Objective Tree Analysis to Identify the “Ideal State”

1. Introduction: Describing the “Ideal State”

We’ve learned in the previous modules and exercises that designing a project requires us to understand the
complexity of the problems we want to solve with the proposed project. We learned that a thorough,
evidence-based understanding of the problem will reveal “leverage points;” these are the direct or indirect
driving factors that we may be able to influence to bring about a positive change in the core problem. But
in addition to thinking about the problem, we also need to think about the solution and the pathway for
moving between the “problem state” and the “solution state”.

All projects need to have an objective. The objective represents a set of conditions that the project puts in
place to facilitate a change in the core problem. We can think of these conditions as the “ideal
state.” Different funders have different terms for this; some refer to this as the “preferred solution” while others
may use the term “alternative scenario.” But all of these terms refer generally to the same thing: the future
conditions that your project will bring about. Similar to how the direct causes in the problem tree “enable”
the core problem, these future conditions can be thought of as the conditions that enable your project’s
objective to be achieved.

This exercise will build on the problem tree that you developed in Module 2. By this point, your problem tree
should illustrate a comprehensive picture of the core problem, its direct and indirect driving factors, and its
effects. This picture should be supported by evidence from a variety of sources, including stakeholder
consultations, a review of relevant studies, and other information. The problem tree should also incorporate
information about how different groups are affected differently by climate change. And it should also clearly
indicate “leverage points,” these are the parts of the problem tree’s roots that you may have some influence
over. In other words, your problem tree should be a complete description of the “problem state.”

The next step is fairly straightforward. We will use this tool to convert the “problem state” to the “ideal
state.” The ideal state describes all of the conditions that will be in place if the project is successful. This will
clearly illustrate the transformation that the project needs to make happen and will help us to develop our
theory of change.

Tool 4-1: Objective Tree Analysis to Identify the “Ideal State”

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 2. The Objective Tree

Once the problem has been clearly mapped out and the relationships between the different levels have
been verified, the next step is to convert the problem tree to an objective tree.1 The objective tree describes
the desired future situation and is a step towards designing what the project will do. It can help you determine
the outputs, outcome, and impact of your project. The concept behind the objective tree is simple: convert
the problems you identified in your problem tree into objectives by turning the problem statements into
enabling conditions for the ideal state (see Table 1, below). In general, the objective tree mirrors the problem
tree (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: Converting your problem tree to an objective tree

1 The term “solution tree” is also used in some instances.

Tool 4-1: Objective Tree Analysis to Identify the “Ideal State”

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Table 1: Problem and objective statements

Problem Statement Objective Statement

Houses are not resilient to extreme weather events and Houses are made more resilient to extreme weather
flooding. events and flooding.

Reduced agricultural yields. Improved agricultural yields.

High incidence of waterborne disease. Reduced incidence of waterborne disease.

Climate-smart agricultural practices do not exist in the Climate-smart agricultural practices are adopted by the
community. community.

No plan for sustainable land management at the

Sustainable land management plan drafted.
community level.

Evacuation centers are not accessible to local Evacuation centers are now accessible to local
communities. communities.

To Build an Objective Tree, Follow these Steps:

Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4

Convert development Identify the direct enabling Identify the indirect

Identify the
problems to desirable conditions contributing to enabling conditions for
desired result
conditions the desired result the development objective

Step 1: Identify the Desired Result

The desired result comes from the core problem you identified in your problem tree. Rephrase the core
problem statement so that it is the desired result that your project will bring about. This desired result will
become the overall goal/objective for your project. See Figure 2 (below) for an example. Remember that
your desired result should be realistically achievable within the limits of your project. If it is not, you may need
to revisit your problem tree to identify a more manageable problem.2

Step 2: Development Problems to Desirable Conditions

Next, start at the top of your problem tree, where you have already identified broader development
challenges associated with your core problem. Convert these into desirable conditions that the desired result
will contribute to. These broader positive effects correspond to the impacts of your project; your project will
not achieve these broader effects on its own, but if you successfully achieve your desired result, the project
should contribute to achieving these impacts. For example, a climate change adaptation project that helps

2In cases where you find that you need to revisit the problem tree, consider addressing one of the roots of the core problem you have identified, rather than the entire
core problem.

Tool 4-1: Objective Tree Analysis to Identify the “Ideal State”

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farmers to adopt climate-smart agricultural techniques will likely contribute to improved food security and
rural livelihoods, but it will not make these things happen all by itself.

Think carefully about how you phrase your desirable conditions; these new statements should be realistic and
achievable. Note that in some cases, when working on your objective tree, you may identify additional
information or considerations that need to be included in the problem tree. This is normal, but you should
avoid modifying your problem tree to align with the objectives tree you are developing without gathering
additional evidence to support the new parts of the problem tree.

For example, in Exercise 2-1 we examined GCF SAP #008, "Extended Community Climate Change Project
(ECCCP)" from Bangladesh one of the broader impacts from the core problem was "decreased quality of life."
This demonstrates how climate change impacts are contributing to the broader development challenges
facing the country. To turn this into a positive effect we hope will be realized as a result of our project, we
simply change this statement to “Improved quality of life” (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Desired result, direct, and indirect effects in the objective tree. Note that this objective tree mirrors the example problem tree
from Exercise 2-1.

Tool 4-1: Objective Tree Analysis to Identify the “Ideal State”

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Step 3: Identify the Direct Enabling Conditions Contributing to the Desired Result

On the next level below your new desirable conditions statements, rephrase the direct causes of the core
problem you have identified into factors that can lead to the desired result. You might need to add new
statements if they are necessary to achieve the desired conditions, but make sure that you have a solid
evidence base for anything that you add.

Step 4: Identify the Indirect Enabling Conditions for the Development Objective

Next, move to what you have determined to be the indirect drivers of the core problem, and rephrase them
so that they are now enabling conditions for the development objective (Figure 3). You will find that your
objective tree takes much less time to complete than your problem tree. However, it is equally important to
“test the logic” of your objective tree as it is with your problem tree. As you work through the direct and
indirect enabling conditions, reflect upon the causal relationships between the different levels. Make sure
that the indirect enabling conditions in the lower levels are sufficient to bring about the direct enabling
conditions in the higher levels. You may decide to invite various stakeholders to review the objective tree to
make sure that it makes sense.

Figure 3: Core objective, direct, and indirect enabling factors in the objective tree.

Tool 4-1: Objective Tree Analysis to Identify the “Ideal State”

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Figure 4: Conceptualized objective tree based on GCF SAP #008 “Extended Community Climate Change Project-Flood (ECCCP-Flood)”,
approved concept note for Bangladesh.
Tool 4-1: Objective Tree Analysis to Identify the “Ideal State”

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The top of your objective tree will also be helpful when describing the expected impacts that your project will
potentially have. In Section B.3. of the SAP concept note you will be asked to clearly demonstrate how this
project will align with GCF investment criteria and country priorities. The broader impacts from your objective
tree will help you address these sections of the template.

Figure 5: Section B.3. from the SAP Concept note.

3. Lessons Learned and Conclusion

In this exercise, we have converted your problem tree into an objective tree. Though both the problem tree
and objective tree will likely not appear in your finalized concept note, they are essential tools for mapping
out the logic that your project is built on. A clear objective tree is extremely useful for informing your theory of
change as well. As noted above, before moving on, make sure to test the logic of your objective tree by
asking “does this make sense?”

In the next exercise, we’ll learn how to convert the problem tree and objective tree into a theory of change
for your concept note.

Tool 4-1: Objective Tree Analysis to Identify the “Ideal State”