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Probability Analysis for Genotypes

Q: What is the probability that Amy’s phenotype is A, given the genotypes of her grandparents, and how is this probability calculated?

The probability that Amy’s phenotype is A is calculated based on the possible genotypes of her parents, considering her grandparents' genotypes. For Amy to have phenotype A, she must have the AO genotype. The probability calculation involves considering different combinations of parental genotypes that would lead to an AO genotype for Amy. The probability is calculated as 1/3 .

Q: In a scenario with four prisoners where A asks about B or C’s fate, what are the conditional probabilities of A and D being pardoned given B will be executed? How is this derived?

The conditional probability that A is pardoned given B will be executed is 1/4, and for D being pardoned under the same condition, it is 3/8. This probability is derived by considering the combinations of pardons and executions provided, using Bayes' Theorem to calculate the probability of being pardoned given the guard reveals B's execution .

Q: Given that Amy’s phenotype is A, what is the conditional probability that her father’s phenotype is B, and how is this conclusion reached?

The conditional probability that Amy's father has phenotype B given Amy's phenotype is A is 1/2. This conclusion is reached by analyzing the genotype combinations from Amy's grandparents that would allow her to have an A phenotype and then considering which combinations result in the father's phenotype being B, leading to a probability of 1/2 .

Q: What is the probability distribution of the number of phenotypes B among Father, Mother, and Amy, and how are the PMF and CDF constructed?

The random variable X represents the number of B phenotypes among Father, Mother, and Amy. The PMF is constructed by evaluating possible combinations of B phenotypes based on the known and possible genotypes, leading to probabilities for X being 0, 1, or 2. The PMF is: P(X=0)=1/8, P(X=1)=1/2, and P(X=2)=3/8. The CDF is the cumulative sum of these probabilities: F(x=0)=1/8, F(x=1)=5/8, and F(x=2)=1 .

Q: How do you calculate and interpret the variance of a transformed random variable if Y = 3X - 2?

The variance of the transformed random variable Y = 3X - 2 is calculated as Var(Y) = 9Var(X). Given Var(X) is 2.05, Var(Y) becomes 18.45. This calculation shows that the variance is scaled by the square of the transformation factor (3), reflecting that the dispersion of Y is greater than that of X by a factor of 9 .

Q: When a coin is flipped five times and balls are placed in a bowl, how does this setup affect the computation of the probability for two balls drawn to both be red?

The probability that two balls drawn are both red is calculated using the total probability rule by considering all possible numbers of heads (thus red balls) from five flips, each with a respective probability of drawing two red from that set. Summing these individual probabilities given 0 to 5 heads gives a probability of 3/8 for selecting two red balls .

Q: In a five-coin flip scenario used to determine the color of balls placed in a bowl, how does the PMF of selecting red balls change, and what's its significance?

The PMF for the number of red balls, X, selected by choosing two balls at random from the bowl, is calculated by considering all possible combinations of coin outcomes. The PMF values are P(X=0)=1/4, P(X=1)=1/2, P(X=2)=1/4. This PMF shows that selecting exactly one red ball is most probable, illustrating the bimodal nature of the distribution resulting from the uniformity of the coin tosses .

Q: How does the conditional probability that Amy’s phenotype is B change when her father’s phenotype is already known to be B?

Knowing that Amy’s father has phenotype B changes the conditional probability for Amy’s phenotype being B to 1/2. Initially, the probability of Amy having a B phenotype is 1/2. When it’s given that her father’s phenotype is B, the probability of Amy having phenotype B remains 1/2, leading to an unchanged conclusion that her having a B phenotype is equally likely under these conditions .

Q: How does the Expectation of a transformed variable Y = 3X - 2 differ from the expectation of X, and how is it calculated?

The Expectation of the transformed variable Y = 3X - 2 is calculated by substituting E(X) into the transformation equation, leading to E(Y) = 3*E(X) - 2. Given E(X) = 2.5, the expectation of Y becomes E(Y) = 3*2.5 - 2 = 5.5 .

Q: What is the PMF of transformed random variable Z, where Z = X^2, and how is the CDF constructed from the PMF?

The PMF of Z, where Z = X^2, takes values depending on X’s defined values (1, 2, 3, 5). Thus, Z takes values 1, 4, 9, 25. The PMF is: P(Z=1)=0.3, P(Z=4)=0.3, P(Z=9)=0.2, and P(Z=25)=0.2. The CDF is constructed by cumulative summation: F(z<1)=0, F(1≤z<4)=0.3, F(4≤z<9)=0.6, F(9≤z<25)=0.8, and F(z≥25)=1 .

This document contains a statistics assignment with 3 problems. Problem 1 involves calculating probabilities related to phenotypes given genotypes of family members. The probability that Amy's phenotype is A is 1/2, and the probability it is B is 1/4. The conditional probability that the father's phenotype is B given Amy's is A is 1/3. Problem 2 extends the three prisoners problem by adding a 4th prisoner and calculating conditional probabilities. Problem 3 asks to consider a discrete random variable X with CDF F.

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Probability Analysis for Genotypes

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STAT 1012: Statistics for Life Sciences

2023-24 Term 1
Assignment #3

Problem 1 [32 points] Suppose the genotype of Amy is unknown, but the genotypes of her
four grandparents are given by the chart below:

Grandparents: BO BO AA BB

Parents: Father ?? Mother ??

Child: Amy ??

People with genotype AA, AO will have phenotype A, genotype BB, BO will have phenotype
B, genotype AB will have phenotype AB, genotype OO will have phenotype O.

(a) [6 points] What is the probability that Amy’s phenotype is A? What is the probability
that Amy’s phenotype is B?
(b) [6 points] Given that Amy’s phenotype is A, what’s the conditional probability that
Father’s phenotype is B?
(c) [10 points] Given that Father’s phenotype is B, what’s the conditional probability
that Amy’s phenotype is B? Compared with the probability that Amy’s phenotype is
B, what conclusion can we get?
(d) [10 points] If we let the random variable 𝑋 be the total number of phenotypes B
among Father, Mother and Amy, please generate the Probability Mass Function
(PMF) and Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of 𝑋 and draw out the graph of
PMF and CDF.

Solution:
!
(a) 𝑃(𝑃ℎ𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 = 𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐺𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 = 𝐴𝑂 ) = " ∗ 𝑃 (𝐹𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 = 𝐵𝑂)𝑃(𝑀𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 =
! ! # ! ! !
𝐴𝐵 ) + # ∗ 𝑃(𝐹𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 = 𝑂𝑂)𝑃(𝑀𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 = 𝐴𝐵) = " ∗ " ∗ 1 + # ∗ " ∗ 1 = "
𝑃 (𝑃ℎ𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 = 𝐵 ) = 𝑃 (𝐺𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 = 𝐵𝑂 ) + 𝑃(𝐺𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 = 𝐵𝐵)
2 2
= ∗ 𝑃 (𝐹𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 = 𝐵𝐵 )𝑃(𝑀𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 = 𝐴𝐵) +
4 4
2
∗ 𝑃 (𝐹𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 = 𝐵𝑂 )𝑃(𝑀𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 = 𝐴𝐵) + ∗ (𝐹𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 = 𝑂𝑂)𝑃(𝑀𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 = 𝐴𝐵)
4
2 1 2 2 2 1 1
= × + × + × =
4 4 4 4 4 4 2

Page 1/2
! ! !
(b) 𝑃 (𝐹𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑃ℎ𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 = 𝐵|𝐴𝑚𝑦 𝑃ℎ𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 = 𝐴) = $ ÷ " = #

! # ! !
%"×"'"×"( !
(c) 𝑃 (𝐴𝑚𝑦 𝑃ℎ𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 = 𝐵|𝐹𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑃ℎ𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 = 𝐵 ) = $ =
#
"

(d) 𝑃 (𝑁𝑜 𝐵 𝑃ℎ𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒𝑠) = 𝑃 (𝐹𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑃ℎ𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 = 𝑂, 𝑀𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑃ℎ𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 =

! !
𝐴𝐵, 𝐴𝑚𝑦 𝑃ℎ𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 = 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝑂) = " ∗ 1 ∗ #
𝑃 (𝐹𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐴𝑚𝑦 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝐵 𝑃ℎ𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒𝑠 )
= 𝑃(𝐹𝑎𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑃ℎ𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 = 𝐵, 𝑀𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑃ℎ𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒 = 𝐴𝐵, 𝐴𝑚𝑦 𝑃ℎ𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑡𝑦𝑝𝑒
3 1
= 𝐵) = ∗ 1 ∗
4 2

PMF:
𝑋 0 1 2
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) 1/8 1/2 3/8
CDF:

Problem 2 [10 points] [Advanced] Three prisoners Problem extension: Four prisoners, 𝐴,
𝐵, 𝐶 and 𝐷, are on death row. The governor decides to pardon one of the four and chooses
at random the prisoner to pardon. He informs the warden of his choice but requests that
the name be kept secret for a few days. The next day, 𝐴 tries to get the warden to tell him
who had been pardoned. The warden refuses. 𝐴 then asks which of 𝐵 or 𝐶 will be
executed. The warden thinks for a while, then tells 𝐴 that 𝐵 is to be executed. Please
calculate the conditional probability that 𝐴 is pardoned given 𝐵 will die, and the
conditional probability that 𝐷 is pardoned given 𝐵 will die.

Solution:
We know that:
𝑃(𝐴 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑔𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝐵 𝑑𝑖𝑒) = 1/4 ∗ 1/2 = 1/8
𝑃(𝐴 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑔𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝐶 𝑑𝑖𝑒) = 1/4 ∗ 1/2 = 1/8
𝑃(𝐵 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑔𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝐶 𝑑𝑖𝑒) = 1/4 ∗ 1 = 1/4
𝑃(𝐶 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑔𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝐵 𝑑𝑖𝑒) = 1/4 ∗ 1 = 1/4
𝑃(𝐷 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑔𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝐵 𝑑𝑖𝑒) = 1/4 ∗ 1/2 = 1/8
𝑃(𝐷 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑔𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝐶 𝑑𝑖𝑒) = 1/4 ∗ 1/2 = 1/8

Page 2/2
Then, we have:
1/8 1
𝑃(𝐴 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑑 | 𝐵 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑑𝑖𝑒) = =
1/2 4
1/8 1
𝑃(𝐷 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑑 | 𝐵 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑑𝑖𝑒) = =
1/2 4

Alternate Solution:
Four prisoners, 𝐴, 𝐵, 𝐶 and 𝐷, are on death row. The governor decides to pardon one of
the four and chooses at random the prisoner to pardon. He informs the warden of his
choice but requests that the name be kept secret for a few days. The next day, 𝐴 tries to
get the warden to tell him who had been pardoned. The warden refuses. 𝐴 then asks
which of 𝐵 or 𝐶 or 𝐷 will be executed. The warden thinks for a while, then tells 𝐴 that
𝐵 is to be executed. Please calculate the conditional probability that 𝐴 is pardoned given
𝐵 will die, and the conditional probability that 𝐷 is pardoned given 𝐵 will die.

We know that:
𝑃(𝐴 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑔𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝐵 𝑑𝑖𝑒) = 1/12
𝑃(𝐴 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑔𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝐶 𝑑𝑖𝑒) = 1/12
𝑃(𝐴 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑔𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝐷 𝑑𝑖𝑒) = 1/12
𝑃(𝐵 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑔𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝐶 𝑑𝑖𝑒) = 1/8
𝑃(𝐵 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑔𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝐷 𝑑𝑖𝑒) = 1/8
𝑃(𝐶 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑔𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝐵 𝑑𝑖𝑒) = 1/8
𝑃 (𝐶 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑔𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝐷 𝑑𝑖𝑒) = 1/8
𝑃(𝐷 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑔𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝐵 𝑑𝑖𝑒) = 1/8
𝑃(𝐷 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑑 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑔𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑠𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝐶 𝑑𝑖𝑒) = 1/8

Then, we have:
1/12 1
𝑃(𝐴 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑑 | 𝐵 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑑𝑖𝑒) = ! ! !=
+$+$ 4
!#

1/8 3
𝑃(𝐷 𝑖𝑠 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑑𝑜𝑛𝑒𝑑 | 𝐵 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑑𝑖𝑒) = ! ! !=
+$+$ 8
!#

Problem 3 [48 points] Consider a discrete random variable X with CDF (Cumulative
Distribution Function) 𝐹(𝑥) specified below:

Page 3/2
(a) [4 Points] Please calculate the value of Pr(2 < 𝑋 ≤ 3) and Pr(𝑋 = 3)
(b) [3 Points] Please calculate the value of Pr(𝑋 = 4) and Pr(3 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 5)
(c) [3 Points] Please calculate the value of Pr(𝑋 = 6) and Pr(3 < 𝑋 ≤ 6)
(d) [4 Points] Please compute the population mean 𝜇 = E(𝑋 ).
(e) [4 Points] Please compute the population variance 𝜎 # = 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋).
(f) [4 Points] Please compute Pr(𝜇 − 𝜎 < 𝑋 ≤ 𝜇 + 𝜎).
(g) [6 Points] Please compute E[(𝑋 + 2)# ]
(h) [8 Points] If we transform the random variable 𝑋 to 𝑌 as 𝑌 = 3𝑋 − 2, please find
the Expect value of 𝑌 and the Variance of 𝑌.
(i) [12 Points] If we transform the random variable 𝑋 to 𝑍 as 𝑍 = 𝑋 # , please find the
Probability Mass Function (PMF) of 𝑍, the CDF (Cumulative Distribution Function) of
𝑍, and graph the CDF plot.
Solution:
(a) Pr(2 < 𝑋 ≤ 3) = 0.2, Pr(𝑋 = 3) = 0.2
(b) Pr(𝑋 = 4) = 0, Pr(3 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 5) = 0.4
(c) Pr(𝑋 = 6) = 0, Pr(3 < 𝑋 ≤ 6) = 0.2
(d) 𝜇 = E(𝑋 ) = 1 ∗ 0.3 + 2 ∗ 0.3 + 3 ∗ 0.2 + 5 ∗ 0.2 = 2.5
(e) 𝜎 # = 𝑉𝑎𝑟 (𝑋 ) = (1# ∗ 0.3 + 2# ∗ 0.3 + 3# ∗ 0.2 + 5# ∗ 0.2) − 2.5# = 2.05
(f) Pr(𝜇 − 𝜎 < 𝑋 ≤ 𝜇 + 𝜎) = Pr(2.5 − 1.432 < 𝑋 ≤ 2.5 + 1.432) = 0.5
(g) E[(𝑋 + 2)# ] = 𝐸 (𝑋 # + 4𝑋 + 4) = 𝐸 (𝑋 # ) + 4𝐸 (𝑋) + 4 = 8.3 + 4(2.5) + 4 = 22.3
(h) 𝐸 (𝑌 ) = 𝐸 (3𝑋 − 2) = 3𝐸 (𝑋) − 2 = 5.5, 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑌) = 𝑉𝑎𝑟(3𝑋 − 2) = 3# 𝑉𝑎𝑟(𝑋) =
18.45
(i) The possible values of X are: 1,2,3,5. Thus, the possible values of Z are: 1,4,9,25. Then the
PMF would be:
𝑃(𝑍 = 1) = 0.3, 𝑃(𝑍 = 4) = 0.3, 𝑃(𝑍 = 9) = 0.2, 𝑃(𝑍 = 25) = 0.2
CDF:
𝑃(𝑍 < 1) = 0, 𝑃 (1 ≤ 𝑍 < 4) = 0.3, 𝑃 (4 ≤ 𝑍 < 9) = 0.6
𝑃 (9 ≤ 𝑍 < 25) = 0.8, 𝑃(𝑍 ≥ 25) = 1

Problem 4 [10 points] [ADVANCED] Place 5 similar balls (either red or blue) in a bowl at
random as follows: A FAIR coin is flipped 5 independent times and a RED ball is placed in the
bowl for each head and a BLUE ball for each tail. After we placed the 5 balls in the bowl, two
balls are selected at random without replacement from the bowl.
(a) [4 points] What’s the probability that we have selected two red balls? (Hints: Use
Total Probability Rule)
(b) [6 points] If we let random variable 𝑋 be number of RED balls in the two balls we
select, please find the Probability Mass Function (PMF) of 𝑋 (Hints: we calculated
Pr (𝑋 = 2) in part(a))

Solution:
Page 4/2
(a) 𝑃(2 𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝐵𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠) = 𝑃 (2 𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝐵𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 | 5 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠)𝑃(5 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 ) +
𝑃 (2 𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝐵𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 | 4 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠, 1 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠)𝑃(4 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠, 1 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠) + 𝑃(2 𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝐵𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 | 3 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠,
2 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠)𝑃(3 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠, 2 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠) + 𝑃(2 𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝐵𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 | 2 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠, 3 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠)𝑃(2 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠,
)×" ! "×* ) *×# !+ #×! !+ ! * * ! $ !
3 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠) = )×" × *# + )×" × *# + )×" × *# + )×" × *# = *# + *# + *# + *# = *# = "
(b) 𝑃 (1 𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝐵𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 ) = 𝑃(1 𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝐵𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 | 5 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠)𝑃(5 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠) +
𝑃(1 𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝐵𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 | 4 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠, 1 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠)𝑃(4 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠, 1 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠 ) +
𝑃 (1 𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝐵𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 | 3 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠, 2 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠)𝑃(3 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠, 2 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠) +
𝑃(1 𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝐵𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 | 2 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠, 3 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠)𝑃(2 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠, 3 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠 ) +
) ! " ) * !+
𝑃 (1 𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝐵𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 | 1 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠, 4 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠)𝑃(1 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠, 4 𝑇𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠) = × *# + ) × *# + ) × *# +
)

# !+ ! ) ! " , " ! !, !
× + × = + + + + = =
) *# ) *# *# *# *# *# *# *# #

𝑃 (0 𝑅𝑒𝑑 𝐵𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠) = 𝑃(2 𝐵𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝐵𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠 ) = 1/4

𝑋 can take the values 0,1,2. Hence:

𝑋 0 1 2
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) 1/4 1/2 1/4

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