Introduction to Operations Research
Introduction to Operations Research
INTRODUCTION
The subject OPERATIONS RESEARCH is a branch of mathematics - specially applied
mathematics, used to provide a scientific base for management to take timely and effective
decisions to their problems. It tries to avoid the dangers from taking decisions merely by
guessing or by using thumb rules. Management is the multidimensional and dynamic
concept. It is multidimensional, because management problems and their solutions have
consequences in several dimensions, such as human, economic social and political fields. As
the manager operates his system in an environment, which will never remain static, hence
is dynamic in nature. Hence any manager, while making decisions, considers all aspects in
addition to economic aspect, so that his solution should be useful in all aspects.
a. Classification by Structure
i. Iconic Models: These models are scaled version of the actual object. For
example a toy of a car is an iconic model of a real car. In fact it is a descriptive
model giving the description of various aspects of real object. As far as
operations research is concerned, is of less use.
ii. Analogue Model: In this model one set of properties are used to represent
another set of properties. Say for example, blue color generally represents
water. Many a time we represent various aspects on graph by different colors
or different lines all these are analog models. These are also not much used in
operations research.
iii. Symbolic Models or Mathematical Models: In these models the variables of a
problem is represented by mathematical symbols, letters etc. To show the
relationships between variables and constraints we use mathematical
symbols. Hence these are known as symbolic models or mathematical models.
These models are used very much in operations research.
b. Classification by utility
Depending on the use of the model or purpose of the model, the models are classified as
descriptive, predictive and prescriptive models.
The linear programming technique can be said to have a linear objective function that is to
be optimized either maximized or minimized, subject to linear equality or inequality
constraints and sign restrictions on the variables. The term linear describes the
proportionate relationship of two or more variables. Thus, a given change in one variable
will always cause a resulting proportional change in another variable.
L.P is solved in a step – by – step manner called iterations. Each step of the procedure is an
attempt to improve on the solution until the "best answer" is obtained or until it is shown
that no feasible answer exists.
Formulation of LP problem
The effective use of LP in real life problems requires proper and accurate formulation of
model, which has objective function along with constraints. The steps for formulating the
L.P are:
1. Identify the unknown decision variables to be determined and assign symbols to them.
2. Identify all the restrictions or constraints in the problem and express them as linear
equations or inequalities of decision variables.
3. Identify the objective or aim and represent it also as a linear function of decision
variables.
The same linear programming problem can be expressed in a more condensed form using
summation notation or matrix equation.
Maximize Z =
Where C is a row vector and X and B are column vectors. A is a co-efficient matrix of the
order m x n.
Example1. A firm manufactures two products A & B on which the profits earned per unit
are Birr 3 & 4 respectively. Each product is processed on two machines M1 & M2. Product A
requires one minute of processing time on M1 and two minute on M2, while product B
requires one minute in M1 and one minute on M2. Machine M1 is available for not more
than 7:30 hours and M2 is available for 10 hours, during any working day. Formulate the
mathematical LP model.
Solution
Maximize Z = 3x1 + 4x2 Objective Function
Subject to x1 + x2 450
2x1 + x2 600 Linear Structural Constraints
Where x1, x2 0 Non - Negativity Constraint
Example2.
The profit per unit for product 1, 2 & 3 is Birr 4, 3 & 6 respectively. Formulate the
mathematical LP model that will maximize daily profit.
Solution
Max Z = 4x1 + 3x2 + 6x3
Subject to 2x1 + 3x2 + 2x3 440
4x1 + 0x2 + 3x3 470
2x1 + 5x2 + 0x3 430
Where x1, x2 & x3 0
Example3.
A person wants to decide the constituents of a diet which will fulfill his daily requirement
of proteins, fats & carbohydrates at a minimum cost. The choice is to make from different
types of foods. The yields per unit of this food are given below. Formulate LP model for the
problem.
Solution
Minimize Z = 45x1 + 40x2 + 85x3 + 65x4
Subject to 3x1 + 4x2 + 8x3 + 6x4 800
Graphical Method
In graphical method, the inequalities (structural constraints) are considered to be
equations. This is because; one cannot draw a graph for inequality. Only two variable
problems are considered, because we can draw straight lines in two-dimensional plane (X-
1 axis and X-2 axis). More over as we have non negativity constraint in the problem that is
all the decision variables must have positive values always the solution to the problem lies
in first quadrant of the graph. This method consists of the following steps: -
1. Formulate the mathematical model for the given problem.
2. Convert the constraints given in the form inequality to that of equality.
3. Draw the x and y axes.
4. Plot each of the constraints on the graph.
5. Identify the feasible (solution) region.
Solution
Step1. Given problem is already in mathematical form.
Step2. Convert the constraints given in the form inequality to that of equality.
Step3. Draw the X and Y axes.
Step4. Plot each of the constraints on the graph.
Step5. Consider the 1st constraint 3x1 + 5x2 15, which will be graphed as 3x1 + 5x2 = 15. To
plot the line, find any two points that satisfy the equation, and then draw a straight line
through them.
The area bounded by all these constraints called feasible region, is shown in the figure by
shaded area OABC.
Compute objective function value at each corner point of the feasible region.
Corner point coordinates(x1, x2) Z= 5x1 + 3x2
O (0, 0) (5 x 0) + (3 x 0) = 0
A (2, 0) (5 x 2) + (3 x 0) = 10
B (1, 2.5) (1 x 5) + (3 x 2.5) = 12.5
C (0, 3) (5 x 0) + (3x 3) = 9
x2
(0, 5) 5
4
5x1 + 2x2 = 10
(0, 3) 3C
B (1, 2.5)
2
1 3x1 + 5x2 = 15
A x1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
(2, 0) (5, 0)
Minimization Case
Example 2: Minimize the following graphical problem.
Solution plot each constraint on graph in the same way as explained earlier. The feasible
region is shown in the figure by the shaded area OABCDE.
x2
900
800
(0, 750)
700 3x1 + 2x2 1500
600
Solution: Draw the graph and find the extreme points of feasible region. The feasible region
is shown in the figure by shaded area ABCD.
x2
5 x1 1.5
(0, 4) 4
3 B (1.5, 2.5)
(0, 2.5) C x2 2.5
2 Area x1+x2 4
(0, 1.5) D
1 (1.5, .8) A x1+2x2 3
x1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
(1.5, 0) (3, 0) (4, 0)
The coordinates of extreme point of region ABCD and objective function at each extreme
point are as follows:
Example 4
Maximize Z = 6x1 + x2
Subject to 2x1 + x2 3
x2 – x1 0
Where x1, x2 0
Solution x2
5
4
x2 – x1 0
(0, 3) 3 B
2x1+x2 0
2
A (1, 1)
1
(0, 0) 0 1 2 3 4 5 x1
(1.5, 0)
Here, the feasible region is unbounded, as the values of the objective function at each
extreme points A (1, 1) and B (0, 3) are 7 and 3. There exist a number of points in feasible
region for which the value of objective function more the 7.
Alternative solution
It is also known as multiple optimal solution case. It is a solution where the linear
programming problem has more than on optimal solution.
Example 5
Maximize Z = 4x1 + 4x2
Subject to x1 + 2x2 10
6x1 + 6x2 36
Where x1, x2 0
Solution
X2
(0, 6) 6
6x1 + 6x2 = 36
(0, 5) 5 C
4 B (2, 4)
1 x1 + x2 = 10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 X1
(0, 0) (6, 0) (10, 0)
The coordination of extreme points of feasible region OABC is:
O = (0, 0), A = (6, 0), B = (2, 4), C = (0, 5)
Corner point coordinates(x1, x2) Z= 4x1 + 4x2
O (0, 0) (4 x 0) + (4 x 0) = 0
A (6, 0) (4 x 6) + (4 x 0) = 24
B (2, 4) (4 x 2) + (4 x 4) = 24
C (0, 5) (4 x 0) + (4x 5) = 20
Here, we have more than one optimal solution, hence it is alternative solution.
Max Z = 24
Infeasible solution
It involves the problem where no variables satisfy all the constraints. In this type of
problems, no unique feasible solution should be achieved.
Example 6
Maximize Z = 5x1 + 3x2
Subject to 4x1 + 2x2 8
x1 3
x2 7
Where x1, x2 0
X2
10
7 x2 = 7
2 x1 = 3
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 X1
Here, there is no common area; hence it is having infeasible solution.
Important terms
Solutions values of decisions variable of linear programming model are called
solutions.
Basic solutions the variables which have zero values are non basic variables and the
remaining variables which contained non-zero variables are called basic variables.
For the set of simultaneous equations in Q known (P > Q), a solution obtained by
setting (p - Q) of variables equal to zero and solving the remaining P equations in P
unknown is as basic solution.
Feasible solution the solution which satisfies all the constraints of linear
programming problems is called a feasible solution.
Basic feasible solution a feasible solution which is also a basic solution is known as
a basic feasible solution.
Optimal feasible solution a basic feasible solution which optimizes the objective
function is called n optimal feasible solution.
Degenerate solution a basic solution is said to be degenerate if one or more basic
variables become zero.
Infeasible solution the solution which does not satisfy all the constraints of linear
programming problem is called infeasible solution.
SIMPLEX METHOD
This method was developed by G.B. Dantzing in 1947. Simplex method is the steps of
algorithm until an optimal solution is reached. It is also known as iterative method. The
various steps involved in a simplex method are as follows.
Step3. Find initial basic feasible solution and express it into matrix (table) form.
Step4. Calculate all C-Z, and if all the values are found negative or zero, it is considered to
be an optimal solution, hence stop. Else follow the next steps. Z row coefficients under any
column are obtained by adding the products of elements under that column with the
corresponding values i.e. Z= , where aij are the matrix element in the ith row
jth column.
Step5. Select the greatest positive C-Z, the corresponding column of this value is called
Pivot column. The variable is called incoming or entering variable.
Step6. To determine the leaving variable, elements under solution values (b) divided by
the corresponding elements of pivot column and the row containing the minimum non-
negative ratio is marked. This ratio is called minimum ratio. The row so marked is called
pivot row. The variable is called leaving or outgoing variable. The intersection between
pivot column and row is known as pivot element.
Step7. The corresponding variable of pivot element enters the basis, while the slack
variables will leave the basis.
Step8. Generate new solution by the following steps given below.
For pivot row, divide all elements of the row by pivot element.
For remaining rows, use the following formula:
New value = old value – (F.R X corresponding element of pivot row).
Here F.R means Fixed Ratio
F.R = pivot column elements / pivot element
Step9. Repeat the steps until the optimal solution is found.
Example 1 Solve the following linear programming problems using simplex method.
Maximize
Subject to –x1 + x2 0
-x + 2x3 0
X1 + x2 + x3 100
Where x1, x2, x3 0
Solution
Step1. Since the problem is given in mathematical form we will introduce slack variables to
convert inequality constraints to equality. Now the LP problem becomes.
Maximize Z= 12x1 + 15x2 + 14x3 + 0S1 + 0S2 + 0S3
Subject to -x1 + x2+ S1 = 0
-x1 + 2x3 + S2 = 0
X1 + x2 + x3 + S3 = 100
The above information can be expressed in the form of a simple matrix as shown below:
C (contribution/ unit) 12 15 14 0 0 0
Fixed Profit Variables Solution X1 X2 X3 S1 S2 S3 Minimum
Ratio per In values(b) ratio
(F.R) unit(CB) basic(B)
- 0 S1 0 -1 (1) 0 1 0 0 0
0 0 S2 0 -1 0 2 0 1 0
1 0 S3 100 1 1 1 0 0 1 100/1
Z 0 0 0 0 0 0
C-Z 12 15 14 0 0 0
Step3. Since all C-Z 0 or positive, the current solution is not optimal. It could be improved.
Step4. Variable x2 is chosen to enter into the basis C-Z=15, which is the largest positive
number in column 2. This column is pivot column.
Step5. S3 is the outgoing variable since it is in pivot row.
Step6.
For pivot row, divide all elements of the row by pivot element.
For remaining rows, use the following formula:
For row 2
0-(0X0) =0, -1-(0X1) = -1, 0-(0X1) =0, 2-(0X0) =2, 0-(0X1) =0, 1-(0X0) =1 & 0-(0x0) = 0
For row 3
100-(1X0) =100, 1-(1X-1) =2, 1-(1X1) =0, 1-(1X0) =1, 0-(1X1) =-1, 0-(1X0) =0 & 1-(1-0) =1
Improved solution 1
C 12 15 14 0 0 0 Minimum
Fixed Profit Variables Solution X1 X2 X3 S1 S2 S3 ratio
Ratio(F.R) per In values(b)
unit(CB) basic(B)
-1/2 15 X2 0 -1 1 0 1 0 0 -
-1/2 0 S2 0 -1 0 2 0 1 0 -
- 0 S3 100 (2) 0 1 -1 0 1 100/2=50
Z -15 15 0 15 0 0
C-Z 27 0 14 - 0 0
15
Here all elements are not negative or zero, so it is not an optimal solution. Hence we
will repeat the same procedure. X3 will replace s2.
For row 1
50-(1/5X50) =40, 0-(1/5X0) =0, 1-(1/5X0) =1, ½-(1/5X5/2) =0, ½(1/5X-1/2) =-2/5,
0-(1/5X1) =1/5, & ½(1/5X1/2) =2/5
For row 3
50-(1/5X50) =40, 1-(1/5X0) =0, 0-(1/5X0) = 0, ½(1/5X5/2) =0, -½(1/5X-1/2) =-2/5,
0(1/5X1) =-1/5 & ½-(1/5X1/2) =2/5
Improved solution 3
C 12 15 14 0 0 0
Fixed Profit Variables Solution X1 X2 X3 S1 S2 S3 Minimum
Ratio per In values(b) ratio
(F.R) unit(CB) basic(B)
15 X2 40 0 1 0 2/5 -1/5 2/5
14 X3 20 0 0 1 -1/5 2/5 1/5
12 X1 40 1 0 0 -2/5 -1/5 2/5
Z 12 15 14 7/5 1/5 68/5
All the C-Z 0, so the optimal solution from the above solution is:
X1= 40, x2= 40 x3= 20
Max Z= 12 x 40 + 15 x 40 + 14 x 20 = 1360
Example 2
Max Z = 2x1 + 5x2
Subject to x1 + 4x2 24
3x1+ x2 21
X1 + x2 9
Where x1, x2 0
Solution
Step1. Introduce slack variables s1, s2 & s3 the problem can be expressed in the following
standard form.
Step2. We shall start with a basic solution which we shall get by assuming that the profit
earned is zero. Setting x1=0 & x2=0 the constraints yield the following initial basic feasible
solution & will express it into matrix form.
S1 = 24, S2 = 21, & S3 = 9 and Z = 0
C 2 5 0 0 0
Fixed Profit Variables Solution X1 X2 S1 S2 S3 Minimum
Ratio per In values(b) ratio
(F.R) unit(CB) basic(B)
- 0 S1 24 1 (4) 1 0 0 24/4=6
¼ 0 S2 21 3 1 0 1 0 21/1 = 21
¼ 0 S3 9 1 1 0 0 1 9/1 = 9
Z 0 0 0 0 0
C-Z 2 5 0 0 0
C 2 5 0 0 0
Fixed Profit Variables Solution X1 X2 S1 S2 S3 Minimum ratio
Ratio per In values(b)
(F.R) unit(CB) basic(B)
1/3 5 X2 6 ¼ 1 ¼ 0 0 6/1/4=24
11/3 0 S2 15 11/4 0 - 1 0 15/11/4=60/11
1/4
0 S3 3 (¾) 0 - 0 1 3/3/4=4
1/4
Z 5/4 5 5/4 0 0
C-Z 3/4 0 - 0 0
5/4
Since C-Z 0 the solution is not an optimal solution and can be improved. Here ¾ is the
pivot element and s3 is the outgoing variable and x1 is the incoming variable.
C 2 5 0 0 0
Fixed Profit Variables Solution X1 X2 S1 S2 S3 Minimum
Ratio per In values(b) ratio
(F.R) unit(CB) basic(B)
5 X2 5 0 1 1/3 0 -1/3
0 S2 4 0 0 2/31 -
11/3
2 X1 4 1 0 -1/3 0 4/3
Z 2 5 1 0 1
C-Z 0 0 -1 0 -1
Since all the values are negative or zero, third feasible solution is an optimal solution.
X1=4, X2=5 & X3=0
Max Z = 2X4 + 5X5 + 4X0 = 33
I. Big – M Method
The steps of big M methods are as follows:
Add slack and artificial variables to standard form per the need of LP problem.
Assign +M for Minimization ( ) & –M Maximization ( ).
Calculate C – Z of the last row.
If calculated values (C – Z) are 0, the solution is optimal.
Select pivot/key column with the most negative C – Z value.
Follow the further steps of simplex method.
Remarks
Slack variables are added to (the left hand sides) the constraints of ( ) type and
subtracted from the constraints of ( ) type.
Artificial variables are added to the constraints of ( ) and (=) type. Equality (=)
constraints do not require slack variables.
Artificial Variables once driven out can never re-enter.
Example1.
Minimize Z = 12x1 + 20x2
Subject to 6x1 + 8x2 100
7x1 + 12x2 120
Where x1, x2 0
Solution
Step1. Express the problem in standard form.
Maximize Z = 12x1 + 20x2 + 0s1 + 0s2 + MA1 + MA2
Subject to 6x1 + 8x2 – S1 + A1 = 100
7x1 + 12x2 – S2+ A2 = 120
Where x1, x2, s1, s2, A1, A2 0
The problem has six variables and two constraints four of the variables have to be
zero to get initial basic feasible solution to the artificial system.
Setting: - x1, x2, s1, s2 = 0
We get A1= 100, A2= 120 & Z= 220
Since C-Z is negative under x1, x2 initial solution is not optimal and can be improved. X2
will enter and A2 will be deleted.
C 12 20 0 0 M Minimum
(F.R) (CB) (B) (b) X1 X2 S1 S2 A1 ratio
- M A1 20 4/3 0 -1 2/3 1 20/4/3=15
Since there are negative values it is not an optimal solution and can be improved. X1 will
replace A1.
C 12 20 0 0 Minimum ratio
(F.R) (CB) (B) (b) X1 X2 S1 S2
12 X1 15 1 0 -3/4 ½
20 X2 5/4 0 1 7/16 -3/4
Z 12 20 -1/4 -9
C-Z 0 0 1/4 9
Example 2
Maximize Z = 2x1 + 3x2 = 4x3
Subject to 3x1 + x2 + 4x3 600
2x1 + 4x2 + 2x3 480
2x1 + 3x2 + 3x3 = 540
Where x1, x2, x3 0
Solution
Standard form
Maximize Z = 2x1 + 3x2 + 4x3 + 0s1 + 0s2 – MA1 – MA2
Subject to 3x1 + x2 + 4x3 + S1 = 600
2x1 + 4x2 + 2x3 – S2 + A1 = 480
2x1 + 3x2 + 3x3 + A2 = 540
Where x1, x2, x3, S1, S2, A1, A2 0
Setting x1, x2 & x3 = 0, the following initial solution is obtained:
S1 = 600, A1 = 480 & A2 = 540; Z = - 1020 M.
C 2 3 4 0 0 -M -M Minimum
(F.R) (CB) (B) (b) X1 X2 X3 S1 S2 A1 A2 ratio
1/4 0 S1 600 3 1 4 1 0 0 0 600/1 = 600
- -M A1 480 2 (4) 2 0 -1 1 0 480/4 = 120
Since all C-Z are 0, the current solution is not optimal. Here x2 will replace A1.
C 2 3 4 0 0 -M Minimum
(F.R) (CB) (B) (b) X1 X2 X3 S1 S2 A2 ratio
7/3 0 S1 480 5/2 0 7/2 1 1/4 0 960/7
1/3 2 X2 120 ½ 1 1/2 0 -1/4 0 240
- -M A2 180 ½ 0 (3/2) 0 3/4 1 120
Since there is positive C – Z values it is not an optimal solution. Now we will introduce X3
and remove A2.
C 2 3 4 0 0 Minimum
(F.R) (CB) (B) (b) X1 X2 X3 S1 S2 ratio
0 S1 60 4/3 0 0 1 -3/2
2 X2 60 1/3 1 0 0 -1/2
4 X3 120 1/3 0 1 0 1/2
Z 7/3 3 4 0 1/2
C–Z -1/3 0 0 0 -1/2
Note: The new objective function in phase – I is always minimization type regardless of
whether the original problem is maximization or minimization type.
Example 1
Maximize Z = 5x1 + 3x2
Subject to 2x1 + x2 1
X1 + 4x2 6
Where x1, x2 0
Solution
C 0 0 0 0 1 Minimum
(F.R) (CB) (B) (b) X1 X2 S1 S2 A1 ratio
- 0 S1 1 2 (1) 1 0 0 1/1=1
1/4 1 A1 6 1 4 0 -1 1 6/2=3/2
Z 1 4 0 -1 1
C–Z -1 -4 0 1 0
C 0 0 0 0 1 Minimum
(F.R) (CB) (B) (b) X1 X2 S1 S2 A1 ratio
0 X1 1 2 1 1 0 0
1 A1 2 -7 0 -4 -1 1
Z -7 0 -4 -1 1
C–Z 7 0 4 0 0
Example 2
Maximize Z = 5x1 – 4x2 + 3x3
Subject to 2x1 + x2- 6x3 = 20
6x1 + 5x2 + 10x3 76
8x1 – 3x2 + 6x3 50
Where x1, x2, x3 0
Solution
Phase I
Step1. Introduce slack and artificial variables in the constraints of the given LP problem.
Maximize Z = 5x1 – 4x2 + 3x3 we set aside the objective function.
Subject to 2x1 + x2 - 6x3 + A1 = 20
6x1 + 5x2 + 10x3 + s1 = 76
8x1 – 3x2 + 6x3 + s2 = 50
Where x1, x2, x3, s1, s2, A1 0
C 0 0 0 0 0 1 Minimum
(F.R) (CB) (B) (b) X1 X2 X3 S1 S2 A1 ratio
¼ 1 A1 20 2 1 -6 0 0 1 20/2=10
¾ 0 S1 76 6 5 10 1 0 0 76/6=38/3
- 0 S2 50 (8) -3 6 0 1 0 50/8=25/4
Z 2 1 -6 0 0 1
C-Z -2 -1 6 0 0 0
Since C-Z is negative under some variables it is not optimal solution. X2 will replace A1.
C 0 0 0 0 0 1 Minimum
(F.R) (CB) (B) (b) X1 X2 X3 S1 S2 A1 ratio
0 X2 30/7 0 1 30/7 0 -1/7 4/7
0 S1 52/7 0 0 256/7 1 2/7 -29/7
0 X1 55/7 1 0 -6/7 0 1/14 ¾
Z 0 0 0 0 0 0
C-Z 0 0 0 0 0 1
Phase II. Phase II finds optimal solution for the original problem. Objective function for the
initial table of phase II is the objective function of the original problem. The remaining part
of initial table for phase II is the last table for phase I with the only difference C-Z.
C 5 -4 3 0 0 Minimum
(F.R) (CB) (B) (b) X1 X2 X3 S1 S2 ratio
-4 X2 30/7 0 1 30/7 0 -1/7
0 S1 52/7 0 0 256/7 1 2/7
5 X1 55/7 1 0 -6/7 0 1/14
Z 5 -4 90/7 0 13/14
C-Z 0 0 -69/7 0 -
13/14
Example 3:
Max Z = 4x1 + 3x2
Subject to 2x1 + x2 72
x1 + 2x2 48
Where x1, x2 0
Solution:
Minimize Z = 72y1 + 48y2
Subject to 2y1 + y2 4
y1 + 2y2 3
Where y1, y2 0
Standard Form:
Minimize Z = 72y1 + 48y2 + 0s1 + 0s2 + MA1 + MA2
Subject to 2y1 + y2 – s1 + A1 4
y1 + 2y2 – s2 + A2 3
Where y1, y2, s1, s2, A1, A2 0
C 72 48 0 0 M M Minimum ratio
(F.R) (CB) (B) (b) X1 X2 S1 S2 A1 A2
M A1 4 2 1 -1 0 1 0 4
M A2 3 1 2 0 -1 0 1 3/2
Z 3M 3M -M -M M M
C-Z 72 - 48 – M M 0 0
3M 3M
A2 will be replaced x2.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
While solving a linear programming problem for optimal solution, we assume that:
a. Technology is fixed
b. Fixed prices
c. Fixed levels of resources or requirements
d. The coefficients of variables in structural constraints (i.e. time required by a product
on a particular resource) are fixed, and
e. Profit contribution of the product will not vary during the planning period.
These assumptions, implying certainty, complete knowledge, and static conditions, permit
us to design an optimal programme. The condition in the real world however, might be
different from those that are assumed by the model. It is, therefore, desirable to determine
how sensitive the optimal solution is to different types of changes in the problem data and
parameters. The changes, which have effect on the optimal solution, are:
a. Change in objective function coefficients (aij)
b. Resource or requirement levels (bi),
c. Possible addition or deletion of products or methods of production.
The process of checking the sensitivity of the optimal solution for changes in resources and
other components of the problem, is given various names such as: Sensitivity Analysis,
Parametric Programming and Post optimality analysis or what if analysis.
They are designed to project the consequences of possible changes in the future, as well as
the impact of the possible errors of estimation of the past. The need for sensitivity analysis
arises due to:
i. To know the effect of and hence be prepared for, possible future changes in various
parameters and components of the problem,
ii. To know the degree of error in estimating certain parameters that could be
absorbed by the current optimal solution.
Or to put in other way, sensitivity analysis answers questions regarding what errors of
estimation could have been committed, or what possible future changes can occur, without
disturbing the optimality of the current optimal solution.
The outcome of sensitivity analysis fixes ranges i.e., upper limits and lower limits of
parameters like Cj, aij, bi etc. within which the current optimal programme will remain
optimal. Hence, we can say that the sensitivity analysis is a major guide to managerial
planning and control. Also sensitivity analysis arise the need for reworking of the entire
problem from the very beginning each time a change is investigated or incorporated. The
present optimal solution can be used to study the changes with minimum computational
effort. By adding or deleting a new column (product) or adding or deleting a new row (new
process) we can analyze the changes with respect to Cj, aij, and bi.
The above changes may results in one of the following three cases:
Case I. The optimal solution remains unchanged, that is the basic variables and their values
remain essentially unchanged.
Case II. The basic variables remain the same but their values are changed.
Case III. The basic solution changes completely.
Example 1:
Maximize Z = 2x1 + 2x2 + 5x3 + 4x4
1a + 3b + 4c + 3d ≤ 10
4a + 2b + 6c + 8d ≤ 25
a, b, c & d ≥ 0.
C 2 2 5 4 0 0 Minimum
(F.R) (CB) (B) (b) A b C d s1 s2 ratio
0 s1 10 1 3 (4) 3 1 0 10/4
0 s2 25 4 2 6 8 0 1 25/6
Z 0 0 0 0 0 0
C-Z 2 2 5 4 0 0
C 2 2 5 4 0 0 Minimum
(F.R) (CB) (B) (b) A b C d s1 s2 ratio
5 x3 5/2 ¼ ¾ 1 ¾ ¼ 0 10
0 s2 10 5/2 - 5/2 0 7/5 3/2 1 4
Z 5/4 15/4 5 15/4 5/4 0
C-Z ¾ -1.75 0 ¼ -5/4 0
C 2 2 5 4 0 0 Minimum
(F.R) (CB) (B) (b) a b c d s1 s2 ratio
5 x3 3/2 0 1 1 2/5 2/5 -1/10
2 x1 4 1 -1 0 7/5 -3/5 2/5
Z 2 3 5 2+14/5 2-
C-Z 6/5
0 -1 0 -4/5 -4/5 -3/10
Here ‘a’ and ‘c’ are basic variables and ‘b’ and‘d’ are non–basic variables. Consider a small
change x1 in the objective coefficient of the variable ‘b’, and then its index row (C – Z/net
evaluation row) element becomes:
2. Basic variables
Now let us consider a change in the objective coefficient of the basic variable in the optimal
solution. Here, it affects the net evaluation row coefficients of all the variables. Hence, as
soon as the C – Z/net evaluation row coefficients of basic variables become negative, it
leaves the solution, and that of non-basic variable becomes positive, it becomes an
incoming variable. In either case the present optimal solution changes.
Consider the above example. Let us say that there is a small reduction ‘x1’ in the objective
coefficient of variable ‘a’ i.e., (2– x1) then the net evaluation row coefficients of variables
are:
A reduction in objective coefficient of variable 'a' by more than 4/7 and the present optimal
solution change. i.e., the value is 2 – 4/7 = 10/7.
When the objective coefficient of variable ‘a’ increases by a value x2, the changes are:
If x2 is ≥ 1 the variable ‘b’ claims the entry into solution and the optimal solution
changes.
Maximize Z = 4x + 5y + 6z
3x + 5y + 5z ≤ 900
10x + 2y + 6z ≤ 1400
1x + 1y + 1z ≤ 250
x, y, & z ≥ 0
Question 1: If the management considers to increase man-hours by 100 hours i.e., from
900 hours to 1000 hours and machine hours by 200 hours i.e., 1400 hours to 1600 hours
will the optimal solution remain unchanged?
Now let us consider the elements in the identity matrix and discuss the answer to the above
question.
C 2 2 5 4 0 0 Minimum
(F.R) (CB) (B) (b) x y z s1 s2 s3 ratio
6 z 150 0 11/8 1 5/16 -3/32 10
4 x 50 1 -5/8 0 -3/16 5/32 0
0 s3 50 0 1/4 0 -1/8 -1/16 1
Z
C-Z 0 -23/4 0 -9/8 -1/16 0
Maximize
Where
The two sets of constraints will be consistent i.e. the system will be in balance if:-
Destinations
1 2 3 4 5 Supply
source
origin
Example1.
Destination
1 2 3 4 Supply
O
r
i
Demand 7 5 3 2
Solution
1. The upper left corner is cell c11, where demand is 7 and supply is 6. So allocate 6 in cell
c11. Demand is not met.
2. Now move vertically to cell c21, here demand is 7 – 6 = 1 and supply is 1. So allocate 1
to cell 21.
3. Move to cell c32, where demand is 5 and supply is 10. So allocate 5 to cell c32.
4. Move horizontally to cell c33, where demand is 3 and supply is 10 – 5 = 5. So allocate 3
to cell c33.
5. Move horizontally to cell c34, where demand is 3 and supply is 10 – 5 – 3 = 2. So
allocate 2 to cell c34.
Destination
1 2 3 4 Supply
1 2 3 11 7 6
2 1 0 6 1 1
Origin
3 5 8 15 9 10
Demand 7 5 3 2
Total cost = 2 x 6 + 1 x 1 + 8 x 5 + 15 x 3 + 9 x 2 = 116
Example2.
Destination
D E F G Supply
A 11 13 17 14 250
B 16 18 14 10 300
Origin
C 21 24 13 10 400
Demand 200 225 275 250
Solution
1. The upper left cell is c11, where the demand is 200 and supply is 250. So
allocate 200 in c11. Here demand could meet supply.
2. Now move horizontally to the next cell c12. Here demand is 225 and supply is
250 – 200 = 50, so allocate 50 to cell c12.
3. Move vertically to the next cell c22. Here demand is 225 – 50 = 175 and supply
is 300. So allocate 175 to cell c22.
4. Move horizontally to the next cell c23. Here demand is 275 and supply is 300 –
175 = 125. So allocate 125 to cell c23.
5. Move vertically to the next cell c33. Here demand is 275 – 125 = 150 and supply
is 400. So allocate 150 to cell c33.
Example1
Distribution centers
1 2 3 4 Supply
1 2 3 11 7 6
2 1 0 6 1 1
3 5 8 15 9 10
Plant
Demand 7 5 3 2
Solution
Here, the lowest cost cell is (2, 2) maximum feasible allocation in this cell is (1). This
meets the supply position of plant 2. Therefore row is crossed out, indicating that no
allocations are to be made in cells (2, 1), (2, 3) and (2, 4). The next lowest cost cell is (1,
1) maximum allocation (6) is made here and row 1 is crossed out. Next lowest cell in
row 3 is (3, 1) and allocation of (1) is made. Likewise, allocation of (4), (2) and (3) are
made in cells (3, 2), (3, 4) and (3, 3) respectively.
Distribution centers
1 2 3 4 Supply
1 2 (6) 3 11 7 6
2 1 0 (1) 6 1 1
3 5 (1) 8 (4) 15 (3) 9 (2) 10
Plant
Demand 7 5 3 2
Solution
On the examination we find there are 3 cells having minimum cost 1 Birr. These are
cell (1, 1,), (2, and 3) and (4, 1). Allocate maximum quantities to these cells as
shown.
A B C Demand
I 1 (50) 2 3 50
II 3 2 1 (80) 80
III 4 (70) 5 6 (5) 75
IV 3 1 (80) 2 (15) 95
Supply 120 80 100
Demand 7 5 3 2
4 X X 9
Solution
Here row 4 has the maximum difference. Hence select 4th row and allocate maximum
quantity in cell (4, 2) which is having minimum cost – 1. Maximum permissible
quantity is 80.
A B C Demand Row penalty
I 1 (50) 2 3 50 1 2 XX
II 5 2 4 (80) 80 2111
III 4 (70) 5 6 (5) 75 122 2
IV 3 1 (80) 2 (15) 95 3 111
Supply 120 80 100
Column 2 3 1
penalty 2 X 1
1 X 2
X X 2
Example1
Destination
D1 D2 D3 D4 Supply
S1 21 32 52 12 7
Origin
S2 72 32 42 62 9
S3 42 10 72 22 18
Demand 5 8 7 14
Solution: by applying VAM method for initial solution, we will get the following initial
solution.
1. Find initial basic feasible solution by VAM.
D1 D2 D3 D4 Supply Ui
S1 21 32 52 12 7 U1 = 12
(5) (2)
S2 72 32 42 62 9 U2 = 62
(7) (2) -
S3 42 10 72 22 18 U3 = 22
2. In this initial solution, we have total of 6 allocations, which are equal to (m + n - 1),
hence it is not a degeneracy problem. Therefore, we can obtain its optimal solution.
The cost is birr 8,47,000
3. To calculate the values of ui and vj for each allocated cell, we take v4 = 0 randomly to
simplify the calculations.
Cij = ui + vj
Now c34 = u3 + v4 = 22,
u3 = 22 + 0 = 22
c24 = u2 + v4 = 62
u2 = 62 +v4 = 62
c14 = u1 + v4 = 12
u1= 12 + v4 = 12
By using the values of u1, u2 & u3 we can find the values of v1, v2 & v3.
c11 = u1 + v1 c23 = u2 + v3 c32 = u3 + v2
21 = 12 + v1 42 = 62 + v3 10 = 22 + v2
v1= 9 v2 = -20 v2 = -12
4. We will calculate the opportunity cost for each non allocated cell.
Zij = cij – (ui + vi)
z12 = c12 – (u1 + v2) = 32 – (12 - 12) = 32
z13 = c13 – (u1 + v3) = 52 – (12 - 20) = 60
z21 = c21 – (u2 + v1) = 72 – (62 + 9) = 1
z22 = c22 – (u2 + v2) = 32 – (62 - 12) = -18
z31 = c31 – (u3 + v1) = 42 – (22 + 9) = 11
z33 = c33 – (u3 + v3) = 72 – (22 - 20) = 70
5. Since not all the values are positive or zero, the current solution is not optimal. The
value of z22 = - 18 in cell (s2, D2) is indicating that total cost can be reduced in the
multiple of 18 by shifting the allocation of this cell.
6. A closed loop drawn along s2 to an occupied cell (s3, D2). Mark a (+) sign cell (s2, D2)
and (-) sign on (s3, D2). Take a right angle turn and find an allocated cell in column
D4. An allocated cell (s3, D4) exists at row 3 and marks (+) signs on this cell, while
continuing the process like this. Complete the closed loop.
7. Select the smallest allocation, which will determine the maximum number of units that
can be shifted along the closed loop. We will select cell (s2, D4) as it has the smallest
allocation. Now, this value will be added to cell (s2, D2) and (s3, D4) which have (+)
D1 D2 D3 D4 Supply Ui
S1 21 32 52 12 7 U1 = 0
(5) (2)
S2 72 32 42 62 9 U2 = 32
(2) (7)
S3 42 10 72 22 18 U3 = 10
(6) (12)
Demand 5 8 7 14
Vj V1 = 21 V2 = 0 V3 = 10 V4 = 12
c14 = u1 + v4 = 12 c32 = u3 + v2 = 10
= 0 + v4 = 10 + v2
V4 = 12 v2 = 0
c22 = u2 + v2 = 32 c34 = u3 + v4 = 22
= u2 + 0 = u3 + 12
u2 = 32 u3 = 10
CHAPTER - IV
ASSIGNMENT MODEL
The Assignment Problem (AP) is a special case of transportation problem under the
condition is that the number of origins is equal to number of destinations. The objective is
to assign the given job (task) to most appropriate machine (person) so as to optimize the
objective function like minimizing cost. The unit available and the unit demanded should be
equal and there should be exactly one occupied cell in each row and column of the table.
Here, m = n
Hence assignment is made on the basis of 1:1.
HUNGARIAN METHOD
The Hungarian method was created by Mr. D. Koning of Hungary. He stated a theorem for
the method of modifying the rows and columns of matrix until there is at least one zero
component in each row and column, so that a complete assignment corresponding to the zero
can be made, which result in optimal solution. The Hungarian method of minimization case
consists of the following steps: -
1. Prepare a square matrix; this step will not be required for n x n assignment. For m x n
problems a dummy column or row is added as case may be to make the matrix square.
Man
Task E F G H
A 20 28 19 13
B 15 30 16 28
C 40 21 20 17
D 21 28 26 12
2. Reduce the matrix by subtracting the smallest element of each row from every element
of the corresponding row.
Man
Task E F G H
A 7 15 6 0
B 0 15 1 13
C 23 4 3 0
D 9 16 14 0
3. Examine if there is at least on zero in each column. If not, subtract the smallest
element of the columns.
Man
Task E F G H
A 7 11 5 0
B 0 11 0 13
C 23 0 2 0
D 9 12 13 0
Man
Task E F G H
A 7 11 5 (0)
B (0) 11 0 13
C 23 (0) 2 0
D 9 12 13 0
Here, column 3 does not have any assignment, so will move into the next step.
Man
Task E F G H √ (b)
A 7 11 5 (0) √ (c)
B (0) 11 0 13
C 23 (0) 2 0
D 9 12 13 0 √ (a)
Now since each row and column has one and only one assignment an optimal solution is
reached. The optimum assignment is: -
A G, B E, C F and B H
Maximization problem
In some special type of assignment problem, it is possible to find out a situation where the
objective function is to maximize instead of minimize. To deal with such kind of problems,
one has to convert the maximization into minimization problem. This could be achieved by
subtracting all the elements from the highest element of the matrix.
Example
Districts
Salesman 1 2 3 4
A 18 12 16 13
B 16 13 17 17
C 17 17 15 14
D 15 14 16 17
Solution
Step1. Convert maximization into minimization.
Districts
Salesman 1 2 3 4
A 0 6 2 5
B 2 5 1 1
Districts
Salesman 1 2 3 4
A 0 6 2 5
B 2 5 0 0
C 0 0 3 4
D 3 4 2 0
Then, the assignments will be: A 1, B 3, C 2 and D 4. Hence, the maximum sales per
day = 18 + 17 + 17 + 17 = 69
In some special cases of assignment, it is possible to find out a matrix which is not a square.
It is called a non square or unbalanced problem, in which number rows not equal to
number of columns. To solve such kind of problems, firstly, we have to make the
unbalanced matrix a square matrix by adding suitable dummy row or column. After making
the dummy row or column, traditional Hungarian method can be applied to solve the
assignment problem.
Example
A B C D
1 9 14 19 15
2 7 17 20 19
3 9 18 21 18
Solution The given cost matrix is not balanced, so we will add a dummy column with zero
cost in that column. The cost matrix after adding a dummy column will be as follows: -
A B C D E
1 9 14 19 15 0
2 7 17 20 19 0
3 9 18 21 18 0
4 10 12 18 19 0
5 10 15 21 16 0
CHAPTER - V
NETWORK MODELS AND PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Project is any undertaking that has definite, final objectives representing specified values to
be used in the satisfaction of some need or desire. In other words, Project is a set of
activities which are related to each other and are to be completed to signal the end of the
given project. Project management is different from manufacturing, sales and marketing
and yet, it involves every one of them. Setting up a factory is a project, building a bridge or
developing technology for new telephone network. This involves the activities like
scheduling, sequencing and forecasting. This also calls for managerial functions like
planning, organizing, directing and staffing.
Network Techniques
Network is a technique in which a project is broken down into various activities which are
arranged in logical sequence in the form of a network. This approach assists managers to
visualize a project as a number of tasks which can be easily defined in terms of its duration,
cost, starting time and finishing time. There are two important techniques: -
Critical Path Method (CPM).
Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT).
Important terms
Events: - the beginning and end points of an activity are events or nodes.
Activity: - any task or piece of work which consumes money, time and man power.
Predecessor activity: - an activity which should be completed before any activity
could start.
Successor activity: - an activity which starts immediately after any activity is
completed.
Path: - a broken chain of activities arrows connecting the initial event to some other
event.
Dummy activity: - an activity which only determines the dependency of one activity
on the other, but does not consume any time and resources.
Loop: - when an activity goes back to the starting event.
5
E
4 7 8
D D G H
The critical path of a network gives the shortest time in which the whole project can be
completed. It is the chain of activities with the longest time duration. These activities are
called critical activities. They are critical in the sense that delay in any of them result in
the delay of the completion of the project. The critical path analysis consists of the
following steps:-
1. Calculate the time schedule for each activity: It involves the determination of the
time by which an activity must begin and the time before which it must be
completed. The time schedule data for each activity include the calculation of the
earliest start, the earliest finish, the latest start times and the float.
2. Calculate the time schedule for the completion of the entire project: It involves
the calculation of project completion time.
3. Identify the critical activity and find the critical path: Critical activities are the
ones which must be started and completed on the schedule or else the project may
get delayed. The path containing these activities is the critical path and is the longest
path in terms of duration.
Example: - Draw a network diagram and solve the problem by using CPM.
Activity: 1-2, 1-3, 2-3, 2-5, 3-4, 3-6, 4-5, 4-6, 5-6 and 6-7
Duration: 15 15 3 5 8 12 1 14 3 and 14
E=18 E=40 E=54
L=18 L=40 L=54
12 14 6 7
3
E=26
E=0 15 8 L=26 14 3
L=0 3
4
1
1 2
Prepared by: - Addisu Teferi Operations Research Handout
Page 53
15 5
E=15 E=27 5
L=15 L=37
The critical path method may provide results by the following two types of calculations: -
A. Forward pass method
The Earliest Start Time (E) for an activity represents the time at which an activity
can begin at the earliest. Example, Earliest start time of activity 1-2 and 1-3 is zero
(0) or the earliest occurrence time of event 1 is zero (0). Earliest start time of
activities 2-3 and 2-5 or the earliest occurrence time of event 2 is obtained by adding
0 + 15 = 15.
Here if, more than one activity coverage’s on its E’s via all paths would be computed
and the highest value chosen and put around the event.
B. Backward pass method
The Latest Finish Time (L) this calculated by proceeding progressively from the end
event to the start event. The Latest finish time for the last event is assumed to be
equal to its E.
Here, if more than one activity originates from an event, compute L’s via all the paths
and chose the smallest value and put it around the event.
Earliest Finish Time (T ) and the Latest Start Time (T ) for an activity are
computed.
T = E + tij
T = L – tij
Here, tij = time duration of activity.
F = L - T or F = T -E
Here, F = Total Float.
Critical path is the path containing activities with zero (0) Float. For the
problem at hand it is 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 – 6 – 7 shown by double arrows are critical
path. The project duration is 54 weeks. Non critical activities have positive
Float. Delay in any critical activity will delay the project.
CHAPTER SIX
Decision Theory
Decision theory is a systematic procedure to identify the best possible decision among the
various available alternatives. Decision theory enables the decision maker to take the best
suitable decision by providing him the facilities to evaluate and examine the decisions as
State of Nature
Alternatives s1 s2 s3
a1 v11 v12 v13
a2 v21 v22 v23
a3 v31 v32 v33
Under conditions of uncertainty, a few decision criterions are available which could be of
help to the decision maker these are:
When dealing with costs, the minimum of each alternative is considered and then the
alternative which minimizes the above minimum cost is selected. This is called Minimin
criterion.
Thus, this criterion identifies the worst outcome of each alternative and then selects the
best of those worst outcomes.
When dealing with costs, the maximum cost associated with each alternative is considered
and the alternative that minimizes the above maximum cost is selected. This called
Minimax Criterion.
This table shows, the decision maker first identify the maximum opportunity loss in each
row and then choose the alternative that would yield the best (minimum) of those regrets.
EMV =
We can compute the expected payoff for the real estate developer alternative. The EMV of
the Residential alternative is:
EMVR = (4x0.2) + (16x0.5) + (12x0.3) = 12.40
EMVC-I = (5x0.2) + (6x0.5) + (10x0.3) = 7.00
EMVC-II = (-1x0.2) + (4x0.5) + (15x0.3) = 6.30
Since the residential alternative has the largest EMV, it would be selecting using this
criterion.
Note: the EOL approach resulted in the same alternative as EMV approach. The two
methods always result in the same choice.
Consider once again the payoff the real estate investor could expect under certainty.
If the investor knew that No. center would be built, commercial – I. proposal would
be chosen and in which case a payoff Birr 5 could be realized; if the investor knew a
Medium size shopping center would built, the residential would be chosen for best
payoff Birr 16 and if the investor knew that large center would be built, commercial
– II proposal would be chosen for a payoff of Birr 15. Such are what we all decision
strategies that the investor is starting out which alternative to pick provided that a
certain state of nature is known to occur. However, what can be said is that the
probability that perfect information will indicate a Medium center w
Decision-making under uncertainty is challenged by the absence of known probabilities for potential states of nature, complicating the decision analysis process. This uncertainty necessitates reliance on theoretical criteria like the Maximax, Maximin, or Minimax Regret, which don't require probability assessments but instead evaluate outcomes based on optimism, pessimism, or balance to inform decisions. Decision theory addresses these complexities by providing structured strategies that guide choices by offering insights into risk tolerance and potential regrets, aiding rational decision-making despite missing probability information .
Identifying a pivot element in the simplex method is crucial for transitioning from one basic feasible solution to a better one. The pivot element is selected from the pivot column, identified by the most negative value in the Z row, indicating which variable should enter the basis. The minimum ratio test then determines the pivot row by dividing solution values by corresponding pivot column values, choosing the smallest positive ratio to ensure feasible moves. This iterative process steers the optimization towards an improved objective value .
The Maximax criterion reflects an optimistic approach, selecting the decision alternative associated with the maximum possible payoff. It tends to favor decisions with potentially high rewards, albeit often with higher risks. Conversely, the Minimax (Regret) criterion takes a more balanced approach by focusing on minimizing maximum regret, thereby providing a measure that reflects the potential cost of not choosing the best alternative under each state of nature. This criterion considers all outcomes and offers a hedge against poor decisions by balancing adverse outcomes .
Artificial variables are introduced to facilitate finding an initial feasible solution in linear programming problems, particularly when a feasible solution is not apparent. These variables temporarily satisfy constraints as a means to apply the simplex algorithm from an initial feasible point. The ultimate goal is to eliminate these artificial variables through optimization to achieve a solution that is feasible without them, thus arriving at an optimal solution that satisfies the original problem's constraints without the artificial aid .
The 'C-Z' value, representing the difference between cost coefficients and the current solution's cost indicator, plays a pivotal role in the simplex method. A positive C-Z signals the potential for increased profit or reduced cost, dictating the variable to enter the basis. A zero or negative C-Z indicates that the solution is already or sub-optimally constrained and cannot be improved further along that dimension. This insight directs the algorithm's iterative progression towards improved objective functions .
Slack variables are used in linear programming to transform inequality constraints into equality constraints, making the problem solvable using the simplex method. By adding slack variables, the inequalities become equations, which allows for an initial basic feasible solution where the slack variables are included as part of the initial solution set .
The opportunity loss table is crucial in decision theory as it quantifies the cost of not choosing the optimal decision alternative under each state of nature. It aids decision-making by allowing the decision maker to minimize regret by focusing on the decision alternative with the smallest potential loss. This method accounts for uncertainty by considering potential outcomes and their associated regrets, enabling a more informed and balanced approach to decision-making than strategies focusing on extremes .
The Maximin Criterion guides decision-making by selecting the alternative that maximizes the minimum payoff, providing a conservative decision-making approach. It identifies the least negative payoff or loss for each decision alternative and then chooses the strongest among those. However, its limitation lies in focusing exclusively on worst-case scenarios, potentially ignoring better overall choices by not considering other possible outcomes .
Decision-making under risk involves conditions where probabilities of different states of nature are known, allowing for more calculated decisions. Approaches like the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) are employed, as they account for weighted averages of outcomes based on known probabilities. In contrast, decision-making under uncertainty lacks these probability assignments, leading to strategies that rely more on best, worst, or average case analyses without precise probabilities .
The 'Insufficient Reason Principle' is applied under conditions of uncertainty, where the decision maker lacks information to assign probabilities to different states of nature. It assumes all states are equally likely and focuses on the average payoff across all possibilities, guiding the chooser to select the alternative with the highest average outcome. This principle is applied when there's insufficient data to predict which state will occur, emphasizing an even-handed treatment of all potential outcomes .