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Warehouse Demand Forecasting Exercise

This document contains 3 questions regarding forecasting demand and production quantities from time-series data. Question 1 involves forecasting demand for year 13 using trend line extrapolation and regression. Question 2 involves using a linear regression model to forecast next year's production quantity. Question 3 involves fitting a trigonometric function to seasonal demand data and forecasting demands for the next 9 months.

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elifatlgan25
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14 views3 pages

Warehouse Demand Forecasting Exercise

This document contains 3 questions regarding forecasting demand and production quantities from time-series data. Question 1 involves forecasting demand for year 13 using trend line extrapolation and regression. Question 2 involves using a linear regression model to forecast next year's production quantity. Question 3 involves fitting a trigonometric function to seasonal demand data and forecasting demands for the next 9 months.

Uploaded by

elifatlgan25
Copyright
© All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

IE 312 Facilities Design and Planning Exercise Set # 1

Question # 1

The manager of a warehouse distribution center would like to determine the


demand for items in the center in order to decide on the size of a new layout.
The demand is shown below.
Year Demand (103 units)
1 50.7
2 55.4
3 59.6
4 61.0
5 58.0
6 60.5
7 66.0
8 70.5
9 77.8
10 87.6
11 94.8
12 100.7

a. Draw a trend line by eye for these data.

b. Use a simple regression model to forecast the demand for year 13.
c. Calculate the 95% prediction interval around the forecast.
d. Calculate the correlation coefficient.

1
IE 312 Facilities Design and Planning Exercise Set # 1

Question # 2

The forecast model for production quantities of an item can be expressed by the
following formula where y = production quantity, x = time period in years and
α0 , α1 = constants. The production quantities for ten years are shown below.

x
y=
α0 x − α1

Year Production Quantity (106 units)


1 6.0
2 10.0
3 13.5
4 16.5
5 19.0
6 21.3
7 23.4
8 25.4
9 27.2
10 29.0

a. Determine the production quantity for next year.


b. Determine the coefficient of determination.

2
IE 312 Facilities Design and Planning Exercise Set # 1

Question # 3

The seasonal demands for a product are shown in the table below.

Year Month Demand (units)


1 Jan. 100
Feb. 120
Mar. 140
Apr. 160
May 155
June 150
July 145
Aug. 140
Sept. 135
Oct. 145
Nov. 160
Dec. 200
2 Jan. 210
Feb. 230
Mar. 250

a. Plot the points and draw a trend line by eye.


b. Use a trigonometric function and fit the data by the least-squares method.
c. Determine the coefficient of determination.

d. What are the forecasted demand for the following 9 months?

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