Examples for Chapter Three:
Example 3.1
Annual maximum recorded floods in a certain river, for the period 1951 to 1977 is
given below. Verify whether the Gumbel extreme-value distribution fit the recorded
values. Estimate the flood discharge with return period of (i) 100 years and (ii) 150
years by graphical extrapolation.
Solutions: The flood discharge values are arranged in descending order and the
plotting position return period TP for each discharge is obtained as
Where m = order number. The discharge magnitude
Q can be plotted against the corresponding T P on a Gumbel extreme probability
paper.
The statistics x and σn-1 for the series are next calculated and are shown in table
below.
Using these the discharge xT for some chosen return interval is calculated by using
Gumbel's formulae [Eqs.(3.15), (3.14) and (3.13)]. From Tables 3.4 and 3.5, for N =
27, yn = 0.5332 and Sn = 1.1004.
Choosing T = 10 years, by Eq.(3.15), yT = -[ln(ln(10/9))] = 2.25037 and K = (2.25307-
0.5332)/1.1004 = 1.56 and xT = 4263 + (1.56*1432.6) = 6499m3/s.
Similarly, values of xT are calculated for two more T values as shown below.
When these values are plotted on Gumbel probability paper, it is seen that these
points lie on a straight line according to the property of the Gumbel's extreme
probability paper. Then by extrapolation of the theoretical x T Vs T relationship, from
this plot, at T = 100 years, x T = 9600m3/s and at T = 150 years, x T = 10700m3/s. [By
using Eq. (3.13) to (3.15), x100 = 9558m3/s and x150 = 10088m3/s.]
Example 3.2:
Data covering a period of 92 years for a certain river yielded the mean and standard
deviation of the annual flood series as 6437 and 2951 m 3/s respectively. Using
Gumbel's method, estimate the flood discharge with a return period of 500 years.
What are the (a) 95% and (b) 80% confidence limits for this estimate?
Solution: From Table 3.4 and 4.5 for N = 92 years, yn = 0.5589, and Sn = 1.2020.
Then
y500 = -[ln((ln(500/499))] = 6.21361 K500 = (6.21361 - 0.5589)/1.2020 = 4.7044,
Hence, x500 = 6437 + 4.7044*2951 = 20320m3/s.
(a) For the 95% confidence probability f(c) = 1.96 and by Eq.(3.16) x1/2 =20320x ± T
(1.96*1726), which results in x1 = 23703m3/s and x2 = 16937m3/s.
Thus the estimated discharge of 20320m3/s has a 95% probability of lying between
23700 and 16940m3/s.
(b) For 80% confidence probability, f(c) = 1.282 and by Eq.(3.16) x 1/2 =20320x ± T
(1.282*1726), which results in x1 = 22533m3/s and x2 =18107m3/s. Thus the
estimated discharge 20320 m /s has an 80% probability of lying between 22533 and
3
18107m3/s.
For the data of Example 3.2, the values of x T for different values of T are calculated
and can be shown plotted on a Gumbel probability paper.
Figure 3.2: Confidence bands for Gumbel’s distribution: Example 3.2
Example 3.3: For the annual flood series data given in Example 3.1, estimate the
flood discharge for a return period of (a) 100 years (b) 200 years and (c) 1000 years
by using Log-Pearson Type III distribution.
Solution: The variate z = log x is first calculated for all the discharges in table below.
Then the statistics z , σz and Cs are calculated from table 4.6 to obtain
The flood discharge for a given T is calculated as below. Here, values of K z for given
T and Cs = 0.043 are read from Table 3.6.
Again…
Example 3.4: Computation of d-consecutive Day averages for low flow analysis.
Values in bold are minimum for the period shown
Example 3.5: A bridge has an expected life of 25 years and is designed for a flood
magnitude of return period 100 years. (a) What is the risk of this hydrological
design? (b) If 10% risk is acceptable, what return period will have to be adopted?
Solution:
(a) The risk R for n = 25 years and T = 100 years is:
Hence the inbuilt risk in this design is 22.2%.
(c) say 240 years. Hence to get 10% acceptable risk, the bridge will have to be
designed for a flood of return period T = 240 years.
Exercise: Annual flood data of a certain river covering the period 1948 to 1979
yielded for the annual flood discharges a mean of 29,600m 3/s and a standard
deviation of 14,860m3/s. for a proposed bridge on this river near the gauging site it is
decided to have an acceptable risk of 10% in its expected life of 50 years.
(a) Estimate the flood discharge by Gumbel's method for use in the design of
this structure
(b) If the actual flood value adopted in the design is 125,000m3/s what are the safety
factor and safety margin relating to maximum flood discharge? (Answers (a)
105,000m3/s and (b) (SF)flood = 1.19, Safety Margin for flood magnitude =
20,000m3/s)