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Regression Analysis Techniques for Engineers

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
27 views3 pages

Regression Analysis Techniques for Engineers

Uploaded by

Swapnil Patil
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

COEP Technogical University

Department of Mathematics
(MA- 21001) Probability and Statistics for Engineers
T.Y. B. Tech. Semester VI (Civil, Manufacturing and Metallurgy Engineering)
Academic Year 2023-24 (Spring Semester)
Course Coordinator: Dr. Yogita Mahatekar

1 Tutorial: Week 11
1. (a) What is simple linear regression?
(b) What is multiple linear regression?
(c) What is method of least squares?
(d) What is meant by a polynomial regression?
(e) Derive normal equations for the simple linear regression, multiple linear regres-
sion for two independent variables.
2. The raw material used in the production of a certain synthetic fiber is stored in a lo-
cation without a humidity control. Measurements of relative humidity in the storage
location and the moisture content of a sample of the raw material were taken over 15
days with the following data (in percentages) resulting.

relative humidity 46 53 29 61 36 39 47 49 52 38 55 32 57 54 44
Moisture content 12 15 7 17 10 11 11 12 14 9 16 8 18 14 12

Estimate regression line for above given data. ANS: regression line is Y = −2.51 +
0.32x
3. The following data relate x, the moisture of a wet mix of a certain product to Y the
density of the finished product.

xi 5 6 7 10 12 15 18 20
Yi 7.4 9.3 10.6 15.4 18.1 22.2 24.1 24.8

Fit a linear curve to this data. Plot a scatter diagram for this data. Predict density of
finished product when the moisture of a wet mix of certain product is 17.
4. A study conducted at VPI and SU to determine if certain static arm-strength measures
have an influence on the "dynamic lift" characteristic of an individual. Thirteen indi-
viduals were subjected to strength tests and then were asked to perform a weight lifting
test in which weight was dynamically lifted overhead. The data are given here:

individual 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
xi 17.3 19.3 19.5 19.7 22.9 23.1 26.4 26.8 27.6 28.1 28.2 28.7 29.0
yi 87.3 99.3 79.5 59.7 25.9 55.1 63.4 100.8 78.6 89.1 100.2 56.7 57.0
Estimate A and B for the regression line. Find point estimate of x = 30.

5. The grades of a class of 9 students on a midterm report (x) and on the final examination
(y) are as follows:

xi 77 50 71 72 81 94 96 99 67
Yi 82 66 78 34 47 85 99 99 68

(a) Estimate the linear regression line.


(b) Estimate the final grade of a student who received a grade of 85 on the midterm
report.

6. A study was made by a retail merchant to determine the relation between weekly ad-
vertising expenditures and sales. The following data was recorded.

Advertising Costs (Rs.) 40 20 25 20 30 50 40 20 50 40 25 50


Sales(Rs.) 385 400 395 365 475 440 490 420 560 525 480 510

(a) Plot a scatter diagram.


(b) Find equation of regression line to predict weekly sales from advertising expen-
ditures.
(c) Estimate weekly sales when advertising costs are Rs.35/−
(d) Plot residues versus advertising costs.

7. Student grades and classes missed for 7 students who took Statistics course is recorded
as below.

Student 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Final exam Grade (y) 85 74 76 90 85 87 94
Mid-Sem exam grade (x1 ) 65 50 55 65 55 70 65
Classes missed x2 1 7 5 2 6 3 2

(a) Fit the multiple linear regression equation of the form Y = b0 + b1 x1 + b2 x2


(b) Estimate approximate final grade for a student who has mid-sem exam score 60
and missed 4 classes.

8. Fit a least square line to the data given below using x as the independent variable.
.
x 1 3 4 6 8 9 11 14
y 1 2 4 4 5 7 8 9
9. State whether the following statements are True or False and justify your answers.
.

(a) The estimated simple linear regression equation maximizes the sum of the squared
deviations between each value of y and the line.
(b) Slope of the linear function is equal to the change in independent variable divided
by the corresponding change in the dependent variable.
(c) Method of least squares is used to fit a least square line to given finite number of
x values and corresponding y values. Then (x̄, ȳ) always lie on the least square
line.
X
(d) Sum of squares of residues SSR = (Yi − A − Bxi )2 is a chi-squared distri-
i
bution with (n − 1) degrees of freedom.
10. In quality control concerned with any manufacturing process, What is meant by assignable
cause and what is chance variation? What is control chart and upper control limit
(UCL) and lower control limit (LCL)?
11. Assume that items produced are supposed to be normally distributed with mean 35
and standard deviation 3. To monitor this process, subgroups of size 5 are sampled. If
the following represents the averages of the first 20 subgroups, does it appear that the
process was in control?
Sample 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
X̄ 34 31.6 30.8 33.0 35 32.2 33 32.6 33.8 35.8
Sample 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
X̄ 35.8 35.8 34 35.0 33.8 31.6 33 33.2 31.8 33.6

12. Consider Markov chain with three states, S = {1, 2, 3} that has the transition matrix

1 1 1

2 4 4
P = 1 0 2
.
3 3
1 1
2 2
0

(a) Draw the state transition diagram for this chain.


(b) If we know P (X1 = 1) = P (X1 = 2) = 14 , find P (X1 = 3, X2 = 2, X3 = 1).

13. Consider the stochastic process so called ’random telegraph process’. This is a discrete-
state continuous-time process {X(t)|; −∞ < t < ∞} with the state space {−1, 1}.
Assume that these two values are equally likely: P [X(t) = −1] = 12 = P [X(t) =
1], −∞ < t < ∞.
(a) Find µ(t) = E(X(t)). Is it independent of t?
(b) Find autocorrelation function R(0) = E(X 2 (t)).
(c) Is this random telegraph process stationary in wide-sense? Justify.
Consider the given system which represents two-state Marcov Chain: Suppose that
whether it rains tomorrow depends on previous weather conditions only through whether
it is raining today. Suppose further that if it is raining today, then it will rain tomor-
row with probability α and if it is not raining today, then it will rain tomorrow with
probability β. If we say that system is in state 0 when it rains and state 1 when it does
not, find transition probabilities of this Marcov chain and hence write its transition
probability matrix. Draw the state transition diagram for this chain.

Common questions

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The slope of a linear regression model signifies the rate of change in the dependent variable for a one-unit increase in the independent variable. It quantifies the strength and direction of the relationship between variables; a positive slope indicates a direct relationship, while a negative slope indicates an inverse relationship. The slope helps in understanding how changes in the predictor variable affect the outcome variable, thus playing a crucial role in predicting and interpreting data trends .

In linear regression, the normal equations are derived by setting the partial derivatives of the sum of squared residuals with respect to the regression coefficients to zero. For simple linear regression, the normal equations solve for 'a' (intercept) and 'b' (slope) by computing these estimates based on the relationships Σ(Yi) = n*a + b*Σ(Xi) and Σ(XiYi) = a*Σ(Xi) + b*Σ(Xi^2), where Xi and Yi are the data points . For multiple regression with two independent variables, similar extensions apply but involve additional terms for each variable.

The linear equation Y = -2.51 + 0.32x implies that for every percentage point increase in relative humidity, the moisture content tends to increase by 0.32 percentage points. This suggests a positive linear relationship where relative humidity is a significant predictor of moisture content. The intercept -2.51 indicates that when humidity is zero, the predicted moisture content would be theoretically negative, which signals that the equation might only be valid within a practical range of humidities .

In Markov chains, transition matrices are derived by analyzing the probabilities of moving between states over one time step. Each element in the matrix represents the probability of transitioning from one state to another, ensuring that the sum of probabilities in each row equals one. State diagrams visually represent these transitions using nodes and arrows, where nodes represent states and arrows denote possible transitions between them, labeled by the transition probabilities . These tools are crucial for understanding the stochastic behavior of systems over time, allowing for predictions about future state distributions and decision-making under uncertainty .

Control charts are used in quality control to monitor manufacturing processes and ensure they remain stable and predictable. The upper and lower control limits (UCL and LCL) are statistically determined boundaries that define process variability. These limits are set typically at three standard deviations above and below the process mean, reflecting the normal variation in process output . If data points fall outside these limits, it suggests an assignable cause is disrupting normal operations, potentially indicating a need for corrective actions .

A random telegraph process is stationary in the wide-sense if its mean and autocorrelation function do not change with time. Since the mean, µ(t), which equals E(X(t)), is constant over time because both states are equally probable, it satisfies one condition of wide-sense stationarity. Moreover, if the autocorrelation function R(t1, t2) depends only on the difference t1 - t2 and not on the individual times t1 and t2, then the process is wide-sense stationary. For the random telegraph process with binary states, this can typically be the case, thus justifying its stationarity in the wide-sense .

The method of least squares works by minimizing the sum of the squares of the differences between observed and predicted values of the dependent variable. Essentially, it finds the best-fitting line through the data by adjusting the line's slope and intercept to achieve the smallest possible sum of squared errors, ensuring that the regression line represents the data as accurately as possible .

Simple linear regression involves one independent variable predicting a dependent variable, forming a relationship expressed as Y = a + bX, where 'a' is the intercept and 'b' is the slope . Multiple linear regression involves two or more independent variables predicting a dependent variable, forming a relationship expressed as Y = a + b1X1 + b2X2 + ... + bnXn, where 'b1, b2,..., bn' are the coefficients for each independent variable . This allows multiple factors to influence the outcome, providing a more complex and nuanced model of prediction.

The statement that the sum of squares of residues (SSR) follows a chi-squared distribution with (n-1) degrees of freedom is accurate in the context where residuals are normally distributed errors with a known variance. SSR essentially measures the variation of observations around the predicted values by the regression line and when accumulated, forms part of the total variance expressed as chi-squared distribution in the context of hypothesis testing, helping assess the goodness-of-fit of the model .

To fit a least squares line to a dataset, one would calculate the line that minimizes the sum of squared differences between observed y-values and those predicted by the line. This approach involves calculating the best estimates for the intercept and slope using formulas derived from the normal equations in linear regression. This method is preferred due to its ability to provide an optimal fit line by statistically minimizing prediction errors, making it widely applicable to solve problems across data analytical fields .

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