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Bayes' Theorem & Random Variables Tutorial

The document discusses Bayes' theorem and random variables. It provides an example of calculating conditional probabilities for deliveries by two couriers. It then asks to identify whether examples describe discrete or continuous random variables. Finally, it asks to define the probability mass function and plot a bar chart for the number of smartphones sold each day in a week.

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Herman Herman
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2 views2 pages

Bayes' Theorem & Random Variables Tutorial

The document discusses Bayes' theorem and random variables. It provides an example of calculating conditional probabilities for deliveries by two couriers. It then asks to identify whether examples describe discrete or continuous random variables. Finally, it asks to define the probability mass function and plot a bar chart for the number of smartphones sold each day in a week.

Uploaded by

Herman Herman
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Module MIS10090: Data Analysis for Decision Making

Week 5

Tutorial Questions: Bayes’ Theorem and Random Variables

Question 1.

Let’s consider a company that outsources the delivery of its products to two different courier
services, A and B. Usually, the company relies on A for 82% of its deliveries, while on B for the
remaining 18%. A delivery can be either fulfilled (F) or not fulfilled (N). Historical data show that the
probability of a delivery to be fulfilled given that it has been performed by courier A is equal to 97%,
while the probability of a delivery to be fulfilled given that it has been performed by courier B is
equal to 92%.

What are the probabilities that:

● Courier A provides a delivery, given that it is fulfilled?

● Courier B provides a delivery, given that it is fulfilled?

Question 2.

For each of the following, please decide whether it is a DRV (i.e., discrete random variable) or a CRV
(i.e., continuous random variable):

a) Kilometres travelled by a random car parked on the street


b) Outcome of a Champions League match
c) Number of Gym visits during a week
d) Stocks of a company to be sold each day

Question 3.

The manager of a telephone shop has decided to monitor the sales of smartphones week by week.
During the first week of February, 20 smartphones have been sold following this pattern:

Weekday Number of smartphones sold

Monday 1

Tuesday 2

Wednesday 3

Thursday 3

Friday 3

Saturday 4

Sunday 4
Please define the pmf (i.e., probability mass function) of the random variable X = {number of
smartphones sold in a week} and plot it on a bar chart in Excel.

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