1.

Introduction
Agriculture represents a core part of the Indian economy and provides food and livelihood activities to much of the Indian population. While the magnitude of impact varies greatly by region, climate change is expected to impact on agricultural productivity and shifting crop patterns. The policy implications are wide-reaching, as changes in agriculture could affect food security, trade policy, livelihood activities and water conservation issues, impacting large portions of the population.

It is known that climate change is affecting agriculture in many ways. A lot of studies have been carried out by agriculturalists, scientists and economists on the adverse effects of climate change. In India, agriculture and allied activities constitute the single largest component of Grass Domestic Product (GDP) contributing nearly 25% of the total. The tremendous importance of this sector to the Indian economy can be ganged by the fact that it provides employment to tothirds of the total workforce. The share of agricultural products in exports is also substantial, with agriculture accounting for 15% of export earnings. Agricultural growth also has a direct impact on poverty eradication, and is an important factor in employment generation. Further, Indian agriculture is fundamentally dependent on weather for higher productivity. The proof of this has been the increasing in agricultural production, owing to good monsoons over the last few In a country like India where seventy percent of the population is dependent on agriculture, it is imperative that the effect of such drastic changes in environment is studied. Also, it is equally important that we rely more on scientifically proven facts about global climate changes rather than mere conjectures and exaggerations.

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2. Objectives
1. To study the impact of climate change on Agriculture in India. 2. To study about the improving adaptive capability of Agriculture.

3. Methodology
Scientists used a variety of crop growth models to evaluate potential climate change impacts on wheat and rice (Indias primary crops), and other crops such as sorghum and maize. Specific variables used in the models included changes in temperature, CO2 levels, precipitation, and solar radiation. Importantly, these variables can both increase and decrease crop yields with changes in climate, and therefore the interaction of these effects was also studied (for example, while increased temperatures can reduce yields, this can be offset by increased yields due to increased solar radiation). The study also examined impacts on rain-fed versus irrigated crops. The models were developed using historic weather datasets as a baseline, correlated with growth and yield of crops to characterize inter-seasonal climatic variability at various locations.

Climate Change

Direct effects on crop growth Physiology Phenology Morphology

Indirect effects Soil fertility Irrigation availability Pests Floods and droughts Sea level rise

Socio economics Food demands Costs and benefits Policy Trade Farmers response

Human intervention Adaptation strategies Mitigation strategies

Agricultural Production & Vulnerability

Assessment of Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change

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Models used to predict climate change impacts on agriculture 1. The following models were developed to evaluate the impacts of changes in temperature and carbon dioxide on crops:

2. INFOCROP, a generic growth model for various crops, was developed by IARI for optimal resource and agronomic management options.

3. INFOCANE, a simple sugarcane growth model, was developed by IARI to measure effects on cane yield.

4. Simple tea and coconut models were developed for tropical India and Sri Lanka.

5. Pest damage mechanisms were coupled with INFOCROP for simulating the effect of pests. The use of this model meant that assessments could be made of the impact of climate change and its variability on incidence of pests for various crops.

6. Interaction effects of climate changes (temperature rise, rainfall and radiation changes), with irrigation and nitrogen amounts, and agronomic management practices were established for various agro-ecologies. These were used to calculate the actual impact of climate change on agricultural production as well for suggesting agro- and resource management options for sustaining production in India.

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4. Literature Review
Sinha and Swaminathan (1991) showed that an increase of 2oC in temperature could decrease the rice yield by about 0.75 ton/ha in the high yield areas; and a 0.5oC increase in winter temperature would reduce wheat yield by 0.45 ton/ha. Rao and Sinha (1994) showed that wheat yields could decrease between 28 to 68% without considering the CO2 fertilization effects; and would range between +4 to -34% after considering CO2 fertilization effects. Aggarwal and Sinha (1993) using WTGROWS model showed that a 2oC temperature rise would decrease wheat yields in most places. Lat et al. (1996) concluded that carbon fertilization effects would not be able to offset the negative impacts of high temperature on rice yields. Saseendran et al. (2000) showed that for every one degree rise in temperature the decline in rice yield would be about 6%. Aggarwal et al. (2002) using WTGROWS and recent climate change scenarios estimated impacts on wheat and other cereal crops. Los Banos ,Philippines Field studies conducted at the international Rice Research Institute (IRRI) have confirmed prediction from theoretical studies that global warming will make rice crops less productive. Combining a quarter century of climate data collected at IRRI with yield trends in adjacent fields over the past dozen years, researchers further discovered that simulation models under estimated the problem by half because they over looked pernicious effecte of high minimum nighttime temperature. As per the report of R.K Pachauri ,chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on climate change warned while addressing MPs in a lecture organized by the Bureau of Parliamentary Studies and training that Indian Agriculture is more vulnerable to climate change compared to other [Link] studies showed that agriculture would be hit in the subcontinent with increase in global temperature .Wheat yields would fall by 5-10% with every increase of 1 degree Celsius.

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5. Observations
5.1 Projected Impacts 1. Strengthen research on impact assessment of climate change on production resources, crops, livestock, fisheries, and microbes using field and controlled environment facilities, and simulation models: The key aspects could be: Spatial and temporal availability of surface and groundwater for irrigation Sensitive processes such as pollen germination, spikelet sterility and grain development. Agricultural production (demand and supply of commodities, prices, trade, regional and societal differences) Quality of produce Livelihood of farmers and fishermen Decrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in different parts of India - For example a a 2C increase in mean air temperature, rice yields could decrease by about 0.75 ton/hectare in the high yield areas and by about 0.06 ton/hectare in the low yield coastal regions. Major impacts of climate change will be on rain fed crops (other than rice and wheat), which account for nearly 60% of cropland area. In India poorest farmers practice rain fed agriculture. The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and 25% for a temperature rise of 2-3.5C. Increase in CO2 to 550 ppm increases yields of rice, wheat, legumes and oilseeds by 1020%. A 1oC increase in temperature may reduce yields of wheat, soybean, mustard, groundnut, and potato by 3-7%. Much higher losses at higher temperatures. Productivity of most crops to decrease only marginally by 2020 but by 10-40% by 2100. Possibly some improvement in yields of chickpea, rabi maize, sorghum and millets; and coconut in west coast. Less loss in potato, mustard and vegetables in north-western India due to reduced frost damage.

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Increased droughts and floods are likely to increase production variability Considerable effect on microbes, pathogens, and insects Increasing sea and river water temperatures are likely to affect fish breeding, migration, and harvests Increased water, shelter, and energy requirement for livestock Animal distress due to heat; effects on reproduction Loss of 1.5 million tons of milk by 2020 Table 1: Climate Change Projection in India Increase in Temp. 00C Lowest Highest 1.54 1.12 3.18 2.37 6.31 4.62

Year

Season

Change in Rainfall, % Lowest -1.95 1.81 -9.22 7.18 -24.83 10.10 Highest 4.36 5.10 3.82 10.52 -4.50 15.18

2020s

Rabi Kharif

1.08 0.87 2.54 1.81 4.14 2.91

2050s

Rabi Kharif

2080s

Rabi Kharif

Source: IARI (Indian Agriculture Research Institute) 5.2 The contribution of different sectors in India to climate change

energy

agriculture

industrial processes

wastes

8%

2%

28% 62%

Source: Indian climate research program

Table 2: Impacts of climate change on food supply Items Rice Wheat Coarse Grains Total Cereals Pulses Foodgrains Fruits Vegetables Milk Meat and Eggs Marine products Production (Million Tons) Demand of food (Million Tons) 2000 2010 2020 85.4 103.6 122.1 71.0 85.8 102.8 29.9 34.9 40.9 184.7 224.3 265.8 16.1 21.4 27.8 200.8 245.7 293.6 41.1 56.3 77.0 84.5 112.7 149.7 75.3 103.7 142.7 3.7 5.4 7.8 5.7 8.2 11.8 Source: IARI (Indian Agriculture Research Institute)

5.3 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production in India The production of wheat has been gradually decreased over the years. Over the last ten years it has been observed that production has come down by million tons. It is expected that such a change in climate will lead it to adverse effect and the figure may go down to 66 MT in 2060 and around 60MT in 2070 from 75MT in 2000.
80 75 70 Production , Mtons 65 60 55 50 45 40 2000 2010 2020 2030 Year 2040 2050 2060 2070

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5.4 Impacts of climate change on Rice production in India.

The following chart illustrates nicely that how climate change has affected the rice production in India. During time periods of no climate change there was a production of almost 90MT and after 2000 it has fallen drastically to 65-70MT. These figures are alarming for the developing country like India which has to cope up as also being a country with high population.

6. Improving Adaptive Capability of Agriculture

1. Improved training and general education of populations dependent on agriculture

2. Agricultural research to develop new crop varieties

3. Identification of the present vulnerabilities of agricultural systems

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4. Food programs and other social security programs to provide insurance against supply changes

5. Transportation, distribution and market integration to provide the infrastructure to supply food during crop short falls.

In addition to the above improvements, it is imperative that the developed countries and the rapidly developing countries formulate strategies to curb green house gas emissions. Countries on the fast track of economic growth should also look at adopting new energy-saving technologies and planting of more trees. The emphasis should also be laid on increasing the use of renewable energy sources like solar and wind. It is high time for leading emitters of CO to
2

formulate national programs to address climate change. Only then the effect of climate change on agriculture can be reduced.

7. Uncertainties
Errors in climate models, crop models and data used No links with future water availability No consideration of weather extremes Future technological developments and socio-economic scenarios

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8. Conclusion
Climate change is likely to reduce yields of most crops in long-term. In short-term effects may be small (preliminary results, better field data and models needed). Increased climatic variability could cause significant fluctuations in production even in short-term. Adaptation strategies can help minimize negative impacts. These need greater research, policy and financial support. Costs of adaptation are less understood but likely to be high; costs of inaction could be even higher. Adaptation practices take time to become effective. A crop variety, e.g. takes 10-20 yrs to develop. Need to act now.

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9. Bibliography
1. [Link] 2. [Link] ntentMDK:22204311~pagePK:141137~piPK:141127~theSitePK:295584,[Link] 3. Parikh Jyoti and Gokarn S., (1993), Climate Change and India's Energy Policy Options, Global Environmental Change, Vol. 3(3), 276 -291 4. Kumar, K.S. Kavi and Jyoti Parikh, (1998), "Climate change impacts on Indian agriculture: The Ricardian approach". in Dinar [Link]., Measuring the impacts of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture, World Bank Technical Paper No.402, 1998. 5. [Link] and Anshu Rahal, Effect of global warming on crop productivity, Kurukshetra (July 2008), Vol-56.

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