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Chapter 2: Probability

Identify sample spaces and events, and use basic

rules to calculate the probability of an event

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Chapter 2: Probability
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. Sample Spaces and Events
2. Interpretations of Probability
3. Addition Rules
4. Conditional Probability
5. Multiplication and Total Probability Rules
6. Independence
7. Bayes’ Theorem

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Sample Spaces
Definition Random experiment
• An experiment that can result in different outcomes,
even though it is repeated in the same manner every
time, is called a random experiment.
• The set of all possible outcomes of a random
experiment is called the sample space of the
experiment. The sample space is denoted as S.
• An event is a subset of the sample space of a random
experiment.

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Sample spaces Sample spaces and events

Example
Random experiment: Roll a die
Sample space: S ={1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Event: E1 = {Die is even}={2, 4, 6}
E2 = {Die is odd}={1, 3, 5}

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Sample spaces Sample spaces and events

Tree Diagrams
Sample spaces can also be described graphically with
tree diagrams.
– When a sample space can be constructed in
several steps or stages, we can represent each of
the n1 ways of completing the first step as a
branch of a tree.
– Each of the ways of completing the second step
can be represented as n2 branches starting from
the ends of the original branches, and so forth.

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Sample spaces Sample spaces and events

Example
A probability experiment consists of tossing a
coin and then rolling a six-sided die. Describe the
sample space.
Tree diagram:

H1 H2 H3 H4 H5 H6 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6

The sample space has 12 outcomes:

S = {H1, H2, H3, H4, H5, H6, T1, T2, T3, T4, T5, T6}
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Sample spaces and events

Example
Each message in a digital communication system is classified
as to whether it is received within the time specified by the
system design. If three messages are classified, use a tree
diagram to represent the sample space of possible outcomes.

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Sample spaces Sample spaces and events

Basic Set Operations
The union of two events is the event that consists of all
outcomes that are contained in either of the two events.
We denote the union as E1E2.
The intersection of two events is the event that consists
of all outcomes that are contained in both of the two
events. We denote the intersection as E1E2.
The complement of an event in a sample space is the set
of outcomes in the sample space that are not in the event.
We denote the component of the event E as E’.

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Sample spaces Sample spaces and events

Venn Diagrams
mutually exclusive

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Sample spaces Sample spaces and events

Important properties:
A  (B  C) = (A  B)  C
A  (B  C) = (A  B)  C
A  (B  C) = (A  B)  (A  C)
(A  B)’ = A’  B’
(A  B)’ = A’  B’
A = (A  B)  (A  B’)

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Probability Interpretations of Probability

Introduction
There are three approaches to assessing the probability of an
uncertain event:
1. a priori classical probability: the probability of an event
is based on prior knowledge of the process involved.

2. empirical classical probability: the probability of an event

is based on observed data.

3. subjective probability: the probability of an event is

determined by an individual, based on that person’s past
experience, personal opinion, and/or analysis of a
particular situation.

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Probability Interpretations of Probability

Equally Likely Outcomes
Whenever a sample space consists of N possible outcomes that are
equally likely, the probability of each outcome is 1/N.

1. a priori classical probability

X number of ways the event can occur

Probability of Occurrence  
T total number of possible outcomes
2. empirical classical probability

number of favorable outcomes observed

Probability of Occurrence 
total number of outcomes observed

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Probability Interpretations of Probability

Example priori classical probability
Find the probability of selecting a face card (Jack, Queen,
or King) from a standard deck of 52 cards.

X number of face cards

Probability of Face Card  
T total number of cards

X 12 face cards 3
 
T 52 total cards 13

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Probability Interpretations of Probability

Example empirical classical probability
Find the probability of selecting a male taking statistics
from the population described in the following table:

Taking Stats Not Taking Stats Total

Male 84 145 229
Female 76 134 210
Total 160 279 439

number of males taking stats

Probabilit y of Male Taking Stats 
total number of people
84
  0.191
439
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Probability Interpretations of Probability

Axioms of Probability
Probability is a number that is assigned to each member of a
collection of events from a random experiment that satisfies the
following properties:
If S is the sample space and E is any event in a random experiment,
(1) P(S) = 1
(2) 0 ≤ P(E) ≤ 1
(3) For two events E1 and E2 with E1∩E2 = Ø
P(E1  E2) = P(E1) + P(E2)

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Addition Rules Addition Rules

The special addition rule
1. If A and B are mutually exclusive events,
P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B)
2. A collection of events, E1, E2, …, Ek is said to be
mutually exclusive if for all pairs,
Ei ∩ Ej = Ø
For a collection of mutually exclusive events,

P(E1  E2 …  Ek) = P(E1) + P(E2) +…+ P(Ek)

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Addition Rules
Addition Rules
The general addition rule

1. Two events: A and B are any events,

P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A ∩ B)

2. Three events:

P(A  B  C) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A ∩ B)

- P(B ∩ C) - P(C ∩ A) + P(A ∩ B ∩ C)

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Addition Rules Addition Rules

Example
Find the probability of selecting a male or a statistics
student from the population described in the following
table:
Taking Not Taking Total
Stats Stats
Male 84 145 229
Female 76 134 210
Total 160 279 439

P(Male or Stat) = P(M) + P(S) – P(M and S)

= 229/439 + 160/439 – 84/439 = 305/439
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Example
John is going to graduate from an industrial engineering department
in a university by the end of the semester. After being interviewed at
two companies he likes, he assesses that his probability of getting an
offer from company A is 0.8, and his probability of getting an offer
from company B is 0.6. If he believes that the probability that he will
get offers from both companies is 0.5, what is the probability that he
will get at least one offer from these two companies?

Solution: Using the additive rule, we have

P  A  B   P  A  P  B   P  A  B 
 0.8  0.6  0.5  0.9

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Example
What is the probability of getting a total of 7 or 11 when a pair of fair
dice is tossed?

Solution: Let A be the event that 7 occurs and B the event that 11
comes up.
 P(A) = 6/36 and P(B) = 2/36.
The events A and B are mutually exclusive, since a total of 7 and
11 cannot both occur on the same toss. Therefore,

P  A  B   P  A  P  B 
1 1 2
  
6 18 9

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Example
If the probabilities are, respectively, 0.09, 0.15, 0.21, and 0.23 that a
person purchasing a new automobile will choose the color green,
white, red, or blue, what is the probability that a given buyer will
purchase a new automobile that comes in one of those colors?

Solution: Let G, W, R, and B be the events that a buyer selects,

respectively, a green, white, red, or blue automobile. Since these four
events are mutually exclusive, the probability is

P  G  W  R  B  P  G   P  W   P  R   P  B 
 0.09  0.15  0.21  0.23  0.68

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Example
If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic will service 3, 4, 5,
6, 7, or 8 or more cars on any given workday are, respectively, 0.12,
0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10, and 0.07, what is the probability that he will
service at least 5 cars on his next day at work?

Solution: Let E be the event that at least 5 cars are serviced. Now,
P(E) = 1 - P(E’), where E’ is the event that fewer than 5 cars are
serviced. Since

P  E '  0.12  0.19  0.31

P  E   1  P  E '  1  0.31  0.69

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Conditional Pro. Conditional Probability

To introduce conditional probability, consider an example
involving manufactured parts.

Let D denote the event that a part is defective and let F denote the
event that a part has a surface flaw.

Then, we denote the probability of D given, or assuming, that a

part has a surface flaw as P(D|F). This notation is read as the
conditional probability of D given F, and it is interpreted as the
probability that a part is defective, given that the part has a surface
flaw.

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Conditional Pro.
Conditional Probability
Example 2-17(page 32)

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Conditional Pro. Conditional Probability

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Conditional Pro. Conditional Probability

Definition
The conditional probability of an event B given an event
A, denoted as P(B|A), is
P(B|A) = P(B ∩ A)/P(A)
for P(A) > 0.
Special case: all outcomes are equally likely

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Conditional Pro.
Conditional Probability
Example

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Conditional Probability
Example

Note that in this example all four of the following

probabilities are different:

Here, P(D) and P(D|F) are probabilities of the same

event, but they are computed under two different states
of knowledge. Similarly, P(F) and P(F|D) are computed
under two different states of knowledge.

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Conditional Pro.
Conditional Probability
Example
Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air conditioning
(AC) and 40% have a CD player (CD). 20% of the cars
have both.
What is the probability that a car has a CD player, given
that it has AC?

CD No CD Total
P(CD and AC)
P(CD | AC) 
AC 0.2 0.5 0.7 P(AC)
No AC 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2
  .2857
0.7
Total 0.4 0.6 1.0

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Conditional Pro.
Conditional Probability
Example
The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is
P(D) = 0.83; the probability that it arrives on time is P(A) = 0.82;
and the probability that it departs and arrives on time is P(D ∩ A) =
0.78. Find the probability that a plane
(a) arrives on time, given that it departed on time,
(b) departed on time, given that it has arrived on time.

P  D  A  0.78
P  A | D    0.94
P  D 0.83
P  D  A  0.78
P D | A    0.95
P  A 0.82

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Conditional Pro.
Conditional Probability
Example
Consider an industrial process in the textile industry in which strips
of a particular type of cloth are being produced. These strips can be
defective in two ways, length and nature of texture. For the case of
the latter, the process of identification is very complicated. It is
known from historical information on the process that 10% of strips
fail the length test, 5% fail the texture test, and only 0.8% fail both
tests. If a strip is selected randomly from the process and a quick
measurement identifies it as failing the length test, what is the
probability that it is texture defective?

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Conditional Pro.
Conditional Probability
Solution:
Consider the events
L: length defective, T: texture defective
Given that the strip is length defective, the probability that this strip
is texture defective is given by
P T  L  0.008
P T | L    0.08
P  L 0.1

Thus, knowing the conditional probability provides considerably

more information than merely knowing P(T).

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Multiplication Rule

Theorem 2.10:
If in an experiment the events A and B can both occur, then
P(A ∩ B) = P(B)P(A|B) = P(A)P(B|A)

Theorem 2.12:
If, in an experiment, the events A1, A2, . . . , Ak can occur,
then
P(A1 ∩ A2 ∩ · · · ∩ Ak)
= P(A1)P(A2|A1)P(A3|A1∩A2) ··· P(Ak|A1∩A2∩···∩ Ak−1).

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Multiplication Rule

Example
The probability that an automobile battery subject to high engine
compartment temperature suffers low charging current is 0.7. The
probability that a battery is subject to high engine compartment
temperature is 0.05.
The probability that a battery is subject to low charging current and high
engine compartment temperature is

C={a battery suffers T ={a battery is subject to high

low charging current} engine compartment temperature}

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Multiplication Rule

Example
The probability that the first stage of a numerically controlled
machining operation for high-rpm pistons meets specifications is
0.90. Failures are due to metal variations, fixture alignment, cutting
blade condition, vibration, and ambient environmental conditions.
Given that the first stage meets specifications, the probability that a
second stage of machining meets specifications is 0.95. What is the
probability that both stages meet specifications?
Let A and B denote the events that the first and second stages meet
specifications, respectively. The probability requested is

P  A  B   P  A  P  B | A   0.9  0.95  0.855

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Example
Suppose that we have a fuse box containing 20 fuses, of which 5 are
defective. If 2 fuses are selected at random and removed from the
box in succession without replacing the first, what is the probability
that both fuses are defective?

We shall let A be the event that the first fuse is defective and B the
event that the second fuse is defective; then we interpret A ∩ B as
the event that A occurs and then B occurs after A has occurred. The
probability of first removing a defective fuse is 1/4; then the
probability of removing a second defective fuse from the remaining
4 is 4/19. Hence
1 4 1
P  A  B   P  A P  B | A   
4 19 19
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Example
One bag contains 4 white balls and 3 black balls, and a second bag
contains 3 white balls and 5 black balls. One ball is drawn from the
first bag and placed unseen in the second bag. What is the
probability that a ball now drawn from the second bag is black?

Let B1, B2, and W1 represent, respectively, the drawing of a black

ball from bag 1, a black ball from bag 2, and a white ball from bag
1. We are interested in the union of the mutually exclusive events B1
∩ B2 and W1 ∩ B2.

P  B1  B2  or W1  B2    P  B1  P  B2 | B1   P W1  P  B2 | W1 

3 6 4 5 38
    
7 9 7 9 63
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Example
Three cards are drawn in succession, without replacement, from an
ordinary deck of playing cards. Find the probability that the event
A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 occurs, where A1 is the event that the first card is a red
ace, A2 is the event that the second card is a 10 or a jack, and A3 is
the event that the third card is greater than 3 but less than 7.

We have
2 8 12
P  A1   , P  A2 | A1   , P  A3 | A1  A2  
52 51 50
and hence

P  A1  A2  A3   P  A1  P  A2 | A1  P  A3 | A1  A2 
2 8 12 8
   
52 51 50 5525
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Total Pro. Rule Total Probability Rule

Partition of an event

Figure 2-15
Partitioning an event
into two mutually
exclusive subsets.

Figure 2-16
Partitioning an
event into several
mutually
exclusive subsets.

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Total Pro. Rule Total Probability Rule

Total Probability Rule: two events

P(B) = P(BA) + P(BA’) = P(A)P(B|A) + P(A’)P(B|A’)

Total Probability Rule: multiple events

E1  E2  … Ek =S

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Example. Semiconductor Contamination

Consider the contamination discussion at the start of this

section. The information is summarized here

Let F denote the event that the product fails, and let H
denote the event that the chip is exposed to high levels of
contamination.
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Example 2-20 (page 35). Semiconductor Contamination

The requested probability is P(F), and the information

provided can be represented as

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Example

In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1, B2, and B3,

make 30%, 45%, and 25%, respectively, of the products. It
is known from past experience that 2%, 3%, and 2% of the
products made by each machine, respectively, are
defective. Now, suppose that a finished product is
randomly selected. What is the probability that it is
defective?

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Solution

Consider the following events:

A: the product is defective,
B1: the product is made by machine B1,
B2: the product is made by machine B2,
B3: the product is made by machine B3.
Applying the rule of elimination, we can write

P  A   P  B1  P  A | B1   P  B2  P  A | B2   P  B3  P  A | B3 
 0.3  0.02  0.45  0.03  0.25  0.02  0.0245

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Independence Independence
Definition
Two events is called independent if any one of the
following equivalent statements is true:
(1) P(A|B) = P(A)
(2) P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B)
(3) P(B|A) = P(B)

Proposition: If A and B are independent events, then

so are events A and B’, events A’ and B, and events A’
and B’.

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Independence Independence
Example 2-31 (page 52)
A day’s production of 850 manufactured parts contains 50 parts that do
not meet customer requirements. Two parts are selected at random,
without replacement, from the batch. Let A ={the first part is defective},
and let B ={the second part is defective}.
We suspect that these two events are not independent because knowledge
that the first part is defective suggests that it is less likely that the second
part selected is defective.
P(B|A) = 49/849
the two events
are not
independent, as
we suspected.

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Independence
Definition
The events E1, E2, …, En are independent if and only if for any
subset of these events E i1 , E i2 , ... , E ik

P ( E i1  E i2  ... E ik )  P ( E i1 ) P ( E i2 ) ... P ( E ik )

Exercise
Two coins are tossed. Let A denote the event “at most one head
on the two tosses,” and let B denote the event “one head and
one tail in both tosses.” Are A and B independent events?

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Independence
Example 2-24 Independence
The following circuit operates only if there is a path of functional
devices from left to right. The probability that each device functions is
shown on the graph. Assume that devices fail independently. What is the
probability that the circuit operates?

P(T B) = 1- P[(T B)’]

= 1-P(T’ ∩B’)

P(T’ ∩B’) = P(T’)P(B’)

= (1-0.95)2 =0.052

P(T B) = 1 - 0.052 =0.9975

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Example Independence
A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance available for
emergencies. The probability that the fire engine is available when
needed is 0.98, and the probability that the ambulance is available
when called is 0.92. In the event of an injury resulting from a
burning building, find the probability that both the ambulance and
the fire engine will be available, assuming they operate
independently.
Solution:
Let A and B represent the respective events that the fire engine and
the ambulance are available. Then

P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B) = (0.98)(0.92) = 0.9016.

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Bayes’ Theorem
Bayes’Theorem

If E1, E2, …, Ek are k mutually exclusive and exhaustive events

and B is any event,
P(B | E1 )P( E1 )
P( E1 | B) 
P( B | E1 )P( E1 )  P(B | E2 )P(E2 )  ... P( B | Ek )P(Ek )
for P(B)  0

In special case:

P( B | A) P ( A)
P( A | B)  for P ( B )  0
P( B)

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Bayes’ Theorem
Example
Suppose that P(A | B) = 0.7, P(A) = 0.5, and P(B) = 0.2.
Determine P(B | A).

P  B  P  A | B  0.2*0.7
P  B | A    0.28
P  A 0.5

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Bayes’ Theorem
Example
In a state where cars have to be tested for the emission of pollutants, 25%
of all cars emit excessive amount of pollutants. When tested, 99% of all
cars that emit excessive amount of pollutants will fail, but 17% of all cars
that do not emit excessive amount of pollutants will also fail. What is the
probability that a car that fails the test actually emits excessive amounts
of pollutants?

Let A the event that it emits excessive amounts of pollutants and B

denote the event that a car fails the test:
P(A) = 0.25, P(B|A) = 0.99 and P(B|A’) = 0.17.
We have to find P(A|B)?

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Bayes’ Theorem
P(A) P ( B | A)
P(A | B) 
P (B)
where
P(B) = P(A)P(B|A) + P(A’)P(B|A’)
= 0.25*0.99 + 0.75*0.17 = 0.375

Substitution into the formula for P(A|B) yields

P(A) P ( B | A) 0.25* 0.99

P(A | B)    0.66
P(B) 0.375

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Bayes’ Theorem
Example
Two events A and B are such that P[A∩B] = 0.15, P[A B]
= 0.65, and P[A|B] = 0.5. Find P[B|A].

Probability & Statistics

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Example Bayes’ Theorem

In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1, B2, and B3, make
30%, 45%, and 25%, respectively, of the products. It is known from
past experience that 2%, 3%, and 2% of the products made by each
machine, respectively, are defective. If a product was chosen
randomly and found to be defective, what is the probability that it was
made by machine B3?

Using Bayes’ rule to write

P  B3  P  A | B3 
P  B3 | A  
P  B1  P  A | B1   P  B2  P  A | B2   P  B3  P  A | B3 
0.25*0.02 10
 
0.0245 49
In view of the fact that a defective product was selected, this result
suggests that it probably was not made by machine B3.
Probability & Statistics
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Bayes’ Theorem
Example
A manufacturing firm employs three analytical plans for the design
and development of a particular product. For cost reasons, all three
are used at varying times. In fact, plans 1, 2, and 3 are used for 30%,
20%, and 50% of the products, respectively. The defect rate is
different for the three procedures as follows:
P(D|P1) = 0.01, P(D|P2) = 0.03, P(D|P3) = 0.02,
where P(D|Pj) is the probability of a defective product, given plan j. If
a random product was observed and found to be defective, which
plan was most likely used and thus responsible?

Probability & Statistics

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Bayes’ Theorem
From the statement of the problem
P(P1) = 0.30, P(P2) = 0.20, and P(P3) = 0.50,
we must find P(Pj|D) for j = 1, 2, 3. Bayes’ rule shows
P  P1  P  D | P1 
P  P1 | D  
P  P1  P  D | P1   P  P2  P  D | P2   P  P3  P  D | P3 
0.3*0.01 0.003
   0.158
0.3*0.01  0.2*0.03  0.5*0.02 0.019
Similarly
0.03*0.2 0.02*0.5
P  P2 | D    0.316 P  P3 | D    0.526
0.019 0.019
The conditional probability of a defect given plan 3 is the largest
of the three; thus a defective for a random product is most likely
the result of the use of plan 3
Probability & Statistics
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Bayes’ Theorem
Example
Customers are used to evaluate preliminary product designs. In the
past, 95% of highly successful products received good reviews, 60%
of moderately successful products received good reviews, and 10%
of poor products received good reviews. In addition, 40% of products
have been highly successful, 35% have been moderately successful,
and 25% have been poor products.
a. What is the probability that a product attains a good review?
b. If a new design attains a good review, what is the probability that it
will be a highly successful product?
c. If a product does not attain a good review, what is the probability
that it will be a highly successful product?

Probability & Statistics

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Let A1: product is highly successful,

A1: product is moderately successful,
A1: product is poorly successful,
B: product attains a good review
B’: product attains a bad review

a) P  B   P  A1  P  B | A1   P  A2  P  B | A2   P  A3  P  B | A3 
 0.4* 0.95  0.35*0.6  0.25*0.1  0.615

P  A1  P  B | A1  0.4*0.95
b) P  A1 | B     0.618
P  B 0.615

P  A1  P  B ' | A1  0.4* 1  0.95 

c) P  A1 | B '     0.052
P  B ' 1  0.615
Probability & Statistics