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Advanced Data Science Techniques Course

The Advanced Topics in Data Science course for the Master of Research in Economics, Finance and Management focuses on statistical and machine learning techniques relevant to economics, emphasizing Bayesian methods and high-dimensional data analysis. Students will gain skills in applying and presenting data analysis methods, with assessments including presentations, exercises, and a written report. The course is designed for MRes students with a background in statistical inference and basic R programming skills.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
16 views4 pages

Advanced Data Science Techniques Course

The Advanced Topics in Data Science course for the Master of Research in Economics, Finance and Management focuses on statistical and machine learning techniques relevant to economics, emphasizing Bayesian methods and high-dimensional data analysis. Students will gain skills in applying and presenting data analysis methods, with assessments including presentations, exercises, and a written report. The course is designed for MRes students with a background in statistical inference and basic R programming skills.

Uploaded by

hoang
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Advanced Topics in Data Science

2022-2023 Academic Year


Master of Research in Economics, Finance and Management

1. Description of the subject

● Advanced Topics in Data Science Code: 32282


● Total credits: 6 ECTS Workload: 150 hours
Term: 1st
● Type of subject: Elective
● Department of Economics and Business
● Teaching team: David Rossell
Advanced Topics in Data Science

2. Teaching guide

● Introduction
Statistical and Machine learning techniques are having a deep effect on many
disciplines, including Economics. Due to the increasing number of applications using
data science with techniques popular in Economics many World-leading institutions
incorporated data science in their PhD programs. As examples see the set of lectures
in the NBER Summer Institute by Guido Imbens and Susan Athey (in particular lecture
3, [Link]/econometrics_minicourse_2015/), the Big Data and machine
learning syllabus at the Harvard Economics PhD program
([Link] the Chicago Booth PhD
courses on Bayesian inference, Big Data and Machine Learning, or the Bocconi PhD
courses in text analysis, Econometrics of networks and causal analysis.

Data analysis methods are evolving to cope with increasingly challenging problems,
a case in point being high-dimensional situations where one considers a large
number of parameters or models. For instance, one may have a regression or factor
model where the number of covariates far exceeds the sample size, or may want to
simplify the interpretation of complex data via clustering, text or latent variable
analysis, or may want to predict an outcome using flexible algorithms. Engaging
effectively in such research, either from a methodological or applied perspective,
requires one to understand, and when needed modify or extend, such methodology.
Just as importantly, they need to communicate such ideas effectively to a potentially
non-expert audience.

The goal of this course is to introduce students to some foundations behind these
methods, with a certain emphasis on the Bayesian framework, penalized likelihood
and latent variable methods (e.g. as used in text analysis) methods, expose them to
and discuss research literature, and practice the skills needed for applying and
presenting novel research. The learning outcomes are an improved familiarity with
selected research topics in Statistics that are relevant for Data Science, at a level
sufficient to critically appraise, modify and apply novel methods, and improved oral
and written presentation skills. The course also intends to provide students with
applied data analysis skills useful for their MRes thesis and subsequent research work.

Pre-requisites: the course is designed for MRes students who are familiar with basic
Statistical inference, specifically linear regression and maximum likelihood estimation.
Basic R programming skills are beneficial, though examples and links to learning
resources will be provided for students who are not familiar with R.

● Contents

1. Foundations. We briefly review classical results from maximum likelihood


estimation and computational methods such as the bootstrap, and we introduce
the basic Bayesian paradigm for statistical inference, its use for model selection,

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Advanced Topics in Data Science

parameter estimation and prediction, and standard computational tools such as


Gibbs or Metropolis-Hastings.
2. Foundations of variable selection in high-dimensional regression. We review the
fundamental penalized likelihood and Bayesian frameworks for linear regression
models with a large number of variables, and for treatment effect estimation in
such settings. We shall discuss the relative merits of current strategies such as
LASSO, adaptive LASSO and related penalties to help decouple variable selection
from prediction and various Bayesian strategies to achieve good performance in
high dimensions. We will discuss theoretical and practical considerations and
computational strategies.
3. Beyond linear regression. We will extend the earlier strategies to settings where one
considers certain forms of causal inference, simple time series models,
generalized linear models, flexible models for count data, random forests and
Bayesian additive regression trees, or capturing non-linear relationships.
4. Mixture and flexible models. We shall move towards more flexible models enabled
by the use of latent variables. We will place some attention to mixture models and
some non-parametric methods. We shall discuss applications to mixture-of-
regressions models to account for unobserved confounders that may bias
inference, to hidden Markov models for time series and to text data analysis.

References. The books below provide a good introduction to a substantial part of


the topics covered in this course (and many others), however we shall complement
them with a number of additional selected research manuscripts.

● Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hals S. Stern, David B. Dunson, Aki Vehtari, Donald B.
Rubin. Bayesian Data Analysis (3rd edition). CRC Press, 2013.

● Trevor Hastie, Robert Tishirani, Martin Wainwright. Statistical learning with sparsity.
The LASSO and its generalizations. CRC press.

● Sara van de Geer, Peter Bühlman. Statistics for high-dimensional data: methods,
theory and applications. Springer, 2001.

● Nils Lid Hjort, Chris Holmes, Peter Müller, Stephen G. Walker. Bayesian non-
parametrics. Cambridge University Press, 2010.

● Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter. Finite mixture and Markov switching models. Springer,


2006.

Some papers on data science and economics:

● Chernozhukov, V., A. Belloni, C. Hansen (2014), "High-Dimensional Methods and

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Advanced Topics in Data Science

Inference on Treatment and Structural Effects in Economics", J. Economic


Perspectives

● Chernozhukov, V., D. Chen, A. Belloni, C. Hansen (2012), "Sparse Models and Methods
for Instrumental Regression, with an Application to Eminent Domain",
Econometrica

● Einav, L. y J. Levin (2014), “Economics in the age of big data,” Science, 346 (6210).

● Varian, H. (2014), “Big data: new tricks for econometrics,” Journal of Economic
Perspectives, 28 (2), 3-28.

● Teaching methodology

The course will be delivered in a combination of regular lectures, computer-based


seminars where students get hands-on experience with the taught data analysis
methods, and presentations by students (on published manuscripts chosen by the
students and on the final project).

● Assessment and Grading System

Students will be asked to orally present 2 research papers of their choice (40%
of the final mark), some selected exercises from the seminar sessions (10% of
final mark) and a written report (50% of the final mark). This project will be
decided by the students but must be pre-approved by the lecturer, and should
involve the application, critical assessment or extension of the research
methods seen in class. The content can be theoretical, empirical, a practical
application or a combination of the former.

Common questions

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Bayesian methods provide a comprehensive framework for parameter estimation and model selection by allowing for the incorporation of prior knowledge through the specification of prior distributions. These methods can handle complex models and yield full posterior distributions, thus offering richer information about parameter uncertainty than point estimates provided by classical methods like maximum likelihood estimation. Bayesian methods also facilitate model selection through techniques such as the Bayes factor. The usefulness in high-dimensional settings arises from their ability to incorporate prior distributions that can help regularize estimates, as seen with penalized likelihood approaches like LASSO in classical settings .

Penalized likelihood is crucial for variable selection in the context of high-dimensional data as it helps to manage complexity and avoid overfitting by imposing a penalty on the size of the coefficients. Techniques like LASSO use this principle to shrink some coefficients to zero, performing variable selection and regularization simultaneously. The course explores both classical and Bayesian frameworks of penalized likelihood to illustrate their efficiency and application in various regression contexts. This approach allows for the decoupling of variable selection from prediction and enhances the robustness of the model selection process .

The course's teaching methodology includes presenting papers and completing a final project, emphasizing the development of critical assessment and presentation skills. Students orally present research papers and engage in critical discourse, fostering analytical thinking and effective communication. Additionally, the final project's requirement to critically assess or extend course-taught methods enhances critical analysis skills. The assessment strategy, with a significant portion of the grade allotted to presentations and report writing, underscores the importance of these skills in the learning process .

The essential prerequisites for the course include familiarity with basic statistical inference, particularly linear regression and maximum likelihood estimation, as well as basic R programming skills. The course supports students with varying backgrounds by providing examples and links to learning resources for those not familiar with R. This structure enables a diverse range of students to engage with the coursework effectively, facilitating a supportive learning environment .

The Bayesian approach simplifies complex data analysis by providing a coherent framework for incorporating prior knowledge and handling uncertainty in parameter estimation. In the context of latent variable methods, Bayesian models can incorporate latent variables directly into the modeling process, facilitating the joint estimation of both observed and unobserved parameters. This enables more sophisticated modeling of relationships and dependencies in the data, such as in mixture models or hidden Markov models, where the identification of latent states is crucial for accurate inference. The Bayesian framework thus enhances the interpretability and robustness of analyses involving latent variables .

LASSO is effective for variable selection in high-dimensional settings by shrinking some coefficients to zero based on a penalty term, thus reducing model complexity and avoiding overfitting. However, it can be biased for large coefficients. Adaptive LASSO addresses this by assigning different penalty terms to each coefficient, usually based on preliminary estimates, allowing for consistent variable selection. While LASSO is computationally straightforward and effective in many cases, adaptive LASSO offers more accurate selection but requires an additional step of calculating adaptive weights, which might increase computational complexity .

The course integrates practical applications through computer-based seminars where students apply the taught data analysis methods. Additionally, students engage in presentations of published research manuscripts and complete a final project that requires them to apply, critically assess, or extend the research methods covered in class. This combination of theoretical instruction and practical application is designed to enhance students' skills in implementing data analysis techniques .

High-dimensional data can render traditional linear regression models ineffective due to issues like multicollinearity and overfitting, as the number of parameters can exceed the sample size, leading to unreliable estimates. Strategies to address these challenges include penalized likelihood methods such as LASSO, which apply a penalty on the coefficients to enforce sparseness and improve model generalization. Bayesian strategies are also employed, using prior distributions to regulate the estimation process. These methods help decouple variable selection from prediction, allowing for more robust inference in high-dimensional contexts .

Mixture models and latent variable methods provide flexibility in modeling complex datasets by capturing heterogeneity and unobserved variability among observations. Mixture models, for example, can address scenarios where the data come from multiple underlying subpopulations by allowing distinct probability distributions for each subgroup. Latent variable methods facilitate dimensionality reduction and structure discovery, aiding in tasks like clustering or dealing with text data. These models enhance the interpretive power of analyses and can be crucial for accounting for unobserved confounders, thus improving inference accuracy. The course covers their application to regression models and hidden Markov models to illustrate their utility .

The course ensures a balanced development of theoretical and practical skills by combining regular lectures with computer-based seminars where students apply taught methods. Students are also required to present and critique published research papers and undertake a final project, which can be theoretical, empirical, or a combination of both. This comprehensive approach ensures students not only understand the theoretical foundations but also gain hands-on experience in implementing and extending these methodologies in practical settings .

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