Armando Pantoja
Analyst Option: Mark Rogers IG: @Rogers1906, Lead CNC Analyst
Bitcoin Halving
Forecast & Analysis
Armando Pantoja
Mark N. Rogers, CNC Analyst & Instructor
@Rogers1906
Disclaimer: The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as
legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks,
bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some
high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a
greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past
investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Page 1 of 18
Armando Pantoja
Analyst Option: Mark Rogers IG: @Rogers1906, Lead CNC Analyst
Bitcoin has a "halving" event that happens on its blockchain. During a halving, the reward given to
people who "mine" Bitcoin gets cut in half. Right now, in 2023, each block of Bitcoin successfully mined
gives the miner 6.25 bitcoins.
The next halving is going to happen in either April or May of 2024.
Bitcoin halving affects the price of Bitcoin because of how it affects the supply and demand. When fewer
new bitcoins are made, it changes the balance between how many bitcoins there are and how many
people want them. In the past, when Bitcoin halving happened, the price of Bitcoin responded positively.
But it's important to remember that what happened before might not happen again in the future.
There are a few reasons why the price of Bitcoin goes up during halving:
• Less New Bitcoins: Bitcoin halving makes fewer new bitcoins, which means there is less inflation.
When there are fewer new coins, the ones that already exist can become more valuable.
• Expectations: People who use Bitcoin often know when halving will happen. They get excited
and think the price will go up, so they start buying more. When more people want to buy
Bitcoin, the price can go up.
• What People Think: When halving happens, it makes people think that Bitcoin is valuable for a
long time. They remember that there won't be many more bitcoins made, so they want to get
some before the price goes up. This makes more people interested in Bitcoin and can make the
price go up.
• Miners and Money: Miners are important for Bitcoin because they make sure everything is safe
and correct. When halving happens, miners get fewer new bitcoins as a reward. But if the price
of Bitcoin goes up or stays the same, they can still make money. When miners make money, it
helps keep Bitcoin safe and secure.
Disclaimer: The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as
legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks,
bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some
high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a
greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past
investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Page 2 of 18
Armando Pantoja
Analyst Option: Mark Rogers IG: @Rogers1906, Lead CNC Analyst
Figure 1 - Bitcoin Halving Chart and History
A "pick and shovel play" refers to an investment strategy where investors focus on companies that
provide essential tools, products, or services to support a particular industry or trend. The term
originated during the California Gold Rush when individuals who sold mining equipment like picks and
shovels often profited more reliably than individual gold miners.
In the context of the cryptocurrency industry, a pick and shovel play would involve investing in
companies that provide infrastructure, services, or products to support the growing cryptocurrency
market, rather than directly investing in cryptocurrencies themselves. These companies can include:
1. Cryptocurrency Exchanges: Companies that operate platforms for buying, selling, and trading
cryptocurrencies. They provide the necessary infrastructure for users to transact in the crypto
market.
2. Hardware Manufacturers: Companies that produce mining equipment or hardware wallets used
for securely storing cryptocurrencies. They benefit from increased demand during bull markets
when more people are mining or investing in cryptocurrencies.
Disclaimer: The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as
legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks,
bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some
high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a
greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past
investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Page 3 of 18
Armando Pantoja
Analyst Option: Mark Rogers IG: @Rogers1906, Lead CNC Analyst
3. Payment Processors: Companies that facilitate cryptocurrency payments for merchants or offer
cryptocurrency payment solutions. As the adoption of cryptocurrencies increases, payment
processors can experience growth in their business.
4. Blockchain Technology Providers: Companies that develop and provide blockchain-based
solutions and services. They offer the underlying technology infrastructure for various
applications, such as decentralized finance (DeFi), supply chain management, and smart
contracts.
5. Bitcoin Mining Stocks: Bitcoin mining stocks tend to go up during a crypto bull run for several
reasons:
Investing in pick and shovel plays allows investors to potentially benefit from the broader growth of the
cryptocurrency industry while diversifying their exposure and reducing some of the volatility associated
with investing directly in cryptocurrencies. As with any investment, thorough research and
understanding of the companies and their fundamentals are essential before making investment
decisions.
• Correlation with Bitcoin Price: Bitcoin mining stocks are often directly tied to the price of
Bitcoin. When Bitcoin experiences a bull run and its price increases, it typically leads to higher
profits for Bitcoin miners. As a result, investors anticipate increased revenues and profitability for
mining companies, which drives up the value of their stocks.
• Increased Mining Activity and Revenue: During a bull run, increased mining activity occurs as
more people enter the market and demand for Bitcoin rises. Miners earn valuable rewards in the
form of newly minted Bitcoins for solving complex mathematical problems and verifying
transactions. Higher Bitcoin prices make these rewards more valuable, resulting in increased
revenue and improved financial performance for mining companies.
• Expanding Mining Operations: Bull markets often create favorable conditions for mining
companies to expand their operations. Higher Bitcoin prices can incentivize miners to invest in
more advanced and efficient mining equipment, expand their mining farms, or establish new
mining facilities. Such expansion plans and investments signal growth potential to investors,
which can drive up the stock prices of mining companies.
• Market Sentiment and Speculation: Cryptocurrency markets are heavily influenced by investor
sentiment and speculative behavior. During a bull run, there is often a sense of optimism and
excitement in the market, attracting more investors. This increased interest can lead to higher
demand for mining stocks as investors seek exposure to the potential profits generated by the
booming crypto market.
Disclaimer: The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as
legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks,
bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some
high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a
greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past
investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Page 4 of 18
Armando Pantoja
Analyst Option: Mark Rogers IG: @Rogers1906, Lead CNC Analyst
Mining stocks' performance is influenced by factors beyond Bitcoin's price, including operational costs,
regulations, technology, and market conditions. Thorough research and consideration of multiple factors
are essential for investment decisions.
• Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) is a US-based Bitcoin mining company known for its
commitment to renewable energy and environmental sustainability. It reached its prior high in
early 2021 during the cryptocurrency bull run.
• Riot Blockchain (RIOT) is another major player in crypto mining, focusing on Bitcoin and Bitcoin
Cash. It experienced a surge in its stock price during the 2021 market peak due to increased
cryptocurrency adoption and institutional interest.
• Bit Digital (BTBT) is a China-based Bitcoin mining company with a global presence. Like MARA
and RIOT, it saw a significant stock price surge in early 2021, reflecting the industry's growth and
recognition of digital currency potential.
Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and mining stocks can experience substantial fluctuations.
Prior highs may not be sustained, so investors should carefully assess risks. Nonetheless, the successes of
MARA, RIOT, and BTBT highlight the opportunities in the crypto mining sector.
Disclaimer: The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as
legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks,
bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some
high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a
greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past
investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Page 5 of 18
Armando Pantoja
Analyst Option: Mark Rogers IG: @Rogers1906, Lead CNC Analyst
MARA
Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. is a digital asset technology company, which engages in mining
cryptocurrencies with a focus on the blockchain ecosystem and the generation of digital assets. The
company was founded on February 23, 2010 and is headquartered in Las Vegas, NV.
November 8, 2021 MARA traded at $75.92 per share while bitcoin was $67,520.02. There are several
possible factors that caused Bitcoin (BTCUSD) to trade that high in 2021:
1. Increased institutional interest.
2. Mainstream Adoption.
3. Market Speculation and FOMO.
4. Halving Events.
It is likely the next Bitcoin halving will cause a new all time high for mining companies overall.
Let’s explore a few items to consider by 2024 when the next Bitcoin halving occurs
FACT: Most Analysts list this company as a strong buy as they are expecting the next halving to cause a
huge rally for this mining company and others in the like.
Disclaimer: The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as
legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks,
bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some
high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a
greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past
investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Page 6 of 18
Armando Pantoja
Analyst Option: Mark Rogers IG: @Rogers1906, Lead CNC Analyst
Short Term Chart Setup (1 month)
MARA began to retrace from it’s recent highs right along with bitcoin on July 14, 2023. MARA was
trading at $19.83 before the drop when Bitcoin was merely holding $31.233.00. The chart below
displays the 4 hour timeframe reflecting the change of price.
Disclaimer: The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as
legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks,
bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some
high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a
greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past
investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Page 7 of 18
Armando Pantoja
Analyst Option: Mark Rogers IG: @Rogers1906, Lead CNC Analyst
MARA is still above our 200 day exponential moving average (ema) which means there is an uptrend for
some potential swing trades within a month’s timeframe.
Disclaimer: The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as
legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks,
bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some
high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a
greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past
investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Page 8 of 18
Armando Pantoja
Analyst Option: Mark Rogers IG: @Rogers1906, Lead CNC Analyst
Figure 2 - The RSI on MARA 4 hour time frame is neither overbought or oversold. The purple line represents simple moving
average (SMA) which predicts where the yellow line is going. Short term MARA is in a downtrend based on this RSI.
Disclaimer: The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as
legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks,
bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some
high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a
greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past
investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Page 9 of 18
Armando Pantoja
Analyst Option: Mark Rogers IG: @Rogers1906, Lead CNC Analyst
The short term outlook on MARA has a very small price consolidation as a result of Bitcoin. We will see a
break out for MARA when Bitcoin breaks $32,000.00.
Scenarios to consider for MARA:
As the price action for Bitcoin pumps we can expect MARA to have the following price targets:
Bitcoin Price MARA Stock Price (Approx.)
$32,398 $20.45
$40,000 $26.34
$50,000 $31.26
$60,000 $56.26
$70,000 $83.15
$80,000 $89.05
$90,000 $96.62
$100,000 $101.46 (projected)
The price action for MARA will rely heavily on the price action of bitcoin year over year, month over
month, day over day.
Disclaimer: The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as
legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks,
bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some
high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a
greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past
investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Page 10 of 18
Armando Pantoja
Analyst Option: Mark Rogers IG: @Rogers1906, Lead CNC Analyst
RIOT
Riot Platforms, Inc. is a bitcoin mining company engaged in the provision of special cryptocurrency
mining computers. It invests in Verady, Coinsquare, and Tess. The firm operates through following
segments: Bitcoin Mining, Data Center Hosting, and Engineering. The company was founded on July 24,
2000 and is headquartered in Castle Rock, CO.
November 8, 2021 RIOT was at. $41.45 per share while bitcoin was $67,520.02. The same factors
mentioned previously on MARA are the exact same for price momentum on RIOT.
1. Increased institutional interest.
2. Mainstream Adoption.
3. Market Speculation and FOMO.
4. Halving Events.
It is likely the next Bitcoin halving will cause a new all time high for mining companies overall.
Let’s explore a few items to consider by 2024 when the next Bitcoin halving occurs
Fact: Most analysts see RIOT as a strong buy as well with the notion of the Bitcoin halving in mind.
Disclaimer: The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as
legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks,
bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some
high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a
greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past
investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Page 11 of 18
Armando Pantoja
Analyst Option: Mark Rogers IG: @Rogers1906, Lead CNC Analyst
At the time of this analysis (7/20/2023, 10:08 EST) Bitcoin is $30,138. As you can see below RIOT also
moves with Bitcoin. Therefore if you ever are curious about what is happening with the ticker, always
check Bitcoin price action.
Disclaimer: The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as
legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks,
bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some
high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a
greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past
investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Page 12 of 18
Armando Pantoja
Analyst Option: Mark Rogers IG: @Rogers1906, Lead CNC Analyst
Scenarios to consider for RIOT:
As the price action for Bitcoin pumps we can expect RIOT to have the following price targets:
Bitcoin Price RIOT Stock Price (Approx.)
$32,398 $19.60
$40,000 $22.10
$50,000 $30.32
Disclaimer: The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as
legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks,
bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some
high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a
greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past
investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Page 13 of 18
Armando Pantoja
Analyst Option: Mark Rogers IG: @Rogers1906, Lead CNC Analyst
$60,000 $45.28
$70,000 $49.78
$80,000 $78.79
$90,000 $83.63
$100,000 $95.30 (projected)
*The price action for RIOT will rely heavily on the price action of bitcoin year over year, month over
month, day over day.
Disclaimer: The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as
legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks,
bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some
high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a
greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past
investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Page 14 of 18
Armando Pantoja
Analyst Option: Mark Rogers IG: @Rogers1906, Lead CNC Analyst
XRP
Over a period of around 18 months, a reasonable target for XRP would be $15.
There are a few events that could amplify this target
1. Ripple decides to proceed with an Initial Public Offering (IPO), XRP could reach an even more
impressive price of $20.
2. More clarity on Ripple's recent legal victory. A positive resolution would provide legal and
regulatory clarity for XRP, which could act as a catalyst for further growth.
3. The bitcoin Halving: All coins tend to do well during this “hype cycle”.
Disclaimer: The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as
legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks,
bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some
high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a
greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past
investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Page 15 of 18
Armando Pantoja
Analyst Option: Mark Rogers IG: @Rogers1906, Lead CNC Analyst
Interested in learning how to do this?
Join the Chess Not Checkers group at:
[Link]
Disclaimer: The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as
legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks,
bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some
high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a
greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past
investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Page 16 of 18
Armando Pantoja
Analyst Option: Mark Rogers IG: @Rogers1906, Lead CNC Analyst
Disclaimer: The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as
legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks,
bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some
high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a
greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past
investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Page 17 of 18
Armando Pantoja
Analyst Option: Mark Rogers IG: @Rogers1906, Lead CNC Analyst
Go Follow our lead CNC Analyst:
Mark Rogers
@Rogers1906
[Link]
Disclaimer: The Content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as
legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. There are risks associated with investing in securities. Investing in stocks,
bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some
high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a
greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods. A security’s or a firm’s past
investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.
Page 18 of 18