Probability Analysis Tutorial Sheet
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Powered by AIThe probability of being female given being unemployed, P(F|U), is calculated using the formula P(F|U) = P(F ∩ U) / P(U). The number of unemployed people is 206 (males) + 358 (females) = 564, so P(U) = 564/1281. The number of unemployed females is 358, so P(F ∩ U) = 358/1281. Therefore, P(F|U) = (358/1281) / (564/1281) = 358/564 ≈ 0.635 .
A tree diagram illustrates all possible outcomes from each birth event. Each branch represents a potential outcome (male or female), with a respective probability of 0.49 for female and 0.51 for male. For two babies, the diagram has four end branches (FF, FM, MF, MM), representing combinations of sexes. The probability of both babies being girls (FF) is 0.49 * 0.49 = 0.2401. The probability that both babies are the same sex is P(FF) + P(MM) = 0.2401 + (0.51 * 0.51) = 0.2401 + 0.2601 = 0.5002. If the first is a girl and the second is a boy (FM), probability is 0.49 * 0.51 = 0.2499, similarly for MF = 0.2499. Second different from first: FM + MF = 0.2499 + 0.2499 = 0.4998 .
The probability that the committee consists of all women is calculated using combinations. There are 10 women and we need to choose all 5 from them. The total number of possible committees of 5 from 15 people (i.e., 5 men and 10 women) is given by C(15, 5). The number of ways to choose 5 women from 10 is C(10, 5). Thus, the probability is C(10, 5) / C(15, 5). Calculating these, C(10, 5) = 252 and C(15, 5) = 3003. Therefore, the probability is 252 / 3003 ≈ 0.084 .
To assess the impact of training, compare retention rates: 109 out of 152 receiving training stayed (109/152 ≈ 0.717), whereas 60 out of 104 without training stayed (60/104 ≈ 0.577). Higher retention among trained employees suggests training has a positive impact on retention. Statistical independence can be evaluated by testing if P(S|T) = P(S), where S is staying, and T is training. Given different probabilities, events are not independent, supporting training's impact .
This is found using Bayes' theorem: P(A/B) = [P(B/A) * P(A)] / P(B). Given P(A) = 0.001, P(B/A) = 0.99, and P(¬B/¬A) = 0.995, P(B) can be calculated as P(B) = P(B/A) * P(A) + P(B/¬A) * P(¬A). P(B/¬A) is 1 - P(¬B/¬A) = 0.005, P(¬A) = 0.999. Thus, P(B) = (0.99 * 0.001) + (0.005 * 0.999) = 0.00499. Therefore, P(A/B) = (0.99 * 0.001) / 0.00499 ≈ 0.1984 .
To determine independence, compare P(M)*P(E) with P(M ∩ E). P(M) = (206 + 412) / 1281, P(E) = (412 + 305) / 1281, and P(M ∩ E) = 412 / 1281. If P(M)*P(E) = P(M ∩ E), then M and E are independent. Calculating, P(M) = 618 / 1281, P(E) = 717 / 1281, and P(M ∩ E) = 412 / 1281. Therefore, P(M)*P(E) ≠ P(M ∩ E), showing M and E are not independent .
The probability is calculated by dividing the number of employees who received training and did not leave, by the total number of employees. 109 employees received training and did not leave out of 256 total employees, so the probability is 109/256 ≈ 0.426 .
Calculate the probability of (Event A: an even number OR Event B: a number greater than 4). Event A includes 2, 4, 6, and Event B includes 5, 6. The favorable outcomes are 2, 4, 5, 6. Hence, 4 out of 6 outcomes are favorable, so the probability is 4/6 = 2/3 .
Events A and B are independent if P(A ∩ B) = P(A) * P(B). Given P(A ∩ B) = 0.35, P(A) = 0.4 and P(B) = 0.7, calculate P(A) * P(B) = 0.4 * 0.7 = 0.28. Since 0.35 ≠ 0.28, events A and B are not independent .
Use Bayes' theorem: P(S/B) = [P(B/S) * P(S)] / P(B). With P(S) = 0.2, P(B/S) = 0.75, and P(B) = 0.5, P(B) can be computed including both swimming and non-swimming days. From tree diagram, P(B) = (0.75 * 0.2) + (x * 0.8) = 0.5. First find x = 0.3125 to satisfy P(B) = 0.5. Now, P(S/B) = [0.75 * 0.2] / 0.5 = 0.15/0.5 = 0.3 .