Russian Politics Under Putin: The System Will Outlast the Master

Author(s): Gleb Pavlovsky

Source: Foreign Affairs , MAY/JUNE 2016, Vol. 95, No. 3 (MAY/JUNE 2016), pp. 10-17
Published by: Council on Foreign Relations

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 embraced a cult of personality: portrai
Russian Politics of Putin appear in many Russian homes
and busts of Putin crowd department
Under Putin store shelves. This aesthetic of dictator-
ship encourages the idea that the Russian
state is Putins property.
The System Will Outlast The trouble with that diagnosis is
the Master that it cannot explain Russia's recent
erraticism. Putin is hardly a mysterious
Gleb Pavlovský figure; his biography is well known.
And his many opponents, despite their
best efforts, have found no Machiavel-
lian depravity in Putins character. His
as a consultant to the Kremlin, hypocrisy and penchant for gambling
Between advising asadvising
a consultant
Russian 1996 Russian
Presidents Borisand to Presidents 2011, the Kremlin, 1 served Boris are fundamentally rational and devoid
Yeltsin, Vladimir Putin, and Dmitry of eccentricity.
Medvedev. And yet even I can hardly So if the Russian state were nothing
claim to understand the real mechanisms more than an extension of Putin, how
of power in today s Russia. In the past would one explain the reckless decision
few years, the country has reached a to invade and annex Crimea in 2014 or
level of dysfunction that has pushed it tothe risky military intervention in Syria
the brink, threatening its very existence. that Russia launched last year? If Russia
Ill-conceived military adventures, poor were a pure autocracy, such actions would
decision-making, and political skulldug-suggest a leader with a personality like
gery - sometimes of the lethal variety - Stalins or Mussolinis. But there are
have wreaked havoc on Russia's economy no evil geniuses in the Kremlin today.
and led to international isolation. Rather, powerful figures such as Sergei
Some have concluded that the Ivanov, Putin's chief of staff; Vladislav
problem is simply one of autocracy, that
Surkov, Putin's chief adviser on political
strategy; and even Putin himself are
there is no longer any distinction between
the Kremlin and Putin. As Vyacheslav more akin to experienced, competent
Volodin, a high-level domestic policy bureaucrats, generally able to exercise
aide to Putin, has publicly said, "Whileadministrative control, even if they act
Putin is there, so is Russia; once Putinmostly in their own interest.
is gone, so is Russia." This conception The reality, as attested by the past
of Putin as sole sovereign has developedtwo years of chaos, is that despite his
image as an all-powerful tsar, Putin
only gradually. In a 2002 census question-
naire, Putin described himself as "an has never managed to build a bureau-
employee working in management, cratically successful authoritarian state.
providing services to the people." Today,Instead, he has merely crafted his own
he has eschewed that modest image and version of sistema , a complex practice
GLEB PAVLOVSKÝ is President of the Russia
of decision-making and power manage-
Institute and the Foundation for Effective ment that has long defined Russian
Politics, in Moscow. politics and society and that will outlast

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 Russian Politics Under Putin

Putin himself. Putin has mastered sistema,and had him sacked from both his
but he has not replaced itwith "Putinism" positions; a criminal investigation of
or a "Putin system." Someday, Putin him soon emerged, and he fled Russia.
will go. But sistema will stay. The hoped-for investments in the North
Caucasus project never emerged. Today,
PUTIN'S PENTHOUSE the corporation is developing just two
ski resorts
The first version of Putin s system was in the region. Those who
called "managed democracy," and participated
it lasted in other commercial projects
from when Putin first won office, during
in 2000,
Medvedev s presidency suffered
to 2012, the final year of Medvedev
huge slosses after Putin returned to office,
four-year stint as president, during
and which
they had to go to great lengths to
Putin still exercised a great deal of sure they had not overstepped any
make
power and authority During that boundaries
12 -year and would not be put on trial.
Putin
period, decisions were made at the veryhas told friends that one billionaire,
top and passed down a "power vertical,"
after receiving assurances that his access
to theto
moving from the federal level down Kremlin would be maintained,
the regional and local ones. In those on his knees from the door of
crawled
days, we talked about an "administrative
the presidential office to Putins desk.
market," because presidential or prime-
Not expecting that, Putin was amused.
ministerial decisions were securities thatWhile managed democracy lasted,
had a quantifiable value. Consequently, wealthy players knew that once a contract,
they could be resold or reassigned. sale, or merger of theirs reached a suffi-
In 2010, for example, Medvedev ciently high level, it was time for them to
decided to create a public-private hybrid see Putin to explain the project. If Putin
corporation to develop tourism in the accepted it, they were told that his
North Caucasus. A coalition of state- agreement was "placed on deposit." Yet in
owned banks, regional authorities, and his third presidential term, Putin added
local businesses swarmed around the a layer of uncertainty to this process by
project, which received around $2 billionextending the power vertical, building a
in initial government funding and was higher level that he alone occupies: a pri-
projected to attract another $13 billion vate penthouse. Today, he is only "kept
in private investment. Medvedev arranged up to date with the situation," as his press
for Akhmed Bilalov s appointment as secretary, Dmitry Peskov, usually reports.
board chair of the new corporation; at Those who meet with Putin leave with
the time, Bilalov was also vice presidentonly a vague idea of what they are
of the Russian Olympic Committee and
supposed to do. They try their best to
overseeing preparations for the 2014 remember every word Putin said, so
Winter Olympics in Sochi. But when that one day, they can quote him. Those
Medvedev and Putin switched offices words are the only license they have.
in 2012, with Putin returning to the
presidency and Medvedev becoming NO ONE TO SAY NO

prime minister, Putin reasserted him- This new governance style relies on
self and conducted a purge of sorts. indirection and interpretation rather
He criticized Bilalov for delays in Sochi than command and control. Approval

May/June 2016 11

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Gleb Pavlovský

for any particular proposal takes the And throughout 2014, thousands of
form of otmashka , which can be trans- individual Russian volunteers crossed

lated as "go-ahead," implying not so the virtually nonexistent border to join

much an order as a license to act in a anti-Kiev militias. Putin could simply
desired direction. Otmashka is granted say: You cant stop the guys; they'll get
to projects that the Kremlin deems there by themselves anyway. Give the
priemlemo , an increasingly common lads some protection, but make sure
term that means "acceptable" rather things don't get out of hand.
than, say, "satisfactory" or "excellent"- Were such remarks directives? Not
a word choice meant to imply a certain from Putin's perspective.
indifference to details. Putin never reveals his goals. The
Kremlin critics complain about a most minute maneuvers take the form

"Moscow autocracy," but how can of special operations in the Kremlin,

minions do their jobs when it is not as officials theatrically seek to hide the
clear what the autocrat really wants? obvious. Today, for instance, they are
The bottom and middle of Putins concealing their preparations for the
power vertical are always in search of 2018 presidential election. Putin consid-
the top, like Pirandello's six characters ers his succession of Yeltsin in 2000 as

in search of an author. That is why something of an ideal political operation,

today, significant actions on Russia's equaled perhaps only by the annexation
part rarely stem from Kremlin direc- of Crimea. The same team that engineered
tives but rather result from a sort of the succession and Putin's subsequent
contest among Kremlin-related groups, elections is still governing Russia. Trans-
each seeking to prove its loyalty. formed from a campaign committee into
This dynamic has been on display in a presidential entourage, the team has
Ukraine. Although the annexation of changed only marginally in its composi-
Crimea involved a precisely planned tion. These are people who have never
military operation, Russian action in once told Putin, "You can't do that."
Ukraine since then has lacked coordina- Putin does not consult them for strategic
tion. Beginning in early 2014, a number advice, preferring to discuss the particu-
of Russian groups with various interests lars of special operations. At meetings,
and strategies became active in the he asks specific questions of his subordi-
conflict in the Donbas region of eastern nates, and they supply answers; there is
Ukraine, which pits pro-Russian sepa- no larger discussion. His decision-making
ratists against the government in Kiev. has become almost purely reactive. It is
Ukrainian businessmen turned politiciansbased not on goals but rather on current
who had long been close to the Kremlin threats. There will always be more threats,
sponsored and encouraged early protests the thinking goes, so why discuss future
in the region against the central govern- ones when you have to deal with the
ment in Kiev. Grandees of Putins entou- current ones?

rage, such as the billionaire financier

and self-described "Orthodox patriot" CURATION NATION

Konstantin Malofeev, allegedly bank- An important feature of Putin's rule is

rolled pro-Russian separatist militias. the presence of what are known in the

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 Russian Politics Under Putin

My buddy and me: Ramzan Kadyrov and Vladimir Putin in Grozny , October 2008

Kremlin as "curators," semiofficial figures eastern Ukraine; the costs and risks were
through whom state governance flows. growing too large. Putin found, however,
A curator is a political bureaucrat, a project that it was easier to give a curator a
manager authorized by the Kremlin to go-ahead to advance than a go-ahead
operate through personal agents. The to retreat. Chechnya's strongman ruler,
curator is not publicly responsible for his Ramzan Kadyrov, proved able to bring
agents' actions, and the agents follow his all his fighters home as soon as it seemed
instructions only as long as they benefit as if Putin wanted to dial down the

from doing so. If a curator meets resis- fighting. But the curators proved unable
tance, he is free to punish the recalcitrant to do so, and many fighters stayed put
party, either through bureaucratic means far longer than Putin wished.
or by replacing him with another agent. Curators also create jurisdictional
>
r The trouble with curators is that its conflicts by stepping on one another's
w
X
w far easier to set them loose than to rein toes. In the aftermath of the Malaysia
Ki

z them in. Consider the Donbas conflict. Airlines crisis, Putin gave Surkov tempo-
w
O
r
Putin allowed a number of curators to rary diplomatic authority to restore order
oo

W
K!
send fighters over the border to join in the Donbas - another new curator. As
>
pro-Russian militias. But by the sum- a result, during the talks in Minsk that
►d

O
mer of 2014, when a militia apparently produced a formal Donbas truce in early
shot down a civilian Malaysia Airlines 2015, Surkov wound up playing as impor-
m
H
H

jet over Ukraine, killing nearly 300 tant a role as Russian Foreign Minister
Ki

s
>
O people, it became clear that Moscow Sergey Lavrov, which led to tension
needed to scale back its involvement in between the two influential Putin men.
M
c/3

May/June 2016 13

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Gleb Pavlovský

More generally, Lavrov finds himself enjoy unlimited access to all national
in a difficult situation. Foreign policy is resources, public or private, with a kin
Putins domain, and Lavrov is mostly of permanent state of emergency in
Putins personal ambassador, one who which every level of society- businesse
can be dispatched and recalled. Once social and ethnic groups, powerful clan
called back to Moscow, he no longer and even criminal gangs- is drafted
represents anyone. So although Lavrov into solving what the Kremlin labels
wants the Minsk agreement to hold, so "urgent state problems." Under Putin,
that the situation in the Donbas does sistema has become a method for makin
not spiral out of control, an atmosphere deals among businesses, powerful play-
of military escalation would actually ers, and the people. Business has not
bolster his position. Indeed, the conflict taken over the state, nor vice versa; th
in Ukraine turned Lavrov into a nation- two have merged in a union of total
ally popular figure. Then again, that is and seamless corruption.
not a particular safe status in Putins In this version of sistema , a govern-
Russia. After the Medvedev experiment, ment minister who does nothing but
Putin decided there would be no more give his staff a directive and oversee it
seconds-in-command. implementation is considered an idler
To do his job properly, he must involve
THE SISTEMA IS BROKEN some "real" people - that is, he has to
In her 2013 book, Can Russia Modernise? ,
open things up so that private interest
the political theorist Alena Ledeneva
and powerful individuals can profit in
some way. Thus, "orders" become "deals
applied the term sistema to contemporary
Russian governance. During the in
Soviet
Putins sistema , governance requires
the temporary appropriation of the
era, that word referred to the relationship
among the state, the Communiststate Party regulator by groups of players.
apparatus, and the people. Ledeneva
While participating in this game, a
player may alternate his roles, moving
defined the term more broadly, writing
that its meaning was "elusive" butfrom private entrepreneur to law
suggested "the paradoxical ways inenforcer,
which while continuing to benefit
from the deals. Sistema can often work
things get done in practice- adhering
to official rules and formal procedures
quite well, at least in the short term.
but also following unwritten codesIn and
2010, Anatoly Serdyukov, who served
practical norms." as Russia's defense minister from 2007
I have used the term in my owntowork,
2012, launched a $430 billion reform
as well, and I define sistema as a style ofthat involved notorious instances
program
of corruption but that also successfully
exercising power that turns the country's
modernized the Russian armed forces.
people into temporary operating resources,
against their wills and in breach of Sistema
their is perhaps most visibly
embodied
rights. Sistema is a deep-seated facet of by the Federation Council,
Russian culture that goes beyond the
politics
upper house of Russia's parliament.
and ideology, and it will persist The
longcouncil is essentially a club whose
after Putins rule has ended. Sistema members consist of institutional, regional,
combines the idea that the state should and business interests that set up

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competing "projects." A winning project
transforms a council member into a

temporary monopolist who in turn

distributes some of the spoils to many Hlllļl THE MIT PRESS
smaller beneficiaries. Russians are sincere

in their denunciation of corrupt officials,

CHINA'S NEXT
and yet they defend and take pleasure STRATEGIC
in the paternalist comfort of sistema . ADVANTAGE
From Imitation to
They are proud of its maneuverability
Innovation
and flexibility: you can always find a George [Link]
way to get something done. and Bruce McKern

. . an eye-opening
book about the startling
STATE-SPONSORED COMEDY
growth of innovation
Sistema is flexible, but there is one in Chinese companies.
Using hundreds of cases,
constant: a ruling team that protects they leave no doubt that
China is now a major
its grip on power. The electoral system force in innovation with
in Russia is well developed and highly an increasing global
reach. The case that
sophisticated. It is also completely
engagement with the
useless. Elections are separated from Chinese system is essen-
tial for business success
the process of endowing the state with
in the coming decades is
power; they amount to nothing more compelling."
than an expensive ritual. - A. Michael Spence,
Nobel Laureate in Eco-
Take, for example, the way that nomics, 2001
regional gubernatorial elections work.
Putin approves a candidate, following DRONE
Remote Control Warfare
internal negotiations within the Kremlin;
Hugh Gusterson
assessments by the regional curator; "Gusterson makes it clear
and dealmaking among cabinet mem- why we don't speak
clearly about drones.
bers, local businesses, and alternative
Only by muddying the
candidates who are given assistance waters can we bear to
acknowledge what we
with their business problems in ex- have invented: a new
change for staying out of the way. The and oddly intimate way-
station in the mechaniza-
anointed candidates campaign head- tion of death."
quarters is formed by a regional curator. - Sherry Turkle
Sometimes, the campaign is con-
ducted "over the candidate s head,"
as the saying goes in Russia. Local
businesses compete with one another,
trying to express their loyalty to the
candidate as convincingly as possible.
Their motivation is simple: the threat
of losing what they have, be it a retail
business, a meat processing factory, [Link]
or construction contracts.

15

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Gleb Pavlovský

However absurd this system may be, but no one was worried too much about
no governor ģis going to complain about the future. And when prices inevitably
it publicly. It is a state-sponsored com- began to fall, sistema responded to the
edy, crucial to maintaining Putins aura threat by escalating, rather than retrench-
of legitimacy by justifying his right to ing, and finding new "urgent state
perpetual reelection. When Putin was problems." (One of the ironies of sistema
first elected president, in 2000, he won is that despite the fact that Putin hates
just under 53 percent of the vote. To disorder, he is sometimes forced to
borrow from Max Weber s classic catego- manufacture and sell it.) When controlled
ries of authority, Putin s legitimacy at emergencies could not be ginned up
that point stemmed from the "rational- inside the country, foreign adventures
legal authority" bestowed on an elected sufficed: first Ukraine, then Syria, and
leader. But over the years, Putin also now tensions with Turkey.
began to draw legitimacy from what But the Donbas conflict revealed the

Weber called "charismatic authority." difference between sistema and a genu-

(As Weber wrote of the charismatic inely functioning system of state institu-
leader: "Men do not obey him by virtue tions. Moscow had the full support of
of tradition or statute, but because they the Russian-speaking local population
believe in him") For a long time, Putin to build a separate state, but it failed to
enjoyed a hybrid form of legitimacy that do so. Whenever the need arose for a
combined those two kinds of authority; managerial decision, key figures fell
many Russians came to see him as pos- out of the picture. And if someone did
sessing an almost magical ability to win manage to make a decision, no one was
office for any term and at any time. able to implement it. By the middle of
That image is being severely tested 2014, as Western sanctions began to bite,
today, as ordinary Russians begin to it became clear that Moscow wanted to

feel the effects of a failing economy dial down the conflict. But sistema has
and a falling ruble. What is more, the no retreat mode. De-escalation in eastern

state has begun to extract money from Ukraine meant escalation in Syria.
the people through a proliferation of New risks keep emerging, frightening
new fines, including new road tolls and even the most loyal bureaucrats. But the
penalties for taking part in unauthorized Kremlin dare not suppress the publics
rallies. It s hard for a leader to preserve seemingly bottomless appetite for escala-
his charismatic authority when his tion. In state-run media, which the vast
government turns into a glorified majority of Russians rely on for news,
fine-collecting machine. the Kremlin no longer distinguishes
between analysis and propaganda. The
NO RETREAT, NO SURRENDER fake reality on offer seems to have partly
captured even Putins mind.
At the beginning of the Putin era, the
Kremlin bet on raw materials and won.

Everyone knew that making Russias BRAND MANAGEMENT

economy more reliant on rising energy In sistema , governing is not about

prices was risky and would probably making decisions within certain norms
lead to a dead end in a decade or two, but about contending with the very

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 Russian Politics Under Putin

existence of the norms and, ideally, But he did not take the bait; he seems to
circumventing them. Decision-making have grasped the boundary of his power.
via go-aheads and meaningful omissionsPutin the man is now the manager of
has yielded a contest in which lower- Putin the brand, which he must handle
level curators try to outdo one another with care. Kadyrov controls an army
in their demonstrations of loyalty to and is more than willing to use it, as
Putin, with increasingly worrying [Link] demonstrated in eastern Ukraine.
These include the 2006 murder of the Everyone in Moscow is scared of Kadyrov,
reporter Anna Politkovskaya and the 2010 and his strength remains one of Putin's
assault on the journalist Oleg Kashin, personal resources; it would make little
both of whom were fierce critics of the sense for Putin to punish Kadyrov over
Kremlin. It might also include the 2006 Nemtsov's murder.
assassination of Alexander Litvinenko, a Still, Putin's absence after the killing
former Russian intelligence officer who served as a reminder of one of sistema' s
had become a Putin critic. Such acts of most important features: fear and uncer-
violence exposed the extent to which tainty regarding what happens when the
leader is gone. Kremlin authorities have
the curatorial system lacks control. But
Putin is a pragmatist, and while thingsno clue what they would do in Putin's
were working, he tolerated them. absence. They have nowhere to discuss
Last year's assassination of the any potential scenarios for a future state
opposition politician Boris Nemtsov, without Putin; indeed, they have been
however, clearly went beyond Putin's directly banned from having such
limits. Gould Putin have said somethingdiscussions.
about Nemtsov that someone could have Putin's Kremlin team has been
taken as a go-ahead to kill him? That extremely skillful at nationalizing
seems impossible to me. I have never private resources and, in a sense,
heard anything like that from Putin, privatizing Russian politics. But they
even with regard to people he hates. will have no idea how to run Russia
Putin sometimes mocked Nemtsov a when Putin is gone. In all likelihood, it
bit, but he tolerated him. After the will not matter who climbs to the top:
assassination, Putin disappeared for a the only way he will be able to rule is
few days - apparently, what had hap- through sistema .©
pened was too unexpected. It soon
emerged that the alleged perpetrators
were linked to Kadyrov, the Chechen
leader, who is zealously loyal to Putin
(and whom Putin, in return, has allowed
to build a private fiefdom in Chechnya).
The conspiracy against Nemtsov was
probably a conspiracy against Putin,
too, albeit one set up so that it could be
written off as another act of "excessive
loyalty." Putin saw it as an attempt to
put distance between him and Kadyrov.

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