Exponential Distribution Reliability Formula

Number of failure (n) MTBF (θ) = 𝑂𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒

(θ) =
1
Failure Rate (λ) = Number of failure (n) λ
𝑂𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑇𝑖𝑚𝑒

Euler constant ( 𝑒 ) = 2.718281

Reliability R(t) = 1- Failure Function F(t)

𝑡
R(t) = 𝑒 (−λ𝑡) = 𝑒 −θ
Reliability of product
120% MTBF : 182

100% MTBF : 547

MTBF : 1460
80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
396
120
212
304

485
577
669
761
850
942
31

1215
1034
1126

1307
1399
1491
1580
1672
1764
1
 Weibull Distribution

Why Weibull ?
The most versatile
distribution in Reliability
Engineering because of its
ability to model a variety
distribution
Euler constant ( 𝑒 ) = 2.718281
Betta ( β ) = shape factor

Reliability R(t) = 1- Failure Function F(t)

β 𝑡β
R(t) = 𝑒 (−λ𝑡) = 𝑒 −θ = 1 – F(t)

𝑡 1
( )β = Ln
θ 1−𝐹(𝑡)

1
β Ln t – β Ln θ = Ln ( Ln ) β Ln θ = C
1−𝐹(𝑡)
MX + C = Y Ln θ = C/β
Θ = 𝑒 𝑐/β 2
 Case Study 2: Life Time

Based on survey conducted in 6 refinery plant, boiler leak after certain time in operation (1537, 2190, 2750,
2799, 5118, 6205) days.
1. Calculate the probability of the HP boiler will still running after 10 years in operation ?
2. Base on the shape parameter (β) what is the best maintenance strategy ?

Log natural f(x) boiler

1.5

1 y = 1.9438x - 16.103
R² = 0.9212

0.5

0
7 7.5 8 8.5 9

-0.5

-1

-1.5

-2

-2.5 3
 Case Study 2: Life Time

Based on survey conducted in 6 refinery plant, boiler leak after certain time in operation (1537, 2190, 2750,
2799, 5118, 6205) days.
1. Calculate the probability of the HP boiler will still running after 10 years in operation ?
2. Base on the shape parameter (β) what is the best maintenance strategy ?

Boiler Reliability Expectation

120% F(t) Weibull

100%

R(t) Reliability
99%
98%
96%
95%
92%
90%

100%
87%
84%
81%
77%
74%
70%

80%
66%
62%
58%
55%
51%

60%
47%
44%
40%
37%
34%
31%

40%
28%
25%
23%
20%
18%
16%
14%
13%
11%
10%
20% 9%
7%
6%
6%
5%
4%
0%
0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5 13.5 14.5 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.5 19.5
4
Years