References
CryptoCred:
[Link]
Tom Dante:
[Link]
Will Hunting:
[Link]
2
Introduction
Welcome to this Chapter 2 of the new mentorship. This is a comprehensive
guide on trading, where we'll be diving deep into the world of support and
resistance levels and how to find them. You will be trained to buy these
rational levels and not just jump in the ocean at the wrong time.
This is my best attempt at breaking down these concepts so even a new
trader can understand these. I promise to deliver the best but also, these
concepts are supposed to make you money so obviously, it's not easy. It
might not be the best tutorial out there, but it is my best.
In this tutorial, we'll be discussing the dynamic landscape of market
movements, understanding the significance of support and resistance levels,
and mastering the art of trading from level to level. We'll also be exploring
more advanced territories like deviation/false breakdown and reclaim.
We've worked hard to include figures and diagrams to illustrate these
concepts, making it easier for you to grasp and apply them in your trading
strategy. The only thing I ask from you, is that everything you learn here, you
must practice, trading level to level is all about practice and experience.
By the end of this guide, you'll have a solid understanding of how to actively
engage with the range and be prepared to execute buy or sell trades when
the price interacts with these levels in the future. You'll also be well-versed in
the concept of confluence, which is when multiple factors or indicators align
together to provide a stronger and more reliable trading signal.
Please subscribe to telegram to keep up to date with the Bitcoin Trading
Masterclass Mentorship.
Let's Begin.
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INDEX
2.1 How do markets move? 4
2.2 What is Support and and Resistance (S/R) 7
2.3 What are levels and which ones are important? 13
2.4 Trading- Level to Level 29
2.5 DEVIATION/FALSE BREAKDOWN 56
2.6 RECLAIM 58
3.1 CONCLUSION 61
4
2.1 How do markets move?
In crypto trading, the movement of markets is primarily driven by supply and
demand dynamics. The prices of cryptocurrencies are determined by the
interaction between buyers and sellers in various cryptocurrency exchanges.
Figure 2.1: Demand vs Supply
Here are some key factors that can influence market movements in crypto
trading:
I. Supply and Demand: When there is a higher demand for a specific
cryptocurrency than its available supply, the price tends to rise. Conversely, if
there is more supply than demand, the price may decline.
5
Image Legend: (S-Supply);(D-Demand);(P-Price)
Figure 2.2: Shift in supply
II. News and Events: News related to cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology,
regulations, partnerships, or significant events can affect market sentiment
and subsequently impact prices. Positive news often leads to increased
buying activity, while negative news can lead to selling pressure.
6
III. Market Sentiment: Sentiment plays a crucial role in crypto markets. If
traders and investors have positive expectations about the future of a
particular cryptocurrency or the overall market, they may be more inclined to
buy and hold, driving up prices. Conversely, negative sentiment can lead to
selling and price declines. The Fear and Greed Index is the most popular
gauge of market sentiment.
Figure 2.3: Market sentiment
IV. Technological Developments: Advancements in blockchain technology,
new features or upgrades to existing cryptocurrencies, and the introduction of
innovative projects can generate interest and impact market movements.
V. Market Manipulation: Cryptocurrency markets, like any other financial
market, can be susceptible to manipulation. Activities such as
pump-and-dump schemes, where a group artificially inflates the price of a
cryptocurrency before selling it off, can distort market movements.
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2.2 What is Support and and Resistance (S/R)
Support and resistance (S/R) are two important concepts in trading that help
us understand how the price of an asset moves.
Support is like a price level where the demand for a cryptocurrency is strong.
It's a point where many people want to buy because they believe it's a good
value. Imagine a sale at your favourite store where everyone rushes to buy
discounted items. That rush of buyers creates an upward force and prevents
the price from going down further. Support acts in a similar way—it stops the
price from falling too much, causing it to "bounce" back up.
Figure 2.4: Illustration of support and resistance
Resistance, on the other hand, is like a price level where the supply of a
cryptocurrency is high. It's a point where many people want to sell because
they think the price is getting too high or overvalued. Resistance makes it
challenging for the price to move higher.
Resistance is a price level where an uptrend is expected to pause due to a
concentration of supply (sellers). As the prices of assets rise, more sellers
8
enter the market, creating downward pressure on prices, forming a resistance
level. It's like the ceiling that prevents the price from rising any further.
Figure 2.5: Support and resistance on chart
NOTE: Support and Resistance levels can interchange roles. We will learn
about this in this tutorial.
Traders use support and resistance levels to make decisions. When the price
approaches a support level, some traders see it as a sign to buy because
they expect the price to go up from there. They believe that others will also
see the value and start buying, creating upward momentum. Conversely,
when the price nears a resistance level, some traders might consider selling
because they anticipate that others will also sell, putting downward pressure
on the price.
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Orders on the orderbook can act as support/resistance levels. The heatmap
chart attached above shows the orders or bids/asks. When price reaches
these levels, those orders can fill and cause price to reverse or bounce from
them. However, these can also be “spoofs” in the case that they are removed
or cancelled as price reaches them, trapping traders who thought they would
be strong S/R levels.
Support and resistance levels are not always exact and can be broken.
Market conditions change, and prices can surprise us. Traders use various
tools and indicators alongside support and resistance to make informed
decisions. It's like using different pieces of a puzzle to get a clearer picture.
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2.2.1 What levels can normally be support or resistance?
A. Option Expiries and Support/Resistance Levels
Option expiries can influence the underlying asset's price and create
temporary support or resistance levels. This is particularly true for assets with
a large amount of options trading, like certain stocks or currencies.
When a significant number of options contracts are set to expire at a certain
price level, it can act as a magnet for the price of the underlying asset. This is
because market participants may have an incentive to steer the price
towards these levels to minimise their losses or maximise their gains.
For example, if there are a large number of call options set to expire at a
certain price level, the sellers (writers) of these options may try to keep the
price below this level to avoid having the options exercised. This price level
can act as a temporary resistance level.
Conversely, if there are a large number of put options set to expire at a
certain price level, the sellers of these options may try to keep the price above
this level to avoid having the options exercised. This price level can act as a
temporary support level.
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B. Areas Where Excessive Buying/Selling took place:
Support or resistance exist at areas because of extra interest at these levels
for auction.
Traders perceive these levels to be an interesting level to enter the market.
There's no need to worry about using an X ray to look at these levels because
price behaviour is enough at most times, below is a Footprint chart shared to
showcase the interest the market has at these levels.
There is no difference between drawing support/resistance levels using the
price action techniques as we will learn here or using these tools to identify
them, support and resistance can be because of various reasons, these just
help us see them. They show executed orders and the number of buy and sell
orders lined up at different price levels.
These charts can help identify potential support and resistance
levels. A price level with a large number of buy orders can act as a support
level, as it represents a level where there is a strong demand for the asset.
Conversely, a price level with a large number of sell orders can act as a
resistance level, as it represents a level where there is a strong supply of the
assets.
You can see the market selling and market buying taking place in higher
quantities at these levels.
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Figure 2.6: Accumulation of orders at a specific price level.
The above image shows a large number of orders stacked at a certain price
level, this can be an area of support.
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Figure 2.7: Sell wall builds with increasing unfulfilled sell orders at a given price.
The sell wall rises in proportion to the number of unfulfilled sell orders at a given
price. A high sell wall might mean that many traders don’t think an asset will rise
above a certain price (strong resistance zone), whereas a low sell wall might
mean the asset’s price is anticipated to rise (weak resistance).
Because it generates numerous sell orders at a single price, a large sell wall
prevents bitcoin prices from rising quickly. Traders may decide to sell and limit
their losses if they notice a large or expanding sell wall because they may think
the asset price will drop.
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However, it's important to note that these support and resistance levels can
be very transient, as the order flow can change rapidly in response to
changing market conditions. Also, large orders can sometimes be placed to
mislead other traders, a practice known as "spoofing".
Figure 2.8: Spoofing
If a large number of buyers/sellers entered positions at certain levels, these
levels can then act as support/resistance. This is because traders will defend
their entry levels to stay in profit when price comes back to it, this is natural
human behaviour.
In conclusion, both option expiries and order flow charts can provide
information about potential support and resistance levels. However, like all
trading tools, they should be used in conjunction with other indicators and
analysis techniques to increase the probability of successful trades.
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2.3 What are levels and which
ones are important?
In this section, we will introduce a systematic approach to analysing charts by
identifying Levels. By mastering this skill, you can confidently mark Levels on
different charts, removing uncertainty. It's surprising that 99% of traders lack
this knowledge. Trading level by level is the key to overcoming fear and
maximising profits. Practice on various charts to become fearless and ready
for any price movement.
2.3.1 THE OBJECT TREE OPTION IN TRADINGVIEW
Note: This is not necessary for trading but it is a tool to conveniently
organise your levels and tools.
The Object Tree option in TradingView is a useful feature that allows you to
effectively manage and organise the various objects and indicators on your
chart. It provides a hierarchical view of all the objects you have added to your
chart, making it easier to navigate and modify them.
With the Object Tree, you can access and control different elements such as
trendlines, support and resistance levels, drawings, indicators, and other
graphical objects. It provides a structured overview of these objects, allowing
you to expand or collapse sections to focus on specific aspects of your
analysis.
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How to use the Object Tree
Figure 2.9: The object tree demonstration (A)
● Click on the Object View tab and it will show you all the Drawing
and indicators available on your chart.
● You can choose to hide or unhide the lines and objects you
need/don't need.
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Figure 2.10: The object tree demonstration (B)
Figure 2.11: The object tree demonstration (C)
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● To make it more organised, you can click on create folder and put all
the objects in a similar category in that folder. Eg. I have put everything
of the monthly level under one folder and hide/unhide it if need be.
Figure 2.12: The object tree demonstration (D)
2.3.2 Levels on Monthly chart
i. Start with the monthly charts: This helps us understand the bigger picture
and shows us our position in the overall scheme.
Look at the linear chart to grasp the extent of the upward trend.
Identify the monthly levels for each cycle.
Note: We'll focus on the closing and opening prices as key levels. This means
that the resistance and support for different time frames will be based on the
closing and opening prices. These are important levels based on time and
19
Might not necessarily be S/R.
On each time frame, mark four levels: the opening price, closing price, highest
price, and lowest price.
Example 1: Monthly resistance
The monthly linear chart helps us gauge the magnitude of the price
movement and determine whether any pullbacks are within the normal
range, given the overall upward trend.
Figure 2.13: Monthly level high
To better understand how to plot the monthly levels, let's take a look at the
previous cycle in the chart below..
I've marked the previous all-time high (ATH) closing price.
Notice how exactly one year later, there was a re-test of the same level,
followed by a breakout. Levels often get re-tested frequently, returning to a
point where buyers previously couldn't enter. It's important to note that after
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the breakout of this level at the end of 2020, the next candle crossed below
the level to claim liquidity.
For now, just observe the similar movement that occurred after the breakout
candle went below the breakout level to claim liquidity.
We will learn more about claiming liquidity later on.
Figure 2.14: Previous Monthly level high
Important
1. Take note of the significant price surge from the previous all-time high
(ATH). Understand that any pullback, no matter how large, is a natural
part of market dynamics and not necessarily a result of manipulation or
dumping. Just as prices can climb steeply, they can also come down
significantly. Don't assume that a pullback indicates the end of an asset
21
or asset class. The monthly linear levels will help you anticipate various
types of movements.
2. label your lines clearly to avoid confusion and maintain a clear
understanding of each level. You can do this by right-clicking on the link
and selecting "Text" to add labels. This will prevent clutter and provide a
visual representation of what each level represents. You can save this
as a template for future use.
Figure 2.15: Labelling your line (A)
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Figure 2.16: Labelling your line (B)
2.3.3 The Monthly chart
Figure 2.18: Monthly chart
The monthly chart provides important levels that are crucial for my trading
strategy and staying vigilant in managing market movements.
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I have identified the following levels:
● ATH level (All-Time High)
● Previous ATH (All-Time High)
● Yearly open for the current year
● Current monthly range
● ATH Monthly resistance
Please take note of the following:
The first level represents a re-test in the previous cycle.
Notice how we returned to re-test the yearly open at number 2.
During a market downturn, it can be beneficial to place small orders at these
levels and anticipate increased demand when re-testing the yearly open.
Whether I'm actively trading or holding positions, I closely monitor these levels
at the macro level. If Bitcoin reaches any of these levels, it should not be a
cause for fear or surprise. The purpose of recognizing these levels is to be
prepared to make trading decisions when they occur.
We will delve deeper into trading levels later, which will improve our chances
of success. Take a careful look at the chart and practice marking these levels
on your own.
2.3.5 Levels on weekly charts
Now that we have learned how to mark monthly levels, let's shift our focus to
the weekly chart.
In the chart below, you can see my previous weekly levels, and it's important
to observe how they differ from the monthly levels.
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To emphasise, when we refer to levels, we are specifically referring to the
closing and opening prices.
Figure 2.20: Levels on weekly charts
To maintain clarity in the charts, I have marked only the levels of the closing
and opening prices. We will later include the high and low levels as well.
If you observe the marked levels above, you will notice that they represent a
range where the market spent a significant amount of time, approximately a
month. As we zoom in and analyse the chart in more detail, we will gain a
better understanding of how to trade within this range.
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2.3.6 A Quick Review on Trading Ranges
Figure 2.21: Trading ranges
● Seek short opportunities at the highs and long opportunities at the lows
of the range.
● Avoid assuming a range will break until it actually does.
● Consistently applying the first two strategies will result in gains, except
for one instance where you may take a wrong trade after trading the
range successfully.
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2.3.7 The Weekly Range
Figure 2.22: The weekly range
Now, let's examine the Weekly Range.
The range displayed above is the same as the one we previously marked, but
now on a daily graph for a closer view. You can use the range tutorial graph
from the previous page to easily trade within this range.
Notice how trading becomes much simpler when we are aware of the range.
The only challenge you may encounter here is managing deviations and
false breakouts, which we will address in the price action tutorials.
Once again, it's important to assume that the range will persist indefinitely
and trade both long and short positions within it until it eventually breaks. I
hope the zoomed-in weekly levels have demonstrated how to effectively
utilise the range.
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Look at the number of trades we could have entered by just playing the
range. Of course Ranges will not occur in a straight line and a straight point.
This is what we need to deal with in future by studying liquidity grabs. Ranges
tend to repeat. A classic example of this move is illustrated in the chart
below.
Figure 2.22: Liquidity Grab
Pay attention to how the recent downward movement from the All-Time High
(ATH) has retraced back to the same range that we identified on the weekly
chart.
It is not uncommon for ranges to be retested, and for the price to return
completely within the same range.
1. This observation should help you understand that the dump was not
unexpected or something to be afraid of.
2. The dump was a result of simple price action and a rotation of price
towards the mean. Having this understanding, along with the marked
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range and the likelihood of ranges returning to their levels, should help
you navigate various market movements without fear. If a level is lost,
it's important to prepare for the next level
2.3.8 The Daily Range
Now, let's explore how we draw the levels on the daily time frame.I have
marked the price from which these levels have been [Link] establish the
levels, we have used the close and open prices.
Observe how these levels have remained relevant for an extended period,
even after the market dump. Take note of the number of times the price has
interacted with these levels.
Figure 2.23: The daily range
Going forward, let's mark the high and low levels at the same point and
observe how the future range responds to them. Take note of how, in the
29
aftermath of the dump from the All-Time High (ATH), the wicks of the price
candles closely adhered to the previous range's highs and lows.
Key points to remember:
● Mark the levels on the daily timeframe to establish a range.
● Actively engage with the range and be prepared to execute buy or sell
trades when the price interacts with these levels in the future.
● The levels are typically respected until they are not. The chart above
demonstrates how the same level continues to be respected even after
several months.
2.3.9 CONFLUENCE
Confluence refers to the occurrence of multiple factors or indicators aligning
together to provide a stronger and more reliable trading signal. It is a concept
used by traders to increase the probability of a successful trade by
combining different sources of evidence or analysis.
Figure 2.24: Confluence
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Pay attention to the graphs and observe how there is a confluence between
two different time frames, specifically the weekly and daily charts, at a similar
price range.
This area of confluence can be considered a high-probability trading zone.
Note that when trading, it's important to look for confluence between various
factors such as levels, Fibonacci retracements, exponential moving averages
(EMA), and volume profiles.
When these levels and indicators align and show confluence, it can serve as a
strong entry point for trades as these areas tend to be respected by the
market.
Figure 2.24: Important levels
Here is a graph displaying the important levels that I consider significant for
analysing opportunities and changes in market structure. These levels
represent the ranges I focus on and should be observed from a long-term
perspective.
31
If the price reaches any of these levels, it should not come as a surprise. This is
the essence of being prepared. I have provided labels for your convenience,
and I encourage you to pay attention to the yearly and monthly opens, as
they often serve as areas of high probability re-tests.
By incorporating these levels into your analysis, your perspective shifts from
wondering where the price will drop to considering "This is where it could
drop." This preparedness enables you to anticipate potential market
movements with greater clarity and reduces the element of surprise.
Tip: When trading on a specific time frame that doesn't require the inclusion
of higher time frame levels, you have the option to hide those levels to reduce
clutter. However, there is an even better approach to managing your charts
and ensuring they appear clean and organised
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2.4 Trading- Level to Level
Identifying Support/Resistance Levels.
By the end of this tutorial, you will gain a clear understanding of what levels
are and how to effectively trade them. Throughout this tutorial, I will
emphasise the significance and logic behind levels trading, highlighting its
importance over other aspects of traditional trading systems, such as chart
patterns and classical divergences.
2.4.1 What are levels?
In trading, "levels" typically refer to specific price levels on a chart that are
considered significant due to their historical significance or technical analysis.
These levels can act as support or resistance areas, where the price tends to
react or reverse.
Before delving into charting, it's essential to grasp the concept that each level
should be viewed as a zone rather than a single line. This means that levels
have a range of price action rather than being a precise horizontal line. When
using higher time frame (HTF) charts like monthly or weekly, they can be
useful for forming a bias and developing trading plans. However, executing
day trades solely based on a weekly level can be challenging due to the fact
that it represents a zone rather than an exact horizontal line. A small zone on
the weekly time frame might encompass a larger zone on the 4-hour time
frame, emphasising the importance of understanding the relative size and
significance of levels across different time frames.
2.4.2 Common types of levels in trading
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Support Levels: Support levels are price levels at which the buying interest is
strong enough to prevent the price from falling further. Traders often expect
the price to bounce back up from these levels. Support levels are usually
identified by previous lows, trendlines, moving averages, or other technical
indicators.
Resistance Levels: Resistance levels are price levels at which selling pressure
becomes significant enough to prevent the price from rising further. Traders
often expect the price to reverse or consolidate near these levels. Resistance
levels are typically identified by previous highs, trendlines, Fibonacci
retracements, or other technical indicators.
Figure 2.25: Support and Resistance
2.4.3 How to use Price Action to Draw Horizontal Lines
In our approach, we will utilise price action to draw our horizontal levels.
However, it's crucial to maintain the perspective that these levels are not just
single lines but rather areas of interest where buying or selling interest is
concentrated. By considering our levels as zones rather than mere lines, we
34
recognize the dynamic nature of price and the clustering of bids or offers
within these areas. This perspective allows for a more comprehensive
understanding of the market and aids in making informed trading decisions.
Here are few tips to consider in drawing your lines
Tip 1: Colour code your lines (Tom Dante uses this trick to avoid
labelling)
To effectively distinguish between different time frames and ensure visibility
of levels across various charts, you can utilise colour coding and line
thickness. Here's a suggested approach using colours and labelling:
Weekly Levels: Use a thick red line to represent weekly levels. These levels
should be visible on the weekly, daily, 4-hour, and hourly charts.
Daily Levels: Use a medium blue line to denote daily levels. These levels
should be visible on the daily, 4-hour, and hourly charts.
Hourly Levels: Opt for a thin green line to indicate hourly levels. These levels
should be visible on the hourly chart.
By assigning specific colours and line thicknesses, you can easily identify and
differentiate the levels based on their corresponding time frames. This helps
ensure that each level remains visible on time frames equal to or lower than
the level's timeframe. You can also right-click on the lines and label them
accordingly to provide additional clarity.
35
Figure 2.26: Color coding you lines
Tip 2- Use Object Tree
As discussed in the above sections.
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Figure 2.27: Object Tree in TradingView
2.4.4 How to Determine the Importance of a Level
When assessing the importance of a horizontal level in trading, Dante, an
experienced trader, provides a framework that includes the following
considerations:
● Number of Times Price Interacted: The more times price has touched
or reacted to a level in the past, the higher its significance. Levels that
have been respected multiple times indicate strong market interest and
are likely to be important.
● Recent Price Interaction: Levels that have been tested or respected
more recently carry more weight. Recent price action provides a more
relevant indication of market sentiment and can help determine the
level's current importance.
37
● Timeframe Alignment: Confirm if the level aligns with other timeframes.
Levels that are visible and respected across multiple timeframes carry
greater significance as they have a broader impact on market
participants.
● Magnitude of Price Rejection: Consider the strength of price rejections
or bounces at a level. Sharp and significant reversals indicate a
stronger level compared to minor or shallow reactions.
● Higher Timeframe Confirmation: Seek confirmation of the level's
importance from higher timeframes, such as weekly or monthly charts.
If a level is respected on these higher timeframes, it reinforces its
significance.
● Volume and Liquidity: Assess the volume and liquidity at the level.
Higher trading volume and liquidity near a level suggest increased
market participation and validate its importance.
● Role Reversal: Levels that have switched from acting as support to
resistance, or vice versa, tend to be more influential. These role
reversals indicate a shift in market dynamics and attract attention from
traders
2.4.5 How I would draw the levels on a weekly chart
38
Figure 2.28: Levels on weekly chart
Figure 2.3: An illustration of how I would draw the levels on a weekly chart
First, I will zoom out to see the individual candles and wicks clearly but include
as many candles as possible on the chart.
The arrows show you my reasons for marking it. Before you start to get
overwhelmed with all the levels, just mark all of them out first. Note the points
which make a level important.
Which levels should you keep on your chart after this process?
You should prioritise the levels that present trading opportunities aligned with
your trading strategy. These are the levels that you want to actively trade off.
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2.4.6 Which levels do you mark out?
Figure 2.29: Levels to mark
Use the importance roadmap as a guide to identify straightforward support
and resistance points on the chart. Look for significant levels that hold
importance and act as barriers to price movement.
On the same chart above, it is recommended to mark out daily levels in
addition to the previously identified levels. Observing the daily chart can
provide insights into how it respects the weekly levels marked on the first
chart. This confirmation is a positive sign that your level marking is accurate.
Remember to maintain the practice of looking from right to left when marking
your levels, as this helps in identifying key areas of support and resistance.
How can you further reason the drawing and assess the importance of
the levels on a chart when there can be 100 levels drawn?
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Figure 2.30: Assessing the importance of the levels on a chart
2.4.7 How to refine your levels for trading
Refining trading levels requires more than just drawing lines on a chart. Here's
is a process of level tuning using recent price action:
1. Pick Final Level: Choose a final level within the range that has the most
touches, aiming for a level close to the middle. The exact midpoint is not
crucial.
2. View S/R as Zones: Consider support and resistance (S/R) levels as
zones rather than precise lines. S/R flips represent orders being placed
and executed. Think of them as areas where price fluctuates.
3. Exceptions to the Mean: Avoid using the mean of the range when there
is a violent breakout. If there is a strong breakout above a range high,
expect a slight dip to retest the highs before continuing higher. The
same concept applies to range breakdowns.
Refining levels involves considering price action, order flow, and
understanding that S/R levels are zones rather than perfect lines. Adapt to
41
different scenarios and continuously refine your approach based on market
conditions.
Figure 2.31: Refining your levels (A)
Figure 2.32: Refining your levels (B)
42
Figure 2.33: Refining your levels (C)
2.4.8 Seizing Trading Opportunities with Precision
Once you have honed your levels, it's crucial to understand that relying solely
on knowledge of price action is insufficient for consistent profitability in
trading. To achieve that goal, you must establish a strategy or system that
you strictly adhere to, regardless of your emotions. Backtesting your strategy
and monitoring your success rate over time are also vital steps. It's worth
remembering that even with a 50% success rate, taking trades with 2:1
risk-reward setups can make you a trading legend.
Now, let's delve into the trading scenarios using the refined levels:
● 3 touch level: This scenario involves a level that has been tested and
respected by the price three times. Traders typically expect a reaction or
potential reversal when the price approaches this level for the fourth time.
Look for trading opportunities based on reversal strategies. For instance, if
the price fails to break above the level, you may consider taking a short
position. Conversely, if the price fails to break below the level, a long
43
position could be considered. Strengthen the validity of your trades by
incorporating confirmation indicators or analysing candlestick patterns.
Figure 2.34: 3 touch level
● 2 touch level: In this scenario, the price has tested and respected a
specific level twice. Similar to the previous scenario, traders anticipate a
reaction or potential reversal when the price approaches this level for the
third time. Apply reversal strategies, such as seeking additional
confirmation signals or combining the level with other technical indicators
or patterns, to increase the probability of successful trades.
Figure 2.35: 2 touch level
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● 1 touch level: This scenario involves a level that has been tested and
respected by the price only once. While a single touch level may hold less
significance, it can still present trading opportunities. Consider potential
breakouts or bounces from the level. For breakouts, take a long position if
the price breaks above the level, or a short position if it breaks below. As for
bounces, take a long position when the price retraces back to the level
after a temporary decline, or a short position when the price retraces back
to the level after a temporary rise.
Figure 2.36: 1 touch level
2.4.9 Targets and stop/trade management
It is important to consider the following points regarding levels, trade
management, and stop placement:
Multiple Time Frames (TFs) and Level Drawing: Analyse different TFs and
draw levels accordingly. Fibonacci retracements should be drawn from daily
swing highs to lows (and vice versa), rather than using smaller TFs. However,
the execution TF, where you take your trades, should be predetermined (e.g., 1
hour) and provide a clear trade idea.
45
Selective Trading and Patience: While every level you draw will likely trigger a
price reaction, it is crucial to exercise patience and avoid trading all of them.
Focus on trading levels where you believe you can capture significant price
swings based on chart analysis.
Trade Entry and Categorization: Trade entries can occur at any level.
Categorise these entries into three sections, each with its own requirements
for entering a position.
Figure 2.37: Trade entry
● Stop Placement: Set your stop loss at any level above the weekly level. If
the 4-hour level above is flipped to support, indicating an invalidation of
your trade idea for a stop-fakeout or rejection at the weekly level, it is
necessary to exit the trade. Adjust the stop loss based on the evolving
market conditions and level flips.
● Profit Target: Aim for the first trouble area (FTA) as your target, which
could be the lower 4-hour level. The final target may be the blue daily
level. If the price finds support at the target level, consider taking profits,
but keep a portion of the position running for potential bounces.
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● Trading the Levels: There is no specific requirement for price to reach
your level. If price rallies into a level where you intend to short, take the
trade. A violent price rally into your level suggests that more
participants are trapped in the process.
● Practice and Conviction: Profitable trading with levels requires practice
in drawing accurate levels and developing conviction in your trades. Do
not be deterred if price strongly reacts to your level; trading the trend
on lower TFs does not hold significance in this approach.
● Comprehensive Level Marking: It is recommended to mark out all the
levels, even if the chart becomes crowded. Knowing all the trouble spots
in advance will help you manage your trades effectively.
● Adjusting Stop Loss and Managing Longs: Once price surpasses an
important level, you can move your stop loss up to below that level. If a
new support forms, it is preferable for price to hold that support before
reaching the target. This approach allows for careful management of
long positions.
4.4.10 Most important factor when trading levels
The most important factor when trading levels is trade execution strategy.
How you enter trades and manage orders at key levels can significantly
impact your trading success. There are two key approaches to consider:
i. Placing Limit Orders at Role Reversal Levels: When a level changes its role
from support to resistance or vice versa, placing limit orders can be effective.
By entering the trade at the level itself, you aim to catch potential price
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reversals. This approach requires anticipating the role reversal and setting
appropriate limit orders in advance.
Figure 2.38: Placing Limit Orders at Role Reversal Levels
ii. Waiting for Stop Hunt or Stop-Fakeout: When trading levels where you
expect a similar role as before, waiting for an SFP can be a valuable strategy.
An SFP occurs when price briefly moves beyond the level to trigger stop
orders, only to reverse and move in the opposite direction. By waiting for the
SFP, you can capitalise on the trapped traders' orders and enter a trade in the
direction you anticipate.
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The Swing Failure Pattern
To really grasp the Swing Failure Pattern, it's important to first understand the
concept of liquidity. It sets the foundation for comprehending how this pattern
works and why it's significant in trading
Figure 2.40: The concept of liquidity
When we talk about a liquid asset or coin, we're referring to its ability to be
bought or sold quickly without causing significant price fluctuations. In other
words, large buy or sell orders can't be executed all at once without impacting
the price. Liquidity is determined by the number of trades happening for a
particular asset and the amount being exchanged between buyers and
sellers.
How the interplay between stop losses and breakout trading can
contribute to market liquidity and the fulfilment of large buy
orders.
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In order to successfully fill large buy orders at a favourable price, it's
important to maintain a balanced ratio, as close to 1:1 as possible, between
buy and sell orders in the market. Also, it's worth noting that stop losses
placed on long positions actually act as sell orders, while stop losses for short
positions act as buy orders.
Let's consider a bullish example to further illustrate this concept.
Figure 2.41: interplay between stop losses and breakout trading
When the price of an asset breaks through a resistance level and establishes
it as a new support level, many traders enter long positions, anticipating
further price increases. These traders typically place their stop losses just
below the newly established support level. The reason for this is that if the
price were to break below that support level, it would indicate a shift towards
bearishness.
At the same time, there are breakout traders who take short positions as soon
as the support level is breached, even before the candle closes. These traders
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aim to benefit from the expected downward momentum resulting from the
support level being broken.
The stop loss orders placed on long positions and the short orders from
breakout traders act as liquidity injections into the market. These orders help
to meet the demand of large buyers who are looking to purchase a
significant amount of the asset. The selling pressure from stop losses and
short orders is absorbed by these large buy orders. As a result, the price tends
to recover and the candle eventually closes above the support level, creating
a "sweep" of the level.
● Key highs/lows
Key highs/lows are significant price points where a trend reverses or enters a
consolidation phase. For example, during an uptrend, if the price forms a high
and starts ranging for a month, that high becomes a key level. Traders use
these points to analyse trends, make trading decisions, and anticipate
potential reversals or breakouts.
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Figure 2.42: In an uptrend, the price reaches a high point before transitioning
into a month-long consolidation phase
Figure 2.43: In an inverted pattern, the key low acts as the starting point for a
ranging structure.
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2.4.11How to Spot the Pattern
Identifying the Swing Failure Pattern is a straightforward process. By
understanding and implementing the following steps for both bearish and
bullish examples, you can successfully recognize the pattern and utilise it to
make well-informed trading decisions.
Example 1: Bearish
Figure 2.44: Spotting the pattern in bearish chart
i. The price forms a key high or resistance level.
ii. A subsequent candle attempts to break above the high but fails, closing
below it.
iii. Confirmation of the pattern occurs after the candle closes, preferably
waiting for the 'sweep' candle before taking a short position.
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Example 2: Bullish
Figure 2.45: Spotting the pattern in bullish chart
i. The price forms a key low or support level.
ii. Following candles try to break below the low but fail, closing above it.
iii. Confirmation of the pattern happens after the candle closes. It is preferable
to wait for the 'sweep' candle before taking a long position. If the low is tested
again, it may present an opportunity to add to the position.
2.4.12 How to Execute Swing Failure Pattern
It's important to note that not every sweep of a high/low constitutes a Swing
Failure Pattern (SFP). Take into account liquidity considerations and analyse
where retail traders are likely to place their stop losses or be tempted to enter
positions.
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To effectively execute the strategy:
i. Entry: Wait for the candle that sweeps the high/low to close, and enter the
trade accordingly.
ii. Optional Second Entry: If desired, you can consider a second entry based
on the candle that closes below/above the high/low after the initial sweep.
iii. Set your stop loss (SL) at the level of the wick of the 'sweep' candle. You
can either place an order with a predefined SL or manually adjust the SL to a
close above/below the wick.
For setting targets, consider the following options:
Target the last swing low/high as your initial profit target.
Alternatively, target the range high/low, aiming to capture potential price
movement within the range.
Example 1: First entry
Figure 2.46: First entering
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Example 2: Second Entry
Figure 2.47: Second Entry
The second entry remains valid even if the initial Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) is
missed. It carries higher conviction as it indicates that sellers lack real
strength and bids have absorbed all orders, causing the price to move below
the low. This reinforces the notion that the second entry can still be a valid
opportunity.
How to avoid Common Mistakes Traders make in executing SFP
Not every low/high will have significant liquidity resting below/above it, which
means Swing Failure Patterns (SFPs) can be found almost anywhere if you
search diligently. The key is to practise extensively before implementing the
strategy.
Constantly ask yourself whether the setup is obvious or if you are forcing it.
Consider whether there are stop orders resting below a specific low or if
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breakout traders were lured into long positions by a move above a particular
high.
Here are a few tips to enhance your accuracy when trading SFPs:
I. Review the section on key highs to ensure you mark them correctly. Also, be
cautious of dojis, as they often indicate market uncertainty. It's advisable to
avoid trading SFPs based on doji formations.
Figure 2.48: Review the section on key highs
ii. Avoid rushing your setups: Allow price to develop and be patient. It's
perfectly acceptable to have only one trade per week if you maintain a high
success rate. Avoid impulsive trading and execute your trades with
calculated precision.
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Figure 2.49: Avoid rushing your setups
iii. Seek confluence: by considering additional indicators such as volume, RSI
divergences, and moving averages. These can provide added confirmation
and strengthen your conviction in the trade.
Figure 2.50: Seek confluence
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2.5 DEVIATION/FALSE BREAKDOWN
In trading, deviation refers to a divergence or deviation from an established
pattern or trend. It indicates a departure from the expected or normal
behaviour of a particular market or asset.
Deviation can be observed in various aspects of trading, including price
movements, indicators, and market behavior. Here are a few key points about
deviation in trading:
● Price Deviation: Price deviation occurs when the current price of an
asset significantly deviates from its expected or average price based
on historical data or technical analysis. It can be a result of market
sentiment, news events, or other factors that cause a sudden shift in
supply and demand dynamics.
● Indicator Deviation: Deviation can also be observed in trading
indicators such as oscillators or moving averages. For example, if an
oscillator indicator diverges from the price trend, showing a different
pattern or momentum, it indicates a deviation and can potentially
signal a reversal or change in the market direction.
● Standard Deviation: Standard deviation is a statistical measure that
quantifies the amount of variation or dispersion from the average or
mean. In trading, standard deviation is often used to assess market
volatility. Higher standard deviation values indicate greater price
variability and potential trading opportunities.
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● Trading Strategies: Traders may incorporate deviation into their
trading strategies. For instance, mean reversion strategies aim to profit
from price deviations by assuming that prices will eventually return to
their average or mean levels. On the other hand, breakout strategies
seek to capitalise on significant price deviations that indicate potential
trend changes or strong momentum.
Example: Liquidity grab.
Figure 2.51: Liquidity grab
Take a look at the price structure depicted above. It shows a falling wedge
pattern, which typically breaks to the upside. Retail traders may have entered
the market at the lower support level, expecting a breakout to occur.
As you can see, the breakout did happen as anticipated. However, there was
a temporary dip below the support level of the falling wedge.
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But why does the market behave in this manner? Many retail traders tend to
place their stop-loss orders just below the support level. This creates an
opportunity for the market to trigger those stop-loss orders, causing many
traders to get stopped out, even though their prediction of a breakout was
correct.
This is a deliberate move to stop out retail traders and it can occur frequently.
It is referred to as a liquidity grab event, where the stop-loss orders placed by
traders provide liquidity for buyers to enter the market at a lower price (as the
stop-loss orders act as sell orders).
2.6 RECLAIM
reclaim" refers to a situation where the price of an asset moves below a
certain level, but then manages to rise back above that level again. It
signifies a potential reversal of the previous downward movement and
indicates that buyers have regained control.
When an asset price reclaims a level, it suggests that there is renewed
buying interest and support at that level. It can be seen as a bullish sign,
indicating that the buyers are stepping in to defend the price and push
it higher.
Traders often pay close attention to reclaim levels as they can provide
valuable insights into market sentiment and potential trading
opportunities. If a price reclaims a significant level of support or
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resistance, it may signal a potential trend reversal or a continuation of
the existing trend.
Example
Figure 2.52: Reclaim
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Conclusion
Dear Friends,
The aim of this tutorial is to strengthen your fundamentals in trading. If you
read this slowly and with time, you would have mastered it after practising it
a few times.
My aim after the release of this article is to provide cost free and open to use
best trading tutorials which can be used practically to trade, make the money
and also beat the market at times.
Learning how to identify and trade levels is the first step to being a great
trader. This ability alone can make you a profitable trader.
P.S. This is the second chapter of the NEW MENTORSHIP SERIES, we will be
releasing new chapters soon with new examples and more concepts.
Please share the doc if you like it and practise well before the next lesson.
Love,
EmperorBTC
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