Probability

1. In a high jump competition, jumpers are allowed three attempts to succeed at each height.
For one particular height Imran estimates his chances of succeeding as follows.

• The probability that he will succeed on his first attempt is

• If he fails on his first attempt, the probability that he will succeed on his second attempt

is
• If he fails on his first two attempts, the probability that he will succeed on his third
attempt is p.

Use Imran’s estimates to answer the following.

(i) Complete the below probability tree diagram for this situation. [2]

First attempt

Find the probability that Imran succeeds on either his first or his second attempt. [3]
(ii)

(iii) [3]
Given that the probability that Imran succeeds at this particular height is , find p.

2. In a class of 30 students, each student studies exactly one modern language. 14 students
study French, 9 students study Spanish and 7 students study German. A committee of 6
students is to be chosen from these 30 students. Find the number of ways of choosing the
committee if it contains

(i) any 6 students from the class, [1]

(ii) 2 students studying each language, [2]

(iii) exactly 1 student studying French. [3]

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 Probability
3. Sandra makes repeated, independent attempts to hit a target. On each attempt, the
probability that she succeeds is 0.1.

i. Find the probability that

a. the first time she succeeds is on her 5th attempt,

[2]

b. the first time she succeeds is after her 5th attempt,

[2]

c. the second time she succeeds is before her 4th attempt.

[4]

Jill also makes repeated attempts to hit the target. Each attempt of either Jill or Sandra is
independent. Each time that Jill attempts to hit the target, the probability that she succeeds is
0.2. Sandra and Jill take turns attempting to hit the target, with Sandra going first.

ii. Find the probability that the first person to hit the target is Sandra, on her
a. 2nd attempt,

[2]

b. 10th attempt.

[3]

4. i. A bag contains 12 black discs, 10 white discs and 5 green discs. Three discs are
drawn at random from the bag, without replacement. Find the probability that all three
discs are of different colours.

[3]

ii. A bag contains 30 red discs and 20 blue discs. A second bag contains 50 discs, each
of which is either red or blue. A disc is drawn at random from each bag. The
probability that these two discs are of different colours is 0.54. Find the number of red
discs that were in the second bag at the start.

[4]

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 Probability
5. The probability distribution of a random variable X is given in the table.

x 1 2 3
P(X = x) 0.6 0.3 0.1

Two values of X are chosen at random. Find the probability that the second value is greater
than the first. [3]

6. A random variable X has probability distribution given by

(a) Find P(X > 39). [2]

(b) Given that x is even, determine P(X <10). [6]

7. The probability distribution of a random variable X is given in the table.

(a) Find the value of p. [2]

(b) Two values of X are chosen at random. Find the probability that the product of these
[3]
values is 0.

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 Probability
8. The discrete random variable X takes values 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5, and its probability distribution is
defined as follows.

where a is a constant.

(a) [2]
Show that .

The discrete probability distribution for X is given in the table.

(b) Find the probability that X is odd. [1]

Two independent values of X are chosen, and their sum S is found.

(c) Find the probability that S is odd. [2]

(d) Find the probability that S is greater than 8, given that S is odd. [3]

Sheila sometimes needs several attempts to start her car in the morning. She models the
number of attempts she needs by the discrete random variable Y defined as follows.

for all positive integers y.

(e) Find P(Y = 1). [2]

Give a reason why one of the variables, X or Y, might be more appropriate as a model
(f)
for the number of attempts that Sheila needs to start her car.
[1]

9. Bag A contains 3 black discs and 2 white discs only. Initially Bag B is empty. Discs are
removed at random from bag A, and are placed in bag B, one at a time, until all 5 discs are in
bag B.
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 Probability

(a) Write down the probability that the last disc that is placed in bag B is black. [1]

Find the probability that the first disc and the last disc that are placed in bag B are
(b) [2]
both black.

Find the probability that, starting from when the first disc is placed in bag B, the
(c) number of black discs in bag B is always greater than the number of white discs in
bag B. [4]

10. Each of the 30 students in a class plays at least one of squash, hockey and tennis.

• 18 students play squash

• 19 students play hockey
• 17 students play tennis
• 8 students play squash and hockey
• 9 students play hockey and tennis
• 11 students play squash and tennis

(a) Find the number of students who play all three sports. [3]

A student is picked at random from the class.

(b) Given that this student plays squash, find the probability that this student does not
[1]
play hockey.
Two different students are picked at random from the class, one after the other, without
replacement.

(c) Given that the first student plays squash, find the probability that the second student [4]
plays hockey.

11. Joanne has five cards, numbered 1, 1, 1, 2, 2. She picks two cards at random, without
replacement. The variable X denotes the sum of the numbers on the two cards.

(a) [2]
Show that
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 Probability

The table shows the probability distribution of X.

Joanne replaces the two cards. Now Liam picks two cards at random from the five cards,
without replacement. The variable Y denotes the sum of the numbers on the two cards that
Liam picks.

(b) Find P(X = Y). [2]

END OF QUESTION paper

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 Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

1 i All correct lines & probs OR B1 Allow extra “probs”

labels lines with includes
no probs 1–p
given,
B1
All correct lines & probs & or prob = 0 Ignore
labels [2] given, for products at
B1B1 end, if
shown
No need for
labels “2nd Instead of p
attempt” &
and “3rd 1 – p, allow
attempt” 0.7 & 0.3 or
incorrect p
& –p from
SC: One (iii)
line
omitted, all
probs and NOT q
labels instead of
given on 1–p
other lines
B1B0

Examiner’s Comments
Some candidates omitted
some probabilities or some
labels. A few gave extra
branches, with probabilities
on them.

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 Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii

M2 prod of
2 P’s or

1– prod of
2 P’s M1

M1M0A0
A1
No ft from

[3]
tree diag.

Examiner’s Comments
Many candidates answered
this q uestion correctly. A
few omitted the probability
of
succeeding on the first
attempt and just

found . Others
considered both first
and second attempts, but
incorrectly just

added .

iii M1

any correct M1d

step, one oe in
decimals

fract each side

Dep 1st M1

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 Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ft from tree
A1 diag for
M1M1, not
A1
M1

oe M1

A1

[3]
or similar
arithmetic
methods

Examiner’s Comments
Many candidates gave a
correct equation involving p,
but some were unable to
handle the ensuing algebra.
Not many used the slightly
more efficient method,
using 1 – P(three failures).
Some correctly saw that
they could use their answer
to
part (ii) as part of the
method, but many

wrote Others
considered
only the third attempt,
giving

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 Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

Total 8

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 Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

2 i If P used instead of C B0 427518000

consistently in all parts M1A0 550368
attempted (at least two M1M1A0 7338240
parts attempted)
B1 or 594000
593775 (3 sf)
[1]
Examiner’s Comments
Some candidates misread
this question to mean "Find
the probability . . ." rather
than "Find the number of
ways . . .". These
candidates could gain a
maximum of 3 marks
altogether for all three
parts. The same maximum
applied for those who used
permutations instead of
combinations.
Most candidates answered
this question correctly. A
few just found 30!.
14
ii C2 × 9C2 × 7C2 alone M1
M1A0
MR: ÷ 30C6

= 68796 A1 or 68800 (3
sf)
[2]
Examiner’s Comments
A common error was
addition of the three correct
combinations, instead of
multiplication.

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 Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

iii 14 (or 14C1) or 14 × alone M2 or M1 for 14×(9C5+9

× 16C5 4368 either C4x7
16
C5 or +9C3×7C2
4368 seen +9C2×
7
C3+9x7C4
+7C5) M2

or 14 (or NOT 14 +
14
A1 C1) × any ….. : M0M0
= 61152 no. seen
[3] MR: ÷ 30C6
or 61200 (3
sf) M2A0

Examiner’s Comments
Arithmetical errors were
common in the otherwise
correct, but very long,
method of adding six
products of combinations.
Candidates who used the
direct method (14C1 × 16C5)
were more likely to obtain
the correct answer. Some
candidates, incorrectly,
found 14C1 × 30C5 or 14C1 ×
29
C5. Others added 14C1 +

16
C5.

Total 6

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 Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

3 i (a) 0.9× 0.8 × 0.1 M1

i A1 Examiner's Comments

Most candidates answered

this correctly, although a
few gave 0.95 × 0.1.

i (b) 0.95 M1 Allow 0.94 or 1 – 0.95: M1 1 – (0.1 × +0.9 × 0.1 + 0.92

but 1 – 0.9n (n ≠ 5) or 0.1 × × 0.1 + …0.94 × 0.n
0.9n: M0 or 0.59 (2 sf)

i Al Examiner's Comments Allow without “1 –” OR omit

last term
Geometric distribution NB 0.95 × 0.1 = 0.0590
questions involving “before” MOAO
or “after” often cause
problems. Candidates are
confused as to whether a “1
–” is needed. Others think
that since it is a geometric
situation, “× p” must be
included. Also sometimes
there is confusion over the
power. In fact most
candidates answered this
question correctly, with a
few giving 0.94 or 1 – 0.95
or 0.95 × 0.1. Some used
the long method (ie the
complement method), but
(as usual) a few of these
omitted a term or added an
extra term.

i (c) 0.1 × 0.1 or [0.1 × 0.1 × M1 3 × 0.12 × 0.9 + 0.r no

0.9 + 0.1 × 0.1 × 0.1] oe incorrect multiples

i + 0.1 × 0.9 × 0.1 oe M1 M1M1 two correct terms, no M2 for 1st term; M1 for 2nd
incorrect multiples

i + 0.9 × 0.1 × 0.1 oe M1 M1 all correct

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 Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

i = 0.028 A1 Ans 0.027 probably This method only scores

M0M1M1A0 but check using “1 – ”: 0.93; 3 × 0.92 ×
working 0.1 no incorrect multiples
Ml; Ml
1 – one or both terms with
no further wking: M1(dep
M1)
eg 1 – 0.93 alone M1M0M1

i SC if no M-mks scored:
SSF, SSS, FSS, SFS
or SS, FSS, SFS seen or
implied: B1

Examiner's Comments

Only a few candidates used

the simplest method which
involves SS, FSS, SFS.
Few candidates answered
this question totally
correctly although many
gave partially correct
answers. Some gave only
0.12 × 0.9. Many gave 3 ×
0.12 × 0.9 but omitted +
0.13. Many included terms
such as 0.1 × 0.92. Some
used the complement
method, but most of these
only gave 1 – 0.93, omitting
to subtract 3 × 0.92 × 0.1
also.

ii (a) 0.9× 0.8 × 0.1 M1 alone or allow × 0.8 (ie girls NOT 0.9 × 0.8 × 0.1 × 0.2 =
in wrong order) 0.0144: MOAO

ii A1 (= 0.0576) NOT 0.9 × 0.8 × 0.2 =

0.144: MOAO
Examiner's Comments

This question was well

answered by most
candidates. A few misread
and thought Jill went first.
Others included success for
the wrong girl or for both
girls.

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 Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii (b) 0.99 or 10 × 0.8yorlu × 0.1 M1 allow 0.99 or 10 × 0.89 0r 10×

(or × 0.2, not × 0.1 × 0.2) 0.1 × 18,19,20C1If ans =
0.00360 or 0.0150 see SC
below

ii (0.9 × 0.8)9 × 0.1 oe M1 fully correct

ii = 5.2 × 10–3 or 0.0052 (2 sf) A1 SC Consistent use of 0.8

for both girls: (ii)(a) 0.128
(ii)(b) 0.00360
or 0.9 for both girls: (ii)(a)
0.081 (ii)(b) 0.0150 If both
these ans seen, allow (a) 0
(b) B1

Examiner's Comments

Many candidates were

confused as to how many
failures were necessary for
each girl. Others included
success for the wrong girl
or for both girls.

Total 13

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 Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

4 i 12 × 10 × 5 (in numerators M1 or 12C1 × 10C1 × 5C1 or 600

or alone) (in numerators or alone)
OR any prod of 3
probs×6(or ×3! or 3P3)

i M1 or eg ( Fully correct method

)
˟3

i A1 Examples:
oe or 0.205 (3 sfs)

Examiner's Comments

Many candidates correctly

found but either

failed to multiply by 6 or
multiplied by an incorrect
number, such as 3 or 4 or
12. Some added the three
fractions instead of
multiplying. A few added
12, 10 and 5 incorrectly,
and so started with a
denominator of, eg, 25
instead of 27. Some did the
question “with
replacement”.

ii M1 0.4 × p OR 0.6 × (1 – p) or
similar

ii M1 0.4 × p + 0.6 × (1 – p) =
0.54

ii 4x = 60 oe, two terms A1 p = 0.3

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 Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

ii no. of red = 15 A1 no. of red = 15

T & I: Allow x = 15 as answer, but
or etc OR one trial not if contradicted later
(n ≠ 15) M1
Trial of n = 15 M1A1 If x↔(50 – x) or p ↔ (1 – p):
Answer stated A1 similar mks
including 1st A1 for p = 0.7
or x = 35
Correct answer scores full
marks unless clearly from
incorrect method.

Examiner's Comments

Many candidates were able

to form an algebraic term

such as ,

but most then either

equated this term alone to
0.54 or added it to a term

such as ,

using the same letter for

both unknowns. Some
realised that the second
unknown was not the same
as the first and wrote, for

example,

However, few realised that

there was a second
simultaneous equation,
namely x + y = 50. The
better scoring candidates

.wrote an equation such as

A few candidates muddled

red and blue, writing a
correct equation such

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 Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

and correctly finding x = 35,

but then gave their answer
as 35 red discs, rather than
15. A few candidates used
a trial and improvement
method, some with
success. Several gave an
incorrect answer of 16 red
discs, being deceived by
the fact that this value does
give a probability of 0.54,
although only when
rounded to 2 significant
figures.

Total 7

5 0.6 × 0.3 or 0.6 × 0.1 or 0.3 M1 Any correct OR

× 0.1 (AO3.1a) product seen, M1
oe 0.62 +
0.32 +
0.12 (=
M1 0.46)
0.6 × 0.3 + 0.6 × 0.1 + 0.3 × (AO1.1) Fully correct
0.1 oe A1 method M1 0.5 ×
(AO1.1) (1-‘0.46’)
= 0.27
[3]

Total 3

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 Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

6 a M1(AO1. Attempt at
1) evaluating
P ( X = 40)
A1(AO1.
1)

[2]

b M1(AO3. Attempt Σ Numerical

1a) probabilitie sums may
s of all be
A1(AO1. even evaluated
1) values BC
Correct throughout
A1(AO1. expression
1)

M1(AO1.
1)

Attempt Σ
A1(AO3. probabilitie
2a) s for
X = 2, 4,6,8

B1(AO2.
1)
For a clear
solution
allowing
the line of
reasoning
to be
followed,
[6]
with each
component
of the
conditional
probability
found
clearly

Total 8

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 Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

7 a M1 oe eg
(AO1.1a)

A1
or 0.0625 (AO1.1)
Examiner’s Comments
[2]
Most candidates answered
this question correctly. A
few tried to use Σxp instead
of Σp.

b
M1 or eg or
or seen oe (AO1.1a)
M2
ft their p

M1 ft their p or
oe
(AO2.1)

Allow0.61
or 0.609 (3 sf)) A1
(AO1.1)
M2
[3]
Examiner’s Comments

Most candidates scored

only one mark because
they omitted one or two of
the three possible routes to
obtaining a product of 0.

Total 5

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 Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

8 a

soi M1 (AO or
3.1a) oe seen

A1 (AO correctly
1.1) obtained

[2]
Examiner’s Comments

This question was well

answered on the
whole, although a few
candidates used the
probabilities in the table,
just finding

b or 0.677 or B1 (AO
0.68 (2 sf) 1.1a)

[1]

Examiner’s Comments
This question was well
answered.

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 Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

c P(sum odd) = P(OE) +

P(EO)
M1 (AO or correct Allow
2.1) "long" without "2
method ×"

A1 (AO
or 0.437 or 0.44 (2 1.1)
sf)
[2]

Examiner’s Comments
Some candidates did not
see that their answer to part
(b) could be used, and
started from scratch using
the probabilities in the table.
Many of these omitted at
least one possible pair, and
others included all possible
pairs, but omitted to double
their answer. A few
candidates ignored the
probabilities (and their
answer to part (b)) and
assumed the each value of
X is equally likely.

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 Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

d P(Sum > 8 & odd) = P(Sum

= 9)
or P(> 8) ×
= P(4, 5) + P(5, 4) P(O | > 8)

M1 (AO Correct
1.1a) method

M1 (AO Attempt
2.4) ft their (c)
and their
P(Sum > 8
& odd)
A1 (AO
or 0.00952 or 1.1)
0.0095 (2 sf)
[3] cao
M0M1A0

Examiner’s Comments
Most candidates recognised
the need to find P(S = 9),
but some omitted to include
both 4, 5 and 5, 4 . Many
then correctly divided by
their answer to part (d).

e M1 (AO
3.4)

P(X = 1) = 0.5 A1 (AO Correct

3.4) ans, no
working
[2] M1A1

Examiner’s Comments
Some candidates
recognised the need for an
infinite series, but most
could not cope with the fact
that the first term is
unknown. Many candidates
thought that Y cannot be 0,
hence P(Y = 0) = 0 and
hence
P(Y = 1) = 0.5 – 0 = 0

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 Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

f Eg Y. (Y takes all values, oe, eg Y. It

but) X cannot be > 5 may take
more than
Eg X because > 5 is very B1 (AO 5 attempts
unlikely 3.5b) or "limited
no." oe
[1] instead of 5

Examiner’s Comments
A choice of either X or Y
with a reasonable
justification was acceptable.
Some candidates felt that it
was unrealistic for Sheila to
go on trying after five
attempts, so X is the better
model. Others said that she
might well need more than
five attempts so Y is the
better model. One
ingenious answer was that
X is better, because it gives
a higher chance of the car
starting first time!
Unfortunately, this answer
did not deal with the
question as to which model
is more appropriate. A
common incorrect response
was that Y is a good model
because according to Y the
probability that the car
starts decreases, rather
than increases, with each
attempt. Others stated that
Y is not a good model,
quoting exactly the same
reason. Some answers did
not include a choice of
either X or Y. Another
answer was that model Y
implies that the car never
starts. Many answers

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 Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

seemed to imply that using

model X, the probabilities
do not decrease.

Total 11

9 a B1
(AO1.1)
[1]

b M1 o
(AO1.1a)
r

A1 o
(AO1.1)
[2] r

c BBB, BBWB M1 With no

(AO3.1b) extras
M1
(AO2.1)
M1
o
(AO1.1a) M1 for
A1 each r
= oe (AO1.1) correct
[4] product of
probs

Total 7

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 Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

10 a Attempt to represent B1(AO3. Any OR

information e.g. by Venn 3) equivalent B1
diagram with x in centre method
and 3 other correct values
in terms of x M1(AO3.
M1
4)
Attempt total (in terms of x)
= 30 E1(AO1.
1) Or the
number
x = 4 so n(S H T) = 4 [3] doing all
three is 4.
E0 for just
x=4

b oe B1FT(AO FT their (a)

2.2a)

[1]

c B1(AO2.
2a)

B1(AO2.
2a)

M1(AO2. All correct

2a)

A1(AO1.
1)

[4]

Total 8

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 Probability

Question Answer/Indicative content Marks Part marks and guidance

11 a M1(AO1.
1)

A1(AO1. Must see

1) this step

[2]

b M1(AO1.
1a)

A1(AO1.
1)

[2]

Total 4

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