NAME : SAAD SALEEM
SEMESTER: 6TH
ROLL NUMBER: L1F21BS IR 0098
TOPIC: SECURITY DILEMMA IN SOUTH CHINA
SEA: ROLE OF MAJOR POWERS
SUBMITTED TO: SIR MEHRAN
INTRODUCTION
South China Sea
According to the International Hydrographic Organization, the South China Sea lies south of
mainland China and Taiwan; north of Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei; east of the Philippines;
and west of Vietnam.14 It is an area of about three million square kilometers of water. The
seabed area of the South China Sea consists of about one million square kilometers of
continental shelf. There are more than 200 islets, rocks and reefs in the area; most of them are
not suitable for human habitation. Due to its rich natural resources and strategic location, the area
has become of economic and security importance in the region. The Spratly and Paracel Islands
consist of more than 100 small islands and reefs that are surrounded by rich fishing grounds, and
more importantly, the potential of large gas and oil deposits. They are claimed in their entirety by
China, Taiwan, and Vietnam, with portions being claimed by Brunei, Malaysia and the
Philippines.
Dr
Over the last 10 years, the conflict in the South China Sea has been constantly in the spotlight.
As China builds islands in the middle of the South China Sea, once underwater reefs have
become sandy islands with airfields, roads, buildings, and bases for missile systems. In less than
two years, China has turned seven reefs into seven military bases, making the South China Sea
one of the most contentious areas of sea in the world (Damn, 2020).
Security Dilemma
The security dilemma refers to a situation in international relations where one state's efforts to
enhance its security are perceived as threatening by other states, leading to a spiral of mistrust,
arms races, and heightened tensions. It arises from the inherent uncertainty about other states'
intentions, which can cause defensive actions to be interpreted as offensive or aggressive,
triggering countermeasures and escalating security concerns.
IMPORTANCE OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
The South China Sea is arguably the most significant body of water. It is one of the most
strategic waterways in the world. These waterways are important for the passage of military and
commercial vessels, especially large tankers. Thus, its importance extends to claimant countries,
but also to international trade. The presence of valuable resources, such as oil, gas reserves, and
abundant fisheries, further intensifies competition and conflicts. It is thought to be the transit
point for one-third of all shipping worldwide annually, accounting for somewhat more than 25%
of total trade volume and slightly less than 25% of total trade value (China Power Project, 2017).
A minimum of 3.7 million people depend on the South China Sea for their livelihoods, and the
region is home to about 3,365 species of marine fish, which account for 12% of the world's catch
caught by 55% of the fishing fleet worldwide (Fridtjof Nansen Institute, 2017). These fish are an
essential source of nutrition for littoral states. Reliable data on the oil and gas deposits beneath
the South China Sea are difficult to come by, but they are undeniably considerable (Dass, 2018).
Strategically, it connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans and is located near the eastern end of the
Strait of Malacca, one of the world's two busiest narrows and a critical chokepoint (US Energy
Information Administration, 2014; United Nations Conference on Trade and Development,
2017). China's sole port for its ballistic missile submarine fleet, Yulin Naval Base, is located on
the southern edge of Hainan Island, making the South China Sea an important bastion for China's
strategic nuclear deterrent (Cook, 2017). . Thanks to these aspects, the South China Sea is a
contested maritime area which is subject to claims of partly possession by five countries
currently.
SECURITY DILEMMA IN SOUTH CHINA SEA
Territorial disputes in the South China Sea have a long history, but tensions have escalated
recently. China's extensive claims, including sovereignty over land masses and surrounding
waters, have sparked anger among rival claimants such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan,
Malaysia, and Brunei. These countries have also asserted ownership over islands and specific
areas within the sea, like the Paracels and the Spratlys. China has supported its claims through
activities like constructing islands and conducting naval patrols. While the US maintains a stance
of neutrality in such disputes, it has conducted military operations near contested islands under
the banner of "freedom of navigation." Additionally, Japan, despite not having direct interests in
the South China Sea, has provided support to claimants like Vietnam and the Philippines by
supplying ships and military equipment. These factors contribute to a volatile environment where
defensive actions are perceived as threats, escalating tensions and risking conflict.
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
The main conflict in the South China Sea dates back to 1279, when China drew a territorial map
of its influence that included the entire South China Sea. Since then, control over the region has
changed hands between regional powers and, later, colonial states. However, most people agree
that the bulk of the current problems stem from the 1951 San Francisco Treaty, which followed
Japan’s defeat in World War II. Within the terms of its surrender, Japan gave up its rights to its
islands in the South China Sea, leaving a power vacuum in the region. No country was explicitly
granted sovereignty over these waters, and China (the Kuomintang Government) asserted its
advantage by submitting the now infamous “nine-dotted line” claim covering almost the entire
South China Sea in 1947. This line became its official claim and is known today as the “Nine-
Dash Line” (Khoury, E., 2017). In 1982, the United Nations law established the exclusive
economic zones (EEZs). Right after, China reiterated its nine-dash line, refusing to clarify the
limits of this line and rejecting the claims of other claimant countries.
CLAIMS ON SOUTH CHINA SEA
Basis of Brunei Darussalam's Claim
Brunei Darussalam does not claim any of the islands, but claims part of the South China Seas
nearest to it as part of its continental shelf and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). In 1984, Brunei
declared an EEZ that includes Louisa Reef.21 Louisa Reef lies about 120 miles northwest of the
Brunei coastline and 408 miles from Vietnam. According to J. Ashley Roach of the Center of
Naval Analysis describes it as a quadrilateral reef with sides about 1.2 miles long with a number
of rocks on its surface. The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea gave way for Brunei to claim
part of the area due to its continental shelf argument giving it rights to the islands under the
Convention. Brunei asserts that the southern part of the Spratly chain is actually a part of its
continental shelf, and therefore, is its territory and resources.
Basis of Malaysia's Claim
Malaysia asserts claims over parts of the South China Sea based on the continental shelf,
territorial sea, exclusive economic zone (EEZ), and extended continental shelf. The dispute
dates back to 1979, pre-UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. Malaysia controls three disputed
islands and aims for the entire chain, citing clear coordinates and continental shelf principles. It
has even attempted to expand one atoll using mainland soil, rooted in the Law of the Sea
Convention. Agreements with Indonesia and Brunei, influenced by colonial legacies, delineate
maritime boundaries and EEZs, shaping Malaysia's territorial stance. Basis of Republic of
China's (Taiwan) Claim
Taiwan's argument is the same as that of China, from a historical perspective. Taiwan
has maintained a garrison on the biggest of the islands, Itu Aba since 1956. It claimed
the island based on its assertion that Taiwan and its Kuomintang government is the true
China. Since Taiwan claims to be the true China, it believes the Spratly's belong to them
and not to the People's Republic of China. Their main concern is that China alone or
China and Vietnam will gain control and thus, have a monopoly on the South China
Sea. Chinese nationalists (The Kuomintang), set foot on the Spratly Islands on
December 1946 and occupied the most important island: Itu Aba, the largest island in the
Spratly chain. Since then Taiwan continue to occupy Itu Aba. Thus, Taiwan, as the
Republic of China (ROC), claims exactly the same territories as the People’s Republic of
China.
Basis of the Philippines Claim
The Philippines' territorial claims focus on Scarborough Shoal and the Kalayaan island group in
the Spratly Islands. The historical background includes the Spanish-American War, leading to the
cession of lands to the United States and later to the Philippines. The Philippines asserts rights
based on proximity, economic need, and historic abandonment by other nations. They claim clear
coordinates for the islands and have made legal submissions under the UN
Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Tensions with China, especially over
Scarborough Shoal and Mischief Reef, have led to conflicts since the late twentieth century.
Basis of Vietnam's Claim
Vietnam, like China, claims ownership of the entire Spratly Islands and the Paracel Islands. They
argue historical dominion dating back to 1650 and cite the San Francisco Allied-Japanese Peace
Conference in 1951, where Japan relinquished rights to the islands. Vietnam also asserts its
claims under the Law of the Sea's continental shelf principle. The French colonial era further
strengthens their argument, as Vietnam considers itself the inheritor of French possessions in the
region. Vietnam's parliament passed a maritime law in 2012 to reaffirm its claims, particularly in
response to Chinese actions in the South China Sea.
China’s stance
The primary concern of the South China Dispute lies at China’s “tongue-like nine dashed lines”
that is construed through the South China Sea, in areas where several other countries dispute
their claims. China maintains that, under international law, foreign militaries cannot conduct
intelligence-gathering activities, such as reconnaissance flights, in its exclusive economic zone
(EEZ). According to the United States, claimant countries, under the UN Convention of the Law
of the Sea (UNCLOS), should have freedom of navigation through EEZs in the sea and are not
required to notify claimants of military activities. In July 2016, the Permanent Court of
Arbitration at The Hague ruled on a claim brought against China by the
Philippines under UNCLOS, ruling in favor of the Philippines on almost every count. While
China is a signatory to the treaty establishing the tribunal, it refuses to accept the court’s
authority. In recent years, satellite imagery has shown China’s increased efforts to reclaim land in
the South China Sea by physically increasing the size of islands or creating new islands
altogether. In addition to piling sand onto existing reefs, China has constructed ports, military
installations, and airstrips—particularly in the Paracel and Spratly Islands, where it has twenty
and seven outposts, respectively. China has militarized Woody Island by deploying fighter jets,
cruise missiles, and a radar system.
UNCLOS
In a complex region such as the South China Sea, it is important to have well established and
recognizable rules of international law. In this regard, the 1982 Treaty of Montego Bay, part of
the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), constitutes a turning point in
the dispute over the South China Sea. Together with the many concepts and rules put forward by
UNCLOS, the treaty establishes the rights of a sovereign state over the continental shelf
surrounding it and the creation of exclusive economic zones (EEZs). As such, it forms a primary
and prominent source of international law for dealing directly with the conflict (Poling, 2013). .
Before UNCLOS, different rules applied, but UNCLOS made things fairer by giving each
country specific rights and limits in the ocean. For example, it said countries could only claim
certain areas near their shores as their own. It also said islands could have special ocean areas
around them, but rocks or small islands couldn't. UNCLOS didn't talk about who owns which
islands, so that's still a separate issue
ROLE OF EXTERNAL POWERS
INVOLVEMENT OF US
For the United States, the South China Sea is an important area of the Asia-Pacific region for
three reasons: 1) it is part of a major transit route for maritime commercial traffic to and from
East Asia and for the United States Navy; 2) disputes over the ownership of its many small
islands, reefs, atolls, and rocks among China and several nearby Southeast Asian states
(including one United States ally, the Philippines) are generating tensions that could result in
conflict and instability; and 3) Beijing could eventually use its growing influence in the area to
create a sphere of influence detrimental to United States interests. These factors justify United
States attention to events occurring in the South China Sea, and a set of policies designed to
ensure access and transit, prevent or minimize tensions, and support the peaceful and legally
based management of local disputes. The United States, which maintains important interests in
ensuring freedom of navigation and securing sea lines of communication (SLOCs), has
expressed support for an agreement on a binding code of conduct and other confidence-building
measures. China’s claims threaten SLOCs, which are important maritime passages that facilitate
trade and the movement of naval forces. To protect its political, security, and economic interests
in the region, the United States has challenged China’s assertive territorial claims and land
reclamation efforts by conducting freedom of navigation operations and bolstering support for
Southeast Asian partners. Washington’s defense treaty with Manila could draw the United States
into a potential China-Philippines conflict over the substantial natural gas deposits or lucrative
fishing grounds in disputed territory.
INVOLVEMENT OF JAPAN
Japan's alliance with the United States is central to its security strategy, leading to joint exercises
and close collaboration on maritime security issues. Japan strongly supports international law,
advocating for the peaceful resolution of disputes based on UNCLOS and opposing unilateral
actions that escalate tensions. Economically, Japan has interests in the region's trade routes and
invests in infrastructure development and economic [Link] response to China’s assertive
presence in the disputed territory, Japan has sold military ships and equipment to the Philippines
and Vietnam to improve their maritime security capacity and to deter Chinese aggression.
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
China prefers bilateral negotiations with the other parties. But many of its neighbors argue that
China's relative size and clout give it an unfair advantage. Some countries have argued that
China should negotiate with Asean (the Association of South East Asian Nations), a 10-member
regional grouping that consists of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore,
Brunei, Laos, Vietnam, Myanmar and Cambodia. However, China is opposed to this, while
Asean is also divided over how to resolve the dispute. The Philippines has sought international
arbitration instead. In 2013, it announced it would take China to an arbitration tribunal under the
auspices of the UN Convention on the Laws of the Sea, to challenge its claims. In July 2016, the
tribunal backed the Philippines' case, saying China had violated the Philippines' sovereign rights.
China had boycotted the proceedings and called the ruling "ill-founded". It says it will not be
bound by it.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Resolving the South China Sea conflict requires a multifaceted approach that prioritizes
dialogue, adherence to international law, and regional cooperation. Encouraging diplomatic
negotiations among claimant states and stakeholders, particularly within existing frameworks
like ASEAN, is crucial for promoting mutual understanding and peaceful dispute resolution.
Emphasizing the principles of UNCLOS and advocating for responsible behavior in the maritime
domain can help reduce tensions and avoid escalatory actions. The development and adoption of
a binding Code of Conduct (COC) between ASEAN and China would provide a framework for
conflict prevention and resolution, backed by transparency measures and confidence-building
initiatives. Strengthening regional cooperation on maritime security, economic development, and
environmental protection can further contribute to a stable and prosperous South China Sea
region. Engaging neutral third parties and fostering people-to-people exchanges can complement
these efforts, fostering trust, enhancing dialogue, and promoting long-term peace and stability in
the area.
REFERENCES
Damn, M.J. (2020). Introduction to South China Sea military capability studies, South China Sea
military capability series, July, 2020.
China Power Project (2017) How much trade transits the South China Sea? China Power (27
October). Available at: [Link]
Fridtjof Nansen Institute (2017) Fish, not oil, at the heart of the South China Sea conflict (24
October). Available at: [Link]
seaconflict-article1556–[Link]
Daiss T (2018) How oil drives the South China Sea conflict. [Link] (14 March). Available
at: [Link]
[Link]
U.S. Energy Information Administration (2014) World oil transit chokepoints (25 July). Available
at: [Link]
hokepoints/[Link]
Cook D (2017) A closer look at China’s critical South China Sea submarine base. The Diplomat
(18 March). Available at: [Link]
china-sea-submarine-base/
Poling, G.B. (2013). “The South China Sea in focus: Clarifying the limits of maritime dispute”, Center for
strategic & international studies, July, 2013, [Link]
[Link]/s3fspublic/legacy_files/files/publication/
130717_Poling_SouthChinaSea_Web.pdf