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Keynesian Economics: Uncertainty and Policy

The document discusses several key concepts from John Maynard Keynes' work: - Investment depends on the marginal efficiency of capital compared to the interest rate. If the MEC is above the interest rate, investment will increase, and vice versa. - In the short run, Keynes assumed quantities, not prices, would adjust. If demand falls short of supply, employers will lay off workers rather than lowering wages. - Uncertainty about the future influences investment decisions more than calculable risk. Uncertainty grows exponentially over longer time periods. - Keynes criticized the classical view that markets would automatically adjust, like through flexible wages. He advocated active monetary and fiscal policy.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
13 views8 pages

Keynesian Economics: Uncertainty and Policy

The document discusses several key concepts from John Maynard Keynes' work: - Investment depends on the marginal efficiency of capital compared to the interest rate. If the MEC is above the interest rate, investment will increase, and vice versa. - In the short run, Keynes assumed quantities, not prices, would adjust. If demand falls short of supply, employers will lay off workers rather than lowering wages. - Uncertainty about the future influences investment decisions more than calculable risk. Uncertainty grows exponentially over longer time periods. - Keynes criticized the classical view that markets would automatically adjust, like through flexible wages. He advocated active monetary and fiscal policy.

Uploaded by

kibeli6010
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOC, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

 Investment depends on what Keynes calls the 'marginal efficiency

of capital' - if the MEC is above the interest rate, investment will


increase. If it is below, it will fall.

 Assumption #4 - Quantities not Prices Adjust in short run. It is


linked to the earlier assumption that demand may fall short of
supply. If the expected sales falls short of the expected sales
(which means demand falls short of supply), the employer will lay
off workers. The classical economists assumed that it was fall in
wages that reduces the output. However, in Keynesian model, this
laying off reduces the excess supply of output.

 How does demand fall short of supply? Page 89 onwards


 It breeds from the existing 'uncertainty' which influences the
'inducement to invest.' This uncertainty, unlike risk, is
immeasurable. The uncertainty may be small in the short period,
but it increases exponentially as we move from one period to the
next.

 Assumption #4 - The classical economists not only relied on the


perfect knowledge of future events. They also relied on automatic
adjustment mechanisms within the markets. The chief of these
mechanisms was flexible wages (page 93). (Read it again)

 POLICY IMPLICATIONS (Page 95 onwards)


 Two parts: policies to rescue an economy from a slump, and policies
to keep it out of a slump.
 Two policy instruments : monetary and fiscal policy. The General
Theory was based on an assumption of 'closed' economy.
 Why would people want to hold money when there is an option of
buying interest-bearing instruments ? The answer is uncertainty.
 Uncertainty as to the future rate of interest. If these future
rates were foreseeable, people would buy interest-bearing
instruments if it were advantageous for them to do so.
 Liquidity trap ?
 Monetary policy alone cannot rescue us from a liquidity trap. It
needs a supporting fiscal policy to do so.
 Skepticism over credit money economy. The supply of credit is
determined by the demand for credit which expands or contracts
with entrepreneurs' confidence in the future market. Thus, credit
may dry up even in scenarios when money is 'cheap' and expand in
scenarios when it is 'expensive'. In such a case, monetary policy
fails.

 Keynes' solution to the problem of unemployment is to use the


monetary policy to establish a permanent low long-term rate of
interest, and then maintain it.

 Keynes wanted government to reduce the uncertainty - government


policy should make the world more predictable.

 Ch 5 - Skidelsky (2009)
 Accepting the cure provided by Keynesian economics, governments
accepted the responsibility for maintaining high and stable levels
of employment.

 By the 1960s, the Keynesian cure started to wear down. By the


1980s, both theory and policy dialled back to pre-Keynesian ideas.
 Government was seen as a problem.
 Expansionary government policies were accused of fuelling inflation
and crowding out better-informed private investment without
reducing unemployment in the long run.

 However, Skidelsky remarks that the Keynesianism attacked by the


economists was not the Keynesianism left by Keynes.
 Uncertainty is at the core of Keynes' economics.
 Skidelsky also creates a distinction between theory and policy.
 He remarks that Keynesian revolution was largely a policy
revolution without a theory. In fact, he cites Samuelson who said
that even though the theory beyond Keynes' economics was faulty,
his policy prescriptions were practically valid.
 Skidelsky remarks that Keynes relied on uncertainty to explain the
slumps in the economy.

 New Classical Economics:


 It sought to reduce the idea of uncertainty to certainty or
calculable risk - it sought to limit the interventions by government.
 Milton Friedman was the leader of the classical counter attack (but
he was later termed as a monetarist?)
 Keynes never assumed that the economy was ever at full
employment. Friedman also agreed - but he assumed that there can
be an equilibrium level of unemployment which he called the
'natural' rate of unemployment. This natural rate is still used by
many economic models.

 Friedman took the baton from classical economics' method of


deducing outcomes from the logic of individual choice. Rational
self-interest against were forward looking.

 Quantitative easing ?

-----------------------------------------------------------------------


 Paul Krugman, 'Introduction by Paul Krugman' in John Maynard
Keynes, The General Theory of Employment (Palgrave Macmillan
2018)
 The 2008 financial crisis revived the Keynesian economics, which
had been pronounced dead decades before. The policy responses to
2008 crisis were rooted in Keynes's original ideas.
 It is often assumed that Keynes's ideas were a leftist tract, a call
for big government and high taxes. But Krugman remarks that
Keynes was no socialist, he came to save capitalism, not to bury it.
 Keynes did not argue for government takeover of the whole
economy. Rather, his solution was that less intrusive government
policies could ensure effective demand, allowing the economy to
recover.
 Summary of The General Theory in four points:
o Economies often suffer from an overall lack of demand,
which leads to involuntary unemployment.
o The free-market mechanism, which is claimed to correct the
shortfalls in demand, operates very slowly to have a real
effect in the short term.
o The government policies may stimulate demand, and
consequently, can reduce unemployment quickly.
o Sometimes increasing the money supply won't be enough to
persuade the private sector to spend more, and government
spending must step into to recover the economy.
 Relationship between wages and employment?

 Perfect wage flexibility?


 Keynes leaned in favour of the idea of rigidity of wages. He argued
against the argument that fall in wages can increase employment.

 Classical model as Keynes encountered was much harder to fix.


 It was model in which Say's Kaw applied - supply automatically
creates its own demand, because income must be spent. Interest
rates were purely a matter of supply and demand for funds, with no
possible role for money or monetary policy.

 Keynes did not sought to explain the business cycles - booms and
busts. Rather, his focus was on this question: given that overall
demand is depressed, how can we create more employment ?

 Keynes monetary policy prescriptions?

 Krugman remarks that two of the three predictions actually came


true by the events post the 2008 crisis.
 What Keynes missed ?

 Coming back to the main question: given that overall demand is


depressed, how can we create more employment ?
 Mass unemployment was a result of inadequate demand. The
solution to this was, an expansionary fiscal policy.

 Robert Skidelsky, 'Afterword by Robert Skidelsky' in John


Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment (Palgrave
Macmillan 2018) pp. 373
 He disagrees with Krugman on certain points.
 First he says that the idea behind the theory of liquidity
preference is that people accumulate money rather than spend it,
because they regard the future as uncertain and hoard money
against this uncertainty. This prevents the rate of interest from
falling sufficiently to ensure full employment.
 Why money as security ? Because it is not perishable.
 Krugman doesn't explain why people accumulate in the first place.
 Second, Keynes dismissal of monetary policy had nothing to do with
the close to zero interest rates. Rather, it had to with his
judgment about the psychological attitude to liquidity.

 Edward Dickens, 'Keynes's Theory of Monetary Policy: An Essay in


Historical Reconstruction' (2011) 30 Contributions to Political
Economy 1
 Keynes's monetary policy - three concepts:
o Investment multiplier
o Marginal efficiency of capital
o Interest rate

 Robert Skidelsky - Money and Government (2018)


 Ch 5
 Managing expectation plays a key role in Keynes's scheme of
monetary therapy. The message was clear: he who would control
money has to control expectations about future prices.

 Ch 6
 Ch 7

 PART III - WHO ARE THE (TRUE) KEYNESIANS ?

Common questions

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The 2008 financial crisis led to a resurgence of Keynesian economics as previously dominant economic policies failed to address the downturn effectively. Before the crisis, there was a reliance on classical economics, which favored minimal government intervention and trusted market mechanisms. However, these policies were inadequate in dealing with the severe recession caused by the crisis. The Keynesian approach advocated for government intervention through fiscal policy to stimulate demand and stabilize the economy, proving more effective under the circumstances. The crisis validated some of Keynes's ideas about the need for active policy measures to counteract economic slumps .

During the post-Keynesian period, expansionary government policies faced criticism for allegedly causing inflation and crowding out private investment without effectively reducing unemployment in the long run. This critique led to a shift back to classical economic ideas by the 1980s, where government intervention was minimized, and market mechanisms were favored. Critics argued that expansionary fiscal policies interfered with market signals and micromanaged the economy, leading to inefficiencies. However, it's noted that the Keynesianism critiqued by these economists diverged from Keynes's original ideas, which were focused on stabilizing employment without extensive government takeover of economic functions .

In Keynes's economic theory, uncertainty, unlike risk, is an immeasurable and unpredictable factor that significantly influences economic behavior, particularly investment decisions. While risk can be calculated and managed using probabilities, uncertainty lacks this computable aspect, leading to cautious behavior, such as increased liquidity preference and lower investment. This distinction is crucial because standard economic models tend to assume calculable risks, leading to predictive models that fail in uncertain environments. Keynes's emphasis on uncertainty underscores the need for policies that mitigate its adverse effects, such as stabilizing expectations and ensuring sufficient demand through fiscal measures .

Keynes proposed using fiscal policy as a primary mechanism to handle high unemployment, as monetary policy alone might not suffice, especially in a liquidity trap scenario. A liquidity trap occurs when interest rates are so low that monetary policy loses its effectiveness, necessitating active government intervention through increased public spending to boost demand. Keynes emphasized that merely lowering interest rates would be insufficient when future interest rate uncertainty leads to hoarding money rather than investing it. Thus, Keynes advocated for an integrated approach of maintaining low long-term interest rates through monetary policy while supplementing it with fiscal spending to stimulate demand and reduce unemployment .

Keynes's economic policies were fundamentally aimed at preserving capitalism by addressing its shortcomings, such as high unemployment and inadequate demand, without advocating for socialism. He proposed that government intervention could stabilize markets in ways that allowed the capitalist system to function more efficiently and equitably. This approach was not about state ownership or extensive control over the economy but rather about mitigating business cycles and ensuring full employment through targeted fiscal policies. Keynes's goal was to make capitalism more resilient and sustainable by using government tools to smooth out economic fluctuations, contrasting with the socialist agenda of state-determined economic activity .

The 'marginal efficiency of capital' (MEC) in Keynesian economics refers to the expected rate of return over cost for new capital investment. Investment decisions are influenced by MEC; if it exceeds the interest rate, it encourages investment, whereas if it falls below the interest rate, investment diminishes. This relationship underscores the intuitive mechanism by which investors make decisions based on projected profitability versus borrowing costs .

In Keynesian economics, uncertainty, which is inherently immeasurable, negatively impacts the inducement to invest. Unlike risk, uncertainty cannot be quantified, leading to reduced confidence among investors as they cannot reliably predict future returns. This uncertainty increases over time, exacerbating its effects on investment. The policy implications of this are significant, as governments are encouraged to implement measures that reduce uncertainty and stabilize expectations, thus fostering a more predictable economic environment that encourages investment .

Keynes critiqued the notion of perfect wage flexibility, which posited that lowering wages would lead to increased employment. He argued that wage rigidity is beneficial in maintaining stable employment levels. In reality, wage cuts can reduce overall demand because workers have less income to spend, which can exacerbate unemployment rather than alleviate it. Keynes asserted that relying solely on wage flexibility ignored the broader issue of insufficient demand, which is central to employment levels. His stance was that maintaining stable levels of aggregate demand through fiscal policy interventions is more effective in addressing mass unemployment than relying on wage adjustments .

Skidelsky highlights that while the Keynesian revolution was largely a policy shift towards government intervention and demand management, the accompanying theoretical framework was less robust and not well-developed. He notes that Keynes's ideas were often implemented in policy without a rigorous theoretical foundation, relying more on practical success than theoretical strength. This led to a distinction where Keynes's recommendations were seen as empirically driven policy measures rather than grounded in a complete theoretical overhaul of economics. Despite this, the policies were successful in stabilizing demand and addressing unemployment, demonstrating the practical relevance of Keynes's insights even if the underlying theory lacked comprehensive formalization .

A liquidity trap occurs when interest rates are extremely low, and people prefer holding cash over investing in interest-bearing securities due to uncertainty about future interest rates. In this scenario, monetary policy becomes ineffective because lowering interest rates further does not incentivize additional spending or investment. According to Keynesian economics, in a liquidity trap, the government must employ fiscal policy measures, such as increasing public spending, to boost demand and stimulate economic growth, as traditional monetary tools fail to achieve the desired economic outcomes .

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