Principles of Animal Breeding

Animal Science 301

Laboratory Exercise No. 5

ANALYSIS and PREDICTION OF GENETIC DATA:
Probability, Binomial Expansion and Chi-Squared Method

INTRODUCTION

Genetic data can be predicted and analyzed using the rules of probability,
binomial expansion and chi-square analysis. Although exact predictions may not
be possible for the occurrence of an event, the probability of an event might
occur can be predicted.
In doing genetic experiments, the observed ratio may be compared with
theoretical prediction. This can be done using a quantitative tool known as
chi-squared analysis where the goodness of fit of observed data with expected
results can be compared and where appropriate conclusion can be based.

OBJECTIVES

To be able to analyze genetic data and predict genetic outcomes

To learn the rules of probability and binomial expansion
To learn the basic method of chi-squared method

METHODS

Analyze actual genetic data and predict genetic outcomes

I. Probability

The probability of an event maybe considered equivalent to the proportion

of times that an event is expected to occur in numerous repeated times

Probability range from 0 to 1

0 – event will not occur

1 – event will occur with certainty

P (event) = number of times the event occurred

total number of events

Example: Flip a coin 100 times

 P (Head) = 50/100 = 0.5 or ½

Sum of Probability = 1

Example: P (head) + P (tail) = 1

0.5 + 0.5 = 1

Mutually exclusive events – if one outcome occurs in a single event, then the
other outcome cannot occur in the same event.

Example: Coin toss – head or tail

Birth – boy or girl, male or female

1. Sum rule of Probability

The combined P of two (or more) mutually exclusive events occurring is

the sum of their individual probabilities

P (Event A or Event B) = P (A) + P (B)

Example: Single toss of coin

P (Head or Tail) = 0.5 + 0.5 = 1

Example: For a single roll of die

P (2 or 5) = P (2) + P (5)
1/6 + 1/6 = 2/6 = 1/3 or 33%

Example: Mendel’s experiment W – round seed, w – wrinkled seed

Ww = P (W) = 0.5
P (w) = 0.5

What is the probability of getting round seeds?

P (WW) + P (Ww) = ¼ + ½ = ¾ or 75%

2. Product rule of probability

The joint probability of two independent events occurring is the product of

their individual probabilities.

P (A and B occurring) = P (A) x P (B/A)

 = P (B) x P (A/B)

Independent means – occurrence of one event has no influence on the

occurrence of any other events

Example: Births – successive offspring are independent

Example: P (Head on each coin) = P (head) x P (head)

0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25

Example: P (roll die to get 1 twice) = 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36

Example: Albinism – lack of skin pigment

A – dominant
a – recessive (albino)

What is the P (2 children with normal pigmentation)

P: Aa x Aa

F1: ¼ AA: ½ Aa: ¼ aa

P (2 kids) = ¾ x ¾ = 9/16

Example: In cattle:
H – polled – dominant
h – horn – recessive

If two polled cattle were mated and produce a horn calf. What’s the
genotype of each parents

P Hh x Hh

F1 ¼ HH: ½ Hh: ¼ hh

These same 2 individuals will be mated. The next 3 seasons,

Probability all 3 calves polled

P (all 3 polled) = (3/4 )3 = P (1st polled and 2nd and 3rd)

= ¾ x ¾ x ¾ = 9/64

3. Conditional Probability

The probability of an event occurring that is contingent or conditional

 on events that already occurred

P (A/B) = P(A) / P(B)

Example: Probability of rolling 2, given that number rolled is even

P (2/even numbers) = ____1/6_____ = 1/6 = 1/3

1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 3/6

Probability in Prediction and Analysis of Genetic Data

II. Binomial Expression: (p + q)n

Where: p = is the probability of a birth of a girl,

q = probability of a birth of a boy
n = is the number of children

Example: (p + q)3 = 1p3 + 3p2q + 3pq2 + 1q3

The coefficients refer to the numerator above.

Example: (p + q)5 = 1p5 + 5p4q + 10p3q2 + 10p2q3 + 5pq4 + 1q5

Each term tell us the probability of an event.

In a family of five P (3girls, and 2 boys)

= 10p3q2 = 10 (1/2)3 (1/2)2 = 5/16

Pascal’s Triangle

1
1 1
1 2 1
1 3 3 1
1 4 6 4 1
1 5 10 10 5 1

The general rule for repeated trials of event:

n_ psqt
 s!t!

where, event A = p, event B = q, s + t = n and p + q = 1

Example: The mating between heterozygous parents produces an expected ratio

of 3:1. Probability of a child showing dominant trait = p = ¾, and recessive trait
q = ¼. How often a families of eight would contain exactly 6 dominant and 2
recessive. In this case n = 8, s = 6, t = 2

8! (p)6 (q)2 = 8! = 1*2*3*4*5*6*7*8 (3/4)6 (1/4)2= 0.31

6! 2! 6! = (1*2*3*4*5*6) x 2! = (2*1)

= 56/2 = 28 (0.177957)(0.0625) = 0.31

III. Chi-squared Method: Evaluate observed results with the

theoretical expectations

Calculation of X2 for a monohybrid ratio

Phenotype Observed Expected Deviation from (Deviation)2

(Class) number number expected number Expected number

Wildtype 99 108 -9 0.75

Mutant 45 36 +9 2.25

Total 144 144 0 X2 = 3.0

At .08, the hypothesis is good.

Goodness of Fit: Critical values of P are 0.05 (5 % level) and .01 (1% level)

Chance alone would lead to worse fit between 1 to 20 and 1 to 100

(region B). If the p value falls in this range, correctness of genetic
hypothesis is doubtful. The result is significant at 5% or 1% (C region),
hypothesis is rejected outright.

SAMPLE PROBLEMS
1. The Hopi Zuni, and some other Southwest American Indians have a
relatively high frequency of albinism (absence of skin pigment) resulting
from homozygosity for a recessive allele, a. A normally pigmented man
and woman, each having an albino parent have two children. What is the
probability that both children are albino. What is the probability that at
least one of the children is albino.

2. Assume that the trihybrid crosses AABBrr x aabbRR is made in a plant

species in which A and B are dominant but there is no dominance
between R and r. In the F2 progeny of this cross, assuming independent
assortment: (a) how many phenotypic classes are expected (b) what is
the probability of aabbRR genotype. (c) what proportion of the progeny
would be expected to be homozygous for all three genes?

3. Assuming equal sex ratios, what is the probability that a sibship of four
children consists entirely of boys? Of all boys or all girls? of equal number
of boys and girls?

4. Assuming equal numbers of boys and girls, what is the probability that a
family with two children will have two girls? One girl and one boy? two
boys?

5. If an allele R is dominant over r, how many different phenotypes are

present in the progeny of a cross between Rr and Rr, and in what ratio? If
there is no dominance between R and r, what ratio do we expect?

6. Black hair in rabbits is determined by a dominant allele B, and white hair

by homozygosity for a recessive allele b. Two heterozygotes mate and
produce a litter of three offspring. What is the probability that exactly two
of three offspring will be white?