+2 01033781654

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHS (9709)

1. Representation of Data
1.1. Types of Data

Advantage: easily interpreted and comparisons can easily

be made.

1.4. Histograms
1.2. Stem-and-Leaf Diagrams
A bar chart which represents continuous data
Bars have no space between them
Used to represent data in its original form.
Area of each bar is proportional to frequency
Each piece of data split into 2 parts; stem & leaf.
Leaf can only by 1 digit and should be written in F requency = F requency Density × Class Width
ascending order
Always include a key on your diagram. For open ended class width, double the size of previous
class width and use this
If range ‘0 − 9’ then class width is ‘−0.5 ≤ x ≤ 9.5’

1.5. Cumulative Frequency Graphs

Upper quartile = 75
Lower quartile = 25

Interquartile Range = U pper Quartile − Lower Quart

When nding median & quartiles, draw in vertical and
horizontal dashed lines.
Join points together with straight lines unless asked to
draw a cumulative frequency curve

1.6. Skewness
Advantage: contains accuracy of original data
Symmetrical: Median line lies in the middle of the box (i.e.
1.3. Box-and-Whisker Plots UQ – median = median – LQ)
Positively skewed: median line lies closer to LQ than UQ
Five gure summary: (i.e. UQ – median > median – LQ)
Lowest and highest values Negatively skewed: median line lies closer to UQ than to
Lower and upper quartiles the LQ (i.e. UQ – median < median – LQ)
Median
Mean & standard deviation most useful when data
roughly symmetrical & contains no outliers
Median and interquartile range typically used if data
skewed or if there are outliers.

2. Measure of Location

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHS (9709)

Disadvantage: a ected by extreme values

2.1. Mode
If data is grouped – use mid-point of group as x
Most common or most popular data value Coded mean: if being used to calculate standard
deviation, can be used as is else:
Only average that can be used for qualitative data
Not suitable if the data values are very varied ∑ (x − a)
Modal class: class with highest frequency density x= +a
n

2.2. Median
3. Measure of Spread
Middle value when data ordered
1 th
If n odd, median = 2 (n + 1) value 3.1. Standard Deviation
1
If n even, median = 2 nth value
Not a ected be extreme values Deviation from the mean is the di erence from a value
from the mean value
The standard deviation is the average of all of these
Estimating Median from Grouped Frequency Table: deviations
x Frequency f Cumulative Frequency If coded mean and sums given, use as it is, standard
10 − 20 4 4 deviation not altered
20 − 25 8 12
25 − 35 5 17 3.2. Variance of Discrete Data
35 − 50 3 20 1
∑ (xi − x)2
n
Solution:
Use cumulative frequency to nd the middle value i.e. or

1
20 ÷ 2 = 10 ∑ x2i − x2
n
∴ you are nding the 10th value Standard deviation is the square root of that
The 10th value lies between 20 and 25
3.3. Variance in Frequency Table
∑ (xi −x)2 fi ∑ xi 2 fi
∑ fi or ∑ fi − x2
{W04-P06} Question 4:
The ages, x years, of 18 people attending an evening class
are summarised by the following totals:
(12 − 4) : (25 − 20) ∑ x = 745, ∑ x2 = 33 951
i. Calculate the mean and standard deviation of the ages of
(12 − 10) : (25 − M edian) this group of people.
12 − 10 ii. One person leaves group and mean age of the remaining
25 − M edian = × (25 − 20) 17 people is exactly 41 years. Find age of the person who left
12 − 4
and standard deviation of the ages of the remaining 17
M edian = 23.75 people.
Solution:
2.3. Mean Part (i):

∑ x2 ∑x
Sum of data divided by number of values σ= − x2 x=
n n
∑ xi
x= σ = 13.2 x = 41.4
n
or Part (ii):
The total age of the 18 people
∑ xi fi
x= ∑ x = 745
∑ fi
Important as it uses all the data values Find the total age of the 17 people

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHS (9709)

∑ x = 41 × 17 = 697 The die is thrown thrice. Find the probability that the result is
1 followed by 5 followed by any even number.
Subtract the two to get the age Solution:
745 − 697 = 48 years Probability of getting a 1
Calculating the new standard deviation
Find the ∑ x2 of the 17 people
1 − 0.75 = 0.25

5 numbers ∴ 0.25 ÷ 5 = 0.05

∑ x2 = 33 951 − 482 = 31 647
Probability of getting a 5 = 0.75
Probability of getting an even number; can be 2, 4 or 6 ∴
Find the standard deviation
0.05 × 3 = 0.15
31 647 2
σ= − (41) = 13.4
17 Total probability
{S13-P62} Question 2: 0.05 × 0.75 × 0.15 = 0.00563
A summary of the speeds, x kilometres per hour, of 22 cars
passing a certain point gave the following information:
2 4.2. Mutually Exclusive Events
=∑ (x − 50) = 81.4 and ∑ (x − 50) = 671.0
Find variance of speeds and hence nd the value of ∑ x2
Solution:
Finding the variance using coded mean
2
Variance = 671.0 81.4
22 − ( 22 ) = 16.81
Find the actual sum

∑ x = 81.4 + (22 × 50) = 1181.4

Put this back into variance formula

2
∑ x2 1181.4
16.81 = −( )
ayyy n 22
2 events which have no common outcomes or can’t
∴ ∑ x2 = 2900.5 × 22 happen at the same time.
Examples of MEEs:
∑ x2 = 63811 Looking Left & Looking Right.
Coin toss: Heads & Tails.
Cards: Kings & Aces.
4. Probability Examples of not MEEs:
Cards: Kings and Hearts. (we have Kings of Hearts)
Students: People who study French and Spanish
4.1. Basic Rules (some can study both)
Rules of MEEs:
All probabilities lie between 0 and 1
P (A) = The probability of event A P (A and B) = 0
P (A ) = 1 − P (A) = The probability of not A
′

In other words, the probability of both events happening is 0,

To simplify a question, represent info in tree diagram: because they can’t occur at the same time.

P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B)
In other words, the probability of A or B happening, is just
their individual probabilities being added together. Example:
P(Get King AND Queen) = 0
P(Get King OR Queen) = 1/13 + 1/13

Rules of Not MEEs:

P (A and B) =
0
{S08-P06} Question 7:
A die is biased so that the probability of throwing a 5 is 0.75 Because of events can happen at the same time, so
and probabilities of throwing a 1, 2, 3, 4 or 6 are all equal. probability of both events happening is not 0.

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHS (9709)

P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B ) − P (A and B) This is a conditional probability question, and we have to look

for P (Attends ∣ Chosen).
When adding P(A) & P(B), we counted the “middle part” twice,
so we must subtract it. P (Attends and Chosen)
P (Attends∣Chosen) =
Example: P (Chosen)
P(Get Kings or Hearts) = 4/52 + 13/52 – 1/52
1/52 comes from the king of hearts
0.5
P (Attends∣Chosen) = = 0.625
0.8
4.3. Conditional Probability
Old Question Question 7:
Calculation of probability of one event given that another, Events A and B are such that P (A) = 0.3, P (B ) = 0.8
connected event, had occurred. and P (A and B) = 0.4. State, giving a reason in each case,
Conditional Probability formula: whether A and B are

P (A and B) 1. Independent
P (B ∣A) =
P (A) 2. mutually exclusive

Or, in another form: Solution:

Part (i)
P (A and B ) = P (A) P (B ∣A) A and B are not mutually exclusive because:
"Probability of event A and event B equals the probability of P (A and B) does not equal 0
event A times the probability of event B given event A has Part (ii)
occurred" A and B are not independent because:
Example: P (A) × P (B ) does not equal 0.4
Instead of using P (A and B) = 0 or P (A and B) =
4 3
P (Get 2 kings) = × P (A) × P (B ) as a formula, we can also use it as a test to
52 51 see if such events satisfy the conditions to be a Mutually
Both events are “Get a king” but since one king has been Exclusive Event or Independent Event.
picked up, the next probability has changed. In other words,
3 soggy
51 is P (Get a king ∣ Get a king), the probability that you
{S11-P63} Question 4:
get a king given that you’ve already gotten one. Tim throws a fair die twice and notes the number on each
throw. Events A, B, C are de ned as follows.
{S07-P06} Question 2: A: the number on the second throw is 5
Jamie is equally likely to attend or not to attend a training B: the sum of the numbers is 6
session before a football match. If he attends, he is certain to C: the product of the numbers is even
be chosen for the team which plays in the match. If he does By calculation nd which pairs, if any, of the events A, B and
not attend, there is a probability of 0.6 that he is chosen for C are independent.
the team. Solution:
Probability of Event A = P(Any Number) × P(5)
1. Find probability that Jamie is chosen for team.
2. Find the probability that Jamie attended the training
1 1
∴ P (A) = 1 × =
session, given that he was chosen for the team 6 6
Finding the probability of Event B
Solution:
Number of ways of getting a sum of 6:
Part (i)
5 and 1 1 and 5 4 and 2 2 and 4 3 and 3
Probability attends training and chosen
1 1 5
0.5 × 1 = 0.5 ∴ P (B ) = ( × )×5=
6 6 36
Probability does not attend and chose
Finding the probability of Event C
0.5 × 0.6 = 0.3
One minus method; you get an odd only when odd multiplies
Total probability
by another odd number:
P (Chosen) = 0.3 + 0.5 = 0.8 3 3
1 − P (C ) = ×
Since we are looking for P (Chosen), we have to nd every 6 6
possible way (every possible probability) that Jamie is chosen, 1 − P (C ) represents the probability of getting an odd when
then sum them up. doing the product of the two numbers, which can only occur
Part (ii) when an odd number is multiplied by another odd number

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 E_
CAIE AS LEVEL MATHS (9709)

which is 36 × 36 . This method is much easier because if one (Number of Letters)!

does a direct method, they will have to count Even × Even (Repeated Letter)!
and Even × Odd.
If more than one letter repeated, multiply the factorial of the
Making P (C ) the subject gives us:
repeated in the denominator
3 Total arrangements when two people be together:
∴ P (C ) =
4
Consider the two people as one unit
For an independent event, P (A and B) = P (A) × P (B)
Example:
1 In a group of 10, if A and B have to sit next to each other,
P (A and B) = P (1 and 5) =
36 how many arrangements are there?
Solution:
=
 P (A) × P (B)
3 (9!) × (2!)
P (A and C) = P [(2, 5) + (4, 5) + (6, 5)] =
36 2! is necessary because A and B can swap places
=
 P (A) × P (C) If question asks for two people not to be next to each
2 other, simply nd total arrangements (10!) and subtract
P (B and C) = P [(2, 4) + (4, 2)] = the impossible i.e. (9!) × (2!)
36
=
 P (B) × P (C) Total arrangements when items cannot be together:
Example:
∴ none are independent. In how many ways can the letters in the word SUCCESS be
As said from the previous worked question, we use the arranged if no two S’s are next to one another?
equation P (A and B) = P (A) × P (B) not as a formula Solution:
but as a test to see whether two events are independent or
not.

4.4. Independent Events

Events that are not connected to each other in any way, S has 5 di erent places in can be placed into.
or the next event does not rely from the previous event.
From previous note, we must divide by repeated letters
Examples of Independent events: No. of Arrangements = 4! 2! ×
5×4×3 = 120
3!
Coin tosses
Dice rolling 5.2. Combination
Examples of not Independent events:
Picking a ball from a bag (The next probability will The number of ways of selecting r objects from n unlike
increase due to a decrease in the number of balls in objects is:
the bag)
Multiplication Law for IEs: n n!
Cr =
r! (n − r)!
P (A and B) = P (A) × P (B)
Order does not matter
In other words, the probability that events A and B occur is
just by multiplying them. 5.3. Permutations

5. Permutations and The number of ordered arrangements of r objects taken

from n unlike objects is:
Combinations n n!
Pr =
(n − r)!
5.1. Factorial Order matters

The number of ways of arranging n unlike objects in a

line is n! 6. Probability Distribution
Total arrangements for a word with repeated letters:

Igor
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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHS (9709)

The probability distribution of a discrete random variable and remainder choose Music. Of the girls, 30choose Games,
is a listing of the possible values of the variable and the 55 choose Drama and remainder choose Music. 5 drama
corresponding probabilities students are chosen. Find the probability that at least 1 of
Total of all probability always equals 1 them is a boy.
Can calculate unknowns in a probability distribution by Solution:
summing them to equal 1 First, we calculate the probability of selecting a boy who is a
drama student; a conditional probability:

{S05-P06} Question 3: P (Boy∣Drama)

A fair dice has four faces. One face is coloured pink, one is P (S ) =
P (Drama)
orange, one is green and one is black. Five such dice are
thrown and the number that fall on a green face is counted. P (S ) =
The random variable X is the number of dice that fall on a P (Boy) × P (Drama)
green face. Draw up a table for probability distribution of X, (P (Boy) × P (Drama)) + (P (Girl) × P (Drama))
giving your answers correct to 4 d.p.
0.6 × 0.1 3
Solution: P (S ) = =
This is a binomial distribution where the probability of (0.6 × 0.1) + (0.4 × 0.55) 14
success is 14 and the number of trials is 5 We can calculate the probability there is at least 1 boy
x n−x present from 5 drama students using a binomial distribution
1 3
P (X = x) = nCx ( ) ( ) 3
with 5 trials and P of success = 14
4 4 Find probability of 0 and subtract answer from 1:
The dice are rolled ve times thus the number of green faces
P (X ≥ 1) = 1 − P (X = 0)
one can get ranges from 0 to 5
Use formula to obtain probabilities e.g. P (X = 1) , 3 0 11 5
P (X ≥ 1) = 1 − 5C5 × ( ) ×( )
1 3
1 4 14 14
P (X = 1) = 5C1 ( ) ( ) = 0.3955
4 4 P (X ≥ 1) = 0.701
t
Thus, draw up a probability distribution table
8. Discrete Random Variables
8.1. Probability Distribution Tables
7. Binomial Distribution To calculate the expected value of a random variable or
its mean:
Conditions:
E (x) = μ = ∑ xi pi
Only 2 possible outcomes & are mutually exclusive
Fixed number of n trials To calculate the variance of a random variable, rst
Outcomes of each trial independent of each other calculate the expected value of a random variable
Probability of success at each trial is constant squared

E (x2 ) = ∑ (xi ) × pi
2
P (X = x) =n Cx × px × q (n−x)

Where p = probability of success Finally, to calculate the variance

q = failure = (1 − p)
σ 2 = ∑ (xi − μ) pi = ∑ x2i pi − μ2
n = number of trials 2

A binomial distribution can be written as:

X ∼ B(n, p) {W11-P63} Question 3:

A factory makes a large number of ropes with lengths either
3m or 5m. There are four times as many ropes of length 3m
{W11-P62} Question 6:
as there are ropes of length 5m. One rope is chosen at
In Luttley College; 60 of students are boys. Students can random. Find the expectation and variance of its length.
choose exactly one of Games, Drama or Music on Friday Solution:
afternoons. 75 of the boys choose Games, 10 choose Drama From information given, calculate probabilities

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHS (9709)

4 P (X = x) = p(1 − p)x−1
P (3m Rope) =
5
1 p = Probability of success
P (5m Rope) = Only for x ≥ 1 and x a positive integer
5
Mean of a Geometric Distribution:
Calculate expectation/mean
1
4 1 μ=
E (x) = ∑ xi pi = (3 × ) + (5 × ) = 3.4 p
5 5
{S20-P51} Question 1:
Calculate expectation squared The score when two fair six-sided dice are thrown is the sum
of the two numbers on the upper faces
L T 4 1
E (x2 ) = ∑ (xi ) × pi = (32 × ) + (52 × ) = 12.2
2 1
a) Show that the probability that the score is 4 is 12
5 5 The two dice are thrown repeatedly until a score of 4 is
obtained. The number of throws taken is denoted by the
Calculate the variance
random variable X .
b) Find the mean of X .
σ 2 = ∑ x2i pi − μ2 = 12.2 − (3.42 ) = 0.64
c) Find the probability that a score of 4 is rst obtained on
the 6th throw.
8.2. Binomial Distribution d) Find P (X < 8)
Solution:
X ∼ B(n, p) Part (a) To get a score of 4, there are 3 ways to do it:

To calculate the expected value of a random variable or 0+4

its mean with a binomial distribution:

E (x) = μ = np
1+3
To calculate the variance:

σ 2 = np(1 − p)
2+2

{S11-P63} Question 6:
The probability that Sue completes a Sudoku puzzle correctly So now we calculate each probability then add them up:
is 0.75. Sue attempts 14 Sudoku puzzles every month. The
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
number that she completes successfully is denoted by X . ( )( ) + ( )( ) + ( )( ) =
Find the value of X that has the highest probability. You may 6 6 6 6 6 6 12
assume that this value is one of the two values closest to the Part (b)
mean of X . This is a geometric distribution; its mean must be μ = 1
p
Solution: 1
Because p = 12
Calculate the mean of X
∴ μ = 12
E (X ) = 14 × 0.75 = 10.5
Part (c)
Successful puzzles completed has to be a whole number so
can either be 10 or 11. First obtained in the 6th throw means P (X = x), using the
formula for geometric mean:
P (10) = 14C10 × 0.7510 × 0.254 = 0.220
1 1 6−1
11 3
P (11) = 14C11 × 0.75 × 0.25 = 0.240 P (X = 6) = ( ) (1 − )
12 12
Probability with 11 is higher ∴ P (X = x) ≈ 0.0539
X = 11 Part (d)
Finding P (X < 8) means that we must sum all the
8.3. Geometric Distribution probabilities from x = 0 to x = 7. Let us use the summation
notation to make calculations much simpler
X ∼ Geo(p)

A Geometric distribution can be written as:

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHS (9709)

7
1 1 n−1 X −μ
∑ (1 − ) Z=
σ
n=1
12 12

1
7
11
n−1 9.3. Finding Probabilities
= ∑( )
12 n=1 12 Example:
For a random variable X with normal distribution
This is just a geometric series since our r is between -1 and 1,
−1 < r < 1. Let us use the formula of the sum of geometric X ∼ N (20, 42 )
series:
Solution:
N
1− rN
∑ a (r)n−1 = a 1. Find the probability of P (X ≤ 25)
n=1
1−r
Standardize the probability
Applying it:
25 − 20
7 7 Z= = 1.25
1 11 n−1
1 1 − ( 11
12 ) 4
∑( ) =
12 n=1 12 12 1 − 11
12 Search for this value in normal tables
1
Both the 12 cancels, leaving us with: Φ (1.25) = 0.8944

11 7 2. Find the probability of P (X ≥ 25)

1−( ) ≈ 0.456
12
Change from greater than to less than using:

9. The Normal Distribution P (Z ≥ a) = 1 − P (Z ≤ a)

P (X ≥ 25) = 1 − P (X ≤ 25)
Using the probability from above
stg
P (X ≥ 25) = 1 − 0.8944 = 0.1057

3. Find the probability of P (X ≤ 12)

Standardize the probability

{W13-P61} Question 1: 12 − 20
It is given that X ∼ N (30, 49), Y ∼ N (30, 16) and Z ∼ Z= = −2
4
N (50, 16). On a single diagram, with the horizontal axis
going from 0 to 70, sketch 3 curves to represent the Change from negative value to positive by:
distributions of X, Y and Z .
P (Z ≤ −a) = 1 − P (Z ≤ a)
Solution:
For X , plot center of curve at 30 and calculate σ = 49 P (Z ≤ −2) = 1 − P (Z ≤ 2)
Plot 3 × σ to the left and right i.e. 30 − 21 = 9 and 30 +
21 = 51. Follow example for the other curves. Search for 2 in the normal tables

P (Z ≤ −2) = 1 − 0.9773 = 0.0228

4. Find the probability of P (10 ≤ X ≤ 30)

Split inequality into two using:

P (a ≤ Z ≤ b) = P (Z ≤ b) − P (Z ≤ a)

P (10 ≤ X ≤ 30) = P (X ≤ 30) − P (X ≤ 10)

Standardize values
9.2. Standardizing a Normal Distribution
= P (Z ≤ 2.5) − P (Z ≤ −2.5)
To convert a statement about X ∼ N (μ, σ 2 ) to a
Convert negative value to positive
statement about N (0, 1), use the standardization equation:

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHS (9709)

= P (Z ≤ 2.5) − (1 − P (Z ≤ 2.5)) Convert the greater than sign to less than

Search for 2.5 in the normal tables P (Z > 1) = 1 − P (Z < 1)

= 0.9938 − (1 − 0.9938) = 0.9876 Find probability of 1 and nd P (Z > 1)

P (Z > 1) = 1 − 0.841 = 0.1587

9.4. Using Normal Tables Given
Probabilities Double probability as both sides taken into account

{S12-P61} Question 6:
0.1587 × 2 = 0.3174
The lengths of body feathers of a particular species of bird Multiply probability with sample
are modelled by a normal distribution. A researcher
0.3174 × 1000 = 317 birds
measures the lengths of a random sample of 600 feathers
and nds that 63 are less than 6 cm long and 155 are more
than 12 cm long.
9.5. Approximation of Binomial
i. Find estimates of the mean and standard deviation of the Distribution
lengths of body feathers of birds of this species.
ii. In a random sample of 1000 body feathers from birds of The normal distribution can be used as an approximation
this species, how many would the researcher expect to nd to the binomial distribution
with lengths more than 1 standard deviation from the mean? For a binomial to be converted to normal, then:
Solution:
Part (i): For X∼ B(n, p) where q = 1 − p:
Interpreting the question and nding probabilities: np > 5 and nq > 5
P (X < 6) = 0.105 P (X > 12) = 0.258
If conditions are met then:
For X < 6, the probability cannot be found on the tables
which means it is behind the mean and therefore we must X ∼ B (n, p) ⇔ V ∼ N (np, npq )
nd 1− and assume probability is negative

−P (X < 6) = 0.895 9.6. Continuity Correction Factor (e.g. 6)

toy
Using the standardization formula and working back from Binomial Normal
the table as we are given probability
x = 6 5.5 ≤ x ≤ 6.5
6−μ x > 6 x ≥ 6.5
= −1.253
σ x ≥ 6 x ≥ 5.5
Convert the greater than sign to less than x < 6 x ≤ 5.5
P (X > 12) = 1 − P (X < 12) x ≤ 6 x ≤ 6.5

P (X < 12) = 1 − 0.258 = 0.742 {S09-P06} Question 3:

On a certain road 20% of the vehicles are trucks, 16% are
Work back from table and use standardization formula buses and remainder are cars. A random sample of 125
vehicles is taken. Using a suitable approximation, nd the
(12 − μ)
= 0.650 probability that more than 73 are cars.
σ Solution:
Solve simultaneous equations Find the probability of cars
σ = 3.15 and μ = 9.9
Part (ii): 1 − (0.16 + 0.2) = 0.64
Greater than 1sd from μ means both sides of the graph Form a binomial distribution equation
however area symmetrical ∴ nd greater & double it
Using values calculated from (i) X ∼ B(125, 0.64)
P (X > (9.9 + 3.15) = P (X > 13.05) Check if normal approximation can be used
125 × 0.64 = 80 and 125 × (1 − 0.64) = 45
Standardize it Both values are greater than 5 so normal can be used
13.05 − 9.9
=1 X ∼ B (125, 0.64) ⇔ V ∼ N (80, 28.8)
3.15

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CAIE AS LEVEL MATHS (9709)

Apply the continuity correction As it is a negative value, we must one minus again

P (X > 73) = P (X ≥ 73.5) 1 − (1 − P (Z < −1.211) = P (Z < 1.211)

Finding the probability Using the normal tables

P (X ≥ 73.5) = 1 − P (X ≤ 73.5) P = 0.8871

Standardize it

73.5 − 80
Z= = −1.211
28.8

Best of Luck

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