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Health Risk Assessment
Some Questions
• Can CKDU in Sri Lanka be due to heavy pesticide usage?
• Can Kandy air pollution result in health risks to its citizens?
• Can an emission from a industrial facility can adversely
affect the health of the neighbouring people?
• Can the exposure level for a chemical at a work place
result in a certain disease?
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Chemicals Health Impact??
Health Impact Chemicals??
Objectives of this section is to introduce
some basic principles of exposure
health risk assessment
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Exposure Risk Assessment
Hazard Identification
Exposure Assessment Dose Response
Analysis
Risk Characterization
Risk
Management
1. Hazard identification
Determining whether a particular chemical is casually linked
to a particular health effects
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[Link] Identification
• Different pathways-Ingestion, inhalation, contact
• Different organs are affected
• Different effects
– Acute toxicity, chronic toxicity
[Link] Identification – with available info
100 100
Chemical A Chemical B Chemical A
50
% mortality
50 Chemical C
0 0
Dose Dose
Dose response mortality curves
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[Link] Identification- with available info
• Eg acute toxicity levels
Toxicity rating Lethal Dose (mg/kg of body wt)
Nontoxic >15000
Slightly toxic 5000-15000
Moderately toxic 500-5000
Very toxic 50-500
Extremely toxic 5-50
Supertoxic <5
[Link] identification- methods
Gather data through
• Epidemiological Studies
• Control Human Experiments
• Animal Studies
• In Vitro studies
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[Link] identification
Epidemiological studies
With Without
disease disease
Exposed a b
Not
exposed
c d
a a b ad
Re lative risk Odds ratio
c c d bc
a c
Attributable risk
ab cd
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2. Dose response assessment
• Characterizing the relationship between the dose of a
chemical administered or exposed and incidence of an
adverse health effects.
• Many different D-R relationships are possible for any given
agent depending conditions such as carcinogenic vs non-
carcinogenic
• Extrapolating animal test results is an issue
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2. D-R curve for non-carcinogens
RfD-acceptable daily intake
NOAEL – identified as the highest
Response
Actual
Threshold
nonstatistically significant dose tested.
LOAEL
RfD NOAEL LOAEL – lowest dose tested with
statistically significant effect.
Dose (mg/kg day)
Average Daily Dose during the Exposure Period ( mg / kg day )
Hazardous Quotient
RfD
Hazardous Index Hazardous Quotient
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Oral RfDs
Chemical RfD (mg/kg-day)
Acetone 0.100
Arsenic 0.0003
Toluene 0.200
Tetra-chloroethylene 0.010
Chloroform 0.010
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[Link]-response assessment -
Carcinogens
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[Link]-response assessment - Carcinogens
1
Lifetime probability of cancer
Range of interest
0.5
PF = Gradient Dose (mg/kg day)
Incremental life time cancer risk Average daily dose (mg/day)
Potency factor CDI ( mg / kg day )
Chronic daily intake (mg / kg day ) Body weight (kg)
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[Link]-response assessment
Potency factor for carcinogens
Incremental life time cancer risk
Potency factor
Chronic daily intake (mg/kg day)
Chemical category PF oral route PF inhalation
route
Ar A 1.75 50
Benzene A 2.9x10-2 2.9x10-2
B(a)P B2 11.5 6.11
CCl4 B2 0.13 -
Chloroform B2 6.1x10-3 8.1x10-2
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[Link] exposure assessment
Measures or estimates the number of people exposed
and the magnitude, duration, and timing of their
exposure
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3. Human exposure assessment
Assessment process (e.g. air pollutants)
• Estimate the concentration of the pollutants for a
given geographical area
• Estimate how many people breath the air containing
a pollutant at different level or selected level
• Estimate dose
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[Link] exposure assessment
Exposure is affected by
• Duration and frequency
• Microenvironments
• Particle size and the physicochemical makeup of the
pollutant
• Routes of exposure
• Sensitivity of the population
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4. Risk Characterization
• Integration of the above three steps
• Results in an estimation of the magnitude of the public
health problem
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CDI for intermittent exposure
Oral route
Inhalation route
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EXAMPLES
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Example 1
Workers at a factory are exposed to a carcinogenic chemical that
has a potency factor of 0.4 (mg/kg-day)-1. The estimated
concentration of this chemical in air is 0.02 mg/m3. A worker on
average spends 8 h per day in the factory and the average number
of working days per year is 250. If a person weighing 65 kg works
for 20 years in this factory, estimate the incremental life time cancer
risk to this person. The expected life time of the person is 70 years.
The breathing rate of an adult person can be taken as 20 m3/day
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Chronic daily intake (CDI) = Total intake (mg)/[body wt (kg)x lifetime (days)]
Total intake = (volume/hour) x concentration x exposure time
= (20/24)(m3/h)x 0.02(mg/m3) x(20 x 250x8)(h)
= 666.7 mg
Therefore, CDI = 666.7 mg/(65 kg x 365 x70 day)
= 4.01 x 10-4 (mg/kg.d)
Therefore, cancer risk = 0.04x4.01x 10-4
= 16.1x10-6
(16 per million exposed)
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Example 2
Estimate the concentration of chloroform in drinking water
that would result in 10-6 risk for a 70 kg person who drinks 2
L/day throughout his/her entire life time (70y). PF of CF is
6.1 x 10-3 [Link]/mg
CDI = Risk/PF = 10-6/6.1x10-3 = 1.64 x 10-4 (mg/[Link])
But, CDI = C (mg/L) x 2 (L/day)/70 kg
C = 6 x 10-3 mg/L
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Example 3
Suppose drinking water contains 1.0 mg/L of toluene and 0.01 mg/L
tetrachloroethylene (TCE). A 70 kg adult drinks 2 L/day of this water for 10 years.
a. Would the hazard index suggest that this was a safe level of exposure?
b. TCE is a carcinogen with a PF of 5.1x10-2 [Link]/mg. What would be the
carcinogenic risk faced by someone drinking this water?
Data: RfD: Toluene – 0.200 mg/[Link], TCE – 0.01 mg/[Link]
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Example 4
Suppose an industrial facility that emits benzene into the atmosphere is being
proposed for a site near a residential neighbourhood. Air quality model predicts
that 60% of the time, prevailing winds will blow the benzene away from the
neighbourhood, but 40% of the time, the benzene concentration will be 0.01
mg/m3. Estimate the incremental risk to adults in the area if the facility is
allowed to be built. If the acceptable risk is 10-6, should this plant be allowed to
built?
Data: PF of benzene for inhalation 2.9 x 10-2 [Link]/mg; Average weight of a
person 70; expected life time 70 years; Breathing rate 20 m3/day.
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Solution
CDI = 0.01 mg/m3 x 20 m3/day x 350 days/year x 30 yr x 0.4
70 kg x 365 day/yr x 70 yr
= 0.00047 mg/ [Link]
Incremental cancer risk = PF x CDI
= 2.9 x 10-2 [Link]/mg x 0.00047 mg/[Link]
= 1.3 x 10-5
Risk is greater than acceptable level and the plant should not be allowed to built
at the proposed site
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