Panel Data Econometrics Exercises
Panel Data Econometrics Exercises
Assuming strictly exogenous variables in panel data models implies \( E[x_{it}\varepsilon_{is}] = 0 \) for all \( s, t \), severely restricting the model's applicability in real-world scenarios where endogeneity is prevalent. This assumption ignores dynamic relationships between variables over time and might lead to biased estimates if violated, as contemporaneous or past influences can cause correlation between explanatory variables and the unobserved error term. Thus, estimation based on this assumption may not reflect causal relations, necessitating methods like GMM or IV where strict exogeneity is not required.
The inclusion of lagged dependent variables \( y_{i,t-1} \) in a model with endogenous explanatory variables complicates estimation because \( y_{i,t-1} \) is inherently endogenous, being correlated with the error term \( \varepsilon_{it} \) through its correlation with past errors. This correlation violates the strict exogeneity assumption needed for OLS and certain panel data estimators to provide consistent estimates. To consistently estimate the parameters, instrumental variable techniques or methods such as system GMM, which can appropriately instrument the lagged variables, should be employed.
For the OLS estimator to be consistent in the linear panel data model \( y_{it} = x_{1,it}'\beta_1 + x_{2,it}'\beta_2 + w_{1,i}'\gamma_1 + w_{2,i}'\gamma_2 + \alpha_i + \varepsilon_{it} \), the additional assumptions include \( E[x_{2,it}\varepsilon_{it}] = 0 \) and \( E[w_{2,i}\varepsilon_{it}] = 0 \). These conditions ensure that the variables \( x_{2,it} \) and \( w_{2,i} \) are uncorrelated with the error term, providing unbiased and consistent estimation.
The fixed effects estimator will provide a consistent estimator if the panel data model satisfies the condition that time-varying explanatory variables \( x_{k,it} \) are strictly exogenous, meaning \( E[x_{k,is}\varepsilon_{it}] = 0 \) for all \( s, t \). Additionally, the assumption that the idiosyncratic error \( \varepsilon_{it} \) is uncorrelated with the explanatory variables over time is required. These conditions allow the transformation of the model through within-group deviations to consistently estimate parameters by eliminating cross-sectional biases.
The IV estimator \( \hat{\beta}_{IV} \) can be derived by using \( x_{it} - \bar{x}_i \) as an instrument for \( x_{it} \) in the model \( y_{it} = x_{it}\beta + \alpha_i + \varepsilon_{it} \). Under the condition where \( T = 2 \), both the IV estimator and the fixed effects (within) estimator \( \hat{\beta}_{FE} \) remain identical because the variation used to identify the parameters is the same. This identity does not hold when \( T > 2 \)
The between estimator \( \hat{\beta}_{B} \) for the model \( y_{it} = x_{it}\beta + \alpha_i + \varepsilon_{it} \) is expressed as \( \hat{\beta}_{B} = \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n} (\bar{x}_i - \bar{x})(\bar{y}_i - \bar{y})}{\sum_{i=1}^{n} (\bar{x}_i - \bar{x})^2} \). It is unbiased for \( \beta + \psi \) because it captures the variation between groups, and thus averages out the within-group effects, isolating the cross-group variation attributed to \( \beta + \psi \)
The GLS (random effects) estimator provides the same result as the fixed effects estimator when the estimator for \( \beta \) based on \( y_{it} = x_{it}\beta + \bar{x}_i\psi + \alpha_i + \varepsilon_{it} \) is identical to \( \hat{\beta}_{FE} \). This occurs because the fixed effects model essentially transforms the data by removing individual effects, which aligns with the assumptions of minimal individual heterogeneity in the random effects model. However, this does not eliminate the distinction between the approaches; fixed effects control for unobserved heterogeneity at the cost of losing between-group variation information, while random effects assume that these effects are random and uncorrelated with explanatory variables.
First differencing might fail to maintain identifiability among panel data estimators as \( T \) increases because it relies on the differences between consecutive periods. When \( T \) is large, the variance of differenced variables can increase, inflating the standard errors and making estimates less reliable. Additionally, differencing may introduce serial correlation in the errors, which affects the consistency and efficiency of estimation, especially when \( T \) grows. Consequently, with larger \( T \), methods that exploit the full data structure, such as fixed effects, may be preferable.
Both \( \beta \) and \( \gamma \) can be consistently estimated if \( x_{2,it} \) includes \( y_{i,t-1} \) by employing a dynamic panel data model like Arellano-Bond's approach, which introduces orthogonal conditions to account for the endogeneity of \( y_{i,t-1} \). This requires assumptions such as no serial correlation in idiosyncratic errors and that differences of lagged dependent variables can serve as instruments. It often involves transforming the model to first differences to eliminate individual effects and utilizing appropriate instrumental variables for consistent estimation.
If \( E[x_{2,is}\varepsilon_{it}] = 0 \) holds, a viable alternative estimator might be the generalized method of moments (GMM), which can handle endogeneity by using lagged values of \( x_{2,it} \) and other variables as instruments. The implication is that the number of these instruments should be carefully restricted to avoid overfitting, which can weaken the estimator's performance due to too many instrumented variables, leading to inaccurate estimates.