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Bivariate Normal Distribution Analysis

The document provides analysis of data from 12 offices including total cost (Y) and number of clients (X). 1) A linear regression model is assumed: Y = α + βX + ε. The error term ε captures unexplained variability in costs. 2) Estimates are calculated as: α = 1,175 (intercept), β = 43.75 (cost per client). 3) R-squared is 0.99, meaning the linear model explains 99% of the variability in total costs based on the number of clients.

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Munna Choudhary
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
11 views5 pages

Bivariate Normal Distribution Analysis

The document provides analysis of data from 12 offices including total cost (Y) and number of clients (X). 1) A linear regression model is assumed: Y = α + βX + ε. The error term ε captures unexplained variability in costs. 2) Estimates are calculated as: α = 1,175 (intercept), β = 43.75 (cost per client). 3) R-squared is 0.99, meaning the linear model explains 99% of the variability in total costs based on the number of clients.

Uploaded by

Munna Choudhary
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

EXERCISE SHEET 7

1. Assume the X and Y are random variables and they have bivariate Normal
distribution (A bivariate normal distribution is made up of two independent
random variables. The two variables in a bivariate normal are both are
normally distributed, and they have a normal distribution when both are
added together.)

x y
5 8
7 9
3 11
16 27
12 15
9 13

C
a) Calculate the correlation coefficient between X and Y, using the r =
√ AB
formula, where

C=¿ n ∑ x i yi −∑ x i ∑ y i
A=¿ n ∑ x i2−¿ ¿ ¿
B=n ∑ y i −¿ ¿ ¿ ¿
2

5 8 40 25 64
7 9 63 49 81
3 11 33 9 121
16 27 432 256 729
12 15 180 144 225
9 13 117 81 169

C=¿ n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y =6∗865−52∗83=874


A=¿ n ∑ x i2−¿ ¿ ¿
B=n ∑ y i −¿ ¿ ¿ ¿
2

C 874
r= = = 0.88
√ AB √ 680∗1445

1
b) Test the significance of the sample correlation coefficient using a 95%
confidence level.
Step 1: Hypothesis
H 0 : ρ=0; H 1 : ρ ≠ 0
Step2: use the formula to calculate test value for t
r
t=
Test value:
√ 1−r 2
n−2
0.88
t= =¿
Test value:
√ 1−.88 2
6−2
3.7

Step3: T-table critical value


Two tails tests because # r value can go less than 0 or higher than 0
So, α/2= 5/2=2.5 % =0.025
Degree of Freedom
V = n-2= 6-2=4
With 4 degree of freedom with 0.025 significant level, critical value is 2.776

Step 4: make the decision


Test value is greater than the table value/critical value. So, reject the null
hypothesis (r=0).

c) Consider the following regression model and data for x and y:

y  0  1 x  

x y
5 8
7 9
3 11
16 27
12 15
9 13
Calculate the least squares estimates of the intercept and the slope of the
regression model.

Answer:

5 8 40 25 64
7 9 63 49 81

2
3 11 33 9 121
16 27 432 256 729
12 15 180 144 225
9 13 117 81 169

C
Slope: The estimator for β=b=
A

Intercept:

d) Show the estimated linear regression function

Estimated linear regression function:

e) Calculate R-squared and explain the results.

Answer:

3
3. A consultancy firm has offices in over 100 different cities. The managers have the
impression that some offices work more efficiently than others in giving advice to
clients. They ask you to conduct a statistical analysis to provide a benchmark on
which different offices can be evaluated.

The management provides you with data on 12 offices. The data are given in the table
below and consist of the total cost Y and the number of clients X of an office.

You are also given the following values:

Σx = 512 Σy = 2275 Σx2 = 24290 Σy2 = 471529 Σxy = 106941

The management assumes that the relationship between total cost and the number of
clients is linear.

(a) Based on top management’s assumption, what is the underlying theoretical


regression model
Regression line will be of the form:
Where y is the total cost, x is the number of clients.

(b) What are the assumptions of ordinary least squares methods?

Assumptions underlying the OLS regression model


yi = α + β · xi + εi with εi ~N(0,σ2)

1. εi is a random variable with mean zero, E[εi] = 0


2. Variance of εi is the same (constant) for all values of X, Var(εi) = σ2
3. The values of εi are stochastically independent (Uncorrelated with one
another)
4. The error term εi is a normally distributed random variable
5. The independent (explanatory) variables are fixed. They are not random
variable
4
(c) What term captures unsystematic influences on total cost in the model and
what assumptions are made about these terms when estimating the regression model?

The error term captures the unsystematic influences. The error term is assumed
to be normally distributed with mean 0 and a constant variance σ 2. In other words,
ε N ¿).

(d) Calculate the estimates for the unknown model parameters and show
the estimated linear regression function.
The parameters to be estimated are as always α and β
C
The estimator for β=b=
A
Where,
C=n ∑ xy−∑ x y= (12 ×106,941 ) −( 512× 2,275 )=118,492

Therefore, ;

Hence, the equation line is of the following form:


(e) What is the interpretation of the intercept and the slope coefficient?

The intercept is the fixed cost while the slope is the cost per client.

(f) Calculate the coefficient of determination, R2. Explain your result

(10%)

R-square of 0.99: It means that 99% of the variability of the total cost of the offices is
explained by the number of clients.

Common questions

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Benchmarking the efficiency of different offices using statistical data involves several steps: 1) Define the metric for efficiency, such as cost per client. 2) Collect relevant data including total costs, number of clients, and other variables affecting performance. 3) Use regression analysis to establish a relationship between total cost and number of clients, identifying the underlying regression model . 4) Calculate efficiency indicators like cost function parameters, R-squared, and residual analysis. 5) Compare these indicators across offices to identify outliers or offices performing above or below the expected efficiency . 6) Conduct variance analysis to understand the reasons behind efficiency differences and formulate strategies for improvement. This systematic approach enables the firm to set benchmarks based on empirical data, fostering a culture of continuous performance monitoring and improvement.

The R-squared value in regression analysis represents the proportion of variability in the dependent variable that can be explained by the independent variable(s). In the context of evaluating office efficiency, an R-squared value of 0.99 indicates that 99% of the variability in the total cost of offices is explained by the number of clients . This high R-squared value suggests a strong linear relationship and that the number of clients is a significant predictor of total cost, providing a reliable benchmark for comparing the efficiency of different offices.

The key assumptions underlying the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model are: 1) The error term ε is a random variable with a mean of zero (E[ε] = 0). 2) The variance of ε is constant for all values of X (homoscedasticity, Var(ε) = σ²). 3) The error terms are uncorrelated with each other (independence). 4) The error term is normally distributed. 5) The independent variables are fixed, not random . These assumptions are crucial because they ensure that the OLS estimators are unbiased, efficient, and consistent. Violation of these assumptions can lead to inaccurate estimates and invalid inferences about the relationships between variables.

The linear regression function is estimated using the least squares method by calculating the slope (β) and intercept (α) coefficients. For slope β, the formula is β = C/A, where C = n∑xy - ∑x∑y and A = n∑x² - (∑x)². Using the provided data, the estimates are calculated with C = 118,492 . The resulting regression equation is of the form y = α + βx. While the intercept α would be calculated similarly, it's not explicitly given in the provided data . The estimated regression function allows prediction of the dependent variable based on the independent variable.

Rejecting the null hypothesis in the context of testing the significance of a correlation means concluding that there is a statistically significant relationship between the variables under study. For instance, in testing whether the correlation coefficient for two variables is different from zero, rejecting the null hypothesis (H0: ρ = 0) suggests that the observed correlation is unlikely to have occurred by chance and that there is a real association between the variables . This has important implications for research and practical applications, as it indicates that changes in one variable are systematically associated with changes in the other, guiding further analysis and decision-making.

In regression analysis, error terms represent the unsystematic, random variation in the dependent variable that is not explained by the independent variables. They capture the stochastic influences in the model, reflecting the deviation of the observed values from the predicted values by the regression line . The assumptions about error terms include that they are normally distributed with a mean of zero and constant variance (homoscedasticity), are uncorrelated with each other, and are uncorrelated with the independent variables. These assumptions ensure the validity of the inference drawn from the regression model.

In a linear regression model, the slope represents the change in the dependent variable (in this case, total cost) for each unit change in the independent variable (number of clients). The intercept represents the fixed component of the dependent variable that does not change with the independent variable. For the consultancy firm's analysis, the slope is interpreted as the cost per client, and the intercept as the fixed cost. Together, they define the cost structure, indicating how the total cost varies with the number of clients served and the baseline costs independent of client numbers .

Knowledge of multiple regression models enhances decision-making in a managerial context by allowing the simultaneous evaluation of multiple factors influencing an outcome. In the scenario of assessing office efficiency, multiple regression can incorporate various determinants of cost, such as number of clients, geographical location, staff numbers, and technological investments. This comprehensive approach allows managers to identify key drivers of efficiency and allocate resources more effectively, making data-driven decisions to optimize operations and benchmark performance across offices . Moreover, it helps in controlling for confounding variables, thereby isolating the impact of each factor on office efficiency, leading to more accurate and actionable insights.

Testing the significance of a sample correlation coefficient involves several steps: 1) Formulate the null hypothesis H0: ρ = 0 and the alternative hypothesis H1: ρ ≠ 0. 2) Calculate the test value for t using the formula t = r √((1-r²) / (n-2)). With a correlation coefficient of 0.88 and a sample size of 6, the test value is 3.7 . 3) Determine the critical t-value from the t-distribution table at the chosen significance level (0.025 for a two-tailed test with 4 degrees of freedom), which is 2.776 . 4) Compare the test value to the critical value; since the test value (3.7) is greater than the critical value (2.776), we reject the null hypothesis . This signifies that the correlation is statistically significant, suggesting that the observed correlation is unlikely to have occurred by chance.

To calculate the correlation coefficient between two variables in a bivariate Normal distribution, you use the formula r = C / √(AB), where C = n∑xy - ∑x∑y, A = n∑x² - (∑x)², and B = n∑y² - (∑y)². Given the data provided, the correlation coefficient calculated is 0.88 . This implies a strong positive correlation between the two variables, indicating that as one variable increases, the other tends to increase as well.

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