes but they need to deposit an equivalent value of USD with HKMA
• HSBC
• Standard Chartered Bank
• Bank of China
14
What Is Money?
• Next, we consider money market equilibrium
• Money supply
• Money demand
• Money supply = money demand
15
What Is Money?
• The money supply
• How does the central bank of a country increase the money supply?
• Use newly printed money to buy financial assets from the public—an open-
market purchase
• To reduce the money supply, sell financial assets to the public to remove money
from circulation—an open-market sale
16
What Is Money?
• The money supply
• How does the central bank of a country increase the money supply?
• Could also buy newly issued government bonds directly from the government
(i.e., the Treasury)
• This is the same as the government financing its expenditures directly by printing
money
• Throughout text, use the variable M to represent money supply; this might be
M1 or M2
17
Portfolio Allocation and the Demand for Assets
• Next, let’s consider money demand
• How do people allocate their wealth among various assets? The
portfolio allocation decision
• You have 1m HKD worth wealth and want to allocated it across different
assets
• Money vs other assets(Bonds/Stocks/Houses etc.)
18
Portfolio Allocation and the Demand for Assets
• How is the demand for money determined?
19
Portfolio Allocation and the Demand for Assets
• Expected return
• Rate of return = an asset’s increase in value per unit of time
• Bank account: Rate of return = interest rate
• Corporate stock: Rate of return = dividend yield
+ percent increase in stock price
• Investors want assets with the highest expected return (other things equal)
20
Portfolio Allocation and the Demand for Assets
• Risk
• Risk is the degree of uncertainty in an asset’s return
• People don’t like risk, so they prefer assets with low risk (other things equal)
• Risk premium: the amount by which the expected return on a risky asset
exceeds the return on an otherwise comparable safe asset
• e.g. government bonds vs corporate bonds
21
Portfolio Allocation and the Demand for Assets
• Liquidity
• Liquidity: the ease and quickness with which an asset can be traded
• Money is very liquid
• Assets like automobiles and houses are very illiquid— long time and large
transaction costs to trade them
• Stocks and bonds are fairly liquid
• Investors prefer liquid assets (other things equal)
22
Portfolio Allocation and the Demand for Assets
• Time to maturity
• Time to maturity: the amount of time until a financial security matures and
the investor is repaid the principal
• For simply, you can assume the maturity of a bond is one year in a model.
• e.g., 1-year government bond
23
Portfolio Allocation and the Demand for Assets
• Types of assets and their characteristics
• People hold many different assets, including money, bonds, stocks, houses,
and consumer durable goods
• Money has a low return, but low risk and high liquidity
• Bonds have a higher return than money, but have more risk and less liquidity
• Stocks pay dividends and can have capital gains and losses, and are much more
risky than money
• Ownership of a small business is very risky and not liquid at all, but may pay a
very high return
• Housing provides housing services and the potential for capital gains, but is quite
illiquid
24
Portfolio Allocation and the Demand for Assets
• Types of assets and their characteristics
• Households must consider what mix of assets they wish to own
• The table illustrates the large declines in the value of stocks and housing in
the financial crisis
25
Table 7.2: Household Assets, 2006, 2009, and 2021
26
Portfolio Allocation and the Demand for Assets
• Asset Demands
• Trade-off among expected return, risk, liquidity, and time to maturity
• Assets with low risk and high liquidity, like checking accounts, have low
expected returns
• Investors consider diversification: spreading out investments in different
assets to reduce risk
• The amount a wealth holder wants of an asset is his or her demand for that
asset
27
The Demand for Money
• The demand for money is the quantity of monetary assets people
want to hold in their portfolios
• As an asset, money demand depends on expected return, risk, and liquidity
28
The Demand for Money
• Key macroeconomic variables that affect money demand
• Interest rates
• As an asset
• Price level
• Real income
• For transactions (liquidity)
29
The Demand for Money
• Price level
• The higher the price level, the more money you need for transactions
• Prices are 10 times as high today as 65 years ago, so it takes 10 times as much
money for equivalent transactions
30
The Demand for Money
• Real income
• The more transactions you conduct, the more money you need
31
The Demand for Money
• Real income
• But money demand isn’t proportional to real income, since higher-income
individuals use money more efficiently, and since a country’s financial
sophistication grows as its income rises (use of credit and more sophisticated
assets)
• Robinson’s income = 1m HKD
• Friday’s income = 2m HKD
• Suppose Robinson holds 0.1m HKD as money(currency + checking and saving
accounts). Friday holds less than 0.2m HKD as money.
• Result: Money demand rises less than 1 for 1 with a rise in real income
32
The Demand for Money
• Interest rates
• An increase in the interest rate or return on nonmonetary assets decreases
the demand for money
• Nonmonetary assets: Aggregate of bonds, stocks, etc.
• Though there are many nonmonetary assets with many different interest
rates, because they often move together we assume that for nonmonetary
assets there’s just one nominal interest rate, 𝑖
33
The Demand for Money
• The money demand function
𝑀𝑑 = 𝑃 × 𝐿 𝑌, 𝑖
34
The Demand for Money
• The money demand function
• As discussed above, nominal money demand is proportional to the price level
• We exclude 𝑖 𝑚 from the money demand function since it doesn’t vary much
• 𝑖 𝑚 : return on money (e.g. saving account interest rate). We ignore it as it is
typically small
35
The Demand for Money
• The money demand function
• Alternative expression:
𝑀𝑑 = 𝑃 × 𝐿 𝑌, 𝑟 + 𝜋 𝑒
• Alternative expression 2:
𝑀𝑑
= 𝐿 𝑌, 𝑟 + 𝜋 𝑒
𝑃
𝑀𝑑
• In terms of real money demand =
𝑃
36
The Demand for Money
• The money demand function
• Q: Why is the nominal interest rate entering money demand function
instead of the real interest rate?
𝑀𝑑 = 𝑃 × 𝐿 𝑌, 𝑖
• Think about the return on money and nonmonetary assets
• Example
• 2% annual nominal interest rate for bonds
• 1HKD to 1.02HKD after a year
• What is the nominal return on money?
• Q: Suppose the expected inflation rate is 3%. What is the real interest rate for
bonds and money?
37
The Demand for Money
• Zero lower bound of nominal interest rate
• The nominal interest rate cannot go below 0%
• Why?
• Suppose the nominal interest rate is negative 1% (e.g. Saving account interest
rate is -1%). What are you going to do?
38
Figure: Nominal and real interest rates in the United
States, 1960–2017
39
The Demand for Money
• Other factors affecting money demand
• Wealth: A rise in wealth may increase money demand, but not by much
• Risk
• Increased riskiness in the economy may increase money demand (risk in stock
market)
• Times of erratic inflation bring increased risk to money, so money demand
declines
40
The Demand for Money
• Other factors affecting money demand
• Liquidity of alternative assets: Deregulation, competition, and innovation
have given other assets more liquidity, reducing the demand for money
• Now quite easy to trade stocks
• Payment technologies: Credit cards, ATMs, and other financial innovations
reduce money demand
• In general,
𝑀𝑑 = 𝑃 × 𝐿 𝑌, 𝑖, 𝑤𝑒𝑎𝑙𝑡ℎ, 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘, 𝑒𝑡𝑐.
41
The Demand for Money
• Money demand in general
• Questions
• Because of the spread of Coronavirus, the stock market is experiencing large
fluctuations. What happens to the money demand?
• High risk for nonmonetary assets, people demand more money
• During the Christmas season, people go shopping more frequently. What happens to
the money demand?
• People want to have more liquidity for transactions, so people demand more money
• GDP decreases by 10% this year, what happens to the money demand?
• People do less transactions and thus demand less money
42
Summary 9: Macroeconomic Determinants of the
Demand for Money
Causes money demand
An increase in to Reason
Price level, P Rise proportionally A doubling of the price level doubles the
number of dollars needed for transactions.
Real income, Y Rise less than Higher real income implies more transactions
proportionally and thus a greater demand for liquidity.
Real interest rate, r Fall Higher real interest rate means a higher return
on alternative assets and thus a switch away
from money.
Expected inflation, πe Fall Higher expected inflation means a lower real
return on money and thus a switch away from
money.
Nominal interest rate on Fall Higher return on nonmonetary assets makes
nonmonetary assets, i people less willing to hold money
43
Summary 9: Macroeconomic Determinants of the
Demand for Money
Causes money
An increase in demand to Reason
Nominal interest rate on Rise Higher return on money makes people more
money, im willing to hold money.
Wealth Rise Part of an increase in wealth may be held in
the form of money.
Risk Rise, if risk of Higher risk of alternative asset makes money
alternative asset more attractive.
increases
Blank Fall, if risk of money Higher risk of money makes it less attractive.
increases
Liquidity of alternative Fall Higher liquidity of alternative assets makes
assets these assets more attractive.
Efficiency of payments Fall People can operate with less money.
technologies
44
The Demand for Money
• Elasticities of money demand
𝑀𝑑 = 𝑃 × 𝐿 𝑌, 𝑖
45
The Demand for Money
• Elasticities of money demand
• Income elasticity of money demand
• % change in money demand when there is 1% increase in income
• Positive: Higher income increases money demand
• Less than one: Higher income increases money demand less than
proportionately
• Empirical results: income elasticity = 2/3
• Income increases by 1%, money demand increases by 1x2/3=0.666%
46
The Demand for Money
• Elasticities of money demand
• Interest elasticity of money demand
• % change in money demand when the nominal interest rate increases by 1
percentage point
• Small and negative: Higher interest rate on nonmonetary assets reduces money
demand slightly
• E.g. -1/5: 1 percentage point increase in the nominal interest rate decreases money
demand by 1/5%
47
The Demand for Money
• Money demand
𝑀𝑑 = 𝑃 × 𝐿 𝑌, 𝑖
• Example
2
𝑀𝑑 𝑌3
= 1
𝑃
1+𝑖 5
• Compare before (time 𝑡) and after (time 𝑡 + 1)
2 2
𝑀𝑡𝑑 𝑌𝑡 3 𝑑
𝑀𝑡+1 𝑌𝑡+1 3
• = 1 𝑎𝑛𝑑 = 1
𝑃𝑡 𝑃𝑡+1
1+𝑖𝑡 5 1+𝑖𝑡+1 5
• Take the ratio and natural log (remember how to compute growth rates using
natural log. A growth rate is a percent change.)
48
The Demand for Money
2
𝑑 𝑌𝑡+1 3
𝑀𝑡+1 1
𝑃𝑡+1 1 + 𝑖𝑡+1 5
l𝑛 = 𝑙𝑛 2
𝑀𝑡𝑑
𝑌𝑡 3
𝑃𝑡 1
1 + 𝑖𝑡 5
∆𝑀𝑑 ∆𝑃 2 ∆𝑌 1 1 + 𝑖𝑡+1
𝑑
− = − 𝑙𝑛
𝑀 𝑃 3 𝑌 5 1 + 𝑖𝑡
• In the end,
∆𝑀𝑑 ∆𝑃 2 ∆𝑌 1
𝑑
= + − ∆𝑖
𝑀 𝑃 3 𝑌 5
1+𝑖𝑡+1
• where 𝑙𝑛 = 𝑙𝑛 1 + 𝑖𝑡+1 − 𝑙𝑛 1 + 𝑖𝑡 ≅ 𝑖𝑡+1 − 𝑖𝑡
1+𝑖𝑡
• (Remember 𝑙𝑛 1 + 𝑖𝑡 ≅ 𝑖𝑡 when 𝑖𝑡 is close to 0.)
49
The Demand for Money
∆𝑀𝑑 ∆𝑃 2 ∆𝑌 1
𝑑
= + − ∆𝑖
𝑀 𝑃 3 𝑌 5
• Questions
• What is the price elasticity of money demand? 1.
• What is the income elasticity of money demand? 2/3.
• What is the interest rate elasticity of money demand? -1/5.
1 ∆𝑖
• Notice it is NOT − . As 𝑖 is already in %, we prefer ∆𝑖. For example, 5% to
5 𝑖
∆𝑖 0.01
6% means ∆𝑖 = 0.01. However, = = 0.2 and it is not intuitive.
𝑖 0.05
• Sometimes 1/5 above is called semi-elasticity
50
The Demand for Money
• Long-run relationship between money and inflation
• Long-run: Longer than a decade
• Alternative theory of money: Quantity theory of money
• Velocity of money
• What’s velocity?
• Velocity (𝑉) measures how much money “turns over” each period (i.e. how
many times money is used)
51
Figure 7.2: Velocity of M1 and M2, 1959Q1–2021Q4
52
The Demand for Money
• In the long run, the velocity of M2 is stable
• How about the short run?
• Let’s look at quarterly growth rates
𝑀𝑉 = 𝑃𝑌
• So, in growth rates
∆𝑀 ∆𝑉 ∆𝑃 ∆𝑌
+ = +
𝑀 𝑉 𝑃 𝑌
∆𝑀
• : growth rate of money
𝑀
∆𝑃 ∆𝑌
• + : growth rate of nominal GDP
𝑃 𝑌
∆𝑉
• Compute growth rates of velocity in the short run
𝑉
53
Figure: Growth rates of velocity for M2, 1960Q1–
2019Q4
54
The Demand for Money
• Data of velocity
• M2 velocity is closer to being a constant in the long run, but not over short
periods
55
The Demand for Money
• Quantity theory of money
𝑀𝑡𝑑
= 𝑘𝑌𝑡
𝑃𝑡
56
The Demand for Money
• A restatement of the quantity theory
∆𝑀 ∆𝑃 ∆𝑌
= +
𝑀 𝑃 𝑌
∆𝑌 ∆𝑀
• In addition, assume is mostly unaffected by . This is called the
𝑌 𝑀
neutrality of money (More on this later).
∆𝑌 ∆𝑀 ∆𝑃
• Or assume is small compared with or and relatively constant
𝑌 𝑀 𝑃
57
Figure : The relationship between money growth and
inflation (1990-2011)
58
The Demand for Money
• Recap
• This long run relationship may not hold in the short run
∆𝑉
• =0 (Quantity theory of money) may not hold in the short run.
𝑉
∆𝑌 ∆𝑀
• may be affected by in the short run. Neutrality of money does not
𝑌 𝑀
hold.
• Example (long-run)
• In 10 years,
∆𝑀 ∆𝑉 ∆𝑌
• = 0.5, = 0, = 0.1
𝑀 𝑉 𝑌
∆𝑃 ∆𝑀 ∆𝑌
• Then, = − = 0.5 − 0.1 = 0.4
𝑃 𝑀 𝑌
∆𝑀
• If the central bank sets =1
𝑀
∆𝑃 ∆𝑀 ∆𝑌
• Then, = − = 1 − 0.1 = 0.9
𝑃 𝑀 𝑌
59
The Demand for Money
• In the long run, inflation is determined by money supply
• Question
• Suppose GDP is determined by the Solow model and 𝑉 is constant and money
supply determines inflation.
• Why is it difficult to stabilize inflation, at least in the long run?
• Why would a central bank print too much money if it knows that high inflation
will result?
• We still observe hyperinflation.
• Data (IMF): Link
60
Figure : Hyperinflations in History
61
The Demand for Money
• One reason
• Seigniorage revenue
• Government has an incentive to print more money to pay its bills (this revenue is
called seigniorage)
• If the government cannot finance spending with taxes or borrowing,
printing money may be only alternative
• Especially during and after wars
• Collecting tax may be difficult in developing countries .
62
The Demand for Money
• One idea to solve this problem: Fixed exchange rate to commodities
(e.g. gold) or other currencies
• Restrict the government’s ability to print money freely
• These do not always work in history
• Prices of commodities are not always stable
• Risk of devaluation (or default), people need to believe the government to
pay gold/other currencies
• Hong Kong: Fixed exchange rate to USD
63
The Demand for Money
• Gold standard system
• A currency is pegged to the price of a specific amount of gold
• The US was on a pure gold standard system between 1873 and 1933
• Halted convertibility domestically and devalued the USD about 41% in 1933.
• Convertibility for international transactions ended in 1971.
• The UK was on a gold standard system until 1931.
64
Figure : US and UK Price Level, 1865-1914
65
The Demand for Money
• Persistent deflation
• Why?
• Production of gold did not keep up with increased demand for gold
• Under the gold standard, inflation is dictated by world production of gold (supply
of gold = M), relative growth in world economy (=Y that determines demand for
gold as money) and other demand for gold
66
Figure : Gold Production
67
Figure : Price of Goods
68
Figure : Currency System (Exchange Rate Regimes) in
the World
69
Asset Market Equilibrium
• Next let’s think about equilibrium as usual
• Asset market equilibrium—an aggregation assumption
• Assume that all assets can be grouped into two categories, money and
nonmonetary assets
• Money includes currency (and checking accounts)
• Pays interest rate 𝑖 𝑚
• Supply is fixed at 𝑀
• Nonmonetary assets include stocks, bonds, land, etc.
• Pays interest rate 𝑖 = 𝑟 + 𝜋 𝑒
• Supply is fixed at NM
70
Asset Market Equilibrium
• Asset market equilibrium occurs when quantity of money supplied
equals quantity of money demanded
• 𝑚𝑑 + 𝑛𝑚𝑑 = total nominal wealth of an individual
71
Asset Market Equilibrium
• So excess demand for money 𝑀𝑑 − 𝑀 plus excess demand for
nonmonetary assets 𝑁𝑀𝑑 − 𝑁𝑀 equals 0
72
Asset Market Equilibrium
• The asset market equilibrium condition
𝑀 = 𝑀𝑑 = 𝑃 × 𝐿 𝑌, 𝑟 + 𝜋 𝑒
73
Asset Market Equilibrium
• The asset market equilibrium condition
• With all the other variables in the asset market equilibrium condition
determined, the asset market equilibrium condition determines the price
level
𝑀
𝑃=
𝐿 𝑌, 𝑟 + 𝜋 𝑒
• The price level is the ratio of nominal money supply to real money demand
74
Summary
• Money
• Means of transaction
• Unit of account, store of value
• M1, M2
• Money supply
• Exogenous
• Will discuss how policy makers decide later
• Money demand function
• Portfolio allocation problem
• Money vs nonmonetary assets
• Price level, interest rate and income
75
Summary
• Velocity of money
• M2
• Long run relatively stable, short run unstable
• Quantity theory of money
• Long-run determination of price level
• Neutrality of money
• Inflation
• Long-run
• Monetary phenomenon
• Financing expenditure
• Short-run
• Will study in Ch.9
76
Review
• Assume the money demand function discussed before
∆𝑀𝑑 ∆𝑃 2 ∆𝑌 1
𝑑
= + − ∆𝑖
𝑀 𝑃 3 𝑌 5
77
Review
• 2% inflation rate
∆𝑃
• = 0.02
𝑃
• In equilibrium, money supply = money demand
∆𝑀 ∆𝑀𝑑 ∆𝑃 2 ∆𝑌 1 2 1
• = = + − ∆𝑖 = 0.02 + 0.03 − 0.05
𝑀 𝑀𝑑 𝑃 3 𝑌 5 3 5
• In the end, we get
∆𝑀
• = 0.03
𝑀
78