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Econometrics Problem Set on Earnings Analysis

This document provides a multiple linear regression analysis of factors affecting average hourly earnings using data from the 1998 Current Population Survey. It reports regression results with different combinations of independent variables and asks the reader to interpret the results, perform statistical tests of hypotheses, and construct confidence intervals. It also asks the reader to compare the results to a replication of the analysis using 1992 data and apply the regression approach to additional data sets analyzing college course evaluations and the effect of distance to college on educational attainment.

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Luca Vanz
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
34 views3 pages

Econometrics Problem Set on Earnings Analysis

This document provides a multiple linear regression analysis of factors affecting average hourly earnings using data from the 1998 Current Population Survey. It reports regression results with different combinations of independent variables and asks the reader to interpret the results, perform statistical tests of hypotheses, and construct confidence intervals. It also asks the reader to compare the results to a replication of the analysis using 1992 data and apply the regression approach to additional data sets analyzing college course evaluations and the effect of distance to college on educational attainment.

Uploaded by

Luca Vanz
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

ME-MIEM
Econometrics I
Multiple Linear Regression II: Inference I
Problem Set 4

1. Explain how you would test the null hypothesis that 1 = 0 in the multiple regression model Yi = 0 + 1 X1i +
2 X2i + Ui : Explain how you would test the joint hypothesis that 1 = 0 and 2 = 0: Why isn’t the result of
the joint test implied by the results of the …rst two tests?

The following results were obtained using data from the 1998 Current Population Survey (CPS). The data
set consists of information on 4000 full-time full-year workers. The highest educational achievement for each
worker was either a high school diploma or a bachelor’s degree. The worker’s ages ranged from 25 to 34 years.
The data set also contained information on the region of the country where the person lived, marital status
and number of children:
AHE = average hourly earnings (in 1998 dollars)
College = binary variable (1 if college, 0 if high school)
Female = binary variable (1 if female. 0 if male)
Age = age (in years)
Ntheast= binary variable (1 if Region = Northeast. 0 otherwise)
Midwest = binary variable (1 if Region = Midwest, 0 otherwise)
South = binary variable (1 if Region = South, 0 otherwise)
West= binary variable (1 if Region = West, 0 otherwise)

Dependent Variable: Average Hourly Earnings (AHE)


Regressor (1) (2) (3)
College (X1 ) 5:46 5:48 5:44
(0:21) (0:21) (0:21)
Female (X2 ) 2:64 2:62 2:62
(0:20) (0:20) (0:20)
Age (X3 ) 0:29 0:29
(0:04) (0:04)
Northeast (X4 ) 0:69
(0:30)
Midwest (X5 ) 0:60
(0:28)
South (X6 ) 0:27
(0:26)
Intercept 12:69 4:40 3:75
(0:14) (1:05) (1:06)
Summary Statistics
SER 6.27 6.22 6.21
R2 0.176 0.190 0.194
n 4,000 4,000 4,000
F Statistic for regional e¤ects = 0 6.10

2. Add " " (5%) and "**" (1%) to the table to indicate the statistical signi…cance of the coe¢ cients.
3. Using the regression results in column (1):

(a) Is the college-high school earnings di¤erence estimated from this regression statistically signi…cant at the
5% level? Construct a 95% con…dence interval of the di¤erence.
(b) Is the male-female earnings di¤erence estimated from this regression statistically signi…cant at the 5%
level? Construct a 95% con…dence interval for the di¤erence.

4. Using the regression results in column (2):

1
(a) Is age an important determinant of earnings? Use an appropriate statistical test and/or a con…dence
interval to explain your answer.
(b) Sally is a 29-year-old female college graduate. Betsy is a [Link]-old female college graduate. Construct
a 95% con…dence interval for the expected di¤erence between their earnings.

5. Using the regression results in column (3):

(a) Do there appear to be important regional di¤erences? Use an appropriate hypothesis test to explain your
answer.
(b) Juanita is a 28-year-old female college graduate from the South. Molly is a 28-year-old female college
graduate from the West. Jennifer is a 28-year-old female college graduate from the Midwest.
(i) Construct a 95% con…dence interval for the di¤erence in expected earnings between Juanita and Molly.
(ii) Explain how you would construct a 95% con…dence interval for the di¤erence in expected earnings
between Juanita and Jennifer (Hint: What would happen if you included W est and excluded M idwest
variable from the regression?)

6. The regression shown in column (2) was estimated again, this time using data from 1992 (4000 observations
selected at random from the March 1993 CPS, converted into 1998 dollars using the consumer price index).
The results are
d
AHE = 0:77 + 5:29 College 2:59 F emale + 0:40 Age;
(0:98) (0:20) (0:18) (0:03)
2
SER = 5:85; R = 0:21:

Comparing this regression to the regression for 1998 shown in column (2), is there a statistically signi…cant
change in the coe¢ cient of College?
7. Evaluate the following statement: "In all of the regressions, the coe¢ cient on Female is negative, large, and
statistically signi…cant. This provides strong statistical evidence of gender discrimination in the U.S. labor
market."
8. Consider the regression model Yi = 0 + 1 X1i + 2 X2i + Ui : Transform the regression so that you can use a t
-statistic to test:

(a) 1 = 2:
(b) 1 +a 2 = 0, where a is a constant.
(c) 1 + 2 = 1: (Hint: You must rede…ne the dependent variable in the regression.)

9. Using the data set TeachingRatings, carry out the following exercises:

(a) Run a regression of Course_Eval on the variable that measures the professor’s Beauty (Beauty): Con-
struct a 95% con…dence interval for the e¤ect of Beauty on Course_Eval:
(b) Consider the di¤erent control variables in the data set. Which do you think should be included in the
regression? Using a table examine the robustness of the con…dence interval that you constructed in (a):
What is a reasonable con…dence interval for the e¤ect of Beauty on Course_Eval?

10. Using the data set CollegeDistance, answer to the following questions:

(a) An education advocacy group argues that on average, a person’s educational attainment would increase
by approximately 0.15 year if distance to the nearest college is decreased by 20 miles. Run a regression
of years of completed education (ED) on distance to the nearest college (Dist). Is the advocacy groups’
claim consistent with the estimated regression? Explain.
(b) Other factors also a¤ect how much college a person completes. Does controlling for these other factors
change the estimated e¤ect of distance on college years completed? To answer this question, construct
a table, including a simple speci…cation (as the one in (a)); a base speci…cation (that includes a set of
important control variables), and several modi…cations of the base speci…cation. Discuss how the estimated
e¤ect of Dist on ED changes across the speci…cations.

2
(c) It has been argued that, controlling for other factors, blacks and hispanics complete more college than
whites. Is this result consistent with the regressions that you constructed in part (b)?

SOLUTIONS:

3. a) 5:46 1:96 0:21; b) Yes, 2:64 1:96 0:20:


4. a) Yes, 0:29 1:96 0:04; b) ($1:06; $1:84) :
5. a) Yes, the regional e¤ects are signi…cant at 1%.
b) i) 0:27 1:96 0:26.
ii) The expected di¤erence between Juanita and Jennifer is (X5;Juanita X5;Jennifer ) 5 +(X6;Juanita X6;Jennifer )
6 = 5 + 6 : A 95% con…dence interval could be easily built omitting M idwest from the regression and
replacing with X5 = W est: In this new regression the coe¢ cient of South measures South-Midwest earnings
di¤erence and the 95% con…dence interval is computed directly.
6. t = 0:6552:

9. (a) 0:13 0:03 1:96 or 0.07 to 0.20


(b) Intro is not signi…cant, but the other variables are signi…cant.
A reasonable 95% con…dence interval is 0:17 1:96 0:03 or 0.11 to 0.23.
10. (a) Yes: The group’s claim is that the coe¢ cient on Dist is 0:075 and the 95% con…dence for Dist in a simple
regression model is 0:073 1:96 0:013 or 0:100 to 0:047.
(b) Yes: use a base speci…cation controlling for other important factors (bytest; f emale; black; hispanic;
incomehi; ownhome, dadcoll; M omcoll; 4cue80; stwmf g80) to obtain the 95% con…dence interval for Dist :
0:031 1:96 0:012 or 0:055 to 0:008. Use also additional variables (U rban; T uition).
(c) Yes.

Common questions

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To determine if the effect of beauty on teaching evaluations is robust, conduct a series of regressions where different sets of control variables are included. Compare the size and statistical significance of the beauty coefficient across these models. If the beauty effect remains consistent, robust, and statistically significant, it suggests that the effect is not due to omitted variable bias. The confidence intervals from each specification should also be compared to assess robustness .

To test whether β1 = β2, re-specify the model as Yi = β0 + β3(X1i - X2i) + β2X2i + Ui, where β3 = β1 - β2. A t-test on β3 can then be used to test the hypothesis that β3 = 0, which is equivalent to testing β1 = β2 .

To test the null hypothesis that β1 = 0, you would perform a t-test. The t-statistic is calculated as the estimated coefficient divided by its standard error: t = (b1 - 0) / SE(b1), where b1 is the estimated coefficient for X1. If the absolute value of the t-statistic is greater than the critical value from the t-distribution with n-k degrees of freedom (where n is the sample size and k is the number of predictors), the null hypothesis is rejected at the chosen significance level .

The negative and statistically significant coefficient on the Female binary variable implies that, all else being equal, females earn less than their male counterparts. This coefficient may be interpreted as evidence supporting gender discrimination in the labor market; however, it does not control for unobserved factors that might influence earnings differences, so it cannot conclusively prove discrimination without further analysis and controls for potential confounders .

To construct a 95% confidence interval for the difference in expected earnings between an individual from the South and one from the West, use the estimated coefficients for the regional binary variables (e.g., βSouth and βWest). The difference in coefficients gives the point estimate for the differential. The standard error of the difference is derived from the sum of the variances of the individual coefficients and twice the covariance (assuming independence, this reduces to the sum of the variances). The 95% confidence interval is then calculated as the point estimate ± 1.96 * standard error of the difference .

The result of individual tests is not implied by the joint test because the joint hypothesis test considers the covariance between the estimators of β1 and β2. It assesses the combined effect of both variables simultaneously, rather than independently, and could potentially reveal effects that do not appear significant when considering each predictor separately .

The significance of regional effects in determining earnings is confirmed by the F-statistic for regional effects being statistically significant at the 1% level. This suggests that living in different regions is associated with significant differences in average hourly earnings, even after controlling for other factors such as education, gender, and age .

Including additional control variables in the regression model for estimating the effect of distance to college on educational attainment generally serves to isolate the partial effect of distance by accounting for other potential influences on education. This often results in a more precise estimate of the distance effect, as shown by narrower confidence intervals and potentially different coefficient estimates. The changes in the effect size of distance when controls are added or removed provide insights into the robustness of the initial findings and the presence of omitted variable bias .

A 95% confidence interval for the effect of college education on earnings is calculated from the estimated coefficient of the College variable and its standard error: 5.48 ± (1.96 * 0.21), resulting in (5.07, 5.89). This interval suggests that a college education is associated, on average, with an increase in hourly earnings by between $5.07 and $5.89 compared to having only a high school education. It statistically confirms that college education significantly increases earnings .

To evaluate the statistical evidence for disparities in educational attainment across racial groups, examine the significance of race-related coefficients in the regression models. Check whether these coefficients are statistically significant at common levels (5% or 1%), and review their stability across different model specifications that control for confounding variables. Significant and consistently strong race coefficients in multiple robust models would provide compelling evidence of disparities .

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