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Aggregate Demand and Supply Dynamics

This lecture introduces the concepts of aggregate demand and aggregate supply. It discusses how aggregate demand is determined by consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports. The aggregate demand curve slopes downward, showing the quantity of output demanded at different price levels. Aggregate supply includes both short-run and long-run aggregate supply. The short-run aggregate supply curve slopes upward while the long-run aggregate supply curve is vertical. Macroeconomic equilibrium occurs where aggregate demand and supply are equal.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
23 views7 pages

Aggregate Demand and Supply Dynamics

This lecture introduces the concepts of aggregate demand and aggregate supply. It discusses how aggregate demand is determined by consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports. The aggregate demand curve slopes downward, showing the quantity of output demanded at different price levels. Aggregate supply includes both short-run and long-run aggregate supply. The short-run aggregate supply curve slopes upward while the long-run aggregate supply curve is vertical. Macroeconomic equilibrium occurs where aggregate demand and supply are equal.
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LECTURE FIVE

AGGREGATE DEMAND AND AGGERGATE SUPPLY


5.1 Introduction
In this lecture we will introduce a new framework based on the concepts of aggregate demand
(AD) and aggregate supply (AS). Furthermore, we shall discuss the relationship between aggregate
demand, the price level and real GDP. We will also consider the relationship between aggregate
supply, the price level and real GDP. It is the interaction of aggregate demand and aggregate supply
that determines the dynamics of macroeconomic changes, with implications for output,
employment and inflation. We will discuss the concept of aggregate demand, changes in aggregate
demand, aggregate supply, changes in aggregate supply, short run and long run aggregate supply
and macroeconomic equilibrium

5.2 Expected Learning Outcomes


By the end of this lecture, the learner should be able to:

 Understand the nature of aggregate demand


 Understand the nature of aggregate supply
 Explain the changes in aggregate demand and supply in the economy
 Illustrate the relationship between short run and long run aggregate supply
 Understand the concept potential real GDP
 Identify how macroeconomic equilibrium depends upon the matching of aggregate demand
and aggregate supply.
5.3 Aggregate Demand
In the previous lecture we have seen that aggregate expenditure is composed of consumer spending
(C), investment spending (I), government spending (G) and spending on exports less imports (X −
M ). It is the spending plans under each of these demand headings that gives us aggregate planned
expenditure (AE) i.e

At any given point in time, aggregate demand will be equal to the actual output of the economy
(real GDP) and is given by:

AD = C + I + G + (X − M) = Real GDP
Assuming that the economy has sufficient productive capacity, the higher the level of aggregate
demand, the higher will be GDP, particularly because consumer spending is related directly to
income. We can therefore define an aggregate demand curve as a curve that shows the quantity
demanded of real GDP at different price levels, holding all other factors constant

Graphically is as shown below;

The AD Curve is downward sloping because of two effects:

Real Money Balance Effect: At lower price levels the real purchasing power of money balances
(currency and bank deposits) rises. This leads to a greater quantity of goods demanded and
therefore a higher real GDP. For example, if price levels fell by a half and money balances stayed
the same, the real purchasing power of the money balances would double.

Substitution Effect: Holding all other factors constant, a rise in the price level leads to a rise in
interest rates. This is because given higher prices households and firms have less real purchasing
power and therefore they will tend to lend less and will wish to borrow more. This decrease in the
supply of loanable funds alongside a rise in the demand to borrow will then tend to cause the
interest rate to rise.

5.4 Changes in Aggregate Demand


The aggregate demand shifts because of the following factors:

i. Government Macroeconomic policy


ii. Expectations of firms and households
iii. Global trends

i. Government Macroeconomic policy


Changes in government expenditure and taxation or fiscal policy will directly and indirectly impact
on aggregate demand. The undertaking of either more state spending or tax cuts will increase
aggregate demand. Government spending directly affects aggregate demand, while changes in
taxation indirectly stimulate consumer and investment spending through changes in disposable
income.

An expansionary fiscal policy, leads to aggregate demand (AD) curve to shift to the right from
AD1 to AD2. This leads to a higher aggregate demand resulting to an increase in real GDP. By
contrast, a reduction in government spending and higher taxes (a contractionary fiscal policy) will
shift the AD curve to the left leading to a lower real GDP; as illustrated by the movement from
AD1 to AD3. This is illustrated in the figure below;
Government might also use monetary policy to affect aggregate demand and therefore the level of
economic activity. The effects are similar to one for fiscal policy as shown above.

ii. The Role of Expectations


Expectations are important in determination of the stat o the economy this is because households
feel optimistic about future since they are likely to borrow in spending and investing in new plant
and machinery. When expectations are such that people and businesses feel pessimistic about the
future, they are likely to cut back on their consumption and investment plans. Expectations about
future income can affect spending today, as can expectations about, in particular, future price
levels, taxes, interest rates and exchange rates. If we expect something to cost more in the shops
in the future we are likely to buy it now.

In general, any positive change in expectations that boosts aggregate demand will shift the AD
curve to the right; any negative change in expectations will shift the AD curve to the left.

iii. Global Trends Impact


Aggregate demand at the national economy level is often affected by change in economy of the
world. For instance, a change in the current exchange rate will affect the demand for exports and
imports by altering their relative prices. Higher exports or less imports leads to a shift in the
aggregate demand curve to the right whereas, less exports and high imports leads to a shift in
aggregate demand curve to the left.

5.5 Aggregate Supply (AS)


It refers to the total value of goods and services produced in an economy at any given time. The
aggregate supply available depends upon the factors of production utilized.

5.5.1 Aggregate Supply in the Long run


It shows the relationship between the price level and real GDP in the long run. In a competitive
market economy, at any point in time in the long run, when all short-run frictions have worked
their way out, long-run aggregate supply (LRAS) should be at the level where actual real GDP
equals the economy’s potential real GDP given fully efficient use of all the avail-able inputs (i.e.
a state of full employment of resources).

The LRAS is unaffected by price changes. This is because an increase in the demand for goods
and services cannot increase the supply, which is fixed at the potential GDP. The expected result,
therefore, of a higher aggregate demand would be a higher price level. However, an increase in the
price level would reduce real wages (wages divided by the price level: W/P), to which, at full
employment, workers can be expected to respond by demanding a compensating money wage. The
curve is vertical as shown in the figure below;

The movement from LRAS1 to LRAS2 in the figure above illustrates an increase in long-run
aggregate supply from Yf1 to Yf2. A decline in long-run aggregate supply would be represented by
a movement in the opposite direction.

5.5.2 Short Run Aggregate Supply


In the short run, real GDP may be at or below the potential real GDP at full employment. A higher
aggregate demand at a time when aggregate supply is below its potential level can be expected to
lead to more output produced. The curve is upward sloping as shown in the figure below;
An increase in SRAS is illustrated in the figure above by the movement rightwards in the curve
from SRAS1 to SRAS2. A decrease in short-run aggregate supply would lead to a movement in the
opposite direction.

5.6 Macroeconomic Equilibrium


It occurs when aggregate demand is equal to the aggregate supply in the economy. The AD curve
shows the volume of real expenditure at every possible price level and the AS curve the volume
of real GDP supplied at every possible price level. The macroeconomic equilibrium occurs where
there is no excess aggregate demand in the economy i.e demand cannot meet the supply and vice
versa as shown below;
The equilibrium occurs at point e giving a price level of P* and a real GDP of Y *. If, for
example, the price level was higher than P* then aggregate supply would exceed aggregate
demand (AS AD). As a result there would be unsold goods and services and, consequently,
output and prices would be cut. This would continue until the equilibrium, e, was restored.
Similarly, if the price level was below P* then aggregate demand would exceed aggregate
supply (AD AS). This would cause prices to rise and would encourage firms to produce more
until, again, the equilibrium position, e, was reached.

5.7 Lecture Activity


a) Illustrate the relationship between short run and long run aggregate supply curves

b) Explain three factors that lead to a shift in the demand curve

Common questions

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In the short run, aggregate supply (SRAS) can deviate from potential GDP due to variable factors like price stickiness and resource misallocation, which means real GDP can be either below or above potential GDP. In contrast, long-run aggregate supply (LRAS) is assumed to align with potential GDP, reflecting a fully efficient economy at full resource employment, and remains unchanged by price levels . Macroeconomic equilibrium occurs where aggregate demand equals aggregate supply . Short-run deviations lead to price level adjustments that restore long-run equilibrium; a mismatch where demand exceeds supply raises prices, encouraging more output until equilibrium is restored. Conversely, excess supply lowers prices until equilibrium is re-achieved .

Macroeconomic equilibrium is reached where aggregate demand equals aggregate supply, determining the equilibrium price level and real GDP . If aggregate demand exceeds supply, an upward pressure on prices emerges, causing inflation until equilibrium is restored through increased production or adjusted expectations . Conversely, if supply exceeds demand, unsold goods necessitate price cuts, leading to disinflation or deflation until balance is reinstated. Disequilibrium can lead to either inflationary or recessionary pressures, affecting economic stability and requiring policy intervention to correct .

Potential real GDP represents the maximum output an economy can achieve when operating at full efficiency and full employment without triggering inflation. It serves as a benchmark for assessing long-term growth prospects and limits of economic expansion . Understanding potential GDP helps policymakers identify gaps between actual and potential output, guiding decisions on economic policies to stimulate growth or mitigate overheating. It also aids in projecting sustainability of growth, indicating economic health and guiding strategic investments in capital, labor, and technology to enhance capacity and living standards .

Fiscal policy impacts aggregate demand directly via government spending and indirectly through taxation changes that affect disposable income. Expansionary fiscal policy, such as increased government spending or tax cuts, shifts the aggregate demand curve rightwards, enhancing real GDP and potentially boosting economic activity, thus stabilizing or growing the economy . Conversely, contractionary policies, through spending cuts or tax increases, shift AD leftward, potentially reducing GDP and cooling an overheated economy. Effective use of fiscal policy helps maintain macroeconomic stability by managing inflation, unemployment, and growth .

Expectations significantly influence aggregate demand as optimistic households and firms are more likely to borrow, spend, and invest, moving the AD curve to the right. This leads to a rise in real GDP due to increased economic activity . If expectations are pessimistic, spending and investment decline, shifting the AD curve left and potentially decreasing GDP. Real-world implications include business cycle fluctuations; for example, during times of economic uncertainty, pessimistic expectations can exacerbate a recession through reduced spending, while optimistic expectations in a recovery phase can accelerate economic growth .

Global trends, such as shifts in exchange rates, international trade policies, and global economic conditions, can significantly influence a country's aggregate demand. Changes in exchange rates alter the relative prices of exports and imports; a weaker currency boosts exports and shifts AD right, potentially increasing GDP, while a stronger currency can reduce export competitiveness, shifting AD left . Policies promoting free trade can enhance AD by expanding markets for goods. Global economic stagnation can decrease demand for exports, impacting GDP negatively. These trends underscore the interconnectedness of global economies and the importance of adapting national policies to global changes .

Shifts in the aggregate demand curve can be caused by government macroeconomic policy, expectations of firms and households, and global trends . Government policies, such as changes in fiscal policy, can directly affect aggregate demand; for example, increased government spending or tax cuts will shift the AD curve to the right, potentially increasing real GDP . Conversely, reduced spending or higher taxes can shift it left, reducing GDP. Expectations influence AD as optimism can lead to increased spending and investment, shifting AD right; pessimism does the opposite . Changes in global economic trends, such as exchange rates affecting export and import levels, also shift AD; more exports or fewer imports shift AD right, while fewer exports or more imports shift AD left .

Changes in tax policy influence disposable income and thus consumer and investment spending. Tax reductions increase disposable income, boosting consumer spending and shifting aggregate demand rightward, potentially enhancing real GDP and economic activity. This can encourage investment by increasing businesses' expected returns . Conversely, tax hikes decrease disposable income, reducing spending and investment, and shifting AD leftward, with potential implications for GDP reduction and economic slowdown. Effective tax policy aligns with economic objectives, managing inflation, promoting growth, and ensuring fiscal sustainability .

The short-run aggregate supply (SRAS) curve is upward sloping, indicating that output increases can be achieved with rising price levels due to temporary factors like wage and price rigidities, allowing for some deviation from potential GDP . In contrast, the long-run aggregate supply (LRAS) curve is vertical at potential GDP, reflecting full resource employment and supply insensitivity to price changes. LRAS represents an economy's maximum output capacity, unaffected by demand fluctuations, emphasizing the full adjustment of prices and wages over time, leading to equilibrium at potential GDP .

A shift in the long-run aggregate supply (LRAS) curve indicates a change in the economy's potential GDP, representing its maximum sustainable output with full resource employment. This can occur due to improvements in technology, increases in labor force, enhanced capital stock, or better education and skills development. A rightward shift implies economic growth, increasing potential GDP from Yf1 to Yf2 . Conversely, a leftward shift might suggest resource depletion or structural issues, lowering potential output. These changes impact long-term economic stability, affecting living standards, employment levels, and inflation rates .

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