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Normal Distribution in Pregnancy Analysis

This document discusses using the normal distribution to solve problems related to the length of human pregnancies. It provides examples of calculating probabilities for different proportions of pregnancies based on their length. Specifically, it calculates: 1) The probability that a pregnancy lasts longer than 295 days (3.5%). 2) The probability that a pregnancy lasts between 222 and 258 days (30.55%). 3) The probability that a pregnancy lasts less than 222 days or more than 258 days (69.45%). 4) The proportion of pregnancies shorter than 282 days (84.13%). 5) The values that enclose the middle 95% of gestation periods (between 234 and 298 days).

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5 views2 pages

Normal Distribution in Pregnancy Analysis

This document discusses using the normal distribution to solve problems related to the length of human pregnancies. It provides examples of calculating probabilities for different proportions of pregnancies based on their length. Specifically, it calculates: 1) The probability that a pregnancy lasts longer than 295 days (3.5%). 2) The probability that a pregnancy lasts between 222 and 258 days (30.55%). 3) The probability that a pregnancy lasts less than 222 days or more than 258 days (69.45%). 4) The proportion of pregnancies shorter than 282 days (84.13%). 5) The values that enclose the middle 95% of gestation periods (between 234 and 298 days).

Uploaded by

pachaurivikram
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Applications of the Normal Distribution Solutions

Use the information in the following setting to answer questions 1 through 4:

The length of human pregnancies from conception to birth is, on average, 266
days with a standard deviation of 16 days. Enough medical study has been done
on this variable that we know it follows an approximate normal distribution.
1) What proportion of human pregnancies
Figure 1: Accompanies problem 1
is longer than 295 days?

A) Compute z
295 − 266
z= = 1.81
16

B) Look up in table A
Pr{z < 1.81} = 0.9649

C) Now subtract from 1 because this is a type II problem


Pr{x > 295} = Pr{z > 1.81} = 1 - 0.9649 = 0.0351

2) What is the probability that a woman’s


pregnancy will last between 222 and Figure 2: Accompanies problem 2
258 days?
A) Compute z-scores for each value of x
222 − 266
z= = −2.75
16

258 − 266
z= = −0.50
16

B) Look up probabilities in Table A

Pr{z < -2.75} = 0.0030


Pr{z < -0.50} = 0.3085

C) Subtract to get the type III “central” probability


Pr{222 < x < 258} = Pr{-2.75 < z < -0.50} = 0.3085-0.0030 = 0.3055

Rick Gumina STCC201 NormalDist1_sol.doc


[Link]
Applications of the Normal Distribution Solutions

3) What is the probability that a woman’s Figure 3: Accompanies problem 3


pregnancy will last more than 258 or
less than 222 days?

Here we can use the fact that the total


area under the normal “density” is 1.
We’ve already computed the area
(probability) for pregnancies between
222 and 258 days in problem 2. To
get the corresponding probability that
a pregnancy will last less than 222 days or more than 258 days we can,
simply subtract from 1. Hence,

Pr{x < 222 or x > 258} = 1 – 0.3055 = 0.6945

4) What proportion of human pregnancies


is shorter than 282 days? Figure 4: Accompanies problem 4

This is a type I problem!


A) Convert to z

282 − 266
z= = 1.00
16

B) Look up probability in Table A

Pr{x < 282} = Pr{z<1.00} = 0.8413

5) What two values enclose the middle 95% of human gestation periods? (Hint:
for a “close enough” answer use the empirical rule)

According to the empirical rule, 95% of the data in a BSD will lie between ± 2
σ of the mean. Since gestation length is normally distributed (bell shaped)
with a mean of 266 and a standard deviation of 16, we would expect 95% of
the data to lie between 266 ± 2(16) days. So, 95% of all pregnancies will last
between 234 and 298 days.

Rick Gumina STCC201 NormalDist1_sol.doc


[Link]

Common questions

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To calculate the probability of a pregnancy duration falling within a specific range, compute the z-scores for both endpoints of the range using the formula (x - μ) / σ, where x is each endpoint, μ is the mean (266 days), and σ is the standard deviation (16 days). Look up each corresponding z-score in a standard normal distribution table to get the cumulative probabilities. Finally, subtract the smaller cumulative probability from the larger one. For example, the z-scores for 222 and 258 days are -2.75 and -0.50, respectively. The corresponding probabilities are 0.0030 and 0.3085. Thus, Pr{222 < x < 258} = 0.3085 - 0.0030 = 0.3055, indicating that approximately 30.55% of pregnancies last between 222 and 258 days .

The empirical rule, also known as the 68-95-99.7 rule, helps estimate the distribution of data in a bell-shaped curve where approximately 68% of data falls within one standard deviation of the mean, 95% within two, and 99.7% within three. For human gestation periods, which are normally distributed with a mean of 266 days and a standard deviation of 16 days, the empirical rule allows us to estimate that about 95% of pregnancies fall within two standard deviations from the mean. Therefore, the range is 266 ± 2(16), resulting in an interval from 234 to 298 days. This method provides a quick approximation of the middle 95% of gestation lengths .

To determine the proportion of human pregnancies lasting longer than a specified number of days, you can use the normal distribution model. First, convert the number of days into a z-score using the formula (x - μ) / σ, where x is the number of days, μ is the mean (266 days), and σ is the standard deviation (16 days). Then, refer to a standard normal distribution table to find the probability corresponding to the calculated z-score, and subtract it from 1. For instance, for pregnancies longer than 295 days, compute the z-score as (295 - 266) / 16 = 1.81. Look up the probability of z < 1.81, which is 0.9649, then calculate 1 - 0.9649 to get 0.0351, implying that 3.51% of pregnancies exceed 295 days .

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