0% found this document useful (0 votes)
37 views16 pages

Probability Concepts and Exercises Guide

Uploaded by

Tasniim
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as RTF, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
0% found this document useful (0 votes)
37 views16 pages

Probability Concepts and Exercises Guide

Uploaded by

Tasniim
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as RTF, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Statistics Chapter 4 – Probability

Progress Check Preparation

Questions

Q1.

The Venn diagram shows the events A, B, C and D, where p, q, r and s are probabilities.

(a) Write down the value of


(i) P(A)
(ii) P(AΙB)
(iii) P(AΙC)
(3)

(b) find the exact value of q and the exact value of r


(6)

(c) find the exact value of s


(2)

(Total for question = 11 marks)


Q2.

There are 7 red counters, 3 blue counters and 2 yellow counters in a bag. Gina selects a counter at
random from the bag and keeps it. If the counter is yellow she does not select any more counters. If the
counter is not yellow she randomly selects a second counter from the bag.

(a) Complete the tree diagram.

(2)
Given that Gina has selected a yellow counter,

(b) find the probability that she has 2 counters.


(3)

(Total for question = 5 marks)


Q3.

In the Venn diagram below, A, B and C are events and p, q, r and s are probabilities.

The events A and C are independent and P(A) = 0.65

(a) State which two of the events A, B and C are mutually exclusive.
(1)
(b) Find the value of r and the value of s.
(5)
The events (A ∩ C ' ) and (B ∪ C ) are also independent.

(c) Find the exact value of p and the exact value of q. Give your answers as fractions.
(6)

(Total for question = 12 marks)


Q4.

The events H and W are such that

Given that H and W are independent,

(a) show that P(W) =


(4)
The event N is such that

(b) Find P
(2)
Given that W and N are mutually exclusive,

(c) draw a Venn diagram to represent the events H, W and N giving the exact probabilities of each region
in the Venn diagram.
(5)
(Total for question = 11 marks)
Q5.
The Venn diagram shows the events A, B and C and their associated probabilities.

Find

(a) P(B') (1)

(b) P(A ∪ C) (2)

(c) P(A | B') (2)

(Total for question = 5 marks)

Q6.

The Venn diagram shows the events A, B and C and their associated probabilities, where p and q are
probabilities.

(a) Find P(B) (1)

(b) Determine whether or not A and B are independent. (2)

Given that P(C | B) = P(C)

(c) find the value of p and the value of q (3)

The event D is such that

 A and D are mutually exclusive


 P(B ∩ D) > 0

(d) On the Venn diagram show a possible position for the event D (1)
(Total for question = 7 marks)
Q7.

A factory produces shoes.

A quality control inspector at the factory checks a sample of 120 shoes for each of three types of defect.
The Venn diagram represents the inspector's results.
A represents the event that a shoe has defective stitching
B represents the event that a shoe has defective colouring
C represents the event that a shoe has defective soles

One of the shoes in the sample is selected at random.

(a) Find the probability that it does not have defective soles.
(1)
(b) Find P(A ∩ B ∩ C′)
(1)
(c) Find P(A ∪ B ∪ C′)
(2)
(d) Find the probability that the shoe has at most one type of defect.
(2)
(e) Given the selected shoe has at most one type of defect, find the probability it has defective stitching.
(2)
The random variable X is the number of the events A, B, C that occur for a randomly selected shoe.

(f) Find E(X)


(3)

(Total for question = 11 marks)


Q8.

A disc of radius 1 cm is rolled onto a horizontal grid of rectangles so that the disc is equally likely to land
anywhere on the grid. Each rectangle is 5 cm long and 3 cm wide. There are no gaps between the
rectangles and the grid is sufficiently large so that no discs roll off the grid.

If the disc lands inside a rectangle without covering any part of the edges of the rectangle then a prize is
won.

By considering the possible positions for the centre of the disc,

(a) show that the probability of winning a prize on any particular roll is
(3)
A group of 15 students each roll the disc onto the grid twenty times and record the number of times, x,
that each student wins a prize. Their results are summarised as follows

(b) Find the standard deviation of the number of prizes won per student.
(2)
A second group of 12 students each roll the disc onto the grid twenty times and the mean number of
prizes won per student is 3.5 with a standard deviation of 2

(c) Find the mean and standard deviation of the number of prizes won per student for the whole group of
27 students.
(7)
The 27 students also recorded the number of times that the disc covered a corner of a rectangle and
estimated the probability to be 0.2216 (to 4 decimal places).

(d) Explain how this probability could be used to find an estimate for the value of π and state the value of
your estimate.
(3)

(Total for question = 15 marks)


Mark Scheme

Q1.
Q2.
Q3.
Q4.
Q5.
Q6.
Q7.
Q8.

Common questions

Powered by AI

Mutually exclusive events ensure that each outcome can be distinctly categorized without overlap, important for clear probability distribution sums to one. Independent events, defined by one event not influencing another, allow multiplication of individual probabilities to find joint probabilities. Both concepts ensure comprehensive statistical coverage, maintaining internal distribution consistency .

Standard deviation quantifies variability in outcomes from repeated experiments, such as rolling a disc. It measures how much individual results deviate from the average score, thereby indicating consistency and reliability of the process. For groups rolling a disc, comparing standard deviations offers insight into variability and helps in improving precision .

In a Venn diagram, mutually exclusive events are those that cannot occur simultaneously. This means that the probability of their intersection is zero. For independent events, the occurrence of one event does not affect the occurrence of another, so the probability of their intersection is the product of their probabilities, i.e., P(A ∩ C) = P(A) * P(C). These principles help simplify calculations by establishing clear conditions for overlaps (or lack thereof) in diagram regions .

In a factory setting, probabilities help assess the likelihood of defects and therefore the quality of products. For instance, defining events such as a shoe having defective stitching or coloring allows calculation of probabilities using Venn diagrams to assess the overlap of defects. This statistical analysis can quantify issues and guide quality improvements .

Estimates of probabilities, such as the disc covering a rectangle's corner, can be used indirectly to estimate the value of π. Given geometric constraints and probabilities of coverage relative to circle size, statistical methods such as the Monte Carlo method can approximate π through frequency of observed events against total trials .

Venn diagrams allow visual representation and calculation of probability for overlapping defect types in quality control. They clarify intersections and unions of events, making it possible to calculate probabilities for combined defect scenarios or exclusivity. This visibility aids in understanding probabilities' interactions across different defect inspections .

The probability of a shoe having at most one defect type involves calculating scenarios where a single type of defect is present or none are present. This is derived by summing probabilities of independent single-defect events and no-defect events from the quality control sample set and subtracting overlapping probabilities .

In multi-stage experiments, the probability of subsequent outcomes depends on previous outcomes — drawing without replacement alters the sample space. Such conditional probability adjustments highlight dependence on initial decisions, affecting overall likelihoods and outcomes. This dynamic adjustment requires recalculating for each condition posed by the initial draw .

Expected value in quality control inspections arises when analyzing the probability distribution of defects per item. For example, if a quality control inspector finds defects with different probabilities across defect types, expected value provides the average number of defects expected per item sampled. This metric is crucial for anticipating quality issues and resource allocation .

Tree diagrams are useful for sequence probability scenarios as they visually represent possible outcomes and their probabilities. For instance, when selecting counters from a bag, they can show the different paths based on the outcome of each selection. This aids in calculating the total probability of compound events accurately, such as keeping or discarding a counter based on color .

You might also like