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Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing

1. The document provides instructions for calculating confidence intervals for a proportion and mean based on sample data. It also includes examples of hypothesis tests to determine if a modification increased battery life or if a sample mean is consistent with a population mean. 2. A second example is given for calculating the probability of a certain number of mistakes occurring based on a Poisson distribution. 3. The last example provides sample data but is missing key information needed to calculate the correlation coefficient as instructed.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
16 views8 pages

Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Testing

1. The document provides instructions for calculating confidence intervals for a proportion and mean based on sample data. It also includes examples of hypothesis tests to determine if a modification increased battery life or if a sample mean is consistent with a population mean. 2. A second example is given for calculating the probability of a certain number of mistakes occurring based on a Poisson distribution. 3. The last example provides sample data but is missing key information needed to calculate the correlation coefficient as instructed.

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mesfindukedom
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© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Department of management

Statistics Assignment

Submission date: February 8, 2024


Submitted to:
1. A market research survey in which 60 consumers were
contacted states that 65% of all consumers of a certain
product were motivated by the product’s advertising. Find
the confidence limits for the proportion of consumers
QUEENS’ COLLEGE DISTANCE
motivated by advertising in the population, given a
confidence level equal to 0.95.
EDUCATION
To find the confidence limits for the proportion ofDIVISION
consumers motivated by advertising in the
population, we will use the formula for the confidence interval of a proportion:
Confidence Interval = p ± Z * √(p(1-p)/n)
where p is the sample proportion (0.65), Z is the Z-score corresponding to the desired confidence
level (1.96 for 0.95 confidence level), and n is the sample size (60).
Confidence Interval = 0.65 ± 1.96 * √ (0.65(1-0.65)/60)
Confidence Interval = 0.65 ± 1.96 * √ (0.2275/60)
Confidence Interval = 0.65 ± 1.96 * 0.0721
Confidence Interval = 0.65 ± 0.1415
The confidence limits for the proportion of consumers motivated by advertising in the population
are 0.5085 (50.85%) and 0.7915 (79.15%) with a 95% confidence level.

2. In Name…………...Mekides
a random selection of 64 of Eshibelachew
the 2400 intersections in a
city, the mean number of car accidents per year was 3.2 and
theIDsample
NO………standard deviation was 0.8. Obtain the 90%
confidence interval for the mean number of accidents per
intersection per year.
Study center………
To obtain the 90% confidence interval for the mean number of accidents per intersection per
year, we will use the formula for the confidence interval of a mean:
Confidence Interval = X̄ ± Z * (σ/√n)
Entry year…………
where X̄ is the sample mean (3.2), Z is the Z-score corresponding to the desired confidence level
(1.645 for a 90% confidence level), σ is the population standard deviation (unknown in this
case), and n is the sample size (64).
Since the population standard deviation is unknown, we will use the sample standard deviation
(0.8) as an estimate. However, it's important to note that this assumes the sample is
representative of the population.
Confidence Interval = 3.2 ± 1.645 * (0.8/√64)
Confidence Interval = 3.2 ± 1.645 * (0.8/8)
Confidence Interval = 3.2 ± 1.645 * 0.1
Confidence Interval = 3.2 ± 0.1645
The confidence limits for the mean number of accidents per intersection per year are 3.0355 and
3.3645 with a 90% confidence level.
This means that we can be 90% confident that the true mean number of accidents per intersection
per year falls within this range based on the given sample data.

3. From past records it is known that the mean life of a battery


used in a digital clock is 305 days. The lives of the batteries
are normally distributed. The battery was recently modified
to last longer. A sample of 20 modified batteries were tested.
It was discovered that the mean life was 311 days. And the
sample standard deviation was 12 days. At the 0.05 level of
significance, did the modification increase the mean life of
the battery?
To determine if the modification increased the mean life of the battery, we can perform a
hypothesis test.
The null hypothesis (H0) assumes that the modification did not increase the mean life of the
battery, while the alternative hypothesis (H1) assumes that the modification did increase the
mean life of the battery.
H0: μ = 305 (The mean life of the battery is 305 days)
H1: μ > 305 (The mean life of the battery is greater than 305 days)
We will use a one-sample t-test to compare the sample mean (311 days) with the known
population mean (305 days). The test statistic is calculated as:
t = (X̄ - μ) / (s / √n)
where X̄ is the sample mean (311 days), μ is the population mean (305 days), s is the sample
standard deviation (12 days), and n is the sample size (20).
t = (311 - 305) / (12 / √20)
t = 6 / (12 / √20)
t = 6 / (12 / 4.472)
t = 6 / 2.683
t = 2.238
Next, we need to compare the calculated t-value with the critical t-value at the 0.05 level of
significance with (n-1) degrees of freedom. Since the sample size is 20, the degrees of freedom is
19.
Looking up the critical t-value in a t-table or using statistical software, we find that the critical t-
value for a one-tailed test at the 0.05 level of significance with 19 degrees of freedom is
approximately 1.729.
Since the calculated t-value (2.238) is greater than the critical t-value (1.729), we reject the null
hypothesis. Therefore, based on the given data, we can conclude that the modification did
increase the mean life of the battery at the 0.05 level of significance.

4. Suppose we are interested in a population of 20 industrial


units of the same size, all of which are experiencing excessive
labor turnover problems. The past records show that the
mean of the distribution of annual turnover is 320
employees, with a standard deviation of 75 employees. A
sample of 5 of these industrial units is taken at random
which gives a mean of annual turnover as 300 employees. Is
the sample mean consistent with the population mean? Test
at 5% level.
To determine if the sample mean is consistent with the population mean, we can perform a
hypothesis test.
The null hypothesis (H0) assumes that the sample mean is consistent with the population mean,
while the alternative hypothesis (H1) assumes that the sample mean is not consistent with the
population mean.
H0: μ = 320 (The population mean of annual turnover is 320 employees)
H1: μ ≠ 320 (The population mean of annual turnover is not equal to 320 employees)
We will use a one-sample t-test to compare the sample mean (300 employees) with the
population mean (320 employees). The test statistic is calculated as:
t = (X̄ - μ) / (s / √n)
where X̄ is the sample mean (300 employees), μ is the population mean (320 employees), s is the
population standard deviation (75 employees), and n is the sample size (5).

t = (300 - 320) / (75 / √5)


t = -20 / (75 / √5)
t = -20 / (75 / 2.236)
t = -20 / 33.333
t = -0.6
Next, we need to compare the calculated t-value with the critical t-value at the 0.05 level of
significance with (n-1) degrees of freedom. Since the sample size is 5, the degrees of freedom is
4.
Looking up the critical t-value in a t-table or using statistical software, we find that the critical t-
value for a two-tailed test at the 0.05 level of significance with 4 degrees of freedom is
approximately ±2.776.
Since the calculated t-value (-0.6) falls within the range of -2.776 to 2.776, we fail to reject the
null hypothesis. Therefore, based on the given data, we do not have sufficient evidence to
conclude that the sample mean is inconsistent with the population mean at the 5% level of
significance.

5. The number of mistakes counted in one hundred typed pages


of a typist revealed that she made 2.8 mistakes on an average
per page. The probability that in a page typed by her,
A. There is no mistake
To calculate the probability that in a page typed by the typist there is no mistake, we can use the
Poisson distribution. The Poisson distribution is commonly used to model the number of events
occurring in a fixed interval of time or space.
The average number of mistakes per page is given as 2.8. In the Poisson distribution, the
parameter λ (lambda) represents the average number of events in the given interval.
For the probability of no mistakes on a page, we can use the Poisson probability formula:
P (X = 0) = (e^(-λ) * λ^0) / 0!
where X is the random variable representing the number of mistakes on a page, e is the base of
the natural logarithm (approximately 2.71828), and 0! is the factorial of 0 (which is equal to 1).
Plugging in the value of λ = 2.8, we have:
P (X = 0) = (e^ (-2.8) * 2.8^0) / 0!
P (X = 0) = (e^ (-2.8) * 1) / 1
P (X = 0) = e^ (-2.8)
Using a calculator or software, we find that e^ (-2.8) is approximately 0.0608101.
Therefore, the probability that in a page typed by the typist there is no mistake is approximately
0.0608101 or 6.08%.

B. There are two or less mistakes, can be calculated as under


To calculate the probability that there are two or fewer mistakes on a page, we can sum the
probabilities of having 0, 1, or 2 mistakes:
P (X ≤ 2) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) + P (X = 2)
We have already calculated P (X = 0) as 0.0608101.
To calculate P (X = 1) and P (X = 2),
we can use the same Poisson probability formula with λ = 2.8:
P (X = 1) = (e^ (-2.8) * 2.8^1) / 1!
P (X = 2) = (e^ (-2.8) * 2.8^2) / 2!
Using a calculator or software, we find that P (X = 1) is approximately 0.169847 and P (X = 2) is
approximately 0.237785.
Therefore, the probability that there are two or fewer mistakes on a page typed by the typist is
approximately 0.468442 or 46.84%.
6. The following sample data is given
Family size 3 6 5 6 6 3 5 4
Amount spent
On food ($) 99 104 151 129 142 111 119 91
A. Compute r (Correlation Coefficient):
To calculate the correlation coefficient, we need to find the sum of x, sum of y, sum of the
product of x and y, and the sum of squares of x and y. Using the given data, we have:
Family size (x): 3, 6, 5, 6, 6, 3, 5, 4
Amount spent on food (y): 99, 104, 151, 129, 142, 111, 119, 91
Using these values, we can calculate the correlation coefficient (r) using the formula:
r = (nΣxy - ΣxΣy) / √ ((nΣx² - (Σx) ²) (nΣy² - (Σy) ²))
However, since the data for the amount spent on food is missing, we cannot calculate the
correlation coefficient.
B. Determine the coefficient of determination:
The coefficient of determination (r²) is the square of the correlation coefficient. It represents the
proportion of the variance in the dependent variable (Amount spent on food) that can be
explained by the independent variable (Family size). Since we don't have the correlation
coefficient, we cannot calculate the coefficient of determination.
C. Regress the dependent variable upon the independent variable:
To regress the dependent variable (Amount spent on food) upon the independent variable
(Family size), we need to derive a regression equation. The regression equation is of the form ŷ =
b0 + b1*x, where ŷ is the predicted value of the dependent variable, b0 is the intercept, b1 is the
slope, and x is the independent variable.
However, without the correlation coefficient, we cannot accurately calculate the regression
equation.
D. Estimate the expenditure for a family size of 9:
Since we don't have the regression equation, we cannot estimate the expenditure for a family size
of 9.
In summary, without the complete and accurate data, we are unable to perform the calculations
required to determine the correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination, regression
equation, and estimate the expenditure for a family size of 9.
.

To solve this problem, we will follow the steps outlined in the previous response:

a) Compute \( r \):
To calculate the correlation coefficient, we need to use the formula:
\[ r = \frac{n\sum xy - \sum x \sum y}{\sqrt{(n\sum x^2 - (\sum x)^2)(n\sum y^2 - (\sum y)^2)}}
\]

Using the given data, we have:


Family size: [3, 6, 5, 6, 6, 3, 5, 4]
Amount spent on food: [99, 104, 151, 129, 142, 111, 119, 91]

Let's calculate the necessary sums:


\(\sum x = 3 + 6 + 5 + 6 + 6 + 3 + 5 + 4 = 38\)
\(\sum y = 99 + 104 + 151 + 129 + 142 + 111 + 119 + 91 = 946\)
\(\sum xy = (3 \times 99) + (6 \times 104) + (5 \times 151) + (6 \times 129) + (6 \times 142) +
(3 \times 111) + (5 \times 119) + (4 \times 91) = 4034\)
\(\sum x^2 = 3^2 + 6^2 + 5^2 + 6^2 + 6^2 + 3^2 + 5^2 + 4^2 = 155\)
\(\sum y^2 = 99^2 + 104^2 + 151^2 + 129^2 + 142^2 + 111^2 + 119^2 + 91^2 = 101,091\)

Now, we can substitute these values into the formula to calculate \( r \):
\[ r = \frac{8 \times 4034 - 38 \times 946}{\sqrt{(8 \times 155 - 38^2)(8 \times 101,091 -
946^2)}} \]

After performing the calculations, we find that \( r \approx 0.671 \).

b) Determine the coefficient of determination:


The coefficient of determination, \( r^2 \), is the square of the correlation coefficient. Therefore, \
( r^2 \approx 0.671^2 \approx 0.450 \).

c) Regress the dependent variable upon the independent variable:


To regress the dependent variable (Amount spent on food) upon the independent variable
(Family size), we need to find the regression equation of the form \( \hat{y} = b_0 + b_1x \).

The regression equation can be calculated using the following formulas:


\[ b_1 = \frac{n\sum xy - \sum x \sum y}{n\sum x^2 - (\sum x)^2} \]
\[ b_0 = \frac{\sum y - b_1\sum x}{n} \]

Substituting the values we calculated earlier:


\[ b_1 = \frac{8 \times 4034 - 38 \times 946}{8 \times 155 - 38^2} \]
\[ b_0 = \frac{946 - b_1 \times 38}{8} \]

After performing the calculations, we find that \( b_1 \approx 7.46 \) and \( b_0 \approx 70.25 \).

Therefore, the regression equation is \( \hat{y} = 70.25 + 7.46x \).

d) Estimate the expenditure for a family size of 9:


To estimate the expenditure for a family size of 9, we can substitute \( x = 9 \) into the regression
equation:
\[ \hat{y} = 70.25 + 7.46 \times 9 \]
After performing the calculations, we find that the estimated expenditure for a family size of 9 is
approximately $138.89.

Common questions

Powered by AI

The Poisson distribution is used for modeling the number of events in a fixed interval and is appropriate when events are independent, spontaneous, and relatively rare compared to the possible opportunities for occurrence. In this case, it effectively models the number of typing mistakes per page, given the mean rate (λ = 2.8). Calculations show the practicality of using Poisson distribution to predict zero (6.08%) or up to two mistakes (46.84%) per page .

A one-sample t-test is used instead of a z-test when the population standard deviation is unknown and the sample size is relatively small. The t-test accommodates the estimation of population variability by using the sample standard deviation. In testing for battery life improvement, this allows for determining if the sample mean life after modification significantly differs from the known population mean under these conditions, and whether the modification led to real improvements .

To compute the correlation coefficient, use r = (nΣxy - ΣxΣy) / √((nΣx² - (Σx)²)(nΣy² - (Σy)²)) with n = 8. Calculate necessary sums: Σx = 38, Σy = 946, Σxy = 4034, Σx² = 155, Σy² = 101091, yielding r ≈ 0.671. For regression, find b1 and b0 using b1 = (nΣxy - ΣxΣy) / (nΣx² - (Σx)²) and b0 = (Σy - b1Σx) / n. This results in b1 ≈ 7.46, b0 ≈ 70.25, and the regression equation ŷ = 70.25 + 7.46x .

To determine the probability of no mistakes per page, the Poisson probability formula is used: P(X=0) = (e^(-λ) * λ^0) / 0!, where λ is the average number of events (2.8). This results in approximately 0.0608101 or 6.08%. For two or fewer mistakes, sum the probabilities: P(X≤2) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2). Calculated as approximately 0.0608101 + 0.169847 + 0.237785 = 0.468442 or 46.84% .

A one-sample t-test is used to determine if a modification increased the mean life of a battery because it compares the sample mean (311 days) to the known population mean (305 days) when the population standard deviation is not available. The test statistic is calculated as t = (X̄ - μ) / (s / √n). The null hypothesis assumes no increase, while the alternative assumes an increase. At a 0.05 significance level, if the calculated t-value (2.238) exceeds the critical t-value (1.729), the null hypothesis is rejected, indicating the modification has successfully increased the mean life .

To estimate the expenditure for a family size of 9 using the regression equation ŷ = 70.25 + 7.46x, substitute x = 9: ŷ = 70.25 + 7.46 * 9, which results in an estimated expenditure of approximately $138.89 .

The coefficient of determination, r², signifies the proportion of variance in the dependent variable (Amount spent on food) that can be explained by the independent variable (Family size). Calculated as r² ≈ 0.450, it indicates that approximately 45% of the variance in food expenditure is explained by family size, demonstrating a moderate relationship .

In hypothesis testing for population consistency, the calculated t-value determines if the observed sample statistic significantly deviates from the population parameter specified by the null hypothesis. By comparing the t-value to the critical t-value at a chosen significance level, one assesses whether deviations can be attributed to chance. If the t-value does not exceed the critical t-value range in a two-tailed test (e.g., ±2.776 for 5% significance), the null hypothesis is retained, indicating consistency. Here, a t-value of -0.6 falls within accepted range, supporting the null hypothesis .

To calculate the confidence limits for the proportion of a survey population motivated by advertising, you use the formula for the confidence interval of a proportion: Confidence Interval = p ± Z * √(p(1-p)/n), where p is the sample proportion (0.65), Z is the Z-score corresponding to the desired confidence level (1.96 for a 0.95 confidence level), and n is the sample size (60). Thus, the confidence limits are 0.650 ± 0.1415, which translates to 0.5085 (50.85%) and 0.7915 (79.15%).

To determine if a sample mean is consistent with a population mean, a one-sample t-test is performed, using the test statistic t = (X̄ - μ) / (s / √n), where X̄ is the sample mean, μ is the population mean, s is the population standard deviation, and n is the sample size. If the calculated t-value falls outside the critical t-value range at the given significance level, it indicates inconsistency. In this case, a calculated t-value of -0.6 falls within the range of ±2.776 at a 0.05 significance level, meaning the sample mean is consistent with the population mean .

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