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Analyzing Qullamaggie's Trading Insights

This document summarizes a discussion on common characteristics of stocks that increased over 100% in a year in the Indian market. It finds that many such stocks exhibited strong earnings, were near their 52-week high, had news or earnings catalysts, and showed double-digit earnings and sales growth recently. Specific strategies are discussed like tracking stocks with triple-digit earnings growth and 20%+ sales growth after an earnings report rather than just gap ups. Examples of past big winning stocks are provided to illustrate the strategies.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
116 views12 pages

Analyzing Qullamaggie's Trading Insights

This document summarizes a discussion on common characteristics of stocks that increased over 100% in a year in the Indian market. It finds that many such stocks exhibited strong earnings, were near their 52-week high, had news or earnings catalysts, and showed double-digit earnings and sales growth recently. Specific strategies are discussed like tracking stocks with triple-digit earnings growth and 20%+ sales growth after an earnings report rather than just gap ups. Examples of past big winning stocks are provided to illustrate the strategies.

Uploaded by

sheokandameet
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
  • Introduction to Stock Market Analysis
  • Stock Breakout Strategies
  • Strategies for Winning Stocks
  • Concepts of Earnings Power (EP)
  • Visual Analysis of Stock Performance
  • News EPS and Impact on Stocks
  • Case Studies in Modern Stock Movements
  • Importance of Fundamentals in Trading
  • EPS/Sales Analysis
  • Case Study: Nitinspinners and Angel One
  • Conclusion and Further Resources

A LONG THREAD

#BiggestWinnersOfIndia DEEP DIVE ON 125STOCKS WHICH ARE UP 100%+ IN A YEAR


-COMMON CHARACTERISTICS
-HV1/HVE/HVIPO @RaiTrades @TraderLion_ EDGE
-ATH STOCKS
-52WK HIGH STOCKS @mwebster1971
-EP @PradeepBonde @Qullamaggie EDGE
-NEWS EP
-FUNDAMENTALS
-EPS/SALES

HV1/HVE/HVIPO RAI SAID NOT EVERY BIG WINNING STOCK HAS THESE CHARACTERISTICS BUT 70%HAS.
AND IT ALSO TRUE IN INDIAN MARKET AS WELL . 67 STOCKS OUT OF 125 HAS HV1/HVIPO/HVE. BUT
MOST OF THE STOCK HV1/HVE COME AFTER EARNINGS RELEASE / BIG ORDERS NEWS .

IN BEAR MARKET IF YOU ONLY USE THESE CHARACTERISTICS COMBINING WITH NEWS/EARNINGS
INSTEAD OF SIMPLE BREAKOUT STUPS YOU CAN INCREASE YOUR WINRATE. BELOW ARE THE SOME
EXAMPLES:
2015 BEAR MARKET
#CHENNPETRO 106% IN 40DAYS . HVE ON Q4 EARNINGS

2017 BULL MARKET


#BEPL 421% IN 153DAYS
STOCK BREAKOUT FROM LONG BASE AND GAIN MOMENTUM ON HVE

#ATH STOCKS IF YOU ARE ONLY TRADING IN ATH STOCKS YOU ARE MISSING LOTS OF BIG WINNING
STOCKS BECAUSE ONLY 25 STOCKS OUT 125 STOCKS ARE ON ATH WHEN THEY GAVE BREAKOUT FROM
RANGE/BASE. BELOW ARE THE SOME EXAMPLES: ATH STOCKS
#VENKEYS 197% IN 72DAYS
#ATGL 328% IN 75DAYS
-52WK HIGH The concept is based on what @mwebster1971 shared on IBD Live to see if a current
pullback from the highs is normal compared to historical pullbacks or not. so i add one more filter to my
past big winners study is 52wk high .

CONDITION: THE STOCK HAS TO BE WITHIN 25% FROM ITS 52WK HIGH WHEN THEY GAVE BREAKOUT.
I SURPRISED AFTER DOING THIS STUDY BECAUSE 122 OUT OF 125STOCKS ARE IN THEIR 25% RANGE
FROM 52WK HIGH . IF YOU WANT ONLY ONE SCAN GO FOR 52WK HIGH SCAN .
#EP MOST POWERFUL CONCEPT INTRODUCED BY @PradeepBonde BUT I LEARNED FROM THIS
@Qullamaggie VIDEOS . TWO TYPES OF EP
1 EARNINGS EP
2 NEWS EP
1) EARNINGS EP HAPPENS WHEN STOCK OPEN GAP UP AFTER STRONG EARNING RELEASE.
2) NEWS EP HAPPENS WHEN STOCK OPEN GAP UP ON SOME NEWS

SO EP WORKS IN INDIA ? THE ANSWER IS YES BUT YOU NEED TO CHANGE SOME RULES FOR IT TO
WORKS FOR YOU IN INDIAN MARKET. IN US MARKET PARDEEP /QULLAMAGGIE BUY GAP UP BECAUSE
THERE IS NO CIRCUIT LIMIT .BUT IN INDIAN MARKET GAP UP BUY DOESN'T WORK.

60 OUT OF 125 STOCKS STARTED THEIR MOVE FROM EARNINGS. SO HOW TO TRADE EP IN OUR
MARKET? FIRST OF ALL REACTION MATTERS ON EARNINGS . SOMETIMES STOCK RALLY ONLY ON EPS ,
SOMETIMES ONLY ON SALES NUMBER, SOMETIMES ON NEGATIVE EPS/SALES NUMBERS.

MOST SUCCESSFUL EP HAPPENS ON TRIPLE DIGIT EPS AND 20%+ SALES . IN INDIAN MARKET IN MOST OF
THE CASES STOCK DOESN'T BREAKOUT ON EARNINGS .BUT THEY GIVES BREAKOUT AFTER FEW DAYS ON
VERY HIGH VOLUME . SO TRACK GOOD EARNINGS, DON'T TRACK ONLY GAP UP .

IN BEAR MARKET EP GIVES YOU VERY STRONG EDGE .BECAUSE HALF OF THE STOCKS START THEIR MOVE
FROM STRONG EARNINGS RELEASE .IN 2022 QULLAMAGGIE ONLY TRADE EP . IN BEAR MARKET EP
SETUP INCREASE YOUR WINRATE .BECAUSE SIMPLE BREAKOUT SETUPS HAS LOW SUCCESS RATE IN
BEAR MARKET .

MOST POWERFUL EP START WITH GAP UP


BELOW ARE THE SOME EXAMPLES :
#DENORA 84% IN 17DAYS 2015 BEAR MARKET EP
EPS 106% SALES 69%
#SUDARSCEM 237% IN 60DAYS
EPS 521% SALES 16%
#TINPLATE 109% IN 33DAYS BREAKOUT AFTER DAYS OF EARNINGS RELEASE
EPS 611% SALES 50%
BREAKOUT EP
#VINYLINDIA 160% IN 18DAYS
EPS 74% SALES 108%

NEWS EP HAS SAME CONCEPTS REACTION MATTERS ON THE NEWS


MOST FAVOURABLE NEWS FOR STOCKS
ORDERS
IN PHARMA DRUGS APPROVAL
NEW PRODUCT /NEW STORY
BELOW ARE THE SOME EXAMPLES:
#HAPPSTMNDS 339% IN 106DAYS NEWS BREAKOUT EP
#OLECTRA 171% IN 86DAYS
#GENUSPOWER 160% IN 48DAYS
#FUNDAMENTALS IF YOU ONLY TRADE SETUPS AND DON'T LOOK AT FUNDAMENTALS
EPS/SALES/THEME. AFTER STUDYING LOTS OF BIG WINNERS I'M TELLING YOU FUNDAMENTALS
MATTERS ,NOT TALKING ABOUT BALANCESHEET BUT EPS/SALES/THEMES ARE VERY IMPORTANT FOR
BIG WINNING STOCKS.
BECAUSE STOCKS NEED FUEL FOR TO GO UP .
ONLY 8 OUT OF 125 STOCKS HAS NO EARNINGS/NEWS/THEME AND 5 OF THEM ARE IPO.
IF YOU WANT TO TRADE BEST OF BEST GO WITH THEME.

#EPS/SALES
IF YOU FOLLOWING O'NEIL CONCEPT FOR ANALYZING EPS /SALES AND LOOKING AT LAST 1/3YEAR DATA
3DIGIT EPS /SALES NUMBERS AND THAN BUYING STOCKS ,SORRY BRO BUT YOU ARE WASTING YOUR
TIME . IN INDIAN MARKET THIS CONCEPT DOESN'T WORKS.

NOW MARKETS ARE FAST.


LAST 2QTR ARE IMPORTANT , AND MOST RECENT QTR. ARE VERY IMPORTANT , BECAUSE HALF OF THE
STOCKS STARTED THEIR MOVE FROM EARNINGS.
SO ONLY LOOK FOR 3DIGIT EPS/SALES?
NO ONLY 14 OUT OF 125STOCKS HAS 3DIGIT EPS/SALES NUMBERS.

SO WHAT'S THE EXACT NUMBERS? THERE IS NO EXACT NUMBER SOMETIMES STOCKS GROWING WITH
DOUBLE DIGIT EPS/SALES.
BUT MOST OF STOCKS HAS DOUBLE DIGIT EPS/SALES NUMBER IN LAST 2 QTR AND IN THE MOST RECENT
QTR EPS 100%+ SALES 20%+

IF WE LOOK AT LAST 3QTR ? ANS. IS


NO ONLY 5 OUT OF 125 STOCKS HAS DOUBLE DIGIT EPS/SALES
CONCLUSION: LOOK AT LAST 2QTR WITH DOUBLE DIGIT GROWTH AND IN MOST RECENT 3DIGIT
EPS/SALES BECAUSE BIG MOVES START FROM THERE
SOME EXAMPLES:
#NITINSPIN 227%IN 64DAYS
#ANGELONE 340%IN 112DAYS
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Common questions

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The concepts of Earnings EP (Earnings Event Peak) and News EP (News Event Peak) emphasize significant volume and price moves following news or earnings releases. In the Indian market, although both can initiate upward momentum, adjustments are necessary. Contrary to US practices, where immediate purchases upon gap-ups are common due to no circuit limits, in India, it is usually more effective to track and wait a few days post-earnings release before a breakout, often on very high volume. Tracking strong earnings and subsequent market reaction, rather than immediate gap-ups, proves beneficial .

According to the document sources, balancing technical analysis with fundamental analysis is key to identifying big winning stocks. Technical setups like breakouts at ATH (All-Time High) or within 25% of a 52-week high provide entry points, but these should be backed by strong fundamentals such as positive EPS and sales growth. Additionally, monitoring market reactions to earnings and news helps validate these setups. The integration of news and earnings events with volume signals helps enhance decision-making, increasing the win rate especially when solely relying on technical patterns is less effective .

Focusing on recent quarter sales and EPS growth is increasingly important in the current market environment due to the fast pace and volatility which render long-term historical performance less relevant. Stocks showing robust performance in recent quarters provide clearer indications of ongoing momentum and underlying financial health. The findings indicate that many substantial stock moves originate from these recent quarters, with significant EPS and sales growth, as evidenced by only a small fraction of stocks displaying consistent three-year EPS/Sales figures. This focus allows traders to align with stocks that are currently driving market performance, increasing the likelihood of capturing future gains .

The concept of ATH (All-Time High) stocks tends to miss a significant portion of potential big winners because only 25 out of 125 stocks were at ATHs during their breakout. This suggests that exclusively focusing on ATH stocks may result in missing out on other stocks that break out and deliver substantial gains without reaching ATH before the breakout. Therefore, focusing beyond ATH and considering stocks nearing their 52-week highs can uncover numerous opportunities missed if restricted solely to ATH criteria .

The 52-week high factor was identified as a critical indicator where a stock needs to be within 25% of its 52-week high at the time of breaking out. The study revealed that 122 out of 125 analyzed stocks were within this 25% range during their breakout period. This finding suggests that stocks closer to their 52-week high are more likely to deliver significant returns upon breaking out, making the 52-week high scan a potent tool for identifying potential winners .

In bear markets, traditional breakout setups generally exhibit lower success rates; however, using Earnings Event Peaks (EPs) significantly increases the likelihood of a successful stock breakout. In a bear market, the reaction to earnings, particularly those with positive EPS and potential sales changes, creates powerful trading opportunities. Since 60 out of 125 stocks started their momentum from earnings EPs, incorporating a focus on earnings events rather than just technical breakouts allows traders to exploit strong earnings releases for increased success in bear market conditions .

Relying solely on EPS/Sales growth for stock trading in the Indian market is misleading, as the study found that focusing on three-digit EPS/Sales over one to three years, a common tactic, may not be effective. Market conditions have accelerated, making the last two quarters and especially the most recent quarter critical for analysis. Notably, only 14 out of 125 stocks had three-digit EPS/Sales, but most successful stocks exhibited double-digit growth in the last two quarters and three-digit EPS/Sales in the most recent quarter. This trend highlights the importance of timely, robust fundamentals over long-term historical data .

Big winning stocks in the Indian market frequently exhibit characteristics such as HV1 (High Volume 1), HVE (High Volume Earnings), and HVIPO (High Volume Initial Public Offerings). These characteristics are evident in 67 out of 125 stocks, according to the study. Moreover, many stocks tend to exhibit these traits after earnings releases or significant news events. The characteristics are particularly prominent in bear markets when combined with news or earnings, implying a potential increase in win rate compared to traditional breakout setups .

For trading IPOs, aligning with identified characteristics of big winning stocks involves focusing on high volume and significant news events around the IPO release. Although only a few stocks out of the 125 lacked earnings, news, or theme, IPOs that demonstrate strong thematic narratives or news-driven catalysts can be potential winners. Attention to early earnings disclosures and market reactions will help confirm the potential for long-term success. Adapting the Earnings and News EP tactics to IPOs by monitoring volume surges and significant event triggers can strategically position IPOs for breakout potential .

The empirical evidence presented in the sources indicates that very high volume following earnings releases often precedes significant stock breakouts. For instance, stocks such as #Tinplate experienced a 109% increase within 33 days post their earnings release, with the breakout occurring on high volume rather than immediately upon announcement. Similarly, other examples such as #VinylIndia and #HappstMnds demonstrate substantial gains tied directly to the reaction to earnings as manifested in trading volume, highlighting the importance of very high volume as an indicator of a true breakout instead of preemptive gap-ups .

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F68Db7YaMAAjibQ.jpg)A LONG THREAD 
#BiggestWinnersOfIndia DEEP DIVE ON 125STOCKS WHICH ARE UP 1
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F68FyqlaEAA-BiD.jpg)STOCK BREAKOUT FROM LONG BASE AND GAIN MOMENTUM ON HVE
 
#ATH STOCKS IF YOU
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F68ZwQ2aAAAMmXC.png) (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F68ZKqEaAAAejn3.jpg) 
 
-52WK HIGH The concep
#EP MOST POWERFUL CONCEPT INTRODUCED BY @PradeepBonde BUT I LEARNED FROM THIS 
@Qullamaggie VIDEOS . TWO TYPES OF EP 
1 EARNI
 (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F68-OxDbgAA37Y0.jpg) (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F689M61bsAAkw8X.jpg)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F69B8IXbAAAzp-e.jpg) (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F68-9qWagAA8O_u.jpg) 
BREAKOUT EP 
#VINYLINDI
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F69KgwcbwAAEhXr.jpg)IN PHARMA DRUGS APPROVAL 
NEW PRODUCT /NEW STORY 
BELOW ARE THE SOME EXAMPL
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F69LTkaaIAEBhf-.png) (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F69LDY8aIAAjArf.png) 
 
#FUNDAMENTALS IF YOU
BECAUSE STOCKS NEED FUEL FOR TO GO UP . 
ONLY 8 OUT OF 125 STOCKS HAS NO EARNINGS/NEWS/THEME AND 5 OF THEM ARE IPO. 
IF YOU W
 (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F69Y_ALaYAEHLJQ.jpg) (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F69YZtfaQAAl4Xs.jpg)

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